Mitsui & Co.Narrow moat

8031 — overall economic moat

Investment snapshot
Narrow moat→ Holding steadyConfidenceMediumValuationFair
Strongest advantageSixty years of hard-to-replicate stakes in Pilbara iron ore and LNG, plus Penske and IHH, held to a 10% hurdle
Greatest threatHalf the profit tied to iron ore and energy prices, Russian LNG exposure and ROE falling three years running
Key metricROE against the plan's 12% target (10.2%)
Verdict: Mitsui is the most profitable of Japan's trading houses because it owns old stakes in iron ore and LNG that nobody could assemble today, and it manages them like an investor: a 10% hurdle, asset sales above plan and half its cash returned. The moat is narrow because none of those stakes sets a price, and ROE has fallen from 18.9% to 10.2% while it builds Rhodes Ridge and Mozambique. At about 16 times earnings, after a 15% fall since March, it is priced for the commodity cycle rather than the portfolio.
📈 8031 valuation, revenue & earnings — P/E, P/S, revenue, EPS →

Mitsui & Co. is a Japanese trading house that makes most of its money as an investor. It has 278 consolidated subsidiaries and 168 equity-method investees, 120 offices in 62 countries and regions1, and 55,463 employees in the group2. In the year to March 2026 its revenue was ¥13,995.2 billion and its net profit ¥834.0 billion, down 7.4%3; the year before it earned ¥900.3 billion and the year before that ¥1,063.7 billion4.

Net profit by segment, year to March 2026 (¥ bn)Mineral & Metal Resources — 30%Machinery & Infrastructure — 27%Energy — 20%Chemicals — 8%Innovation & Corp. Dev. — 6%Lifestyle and Iron & Steel — 9%Innovation & Corp. Dev. includes all other and adjustments; Mitsui results
Iron ore, machinery and energy make three-quarters of the profit.

The revenue is mostly trading flow; the profit mostly comes from stakes. Its share of the profit of equity-method investees was ¥447.4 billion and its dividend income ¥178.7 billion, together 57.6% of profit before tax567. The largest pieces are iron ore mines in Australia run by Rio Tinto and BHP, which with a stake in Vale produced about ¥260 billion8; LNG projects in eight countries, about ¥135 billion9; and a mobility business built around Penske in the United States, about ¥180 billion10. Ninety per cent of profit is earned outside Japan11.

The company was incorporated in July 1947 as Daiichi Bussan, renamed Mitsui & Co. in 195912, and began building the positions that still define it in the 1960s and 1970s: Robe River in 1965, Mount Newman ore in 1966, Brazilian iron ore in 1971 and Abu Dhabi LNG the same year13. Its one net loss in the past decade, ¥83.4 billion in the year to March 2016, came from write-downs on those kinds of assets14.

It is valued at about ¥14.63 trillion15, about 15.75 times trailing earnings16, and Berkshire Hathaway's National Indemnity has been its largest shareholder since 2025, with 10.12% at the time17.

The shareholder base has changed as the returns have. Mitsui had 430,521 shareholders at March 2026 against 304,536 four years earlier18, and its five-year total shareholder return was 554.4% against 179.0% for TOPIX19. The parent company itself is small: 5,333 employees with an average age of 42.020. Most of the work of running the businesses happens in the subsidiaries and investees.

The balance sheet grew by about ¥4.0 trillion in the latest year, to total assets of ¥20,821.5 billion, and shareholders' equity reached ¥8,767.7 billion, an equity ratio of 42.1%21. Net interest-bearing debt was ¥4,139.0 billion22. Book value per share was ¥3,093.5623, and the shares trade at about 1.58 times it24.

The moat is narrow: positions no one can assemble again, in commodities whose prices Mitsui does not set. The number that would falsify the thesis is return on equity against the 12% the company is targeting25. It was 10.2% in the latest year, down from 18.9% three years earlier26; a further fall while Rhodes Ridge and Mozambique are built would say the portfolio is growing faster than its returns.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Revenue, and where it comes from
¥13,995.2bn; net profit ¥834.0bn

Revenue is trading flow; half of profit is iron ore and energy. Watch ROE against the 12% target.

Source: Mitsui & Co. results, year to March 2026 ↗
Moat scorecardHow ratings work →
Switching costs4/10
Network effects2/10
Pricing power3/10
Hard to replicate8/10
Disruption resistance5/10
Overall durability6/10

Replication scores highest because the iron ore and LNG stakes date from the 1960s and 1970s and could not be bought today at their cost, as Rhodes Ridge's $5.3 billion price shows. Durability is middling: the portfolio has produced profit in every year but one in the last decade, but half of it depends on commodity prices. Pricing power is weak; Mitsui is a minority partner selling commodities at world prices. Switching costs exist in contracted power, gas distribution and truck leasing, not in the resource businesses. Network effects are weak.

