⚠ Half the Profit Is Iron Ore and EnergyModerate threat

Mitsui & Co. (8031) — threat to the moat

Half of Mitsui's profit depends on iron ore and energy prices, and the new investments add to that half.

Mitsui's two resource segments, Mineral & Metal Resources and Energy, produced 58.0% of net profit in the year to March 2024, 51.0% in 2025 and 50.1% in 20261. The share has fallen, but mainly because resource profits fell, from ¥616.8 billion to ¥417.8 billion23.

Resource share of net profit (%, years to March)58.0202451.0202550.12026Mineral & Metal Resources plus Energy over net profit; Moat Explorer calculation
Falling, mostly because resource profits fell.

That is the central risk of the company. A commodity downturn does not merely slow Mitsui; it removes profit directly, and it can produce losses. In the year to March 2016, impairments on Chilean copper, a loss at Valepar, the Browse LNG write-down and one-off charges in power produced a net loss of ¥83.4 billion4, Mitsui's only loss in the period. The Acrux copper investment alone lost ¥96.6 billion5.

The published sensitivities show the day-to-day exposure: ¥3.0 billion per dollar of iron ore, ¥0.9 billion per dollar of oil, ¥1.2 billion per ten cents of US gas6. They do not show the impairment risk, which arrives when prices stay low long enough to change the long-term assumptions.

Mitsui's response is diversification into mobility, infrastructure and healthcare, and the non-resource share has grown. But the largest new investments, Rhodes Ridge and Mozambique, add to resources.

The last time prices fell hard, the effect went beyond the income statement. The dividend per share was cut from ¥32 to ¥27.5, on the split-adjusted basis, after the loss year7. Every increase since has been built on the recovery.

The number that tests this threat is the resource share of profit. Below 50% with resource profits stable would show diversification; below 50% because resource profits fell would show the risk arriving.

The number that tests this threat
Moat Explorer calc
Resource share of net profit
50.1% (58.0% two years earlier)

The share of profit exposed to commodity prices; watch whether it falls because the rest grows or because resources shrink.

