A 10% Hurdle Across 1,080 ProjectsNarrow moat

Mitsui & Co. (8031) — moat facet

Mitsui holds its new investments to a 10% return and reviews more than a thousand projects against it.

Mitsui states a minimum internal rate of return of 10% or higher for investments across the company, with higher hurdles based on project risk1. It applies a portfolio review to 1,080 projects with a book value of ¥10.2 trillion2, and uses return on invested capital against the weighted average cost of capital to decide what to keep3.

Return, latest year (%)10.0IRR hurdle10.2Group ROE5.9Mineral & Metal ROA3.9Energy ROAROE and ROA are not the same measure as IRR; Mitsui Integrated Report 2026
The hurdle sits above most of the realised returns.

A published hurdle is a commitment that can be checked. At 10%, it is above the return on equity the company actually earned in the latest year, 10.2%4, and far above the 3.9% the Energy segment earned on its assets5. The gap between the hurdle and the realised returns reflects old investments made under different conditions and new ones that have not yet started earning.

The review is meant to find the projects that are not meeting it. The company sold the shares of 18 listed companies during its last plan6 and exceeded its asset recycling target by a wide margin7.

The last plan's scorecard shows the discipline and its limits together. Mitsui decided ¥2,412 billion of new investments against a target of ¥1,170 billion8, more than double. It met its return targets while doing so, averaging 12.5% ROE9, but the latest year's 10.2%10 is the one on which the new investments start.

The measure is the number and value of exits. Continued recycling at the pace of the last plan would show the hurdle being enforced.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

The hurdle is unchanged; realised returns are below it in some segments.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Book value under portfolio review
¥10.2 trillion across 1,080 projects

The portfolio the 10% hurdle is applied to; watch exits against it.