Dig deeper
DIG DEEPER 01
The Revenue Lines
Three of Mitsui's seven segments earn three-quarters of its profit, and two of them are commodities.
DIG DEEPER 02
The Moat
Mitsui owns sixty years' worth of stakes in iron ore and LNG that no one can assemble again, and none of them sets a price.
DIG DEEPER 03
Competitors
Mitsui earns the most of Japan's trading houses and is valued third, because the market discounts profit that comes from iron ore.
DIG DEEPER 04
Major Clients
Mitsui has no customer worth naming; the companies that pay it are mostly the ones it owns stakes in.
✦ Future bets — beyond today's moat
✦ FUTURE BET 01
The Future Bets
Mitsui is spending on iron ore and LNG that will not produce until the end of the decade, and promising 12% returns before they do.
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
Half the Profit Is Iron Ore and Energy
Half of Mitsui's profit depends on iron ore and energy prices, and the new investments add to that half.
⚠ THREAT 02
Russia: Two LNG Projects It Cannot Leave
Mitsui is locked into two Russian LNG projects, one marked down and one backed by guarantees it is provisioning against.
◆ What the market may be missing
◆ THE VARIANT VIEW
What the Market Isn't Pricing In
Mitsui's shares fell 15% after a record quarter, while its largest shareholder sits on 2.5 times its cost.
◆ THE VARIANT VIEW
Inside the Latest Quarter (April-June 2026)
Mitsui's record first quarter was a fifth one-off gains and four-fifths growth in its main businesses.
References
  1. ReportedIt has 278 consolidated subsidiaries and 168 equity-method investees, 120 offices in 62 countries and regions, and 55,463 employees in the group.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, At a Glance - consolidated subsidiaries and equity-method investees, offices, share of profit by region and market positions. — 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIt has 278 consolidated subsidiaries and 168 equity-method investees, 120 offices in 62 countries and regions, and 55,463 employees in the group.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, data section - the five-year financial data: market capitalisation, PER, PBR, ROE, net debt, free cash flow, asset recycling and payout. — FY to March 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIn the year to March 2026 its revenue was ¥13,995.2 billion and its net profit ¥834.0 billion, down 7.4%; the year before it earned ¥900.3 billion and the year before that ¥1,063.7 billion.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the consolidated statements of income, financial position and cash flows, segment information, dividends, buybacks and the forecast for the year to March 2027. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIn the year to March 2026 its revenue was ¥13,995.2 billion and its net profit ¥834.0 billion, down 7.4%; the year before it earned ¥900.3 billion and the year before that ¥1,063.7 billion.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2025 (IFRS) - including segment information for the years to March 2025 and 2024. — FY to March 2025 · publ. May 2025 · source ↗
  5. ReportedIts share of the profit of equity-method investees was ¥447.4 billion and its dividend income ¥178.7 billion, together 57.6% of profit before tax.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2025 (IFRS) - including segment information for the years to March 2025 and 2024. — FY to March 2025 · publ. May 2025 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIts share of the profit of equity-method investees was ¥447.4 billion and its dividend income ¥178.7 billion, together 57.6% of profit before tax.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the consolidated statements of income, financial position and cash flows, segment information, dividends, buybacks and the forecast for the year to March 2027. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  7. Moat Explorer calcIts share of the profit of equity-method investees was ¥447.4 billion and its dividend income ¥178.7 billion, together 57.6% of profit before tax.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Mitsui & Co.'s reported figures. Resource share of profit: (253.6 + 164.2) / 834.0 = 50.1% (2026), 51.0% (2025), 58.0% (2024). Iron ore business share: 262.2 / 834.0 = 31.4%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net income 833,971 - 191,647 + 294,052 = 936,376; revenue 13,995.2 - 3,299.9 + 4,347.6 = 15,042.9; EPS 291.12 - 66.68 + 103.73 = 328.17. P/S at March year-ends: 5,340.8 / 11,757.6 = 0.45 (2022), 0.44 (2023), 0.80 (2024), 0.55 (2025), 16,969.0 / 13,995.2 = 1.21 (2026). Share price change since March: 5,033 / 5,959 - 1 = -15.5%. Shares issued, split-adjusted: 3,284.7 million (March 2022) to 2,864.7 million (March 2026) = -12.8%. Equity-method profit and dividend income: 447.4 + 178.7 = 626.1, 57.6% of profit before tax of 1,087.1. Segment profit over segment assets, year to March 2026: Mineral & Metal Resources 253.6 / 4,313.2 = 5.9%; Machinery & Infrastructure 225.9 / 4,427.3 = 5.1%; Energy 164.2 / 4,181.4 = 3.9%; Chemicals 67.5 / 2,241.8 = 3.0%; Lifestyle 