How it's calculated: Arithmetic on figures reported in Mitsui & Co.'s results, integrated report, securities report and market data; operands shown in the source line.
Source: Moat Explorer calculation from Mitsui & Co.'s filings ↗
References
  1. Moat Explorer calcMitsui's two resource segments, Mineral & Metal Resources and Energy, produced 58.0% of net profit in the year to March 2024, 51.0% in 2025 and 50.1% in 2026.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Mitsui & Co.'s reported figures. Resource share of profit: (253.6 + 164.2) / 834.0 = 50.1% (2026), 51.0% (2025), 58.0% (2024). Iron ore business share: 262.2 / 834.0 = 31.4%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net income 833,971 - 191,647 + 294,052 = 936,376; revenue 13,995.2 - 3,299.9 + 4,347.6 = 15,042.9; EPS 291.12 - 66.68 + 103.73 = 328.17. P/S at March year-ends: 5,340.8 / 11,757.6 = 0.45 (2022), 0.44 (2023), 0.80 (2024), 0.55 (2025), 16,969.0 / 13,995.2 = 1.21 (2026). Share price change since March: 5,033 / 5,959 - 1 = -15.5%. Shares issued, split-adjusted: 3,284.7 million (March 2022) to 2,864.7 million (March 2026) = -12.8%. Equity-method profit and dividend income: 447.4 + 178.7 = 626.1, 57.6% of profit before tax of 1,087.1. Segment profit over segment assets, year to March 2026: Mineral & Metal Resources 253.6 / 4,313.2 = 5.9%; Machinery & Infrastructure 225.9 / 4,427.3 = 5.1%; Energy 164.2 / 4,181.4 = 3.9%; Chemicals 67.5 / 2,241.8 = 3.0%; Lifestyle 52.0 / 3,091.1 = 1.7%; Innovation & Corporate Development 59.0 / 2,655.3 = 2.2%; Iron & Steel Products 18.9 / 862.4 = 2.2%. Innovation & Corporate Development including other and adjustments: 59.0 + 20.7 - 27.7 = 51.9 (2026), 87.3 - 42.8 + 21.5 = 65.9 (2025), 53.8 + 5.6 - 5.9 = 53.6 (2024). A $10 move in iron ore: 10 x ¥3.0 billion = ¥30 billion, 3.3% of the ¥920 billion forecast. Berkshire's market value over cost: 8,785 / 3,490 = 2.52 times; dividend on cost 201 / 3,490 = 5.8%. Progress against guidance: 294.1 / 920.0 = 32.0%. Profit growth since the year to March 2016's loss: from -83.4 to 834.0. Resource profits: 335.1 + 281.7 = 616.8 (2024) and 253.6 + 164.2 = 417.8 (2026). Three largest segments: (253.6 + 225.9 + 164.2) / 841.1 = 76.5%. Energy Trading Singapore: 1,986,458 / 13,995,222 = 14.2%. First-quarter one-time gains: (44.2 + 10.2) / 294.1 = 18.5%. Innovation & Corporate Development first quarter against plan: 65.2 / 70.0 = 93%. Arctic LNG 2 provision change: 66,109 - 57,759 = 8,350. A $1 move in US gas: 10 x ¥1.2 billion = ¥12 billion. Vale dividend: 35.0 / 59.6 - 1 = -41%; 43.5 / 35.0 - 1 = +24%. Truck leasing holding: 19.8 / 28.4 - 1 = -30%; 18.8 / 19.8 - 1 = -5%. Profit to the 2029 target: 1,100 / 834.0 = 1.32; to the 2031 vision: 1,400 / 834.0 = 1.68. Berkshire value over cost 2.52 and dividend yield on cost 5.8%. Ministers North at full production: 7% x 20 Mt = 1.4 Mt. Mainstream charges: 15.1 + 15.9 + 28.05 = 59.05. Vale dividend fall against segment profit: (59.6 - 35.0) / 285.4 = 8.6%. Mitsui against smaller houses: profit 936.4 / 619.1 = 1.51 and 936.4 / 575.9 = 1.63; value 14.63 / 8.51 = 1.72 and 14.63 / 8.09 = 1.81. Trailing P/E: 14.63 trillion / 936.4 billion = 15.6; P/S 14.63 / 15.043 = 0.97. Dividend growth: 115 / 27.5 = 4.2 times. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Mitsui & Co.'s results, integrated report, securities report and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  2. ReportedThe share has fallen, but mainly because resource profits fell, from ¥616.8 billion to ¥417.8 billion.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2025 (IFRS) - including segment information for the years to March 2025 and 2024. — FY to March 2025 · publ. May 2025 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe share has fallen, but mainly because resource profits fell, from ¥616.8 billion to ¥417.8 billion.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the consolidated statements of income, financial position and cash flows, segment information, dividends, buybacks and the forecast for the year to March 2027. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIn the year to March 2016, impairments on Chilean copper, a loss at Valepar, the Browse LNG write-down and one-off charges in power produced a net loss of ¥83.4 billion, Mitsui's only loss in the period.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2016 - the net loss and the impairments in Chilean copper, Valepar, Browse LNG and power. — FY to March 2016 · publ. May 2016 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe Acrux copper investment alone lost ¥96.6 billion.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2016 - the net loss and the impairments in Chilean copper, Valepar, Browse LNG and power. — FY to March 2016 · publ. May 2016 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe published sensitivities show the day-to-day exposure: ¥3.0 billion per dollar of iron ore, ¥0.9 billion per dollar of oil, ¥1.2 billion per ten cents of US gas.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the JA Mitsui Leasing and Mainstream losses, the Russian LNG exposure, the Strait of Hormuz and the sensitivities. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe dividend per share was cut from ¥32 to ¥27.5, on the split-adjusted basis, after the loss year.
    Mitsui & Co., shareholder returns page - dividend and share buyback history. — 2014-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026