Source: Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, portfolio strategy ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
An Analyst Doubts the 12%
Mitsui's own shareholders question whether its 12% return target adds up.
References
  1. ReportedMitsui states a minimum internal rate of return of 10% or higher for investments across the company, with higher hurdles based on project risk.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, financial and portfolio strategy - the 10% IRR minimum and the review of 1,080 projects. — 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIt applies a portfolio review to 1,080 projects with a book value of ¥10.2 trillion, and uses return on invested capital against the weighted average cost of capital to decide what to keep.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, financial and portfolio strategy - the 10% IRR minimum and the review of 1,080 projects. — 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIt applies a portfolio review to 1,080 projects with a book value of ¥10.2 trillion, and uses return on invested capital against the weighted average cost of capital to decide what to keep.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026 (full) - portfolio management, including the requirement that each business generate ROIC above its weighted average cost of capital. — 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedAt 10%, it is above the return on equity the company actually earned in the latest year, 10.2%, and far above the 3.9% the Energy segment earned on its assets.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, data section - the five-year financial data: market capitalisation, PER, PBR, ROE, net debt, free cash flow, asset recycling and payout. — FY to March 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  5. Moat Explorer calcAt 10%, it is above the return on equity the company actually earned in the latest year, 10.2%, and far above the 3.9% the Energy segment earned on its assets.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Mitsui & Co.'s reported figures. Resource share of profit: (253.6 + 164.2) / 834.0 = 50.1% (2026), 51.0% (2025), 58.0% (2024). Iron ore business share: 262.2 / 834.0 = 31.4%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net income 833,971 - 191,647 + 294,052 = 936,376; revenue 13,995.2 - 3,299.9 + 4,347.6 = 15,042.9; EPS 291.12 - 66.68 + 103.73 = 328.17. P/S at March year-ends: 5,340.8 / 11,757.6 = 0.45 (2022), 0.44 (2023), 0.80 (2024), 0.55 (2025), 16,969.0 / 13,995.2 = 1.21 (2026). Share price change since March: 5,033 / 5,959 - 1 = -15.5%. Shares issued, split-adjusted: 3,284.7 million (March 2022) to 2,864.7 million (March 2026) = -12.8%. Equity-method profit and dividend income: 447.4 + 178.7 = 626.1, 57.6% of profit before tax of 1,087.1. Segment profit over segment assets, year to March 2026: Mineral & Metal Resources 253.6 / 4,313.2 = 5.9%; Machinery & Infrastructure 225.9 / 4,427.3 = 5.1%; Energy 164.2 / 4,181.4 = 3.9%; Chemicals 67.5 / 2,241.8 = 3.0%; Lifestyle 52.0 / 3,091.1 = 1.7%; Innovation & Corporate Development 59.0 / 2,655.3 = 2.2%; Iron & Steel Products 18.9 / 862.4 = 2.2%. Innovation & Corporate Development including other and adjustments: 59.0 + 20.7 - 27.7 = 51.9 (2026), 87.3 - 42.8 + 21.5 = 65.9 (2025), 53.8 + 5.6 - 5.9 = 53.6 (2024). A $10 move in iron ore: 10 x ¥3.0 billion = ¥30 billion, 3.3% of the ¥920 billion forecast. Berkshire's market value over cost: 8,785 / 3,490 = 2.52 times; dividend on cost 201 / 3,490 = 5.8%. Progress against guidance: 294.1 / 920.0 = 32.0%. Profit growth since the year to March 2016's loss: from -83.4 to 834.0. Resource profits: 335.1 + 281.7 = 616.8 (2024) and 253.6 + 164.2 = 417.8 (2026). Three largest segments: (253.6 + 225.9 + 164.2) / 841.1 = 76.5%. Energy Trading Singapore: 1,986,458 / 13,995,222 = 14.2%. First-quarter one-time gains: (44.2 + 10.2) / 294.1 = 18.5%. Innovation & Corporate Development first quarter against plan: 65.2 / 70.0 = 93%. Arctic LNG 2 provision change: 66,109 - 57,759 = 8,350. A $1 move in US gas: 10 x ¥1.2 billion = ¥12 billion. Vale dividend: 35.0 / 59.6 - 1 = -41%; 43.5 / 35.0 - 1 = +24%. Truck leasing holding: 19.8 / 28.4 - 1 = -30%; 18.8 / 19.8 - 1 = -5%. Profit to the 2029 target: 1,100 / 834.0 = 1.32; to the 2031 vision: 1,400 / 834.0 = 1.68. Berkshire value over cost 2.52 and dividend yield on cost 5.8%. Ministers North at full production: 7% x 20 Mt = 1.4 Mt. Mainstream charges: 15.1 + 15.9 + 28.05 = 59.05. Vale dividend fall against segment profit: (59.6 - 35.0) / 285.4 = 8.6%. Mitsui against smaller houses: profit 936.4 / 619.1 = 1.51 and 936.4 / 575.9 = 1.63; value 14.63 / 8.51 = 1.72 and 14.63 / 8.09 = 1.81. Trailing P/E: 14.63 trillion / 936.4 billion = 15.6; P/S 14.63 / 15.043 = 0.97. Dividend growth: 115 / 27.5 = 4.2 times. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Mitsui & Co.'s results, integrated report, securities report and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  6. ReportedThe company sold the shares of 18 listed companies during its last plan and exceeded its asset recycling target by a wide margin.
    Mitsui & Co., results presentation for the year to March 2026 - producing assets with partners and stakes, LNG projects, affiliates and power contracts. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe company sold the shares of 18 listed companies during its last plan and exceeded its asset recycling target by a wide margin.
    Mitsui & Co., Medium-term Management Plan 2029 presentation - targets, the 2030 vision and the scorecard of MTMP2026. — FY to March 2027-2029 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedMitsui decided ¥2,412 billion of new investments against a target of ¥1,170 billion, more than double.
    Mitsui & Co., Medium-term Management Plan 2029 presentation - targets, the 2030 vision and the scorecard of MTMP2026. — FY to March 2027-2029 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedIt met its return targets while doing so, averaging 12.5% ROE, but the latest year's 10.2% is the one on which the new investments start.
    Mitsui & Co., Medium-term Management Plan 2029 presentation - targets, the 2030 vision and the scorecard of MTMP2026. — FY to March 2027-2029 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedIt met its return targets while doing so, averaging 12.5% ROE, but the latest year's 10.2% is the one on which the new investments start.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, data section - the five-year financial data: market capitalisation, PER, PBR, ROE, net debt, free cash flow, asset recycling and payout. — FY to March 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026