⚠ Growth Rates That Must FallModerate threat

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) — threat to the moat

Palantir's US commercial revenue grew 149% in a quarter, and the company itself warns such growth may not last.

Palantir's own risk factors say it directly: "We may not be able to sustain our revenue growth in the future."1 Growth of 149% in US commercial revenue in the second quarter of 20262 is the kind of rate that arithmetic eventually ends.

US commercial revenue by quarter ($M)306Q2 2025595Q1 2026764Q2 2026Palantir Q1 and Q2 2026 results releases
Each quarter larger, each growth rate harder to repeat.

The guidance itself shows the slowing. The company expects at least $3.424 billion of US commercial revenue in 20263, against $1.465 billion in 20254; after two quarters at $595 million and $764 million56, meeting the guide requires about $2,065 million in the second half7. That is still enormous growth, and it is a slower percentage than the first half.

Slowing growth is not a moat failure. But the valuation, discussed in the root threats, treats this rate as durable, and the company has said it may not be.

Palantir has lived through a slowdown before. Revenue growth was 17% in 20238 and 29% in 20249, before accelerating to 56% in 202510. A company whose growth rate has more than halved once in recent memory can see it halve again.

What to watch is the ratio of growth to customer additions. If revenue growth falls toward the customer-count growth of about a third a year, the expansion within accounts has run its course, and the business becomes a very good software company rather than an exceptional one.

