VerzenioNarrow moat

Eli Lilly (LLY) — moat facet

A $5.7 billion cancer drug that has stopped growing at home, with five years of patent left.

Verzenio is Lilly's largest medicine outside the incretins. It brought in $5,723 million in 2025, up 8%, and $1,474 million in the June 2026 quarter, down 1%.12

Verzenio revenue, U.S. and abroad, second quarter ($M)$929MU.S. Q2 25$845MU.S. Q2 26$560MEx-U.S. Q2 25$629MEx-U.S. Q2 26Lilly Form 10-Q, June 2026
Shrinking at home, still growing abroad.

What is inside the line is abemaciclib, a pill for certain forms of breast cancer.

The history is steady growth built one indication at a time. Revenue was $913 million in 2020, $1,350 million in 2021, $2,484 million in 2022, $3,863 million in 2023 and $5,307 million in 2024.345 In 2025 U.S. revenue grew only 1% while revenue outside the United States grew 20% on volume.6

It is paid for per prescription, largely through specialty channels and payers. Its U.S. price will also be set by the government: HHS selected Verzenio in January 2026 for Medicare negotiation, effective 2028.7

Profitability by product is not disclosed. Growth has now nearly stopped. First-half 2026 revenue was $2,776 million against $2,648 million, up 5%, with the U.S. share falling: $1,551 million against $1,587 million.89

The outlook depends on the patent and on Lilly's newer cancer drugs. Verzenio's U.S. compound patent is estimated to run to 2031.10 Lilly's other oncology products grew from $924 million to $1,096 million in the June quarter.11

This is a narrow moat that is maturing: an established drug in a competitive class with five years of patent left and a government price coming. The number to follow is U.S. Verzenio revenue, $845 million in the June 2026 quarter against $929 million. Continued decline at home would mean the franchise peaked in 2025.

Moat trajectory: Narrowing

U.S. revenue fell to $845M in Q2 2026 from $929M; growth continues only abroad.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
U.S. Verzenio revenue, latest quarter
$845M in Q2 2026, from $929M

Continued decline at home would mean the franchise peaked in 2025, five years before its patent ends.