52.0 / 3,091.1 = 1.7%; Innovation & Corporate Development 59.0 / 2,655.3 = 2.2%; Iron & Steel Products 18.9 / 862.4 = 2.2%. Innovation & Corporate Development including other and adjustments: 59.0 + 20.7 - 27.7 = 51.9 (2026), 87.3 - 42.8 + 21.5 = 65.9 (2025), 53.8 + 5.6 - 5.9 = 53.6 (2024). A $10 move in iron ore: 10 x ¥3.0 billion = ¥30 billion, 3.3% of the ¥920 billion forecast. Berkshire's market value over cost: 8,785 / 3,490 = 2.52 times; dividend on cost 201 / 3,490 = 5.8%. Progress against guidance: 294.1 / 920.0 = 32.0%. Profit growth since the year to March 2016's loss: from -83.4 to 834.0. Resource profits: 335.1 + 281.7 = 616.8 (2024) and 253.6 + 164.2 = 417.8 (2026). Three largest segments: (253.6 + 225.9 + 164.2) / 841.1 = 76.5%. Energy Trading Singapore: 1,986,458 / 13,995,222 = 14.2%. First-quarter one-time gains: (44.2 + 10.2) / 294.1 = 18.5%. Innovation & Corporate Development first quarter against plan: 65.2 / 70.0 = 93%. Arctic LNG 2 provision change: 66,109 - 57,759 = 8,350. A $1 move in US gas: 10 x ¥1.2 billion = ¥12 billion. Vale dividend: 35.0 / 59.6 - 1 = -41%; 43.5 / 35.0 - 1 = +24%. Truck leasing holding: 19.8 / 28.4 - 1 = -30%; 18.8 / 19.8 - 1 = -5%. Profit to the 2029 target: 1,100 / 834.0 = 1.32; to the 2031 vision: 1,400 / 834.0 = 1.68. Berkshire value over cost 2.52 and dividend yield on cost 5.8%. Ministers North at full production: 7% x 20 Mt = 1.4 Mt. Mainstream charges: 15.1 + 15.9 + 28.05 = 59.05. Vale dividend fall against segment profit: (59.6 - 35.0) / 285.4 = 8.6%. Mitsui against smaller houses: profit 936.4 / 619.1 = 1.51 and 936.4 / 575.9 = 1.63; value 14.63 / 8.51 = 1.72 and 14.63 / 8.09 = 1.81. Trailing P/E: 14.63 trillion / 936.4 billion = 15.6; P/S 14.63 / 15.043 = 0.97. Dividend growth: 115 / 27.5 = 4.2 times. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Mitsui & Co.'s results, integrated report, securities report and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  8. ReportedThe largest pieces are iron ore mines in Australia run by Rio Tinto and BHP, which with a stake in Vale produced about ¥260 billion; LNG projects in eight countries, about ¥135 billion; and a mobility business built around Penske in the United States, about ¥180 billion.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, Our Edge - profit of the iron ore, LNG, mobility and protein and healthcare businesses, the iron ore and LNG growth paths, IHH's hospitals and market positions. — 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedThe largest pieces are iron ore mines in Australia run by Rio Tinto and BHP, which with a stake in Vale produced about ¥260 billion; LNG projects in eight countries, about ¥135 billion; and a mobility business built around Penske in the United States, about ¥180 billion.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, Our Edge - profit of the iron ore, LNG, mobility and protein and healthcare businesses, the iron ore and LNG growth paths, IHH's hospitals and market positions. — 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedThe largest pieces are iron ore mines in Australia run by Rio Tinto and BHP, which with a stake in Vale produced about ¥260 billion; LNG projects in eight countries, about ¥135 billion; and a mobility business built around Penske in the United States, about ¥180 billion.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, Our Edge - profit of the iron ore, LNG, mobility and protein and healthcare businesses, the iron ore and LNG growth paths, IHH's hospitals and market positions. — 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedNinety per cent of profit is earned outside Japan.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, At a Glance - consolidated subsidiaries and equity-method investees, offices, share of profit by region and market positions. — 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedThe company was incorporated in July 1947 as Daiichi Bussan, renamed Mitsui & Co. in 1959, and began building the positions that still define it in the 1960s and 1970s: Robe River in 1965, Mount Newman ore in 1966, Brazilian iron ore in 1971 and Abu Dhabi LNG the same year.
    Mitsui & Co., Annual Securities Report for the year to March 2026 (English) - company history, employees, share price history, total shareholder return, equity production, the revenue of the Singapore trading subsidiary, competition and the Arctic LNG 2 guarantees. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 12 August 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedThe company was incorporated in July 1947 as Daiichi Bussan, renamed Mitsui & Co. in 1959, and began building the positions that still define it in the 1960s and 1970s: Robe River in 1965, Mount Newman ore in 1966, Brazilian iron ore in 1971 and Abu Dhabi LNG the same year.
    Mitsui & Co., Annual Securities Report for the year to March 2026 (English) - company history, employees, share price history, total shareholder return, equity production, the revenue of the Singapore trading subsidiary, competition and the Arctic LNG 2 guarantees. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 12 August 2026 · source ↗
