⚠ A Board in Brazil Sets the PayoutModerate threat

Mitsui & Co. (8031) — threat to the moat

Mitsui holds 6.71% of Vale and receives whatever Vale decides to pay.

The Vale dividend fell from ¥59.6 billion to ¥35.0 billion between the years to March 2024 and 20251, a drop of about 41%, and Mitsui could do nothing about it. It is a 6.71% shareholder2.

Vale dividend, year-on-year change-41%2025 vs 2024+24%2026 vs 2025Calculated from Mitsui Integrated Report 2026 affiliate table
A payout that fell by two-fifths and then partly recovered.

Vale's dividends depend on the iron ore price and on its own investment plans, both of which are decided in Brazil. Mitsui's share of the ore is real, but the only cash it sees is what Vale pays out.

The stake is also excluded from the published sensitivity3, which makes it harder to model.

The dividend's swings are large relative to the segment. The fall from ¥59.6 billion to ¥35.0 billion4 was worth nearly a tenth of Mineral & Metal Resources' profit in the year it happened56. A shareholder in Mitsui gets Vale's payout policy without a vote on it.

The measure is the payout. A second cut in three years would say the stake is better thought of as a listed investment than as part of the iron ore business.

References
  1. ReportedThe Vale dividend fell from ¥59.6 billion to ¥35.0 billion between the years to March 2024 and 2025, a drop of about 41%, and Mitsui could do nothing about it.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, data section - the major affiliates by segment with ownership and share of profit. — FY to March 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIt is a 6.71% shareholder.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, data section - results by operating segment: gross profit, equity-method profit, dividend income, core operating cash flow and total assets. — FY to March 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe stake is also excluded from the published sensitivity, which makes it harder to model.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the JA Mitsui Leasing and Mainstream losses, the Russian LNG exposure, the Strait of Hormuz and the sensitivities. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe fall from ¥59.6 billion to ¥35.0 billion was worth nearly a tenth of Mineral & Metal Resources' profit in the year it happened.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, data section - results by operating segment: gross profit, equity-method profit, dividend income, core operating cash flow and total assets. — FY to March 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe fall from ¥59.6 billion to ¥35.0 billion was worth nearly a tenth of Mineral & Metal Resources' profit in the year it happened.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2025 (IFRS) - including segment information for the years to March 2025 and 2024. — FY to March 2025 · publ. May 2025 · source ↗
  6. Moat Explorer calcThe fall from ¥59.6 billion to ¥35.0 billion was worth nearly a tenth of Mineral & Metal Resources' profit in the year it happened.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Mitsui & Co.'s reported figures. Resource share of profit: (253.6 + 164.2) / 834.0 = 50.1% (2026), 51.0% (2025), 58.0% (2024). Iron ore business share: 262.2 / 834.0 = 31.4%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net income 833,971 - 191,647 + 294,052 = 936,376; revenue 13,995.2 - 3,299.9 + 4,347.6 = 15,042.9; EPS 291.12 - 66.68 + 103.73 = 328.17. P/S at March year-ends: 5,340.8 / 11,757.6 = 0.45 (2022), 0.44 (2023), 0.80 (2024), 0.55 (2025), 16,969.0 / 13,995.2 = 1.21 (2026). Share price change since March: 5,033 / 5,959 - 1 = -15.5%. Shares issued, split-adjusted: 3,284.7 million (March 2022) to 2,864.7 million (March 2026) = -12.8%. Equity-method profit and dividend income: 447.4 + 178.7 = 626.1, 57.6% of profit before tax of 1,087.1. Segment profit over segment assets, year to March 2026: Mineral & Metal Resources 253.6 / 4,313.2 = 5.9%; Machinery & Infrastructure 225.9 / 4,427.3 = 5.1%; Energy 164.2 / 4,181.4 = 3.9%; Chemicals 67.5 / 2,241.8 = 3.0%; Lifestyle 52.0 / 3,091.1 = 1.7%; Innovation & Corporate Development 59.0 / 2,655.3 = 2.2%; Iron & Steel Products 18.9 / 862.4 = 2.2%. Innovation & Corporate Development including other and adjustments: 59.0 + 20.7 - 27.7 = 51.9 (2026), 87.3 - 42.8 + 21.5 = 65.9 (2025), 53.8 + 5.6 - 5.9 = 53.6 (2024). A $10 move in iron ore: 10 x ¥3.0 billion = ¥30 billion, 3.3% of the ¥920 billion forecast. Berkshire's market value over cost: 8,785 / 3,490 = 2.52 times; dividend on cost 201 / 3,490 = 5.8%. Progress against guidance: 294.1 / 920.0 = 32.0%. Profit growth since the year to March 2016's loss: from -83.4 to 834.0. Resource profits: 335.1 + 281.7 = 616.8 (2024) and 253.6 + 164.2 = 417.8 (2026). Three largest segments: (253.6 + 225.9 + 164.2) / 841.1 = 76.5%. Energy Trading Singapore: 1,986,458 / 13,995,222 = 14.2%. First-quarter one-time gains: (44.2 + 10.2) / 294.1 = 18.5%. Innovation & Corporate Development first quarter against plan: 65.2 / 70.0 = 93%. Arctic LNG 2 provision change: 66,109 - 57,759 = 8,350. A $1 move in US gas: 10 x ¥1.2 billion = ¥12 billion. Vale dividend: 35.0 / 59.6 - 1 = -41%; 43.5 / 35.0 - 1 = +24%. Truck leasing holding: 19.8 / 28.4 - 1 = -30%; 18.8 / 19.8 - 1 = -5%. Profit to the 2029 target: 1,100 / 834.0 = 1.32; to the 2031 vision: 1,400 / 834.0 = 1.68. Berkshire value over cost 2.52 and dividend yield on cost 5.8%. Ministers North at full production: 7% x 20 Mt = 1.4 Mt. Mainstream charges: 15.1 + 15.9 + 28.05 = 59.05. Vale dividend fall against segment profit: (59.6 - 35.0) / 285.4 = 8.6%. Mitsui against smaller houses: profit 936.4 / 619.1 = 1.51 and 936.4 / 575.9 = 1.63; value 14.63 / 8.51 = 1.72 and 14.63 / 8.09 = 1.81. Trailing P/E: 14.63 trillion / 936.4 billion = 15.6; P/S 14.63 / 15.043 = 0.97. Dividend growth: 115 / 27.5 = 4.2 times. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Mitsui & Co.'s results, integrated report, securities report and market data; operands shown in the source line.
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026