Source: Lilly Form 10-Q, June 2026 ↗
References
  1. ReportedIt brought in $5,723 million in 2025, up 8%, and $1,474 million in the June 2026 quarter, down 1%.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-K, FY2025 - revenue $65,179M (Mounjaro $22,965M, Zepbound $13,542M, Verzenio $5,723M); gross margin 83.0% (81.3%); R&D $13,337M; marketing, selling and administrative $11,094M; acquired IPR&D $2,910M; net income $20,640M; price -6% and volume +50% (U.S. price -10%, volume +53%); rebates, discounts and returns deducted $62,135M; capital expenditure $7,841M; operating cash flow $16,813M ($8,818M, $4,240M); U.S. compound patents: Cyramza 2026, Trulicity 2027, Jardiance 2029, Verzenio 2031, Olumiant 2032, Mounjaro/Zepbound 2036, Jaypirca 2037, Retevmo 2038, Inluriyo 2039; HHS selected Trulicity and Verzenio in January 2026 for government-set prices effective 2028; six products above $3 billion were 82% of revenue; three wholesalers each 16%-24% of revenue — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIt brought in $5,723 million in 2025, up 8%, and $1,474 million in the June 2026 quarter, down 1%.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-Q, quarter ended 30 June 2026 - revenue $22,974M (+48%): Mounjaro $9,943M (U.S. $4,791M, outside $5,152M), Zepbound $4,928M, Jardiance $1,232M, Trulicity $1,219M, Verzenio $1,474M; oncology $2,570M, immunology $1,417M, neuroscience $429M; volume +60% and price -13% (U.S. +37%/-3%, outside +113%/-36%); gross margin 85.8% (84.3%); R&D $3,819M; MS&A $3,430M; acquired IPR&D $2,776M; special charges $703M; tax rate 23.3% (16.5%); net income $7,095M; diluted EPS $7.94; H1 capital expenditure $5,259M and operating cash flow $16,023M — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedRevenue was $913 million in 2020, $1,350 million in 2021, $2,484 million in 2022, $3,863 million in 2023 and $5,307 million in 2024.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-K, FY2021 - revenue by product 2020-2021 (Trulicity $6,472M, Humalog $2,453M/$2,626M, Alimta $2,061M/$2,330M, COVID-19 antibodies $2,239M/$871M, Basaglar $893M/$1,124M); income statement 2019-2021 (R&D $5,595M/$6,086M/$7,026M, revenue $22,320M/$24,540M/$28,318M); rebates, discounts and returns deducted from sales $18,668M (2020) and $20,106M (2021) — FY2019-FY2021 · publ. February 2022 · source ↗
  4. ReportedRevenue was $913 million in 2020, $1,350 million in 2021, $2,484 million in 2022, $3,863 million in 2023 and $5,307 million in 2024.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-K, FY2023 - revenue by product 2022-2023 (Trulicity $7,440M/$7,133M, Mounjaro $483M/$5,163M, Verzenio $2,484M/$3,863M, Humalog $2,061M/$1,663M, Alimta $928M/$218M, COVID-19 antibodies $2,024M/nil, Zepbound $176M); income statement 2021-2023; price +4% and volume +16% in 2023; rebates deducted $28,398M (2022) and $37,867M (2023); capital expenditure $1,310M/$1,854M/$3,448M — FY2021-FY2023 · publ. February 2024 · source ↗
  5. ReportedRevenue was $913 million in 2020, $1,350 million in 2021, $2,484 million in 2022, $3,863 million in 2023 and $5,307 million in 2024.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-K, FY2024 - revenue by product 2023-2024 (Mounjaro $11,540M, Zepbound $4,926M, Trulicity $5,254M, Verzenio $5,307M, Humalog $2,325M, Basaglar $677M); price +5% and volume +27% in 2024 (U.S. price +8%); rebates deducted $41,452M — FY2023-FY2024 · publ. February 2025 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIn 2025 U.S. revenue grew only 1% while revenue outside the United States grew 20% on volume.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-K, FY2025 - revenue $65,179M (Mounjaro $22,965M, Zepbound $13,542M, Verzenio $5,723M); gross margin 83.0% (81.3%); R&D $13,337M; marketing, selling and administrative $11,094M; acquired IPR&D $2,910M; net income $20,640M; price -6% and volume +50% (U.S. price -10%, volume +53%); rebates, discounts and returns deducted $62,135M; capital expenditure $7,841M; operating cash flow $16,813M ($8,818M, $4,240M); U.S. compound patents: Cyramza 2026, Trulicity 2027, Jardiance 2029, Verzenio 2031, Olumiant 2032, Mounjaro/Zepbound 2036, Jaypirca 2037, Retevmo 2038, Inluriyo 2039; HHS selected Trulicity and Verzenio in January 2026 for government-set prices effective 2028; six products above $3 billion were 82% of revenue; three wholesalers each 16%-24% of revenue — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedIts U.S. price will also be set by the government: HHS selected Verzenio in January 2026 for Medicare negotiation, effective 2028.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-K, FY2025 - revenue $65,179M (Mounjaro $22,965M, Zepbound $13,542M, Verzenio $5,723M); gross margin 83.0% (81.3%); R&D $13,337M; marketing, selling and administrative $11,094M; acquired IPR&D $2,910M; net income $20,640M; price -6% and volume +50% (U.S. price -10%, volume +53%); rebates, discounts and returns deducted $62,135M; capital expenditure $7,841M; operating cash flow $16,813M ($8,818M, $4,240M); U.S. compound patents: Cyramza 2026, Trulicity 2027, Jardiance 2029, Verzenio 2031, Olumiant 2032, Mounjaro/Zepbound 2036, Jaypirca 2037, Retevmo 2038, Inluriyo 2039; HHS selected Trulicity and Verzenio in January 2026 for government-set prices effective 2028; six products above $3 billion were 82% of revenue; three wholesalers each 16%-24% of revenue — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedFirst-half 2026 revenue was $2,776 million against $2,648 million, up 5%, with the U.S. share falling: $1,551 million against $1,587 million.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-Q, quarter ended 30 June 2026 - revenue $22,974M (+48%): Mounjaro $9,943M (U.S. $4,791M, outside $5,152M), Zepbound $4,928M, Jardiance $1,232M, Trulicity $1,219M, Verzenio $1,474M; oncology $2,570M, immunology $1,417M, neuroscience $429M; volume +60% and price -13% (U.S. +37%/-3%, outside +113%/-36%); gross margin 85.8% (84.3%); R&D $3,819M; MS&A $3,430M; acquired IPR&D $2,776M; special charges $703M; tax rate 23.3% (16.5%); net income $7,095M; diluted EPS $7.94; H1 capital expenditure $5,259M and operating cash flow $16,023M — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  9. Moat Explorer calcFirst-half 2026 revenue was $2,776 million against $2,648 million, up 5%, with the U.S. share falling: $1,551 million against $1,587 million.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Lilly's Forms 10-K FY2021-FY2025 and the Q2 2026 10-Q: tirzepatide (Mounjaro + Zepbound) $36,507M in 2025, $14,871M in Q2 2026 ($8,580M), trailing twelve months $49,466M; trailing revenue $79,666M; margins and shares as stated — 2021 to Q2 2026 · publ. 2026-09-23 · source ↗
  10. ReportedVerzenio's U.S. compound patent is estimated to run to 2031.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-K, FY2025 - revenue $65,179M (Mounjaro $22,965M, Zepbound $13,542M, Verzenio $5,723M); gross margin 83.0% (81.3%); R&D $13,337M; marketing, selling and administrative $11,094M; acquired IPR&D $2,910M; net income $20,640M; price -6% and volume +50% (U.S. price -10%, volume +53%); rebates, discounts and returns deducted $62,135M; capital expenditure $7,841M; operating cash flow $16,813M ($8,818M, $4,240M); U.S. compound patents: Cyramza 2026, Trulicity 2027, Jardiance 2029, Verzenio 2031, Olumiant 2032, Mounjaro/Zepbound 2036, Jaypirca 2037, Retevmo 2038, Inluriyo 2039; HHS selected Trulicity and Verzenio in January 2026 for government-set prices effective 2028; six products above $3 billion were 82% of revenue; three wholesalers each 16%-24% of revenue — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedLilly's other oncology products grew from $924 million to $1,096 million in the June quarter.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-Q, quarter ended 30 June 2026 - revenue $22,974M (+48%): Mounjaro $9,943M (U.S. $4,791M, outside $5,152M), Zepbound $4,928M, Jardiance $1,232M, Trulicity $1,219M, Verzenio $1,474M; oncology $2,570M, immunology $1,417M, neuroscience $429M; volume +60% and price -13% (U.S. +37%/-3%, outside +113%/-36%); gross margin 85.8% (84.3%); R&D $3,819M; MS&A $3,430M; acquired IPR&D $2,776M; special charges $703M; tax rate 23.3% (16.5%); net income $7,095M; diluted EPS $7.94; H1 capital expenditure $5,259M and operating cash flow $16,023M — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026