◆ What the Market Isn't Pricing In

Mitsui & Co. (8031) — the variant view

Mitsui's shares fell 15% after a record quarter, while its largest shareholder sits on 2.5 times its cost.

📈 8031 valuation, revenue & earnings — P/E, P/S, revenue, EPS →

Berkshire Hathaway became Mitsui's largest shareholder in 2025. On 21 September Mitsui was informed that Berkshire held 10% or more of its voting rights; Berkshire said it plans to hold the shares for a long period and intends to consider acquiring more1. National Indemnity's holding was 292,044,900 shares, 10.12%, making it the largest shareholder2. By the end of 2025 the stake was 10.4%, had cost $3,490 million, was worth $8,785 million and had paid $201 million of dividends in the year3: 2.5 times its cost and a 5.8% yield on it4. Berkshire funds the position with yen borrowings at an average cost of 1.2%5.

Berkshire's Mitsui stake, end-2025 ($ m)3,490Cost8,785Market value2012025 dividendsBerkshire Hathaway 2025 Annual Report
Worth two and a half times what Berkshire paid.

The long-run record justifies the interest. Mitsui's five-year total shareholder return was 554.4% against 179.0% for TOPIX6, and its market value rose from ¥2.9 trillion at March 2015 to ¥16.9 trillion at March 20267.

The recent record is the opposite. The shares fell from ¥5,959 at the end of March to ¥5,033 on 24 September 2026, a fall of about 15.5%8910, over a period in which Mitsui reported a record first-quarter profit and said an upward revision was possible1112. The price-to-earnings ratio fell from 20.47 at March13 to about 15.7514. The analysts' average target is ¥6,209.1715.

What the market may not be pricing is that the fall came with rising earnings rather than falling ones. Some of the quarter's profit was one-off, but core operating cash flow also rose, to ¥280.9 billion from ¥216.3 billion16.

The measure is the first-half result in October. An upward revision to the ¥920 billion forecast would test whether a 15% fall was about Mitsui or about the market's appetite for trading houses.