References
  1. ReportedPalantir's own risk factors say it directly: "We may not be able to sustain our revenue growth in the future." Growth of 149% in US commercial revenue in the second quarter of 2026 is the kind of rate that arithmetic eventually ends.
    Palantir Technologies Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1A risk factors: contract terminations, government budgets, sales cycle, AI regulation and the founders' voting control. — FY2025 · publ. 17 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedPalantir's own risk factors say it directly: "We may not be able to sustain our revenue growth in the future." Growth of 149% in US commercial revenue in the second quarter of 2026 is the kind of rate that arithmetic eventually ends.
    Palantir second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue, US commercial and government revenue, deal counts, TCV, US commercial RDV, cash and raised 2026 guidance - second-quarter results: revenue by line, margins, deal counts, contract value, cash and stock pay. — Q2 2026 · publ. 3 August 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe company expects at least $3.424 billion of US commercial revenue in 2026, against $1.465 billion in 2025; after two quarters at $595 million and $764 million, meeting the guide requires about $2,065 million in the second half.
    Palantir second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue, US commercial and government revenue, deal counts, TCV, US commercial RDV, cash and raised 2026 guidance - raised full-year 2026 and third-quarter guidance. — Q2 2026 · publ. 3 August 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe company expects at least $3.424 billion of US commercial revenue in 2026, against $1.465 billion in 2025; after two quarters at $595 million and $764 million, meeting the guide requires about $2,065 million in the second half.
    Palantir fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue, US revenue lines, margins, stock-based compensation, cash flow and initial 2026 guidance - initial full-year 2026 guidance. — FY2025 · publ. 2 February 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe company expects at least $3.424 billion of US commercial revenue in 2026, against $1.465 billion in 2025; after two quarters at $595 million and $764 million, meeting the guide requires about $2,065 million in the second half.
    Palantir first-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - US commercial and US government revenue. — Q1 2026 · publ. 4 May 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe company expects at least $3.424 billion of US commercial revenue in 2026, against $1.465 billion in 2025; after two quarters at $595 million and $764 million, meeting the guide requires about $2,065 million in the second half.
    Palantir second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue, US commercial and government revenue, deal counts, TCV, US commercial RDV, cash and raised 2026 guidance - raised full-year 2026 and third-quarter guidance. — Q2 2026 · publ. 3 August 2026 · source ↗
  7. Moat Explorer calcThe company expects at least $3.424 billion of US commercial revenue in 2026, against $1.465 billion in 2025; after two quarters at $595 million and $764 million, meeting the guide requires about $2,065 million in the second half.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Palantir's filings, results releases and market data ($ millions unless stated). Revenue lines: US commercial 2021 = US revenue 879.16 - US government 678.2 = 200.96, rounded 201.0; international commercial = commercial segment revenue less US commercial: 2021 644.53 - 200.96 = 443.6; 2022 834.1 - 335.1 = 499.0; 2023 1,002.8 - 457.1 = 545.7; 2024 1,295.9 - 702.3 = 593.6; 2025 2,073.2 - 1,465 = 608.2; Q2 2025 450.7 - 306 = 144.7; Q1 2026 (1,719.6 - 945.4) - 595 = 774.2 - 595 = 179.2; Q2 2026 945.4 - 764 = 181.4. International government = government segment revenue less US government: 2021 897.4 - 678.2 = 219.2; 2022 1,071.8 - 826.3 = 245.5; 2023 1,222.2 - 921.2 = 301.0; 2024 1,569.6 - 1,197.9 = 371.7; 2025 2,402.3 - 1,855 = 547.3; Q2 2025 553.0 - 426 = 127.0; Q2 2026 990.0 - 809 = 181.0. US government 2024 = US revenue 1,900.2 - US commercial 702.3 = 1,197.9. Check 2025: 1,465 + 1,855 + 608.2 + 547.3 = 4,475.5. Growth: international commercial 499.0 / 443.6 = +12.5%; 545.7 / 499.0 = +9.4%; 593.6 / 545.7 = +8.8%; 608.2 / 593.6 = +2.5%; 608.2 / 443.6 = +37%. International government 245.5 / 219.2 = +12.0%; 301.0 / 245.5 = +22.6%; 371.7 / 301.0 = +23.5%; 547.3 / 371.7 = +47.2%. US commercial 335.1 / 201.0 = +66.7%; 457.1 / 335.1 = +36.4%; 702.3 / 457.1 = +53.6%; 1,465 / 201.0 = 7.3 times. US government 921.2 / 826.3 = +11.5%; 1,197.9 / 921.2 = +30.0%; 1,855 / 678.2 = 2.7 times. Government segment 2,402.3 / 610.2 = 3.9 times; first half 1,848.4 / 1,039.9 = +77.7%. Revenue abroad Q2 2026 1,935.5 - 1,573.0 = 362.5, Q2 2025 144.7 + 127.0 = 271.7, 362.5 / 271.7 = +33.4%; 2025 4,475.4 - 3,320.0 = 1,155.4; 2024 2,865.5 - 1,900.2 = 965.3; 2022 1,905.9 - 1,161.4 = 744.5. Other income Q2 2026 91.8 / Q2 2025 6.6 = 13.9 times. Rest of world 2025 4,475.4 - 3,320.0 - 427.4 = 728.0. Shares of revenue: US commercial 201.0 / 1,541.9 = 13.0%; 335.1 / 1,905.9 = 17.6%; 457.1 / 2,225.0 = 20.5%; 702.3 / 2,865.5 = 24.5%; 1,465 / 4,475.4 = 32.7%; Q2 2026 764 / 1,935.5 = 39.5%. US government 678.2 / 1,541.9 = 44.0%; 826.3 / 1,905.9 = 43.4%; 921.2 / 2,225.0 = 41.4%; 1,197.9 / 2,865.5 = 41.8%; 1,855 / 4,475.4 = 41.4%; Q2 2026 809 / 1,935.5 = 41.8%. International commercial 443.6 / 1,541.9 = 28.8%; 608.2 / 4,475.4 = 13.6%. International government 547.3 / 4,475.4 = 12.2%. Revenue abroad 1,155.4 / 4,475.4 = 25.8%; Q2 2026 362.5 / 1,935.5 = 18.7%. US commercial share of remaining deal value 6,238 / 13,100 = 47.6%. US commercial share of contract value closed 2,132 / 3,373 = 63.2%. 