⚠ The Strait of HormuzModerate threat

Mitsui & Co. (8031) — threat to the moat

Three of Mitsui's LNG projects sit inside the Gulf, and the strait out of it was restricted this year.

Mitsui's results for the latest year note transit restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, stemming from a deterioration in the Middle East, that led to disruptions in the supply of energy1. At the results meeting it said none of its LNG vessels had been unable to exit the strait2.

Energy segment profit, April-June (¥ bn)20.22025, restated34.42026New segment basis; Mitsui results, April-June 2026
So far the disruption has not shown up in profit.

Three of its dividend projects, in Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Oman3, are in the Gulf. In the first quarter of the current year the company said its methanol business had been unable to ship products from the Middle East, and that its US operations had more than offset the loss4.

A trading book is exposed to disruption in two ways: supply that cannot be delivered, and prices that move faster than hedges.

The company's oil price sensitivity has a lag structure that affects how quickly any disruption reaches profit: only about 5% of oil-linked income moves with no lag, about 40% with a lag of one to three months, and the rest later5. A shock in one quarter shows up in the results of later ones.

The measure is the disruption's effect on energy profit. So far the segment's first-quarter profit rose to ¥34.4 billion from ¥20.2 billion6; a fall would show the strait mattering.

References
  1. ReportedMitsui's results for the latest year note transit restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, stemming from a deterioration in the Middle East, that led to disruptions in the supply of energy.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the JA Mitsui Leasing and Mainstream losses, the Russian LNG exposure, the Strait of Hormuz and the sensitivities. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedAt the results meeting it said none of its LNG vessels had been unable to exit the strait.
    Mitsui & Co., Q&A of the results meeting for the year to March 2026 - the Management Allocation, the 2030 vision and an analyst's question on the ROE target. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThree of its dividend projects, in Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Oman, are in the Gulf.
    Mitsui & Co., results presentation for the year to March 2026 - producing assets with partners and stakes, LNG projects, affiliates and power contracts. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIn the first quarter of the current year the company said its methanol business had been unable to ship products from the Middle East, and that its US operations had more than offset the loss.
    Mitsui & Co., Q&A of the first-quarter results meeting, August 2026 - including the possibility of an upward revision and the Middle East methanol effect. — April-June 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe company's oil price sensitivity has a lag structure that affects how quickly any disruption reaches profit: only about 5% of oil-linked income moves with no lag, about 40% with a lag of one to three months, and the rest later.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the JA Mitsui Leasing and Mainstream losses, the Russian LNG exposure, the Strait of Hormuz and the sensitivities. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedSo far the segment's first-quarter profit rose to ¥34.4 billion from ¥20.2 billion; a fall would show the strait mattering.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the three months ended June 30, 2026 (IFRS) - revenue, profit, segment results on the new basis, core operating cash flow and the balance sheet. — April-June 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026