References
  1. ReportedOn 21 September Mitsui was informed that Berkshire held 10% or more of its voting rights; Berkshire said it plans to hold the shares for a long period and intends to consider acquiring more.
    Mitsui & Co. release, 22 September 2025 - Berkshire Hathaway holds 10% or more of the voting rights and plans to hold for a long period. — September 2025 · publ. 22 September 2025 · source ↗
  2. ReportedNational Indemnity's holding was 292,044,900 shares, 10.12%, making it the largest shareholder.
    Mitsui & Co. release, 9 October 2025 - National Indemnity holds 292,044,900 shares, 10.12%, and has become the largest shareholder. — October 2025 · publ. 9 October 2025 · source ↗
  3. ReportedBy the end of 2025 the stake was 10.4%, had cost $3,490 million, was worth $8,785 million and had paid $201 million of dividends in the year: 2.5 times its cost and a 5.8% yield on it.
    Berkshire Hathaway 2025 Annual Report - Mitsui at 10.4%, cost $3,490 million, market value $8,785 million and 2025 dividends $201 million, and yen borrowing at an average cost of 1.2%. — 2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  4. Moat Explorer calcBy the end of 2025 the stake was 10.4%, had cost $3,490 million, was worth $8,785 million and had paid $201 million of dividends in the year: 2.5 times its cost and a 5.8% yield on it.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Mitsui & Co.'s reported figures. Resource share of profit: (253.6 + 164.2) / 834.0 = 50.1% (2026), 51.0% (2025), 58.0% (2024). Iron ore business share: 262.2 / 834.0 = 31.4%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net income 833,971 - 191,647 + 294,052 = 936,376; revenue 13,995.2 - 3,299.9 + 4,347.6 = 15,042.9; EPS 291.12 - 66.68 + 103.73 = 328.17. P/S at March year-ends: 5,340.8 / 11,757.6 = 0.45 (2022), 0.44 (2023), 0.80 (2024), 0.55 (2025), 16,969.0 / 13,995.2 = 1.21 (2026). Share price change since March: 5,033 / 5,959 - 1 = -15.5%. Shares issued, split-adjusted: 3,284.7 million (March 2022) to 2,864.7 million (March 2026) = -12.8%. Equity-method profit and dividend income: 447.4 + 178.7 = 626.1, 57.6% of profit before tax of 1,087.1. Segment profit over segment assets, year to March 2026: Mineral & Metal Resources 253.6 / 4,313.2 = 5.9%; Machinery & Infrastructure 225.9 / 4,427.3 = 5.1%; Energy 164.2 / 4,181.4 = 3.9%; Chemicals 67.5 / 2,241.8 = 3.0%; Lifestyle 52.0 / 3,091.1 = 1.7%; Innovation & Corporate Development 59.0 / 2,655.3 = 2.2%; Iron & Steel Products 18.9 / 862.4 = 2.2%. Innovation & Corporate Development including other and adjustments: 59.0 + 20.7 - 27.7 = 51.9 (2026), 87.3 - 42.8 + 21.5 = 65.9 (2025), 53.8 + 5.6 - 5.9 = 53.6 (2024). A $10 move in iron ore: 10 x ¥3.0 billion = ¥30 billion, 3.3% of the ¥920 billion forecast. Berkshire's market value over cost: 8,785 / 3,490 = 2.52 times; dividend on cost 201 / 3,490 = 5.8%. Progress against guidance: 294.1 / 920.0 = 32.0%. Profit growth since the year to March 2016's loss: from -83.4 to 834.0. Resource profits: 335.1 + 281.7 = 616.8 (2024) and 253.6 + 164.2 = 417.8 (2026). Three largest segments: (253.6 + 225.9 + 164.2) / 841.1 = 76.5%. Energy Trading Singapore: 1,986,458 / 13,995,222 = 14.2%. First-quarter one-time gains: (44.2 + 10.2) / 294.1 = 18.5%. Innovation & Corporate Development first quarter against plan: 65.2 / 70.0 = 93%. Arctic LNG 2 provision change: 66,109 - 57,759 = 8,350. A $1 move in US gas: 10 x ¥1.2 billion = ¥12 billion. Vale dividend: 35.0 / 59.6 - 1 = -41%; 43.5 / 35.0 - 1 = +24%. Truck leasing holding: 19.8 / 28.4 - 1 = -30%; 18.8 / 19.8 - 1 = -5%. Profit to the 2029 target: 1,100 / 834.0 = 1.32; to the 2031 vision: 1,400 / 834.0 = 1.68. Berkshire value over cost 2.52 and dividend yield on cost 5.8%. Ministers North at full production: 7% x 20 Mt = 1.4 Mt. Mainstream charges: 15.1 + 15.9 + 28.05 = 59.05. Vale dividend fall against segment profit: (59.6 - 35.0) / 285.4 = 8.6%. Mitsui against smaller houses: profit 936.4 / 619.1 = 1.51 and 936.4 / 575.9 = 1.63; value 14.63 / 8.51 = 1.72 and 14.63 / 8.09 = 1.81. Trailing P/E: 14.63 trillion / 936.4 billion = 15.6; P/S 14.63 / 15.043 = 0.97. Dividend growth: 115 / 27.5 = 4.2 times. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Mitsui & Co.'s results, integrated report, securities report and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  5. ReportedBerkshire funds the position with yen borrowings at an average cost of 1.2%.
    Berkshire Hathaway 2025 Annual Report - Mitsui at 10.4%, cost $3,490 million, market value $8,785 million and 2025 dividends $201 million, and yen borrowing at an average cost of 1.2%. — 2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedMitsui's five-year total shareholder return was 554.4% against 179.0% for TOPIX, and its market value rose from ¥2.9 trillion at March 2015 to ¥16.9 trillion at March 2026.
    Mitsui & Co., Annual Securities Report for the year to March 2026 (English) - company history, employees, share price history, total shareholder return, equity production, the revenue of the Singapore trading subsidiary, competition and the Arctic LNG 2 guarantees. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 12 August 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedMitsui's five-year total shareholder return was 554.4% against 179.0% for TOPIX, and its market value rose from ¥2.9 trillion at March 2015 to ¥16.9 trillion at March 2026.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, Enhancing Corporate Value - market capitalisation of ¥2.9 trillion at March 2015 and ¥16.9 trillion at March 2026. — 2015-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe shares fell from ¥5,959 at the end of March to ¥5,033 on 24 September 2026, a fall of about 15.5%, over a period in which Mitsui reported a record first-quarter profit and said an upward revision was possible.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, data section - results by operating segment: gross profit, equity-method profit, dividend income, core operating cash flow and total assets. — FY to March 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedThe shares fell from ¥5,959 at the end of March to ¥5,033 on 24 September 2026, a fall of about 15.5%, over a period in which Mitsui reported a record first-quarter profit and said an upward revision was possible.