2026 US commercial guide 3,424 / 8,154 = 42.0%. Customers: top three 2025 0.16 x 4,475.4 = 716; top twenty 20 x 93.9 = 1,878, 1,878 / 4,475.4 = 42.0%; next seventeen 1,878 - 716 = 1,162; all others 4,475.4 - 1,878 = 2,597.4; top twenty June 2026 20 x 124 = 2,480. US commercial customers 653 / 80 = 8.2 times. US commercial contract value Q2 2025 2,132 / 2.53 = 843. Backlog: remaining performance obligations 4.9 / total remaining deal value 13.1 = 37.4%; due within twelve months 4.1 x 0.38 = 1.56 bn (Dec 2025), 4.9 x 0.43 = 2.11 bn (June 2026), 2.11 / 1.56 = 1.35. Costs and margins: research and development / revenue 404.6 / 2,225.0 = 18.2%; 507.9 / 2,865.5 = 17.7%; 557.7 / 4,475.4 = 12.5%; growth 557.7 / 507.9 = +9.8%. Sales and marketing / revenue 887.8 / 2,865.5 = 31.0%; 1,056.9 / 4,475.4 = 23.6%; growth 1,056.9 / 887.8 = +19.0%. Stock-based compensation / revenue 1,270.7 / 1,092.7 = 116%; 778.2 / 1,541.9 = 50%; 564.8 / 1,905.9 = 30%; 475.9 / 2,225.0 = 21%; 691.6 / 2,865.5 = 24%; 684.0 / 4,475.4 = 15.3%; Q2 2026 265.2 / 1,935.5 = 13.7%; growth 265.2 / 160.0 = +66%. Diluted weighted shares 2,565.2 / 1,923.6 = +33%. 2026 adjusted operating margin guide 4,893 / 8,154 = 60.0%. Revenue per employee 4,475.4 / 4,429 = 1.01; 2,225.0 / 3,735 = 0.596; 1.01 / 0.596 = 1.70; employees 4,429 / 3,735 = +18.6%; revenue 4,475.4 / 2,225.0 = 2.01 times. Cumulative losses 2018-2022 580.0 + 579.6 + 1,166.4 + 520.4 + 373.7 = 3,220.1. Effective tax rate 2025 22.7 / 1,657.4 = 1.4%. Interest income 229.2 / 1,657.4 = 13.8%. Guidance: revenue midpoints (8,150 + 8,158) / 2 = 8,154 and (7,182 + 7,198) / 2 = 7,190, raise 8,154 - 7,190 = 964; growth 8,154 / 4,475.4 = +82%; adjusted free cash flow midpoints (4,500 + 4,700) / 2 = 4,600 and (3,925 + 4,125) / 2 = 4,025; first half revenue 3,568.0 / 8,154 = 43.8%; second half 8,154 - 3,568.0 = 4,586; Q3 midpoint (2,160 + 2,164) / 2 = 2,162, 2,162 / 1,935.5 = +11.7% and 2,164 / 1,935.5 = +11.8%; implied Q4 4,586 - 2,162 = 2,424. US commercial second half needed 3,424 - 595 - 764 = 2,065. US commercial guide raise 3,424 - 3,144 = 280. Valuation: market value 462.81 bn / 2026 revenue guide 8.154 bn = 56.8 times; / adjusted free cash flow guide 4.6 bn = 100.6 times; cash 9.2 / 462.81 = 2.0%; 462.81 / 13.35 = 34.7 times. Founders' economic stake (75.3 + 152.1 + 1.0) / 2,402.9 = 9.5% of shares. Market value 462.81 / listing-day 15.67 = 29.5 times; revenue 4,475.4 / 1,092.7 = 4.1 times (2020-2025); employees 4,429 / 2,439 = 1.82 times. Hosting commitments 1,759.0 / cash 9,200 = 19.1%. Army ceiling 10,000 / 10 years = 1,000 a year; 1,000 / 1,855 = 53.9%. Unallocated 557.7 + 684.0 = 1,241.7. Q3 2026 adjusted operating margin guide (1,292 + 1,296) / 2 = 1,294, 1,294 / 2,162 = 59.9%. Adjusted income from operations 2,254.1 / 632.8 = 3.56 times. Top twenty average 124 / 43.6 = 2.84 times. Capital spending 33.9 / cash from operations 2,134.5 = 1.6%. Return on equity 1,625.0 / ((5,003.3 + 7,387.3) / 2) = 1,625.0 / 6,195.3 = 26.2%. United Kingdom 427.4 / 235.3 = +81.6%. International government Q1 2026 (1,848.4 - 990.0) - 687 = 171.4. Q4 2025 revenue 1,406.8 / 827.5 = +70%; Q4 sales and marketing 302.1 / 288.3 = +4.8%. Commercial customers outside the US 870 - 653 = 217. US commercial customers 221 / 143 = +55%. Top three 2025 against 2020: 16% / 25% = 0.64; customers 954 / 139 = 6.9 times - revenue lines, growth, costs and guidance. — 2018-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Palantir's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, results releases, presentations, the Q2 2026 call and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  8. ReportedRevenue growth was 17% in 2023 and 29% in 2024, before accelerating to 56% in 2025.
    Palantir fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - the first profitable year, adjusted margins and US commercial customers. — FY2023 · publ. February 2024 · source ↗
  9. ReportedRevenue growth was 17% in 2023 and 29% in 2024, before accelerating to 56% in 2025.
    Palantir fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — FY2024 · publ. February 2025 · source ↗
  10. ReportedRevenue growth was 17% in 2023 and 29% in 2024, before accelerating to 56% in 2025.
    Palantir fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue, US revenue lines, margins, stock-based compensation, cash flow and initial 2026 guidance - full-year 2025 results: revenue by line, margins, expenses, stock pay and cash flow. — FY2025 · publ. 2 February 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026