Eli LillyWide moat
LLY — overall economic moat
Eli Lilly sells patented medicines, and at the moment it sells the most coveted ones on earth. Of the $65.2 billion collected in 2025 — up 45%, growth no company this size normally prints — the incretin franchise supplied more than half: Mounjaro, the diabetes injection, brought roughly $23 billion, and Zepbound, the same molecule badged for obesity, about $13.5 billion1. Verzenio, the breast-cancer drug, added $5.7 billion; Trulicity, the aging predecessor the new drugs cannibalized, $3 billion; and the long tail of insulins, immunology and neuroscience roughly $20 billion more.
The model is the industry's oldest bargain run at modern scale: spend enormous sums inventing molecules (about $13 billion a year of R&D), win patents that grant a monopoly measured in years, and price accordingly — the gross margin was 83.0% in 2025 and 85.8% in the second quarter of 2026.23 Two-thirds of revenue is American, which is where the pricing power lives and where the political risk does too. The latest quarter shows both faces: revenue up 48% to $23.0 billion on 60% more volume, while realized prices fell 13%, and 36% outside the United States.4
What distinguishes Lilly from the sector is concentration by choice: it bet the company on metabolic disease years before the world wanted GLP-1s, and now spends ~$50 billion on factories to meet a demand measured in hundreds of millions of patients. The wager repeats each decade — the patents expire on schedule, and the pipeline must out-invent the calendar.
Whether the machine defends itself — the patent estate, the incretin franchise, the R&D engine, the manufacturing wall — is the moat question, taken up wall by wall in The Moat below. The expiries and price politics live in the threats; the market's arguments in the insights; and the next decade's molecules — the pill, the triple agonist, Alzheimer's, the Lp(a) long shot — under Future Bets. Each of the five product lines in the revenue chart is taken in turn in The Revenue Lines.
One molecule now earns most of the money. The share rising further makes Lilly more exposed to one patent and one price negotiation.
A patent-protected incretin franchise plus a capacity lead; the patent cliff and oral competition are the long-run caps.
- ReportedOf the $65.2 billion collected in 2025 — up 45%, growth no company this size normally prints — the incretin franchise supplied more than half: Mounjaro, the diabetes injection, brought roughly $23 billion, and Zepbound, the same molecule badged for obesity, about $13.5 billion.Eli Lilly, Form 10-K FY2025 (revenue $65.2B, +45%; Mounjaro ~$23B + Zepbound ~$13.5B — the tirzepatide franchise over $36B combined) — FY2025 · publ. Filed early 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedThe model is the industry's oldest bargain run at modern scale: spend enormous sums inventing molecules (about $13 billion a year of R&D), win patents that grant a monopoly measured in years, and price accordingly — the gross margin was 83.0% in 2025 and 85.8% in the second quarter of 2026.Eli Lilly Form 10-K, FY2025 - revenue $65,179M (Mounjaro $22,965M, Zepbound $13,542M, Verzenio $5,723M); gross margin 83.0% (81.3%); R&D $13,337M; marketing, selling and administrative $11,094M; acquired IPR&D $2,910M; net income $20,640M; price -6% and volume +50% (U.S. price -10%, volume +53%); rebates, discounts and returns deducted $62,135M; capital expenditure $7,841M; operating cash flow $16,813M ($8,818M, $4,240M); U.S. compound patents: Cyramza 2026, Trulicity 2027, Jardiance 2029, Verzenio 2031, Olumiant 2032, Mounjaro/Zepbound 2036, Jaypirca 2037, Retevmo 2038, Inluriyo 2039; HHS selected Trulicity and Verzenio in January 2026 for government-set prices effective 2028; six products above $3 billion were 82% of revenue; three wholesalers each 16%-24% of revenue — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedThe model is the industry's oldest bargain run at modern scale: spend enormous sums inventing molecules (about $13 billion a year of R&D), win patents that grant a monopoly measured in years, and price accordingly — the gross margin was 83.0% in 2025 and 85.8% in the second quarter of 2026.Eli Lilly Form 10-Q, quarter ended 30 June 2026 - revenue $22,974M (+48%): Mounjaro $9,943M (U.S. $4,791M, outside $5,152M), Zepbound $4,928M, Jardiance $1,232M, Trulicity $1,219M, Verzenio $1,474M; oncology $2,570M, immunology $1,417M, neuroscience $429M; volume +60% and price -13% (U.S. +37%/-3%, outside +113%/-36%); gross margin 85.8% (84.3%); R&D $3,819M; MS&A $3,430M; acquired IPR&D $2,776M; special charges $703M; tax rate 23.3% (16.5%); net income $7,095M; diluted EPS $7.94; H1 capital expenditure $5,259M and operating cash flow $16,023M — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedThe latest quarter shows both faces: revenue up 48% to $23.0 billion on 60% more volume, while realized prices fell 13%, and 36% outside the United States.Eli Lilly Form 10-Q, quarter ended 30 June 2026 - revenue $22,974M (+48%): Mounjaro $9,943M (U.S. $4,791M, outside $5,152M), Zepbound $4,928M, Jardiance $1,232M, Trulicity $1,219M, Verzenio $1,474M; oncology $2,570M, immunology $1,417M, neuroscience $429M; volume +60% and price -13% (U.S. +37%/-3%, outside +113%/-36%); gross margin 85.8% (84.3%); R&D $3,819M; MS&A $3,430M; acquired IPR&D $2,776M; special charges $703M; tax rate 23.3% (16.5%); net income $7,095M; diluted EPS $7.94; H1 capital expenditure $5,259M and operating cash flow $16,023M — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