  14. ReportedIts one net loss in the past decade, ¥83.4 billion in the year to March 2016, came from write-downs on those kinds of assets.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2016 - the net loss and the impairments in Chilean copper, Valepar, Browse LNG and power. — FY to March 2016 · publ. May 2016 · source ↗
  15. ReportedIt is valued at about ¥14.63 trillion, about 15.75 times trailing earnings, and Berkshire Hathaway's National Indemnity has been its largest shareholder since 2025, with 10.12% at the time.
    Mitsui & Co. (TYO: 8031) market data - share price, market capitalisation 14.63T yen, trailing revenue and net income, P/E, forward P/E, dividend, analysts' target, September 2026. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
  16. ReportedIt is valued at about ¥14.63 trillion, about 15.75 times trailing earnings, and Berkshire Hathaway's National Indemnity has been its largest shareholder since 2025, with 10.12% at the time.
    Mitsui & Co. (TYO: 8031) market data - share price, market capitalisation 14.63T yen, trailing revenue and net income, P/E, forward P/E, dividend, analysts' target, September 2026. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
  17. ReportedIt is valued at about ¥14.63 trillion, about 15.75 times trailing earnings, and Berkshire Hathaway's National Indemnity has been its largest shareholder since 2025, with 10.12% at the time.
    Mitsui & Co. release, 9 October 2025 - National Indemnity holds 292,044,900 shares, 10.12%, and has become the largest shareholder. — October 2025 · publ. 9 October 2025 · source ↗
  18. ReportedMitsui had 430,521 shareholders at March 2026 against 304,536 four years earlier, and its five-year total shareholder return was 554.4% against 179.0% for TOPIX.
    Mitsui & Co., share information - shares issued and number of shareholders. — 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  19. ReportedMitsui had 430,521 shareholders at March 2026 against 304,536 four years earlier, and its five-year total shareholder return was 554.4% against 179.0% for TOPIX.
    Mitsui & Co., Annual Securities Report for the year to March 2026 (English) - company history, employees, share price history, total shareholder return, equity production, the revenue of the Singapore trading subsidiary, competition and the Arctic LNG 2 guarantees. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 12 August 2026 · source ↗
  20. ReportedThe parent company itself is small: 5,333 employees with an average age of 42.0.
    Mitsui & Co., Annual Securities Report for the year to March 2026 (English) - company history, employees, share price history, total shareholder return, equity production, the revenue of the Singapore trading subsidiary, competition and the Arctic LNG 2 guarantees. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 12 August 2026 · source ↗
  21. ReportedThe balance sheet grew by about ¥4.0 trillion in the latest year, to total assets of ¥20,821.5 billion, and shareholders' equity reached ¥8,767.7 billion, an equity ratio of 42.1%.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the consolidated statements of income, financial position and cash flows, segment information, dividends, buybacks and the forecast for the year to March 2027. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  22. ReportedNet interest-bearing debt was ¥4,139.0 billion.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, data section - results by operating segment: gross profit, equity-method profit, dividend income, core operating cash flow and total assets. — FY to March 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  23. ReportedBook value per share was ¥3,093.56, and the shares trade at about 1.58 times it.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, data section - results by operating segment: gross profit, equity-method profit, dividend income, core operating cash flow and total assets. — FY to March 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  24. ReportedBook value per share was ¥3,093.56, and the shares trade at about 1.58 times it.
    Mitsui & Co. (TYO: 8031) statistics - price-to-book, price-to-sales and enterprise value. — September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  25. ReportedThe number that would falsify the thesis is return on equity against the 12% the company is targeting.
    Mitsui & Co., notice of the Medium-term Management Plan 2029 - core operating cash flow of ¥1.2 trillion, profit of ¥1.1 trillion and ROE of 12%, and the dividend floor of ¥140. — FY to March 2027-2029 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  26. ReportedIt was 10.2% in the latest year, down from 18.9% three years earlier; a further fall while Rhodes Ridge and Mozambique are built would say the portfolio is growing faster than its returns.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, data section - results by operating segment: gross profit, equity-method profit, dividend income, core operating cash flow and total assets. — FY to March 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026