    Mitsui & Co. (TYO: 8031) market data - share price, market capitalisation 14.63T yen, trailing revenue and net income, P/E, forward P/E, dividend, analysts' target, September 2026. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
  10. Moat Explorer calcThe shares fell from ¥5,959 at the end of March to ¥5,033 on 24 September 2026, a fall of about 15.5%, over a period in which Mitsui reported a record first-quarter profit and said an upward revision was possible.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Mitsui & Co.'s reported figures. Resource share of profit: (253.6 + 164.2) / 834.0 = 50.1% (2026), 51.0% (2025), 58.0% (2024). Iron ore business share: 262.2 / 834.0 = 31.4%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net income 833,971 - 191,647 + 294,052 = 936,376; revenue 13,995.2 - 3,299.9 + 4,347.6 = 15,042.9; EPS 291.12 - 66.68 + 103.73 = 328.17. P/S at March year-ends: 5,340.8 / 11,757.6 = 0.45 (2022), 0.44 (2023), 0.80 (2024), 0.55 (2025), 16,969.0 / 13,995.2 = 1.21 (2026). Share price change since March: 5,033 / 5,959 - 1 = -15.5%. Shares issued, split-adjusted: 3,284.7 million (March 2022) to 2,864.7 million (March 2026) = -12.8%. Equity-method profit and dividend income: 447.4 + 178.7 = 626.1, 57.6% of profit before tax of 1,087.1. Segment profit over segment assets, year to March 2026: Mineral & Metal Resources 253.6 / 4,313.2 = 5.9%; Machinery & Infrastructure 225.9 / 4,427.3 = 5.1%; Energy 164.2 / 4,181.4 = 3.9%; Chemicals 67.5 / 2,241.8 = 3.0%; Lifestyle 52.0 / 3,091.1 = 1.7%; Innovation & Corporate Development 59.0 / 2,655.3 = 2.2%; Iron & Steel Products 18.9 / 862.4 = 2.2%. Innovation & Corporate Development including other and adjustments: 59.0 + 20.7 - 27.7 = 51.9 (2026), 87.3 - 42.8 + 21.5 = 65.9 (2025), 53.8 + 5.6 - 5.9 = 53.6 (2024). A $10 move in iron ore: 10 x ¥3.0 billion = ¥30 billion, 3.3% of the ¥920 billion forecast. Berkshire's market value over cost: 8,785 / 3,490 = 2.52 times; dividend on cost 201 / 3,490 = 5.8%. Progress against guidance: 294.1 / 920.0 = 32.0%. Profit growth since the year to March 2016's loss: from -83.4 to 834.0. Resource profits: 335.1 + 281.7 = 616.8 (2024) and 253.6 + 164.2 = 417.8 (2026). Three largest segments: (253.6 + 225.9 + 164.2) / 841.1 = 76.5%. Energy Trading Singapore: 1,986,458 / 13,995,222 = 14.2%. First-quarter one-time gains: (44.2 + 10.2) / 294.1 = 18.5%. Innovation & Corporate Development first quarter against plan: 65.2 / 70.0 = 93%. Arctic LNG 2 provision change: 66,109 - 57,759 = 8,350. A $1 move in US gas: 10 x ¥1.2 billion = ¥12 billion. Vale dividend: 35.0 / 59.6 - 1 = -41%; 43.5 / 35.0 - 1 = +24%. Truck leasing holding: 19.8 / 28.4 - 1 = -30%; 18.8 / 19.8 - 1 = -5%. Profit to the 2029 target: 1,100 / 834.0 = 1.32; to the 2031 vision: 1,400 / 834.0 = 1.68. Berkshire value over cost 2.52 and dividend yield on cost 5.8%. Ministers North at full production: 7% x 20 Mt = 1.4 Mt. Mainstream charges: 15.1 + 15.9 + 28.05 = 59.05. Vale dividend fall against segment profit: (59.6 - 35.0) / 285.4 = 8.6%. Mitsui against smaller houses: profit 936.4 / 619.1 = 1.51 and 936.4 / 575.9 = 1.63; value 14.63 / 8.51 = 1.72 and 14.63 / 8.09 = 1.81. Trailing P/E: 14.63 trillion / 936.4 billion = 15.6; P/S 14.63 / 15.043 = 0.97. Dividend growth: 115 / 27.5 = 4.2 times. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Mitsui & Co.'s results, integrated report, securities report and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  11. ReportedThe shares fell from ¥5,959 at the end of March to ¥5,033 on 24 September 2026, a fall of about 15.5%, over a period in which Mitsui reported a record first-quarter profit and said an upward revision was possible.
    Mitsui & Co., narration of the first-quarter results, August 2026. — April-June 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedThe shares fell from ¥5,959 at the end of March to ¥5,033 on 24 September 2026, a fall of about 15.5%, over a period in which Mitsui reported a record first-quarter profit and said an upward revision was possible.
    Mitsui & Co., Q&A of the first-quarter results meeting, August 2026 - including the possibility of an upward revision and the Middle East methanol effect. — April-June 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedThe price-to-earnings ratio fell from 20.47 at March to about 15.75.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, data section - results by operating segment: gross profit, equity-method profit, dividend income, core operating cash flow and total assets. — FY to March 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  14. ReportedThe price-to-earnings ratio fell from 20.47 at March to about 15.75.
    Mitsui & Co. (TYO: 8031) market data - share price, market capitalisation 14.63T yen, trailing revenue and net income, P/E, forward P/E, dividend, analysts' target, September 2026. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
  15. ReportedThe analysts' average target is ¥6,209.17.
    Mitsui & Co. (TYO: 8031) market data - share price, market capitalisation 14.63T yen, trailing revenue and net income, P/E, forward P/E, dividend, analysts' target, September 2026. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
  16. ReportedSome of the quarter's profit was one-off, but core operating cash flow also rose, to ¥280.9 billion from ¥216.3 billion.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the three months ended June 30, 2026 (IFRS) - revenue, profit, segment results on the new basis, core operating cash flow and the balance sheet. — April-June 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026