TrulicityThin moat

Eli Lilly (LLY) — moat facet

Lilly's first GLP-1, overtaken by its own successor and facing a patent end in 2027 and a government price in 2028.

Trulicity is what the incretin franchise looks like on the way down. It peaked at $7,440 million in 2022, fell to $7,133 million in 2023 and $5,254 million in 2024, and was one of six Lilly products with more than $3 billion of revenue in 2025.123

Trulicity revenue, second quarter against first half ($M)$1,092MQ2 25$1,219MQ2 26$2,187MH1 25$2,138MH1 26Lilly Form 10-Q, June 2026; U.S. patent to 2027
Holding near $1.1 billion a quarter ahead of the 2027 patent end.

What is inside the line is dulaglutide, a once-weekly GLP-1 injection for type 2 diabetes. It was Lilly's largest product in 2021, at $6,472 million.4

The history explains the decline. Trulicity grew as the first convenient weekly GLP-1. From 2023 its patients began moving to Mounjaro, which does more for blood sugar and weight; in 2024 the 10-K said Trulicity partly offset the U.S. volume growth from Zepbound and Mounjaro.5

It is paid for per prescription through the same wholesalers and benefit managers as the rest of Lilly's diabetes medicines. Its price is also about to be set by the government: in January 2026 HHS selected Trulicity for Medicare price negotiation, with the set price effective in 2028.6

Profitability by product is not disclosed. The line has held up better than the trend suggested in 2026: first-half revenue was $2,138 million against $2,187 million, and the June quarter's $1,219 million was up 12%.78

The outlook is set by two dates. Trulicity's U.S. compound patent and biologics data protection are estimated to end in 2027, and its major European patent in 2029.9 After that, copies can compete on price.

There is no moat left here to defend; the line is being managed for cash while Lilly's patients move to tirzepatide. The figure worth watching is Trulicity's quarterly revenue, $1.2 billion in June 2026. A fall below $500 million a quarter in 2028 would show how fast a biologic loses its market once patent and government price arrive together.

Moat trajectory: Narrowing

Down from $7.4B in 2022, patent end in 2027, government price in 2028.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Trulicity revenue, latest quarter
$1.22B in Q2 2026, from $1.09B

The patent ends in 2027 and a government price follows in 2028. Below $0.5B a quarter by 2028 would show how fast a biologic's market goes.

Source: Lilly Form 10-Q, June 2026 ↗
References
  1. ReportedIt peaked at $7,440 million in 2022, fell to $7,133 million in 2023 and $5,254 million in 2024, and was one of six Lilly products with more than $3 billion of revenue in 2025.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-K, FY2023 - revenue by product 2022-2023 (Trulicity $7,440M/$7,133M, Mounjaro $483M/$5,163M, Verzenio $2,484M/$3,863M, Humalog $2,061M/$1,663M, Alimta $928M/$218M, COVID-19 antibodies $2,024M/nil, Zepbound $176M); income statement 2021-2023; price +4% and volume +16% in 2023; rebates deducted $28,398M (2022) and $37,867M (2023); capital expenditure $1,310M/$1,854M/$3,448M — FY2021-FY2023 · publ. February 2024 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIt peaked at $7,440 million in 2022, fell to $7,133 million in 2023 and $5,254 million in 2024, and was one of six Lilly products with more than $3 billion of revenue in 2025.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-K, FY2024 - revenue by product 2023-2024 (Mounjaro $11,540M, Zepbound $4,926M, Trulicity $5,254M, Verzenio $5,307M, Humalog $2,325M, Basaglar $677M); price +5% and volume +27% in 2024 (U.S. price +8%); rebates deducted $41,452M — FY2023-FY2024 · publ. February 2025 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIt peaked at $7,440 million in 2022, fell to $7,133 million in 2023 and $5,254 million in 2024, and was one of six Lilly products with more than $3 billion of revenue in 2025.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-K, FY2025 - revenue $65,179M (Mounjaro $22,965M, Zepbound $13,542M, Verzenio $5,723M); gross margin 83.0% (81.3%); R&D $13,337M; marketing, selling and administrative $11,094M; acquired IPR&D $2,910M; net income $20,640M; price -6% and volume +50% (U.S. price -10%, volume +53%); rebates, discounts and returns deducted $62,135M; capital expenditure $7,841M; operating cash flow $16,813M ($8,818M, $4,240M); U.S. compound patents: Cyramza 2026, Trulicity 2027, Jardiance 2029, Verzenio 2031, Olumiant 2032, Mounjaro/Zepbound 2036, Jaypirca 2037, Retevmo 2038, Inluriyo 2039; HHS selected Trulicity and Verzenio in January 2026 for government-set prices effective 2028; six products above $3 billion were 82% of revenue; three wholesalers each 16%-24% of revenue — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIt was Lilly's largest product in 2021, at $6,472 million.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-K, FY2021 - revenue by product 2020-2021 (Trulicity $6,472M, Humalog $2,453M/$2,626M, Alimta $2,061M/$2,330M, COVID-19 antibodies $2,239M/$871M, Basaglar $893M/$1,124M); income statement 2019-2021 (R&D $5,595M/$6,086M/$7,026M, revenue $22,320M/$24,540M/$28,318M); rebates, discounts and returns deducted from sales $18,668M (2020) and $20,106M (2021) — FY2019-FY2021 · publ. February 2022 · source ↗
  5. ReportedFrom 2023 its patients began moving to Mounjaro, which does more for blood sugar and weight; in 2024 the 10-K said Trulicity partly offset the U.S. volume growth from Zepbound and Mounjaro.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-K, FY2024 - revenue by product 2023-2024 (Mounjaro $11,540M, Zepbound $4,926M, Trulicity $5,254M, Verzenio $5,307M, Humalog $2,325M, Basaglar $677M); price +5% and volume +27% in 2024 (U.S. price +8%); rebates deducted $41,452M — FY2023-FY2024 · publ. February 2025 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIts price is also about to be set by the government: in January 2026 HHS selected Trulicity for Medicare price negotiation, with the set price effective in 2028.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-K, FY2025 - revenue $65,179M (Mounjaro $22,965M, Zepbound $13,542M, Verzenio $5,723M); gross margin 83.0% (81.3%); R&D $13,337M; marketing, selling and administrative $11,094M; acquired IPR&D $2,910M; net income $20,640M; price -6% and volume +50% (U.S. price -10%, volume +53%); rebates, discounts and returns deducted $62,135M; capital expenditure $7,841M; operating cash flow $16,813M ($8,818M, $4,240M); U.S. compound patents: Cyramza 2026, Trulicity 2027, Jardiance 2029, Verzenio 2031, Olumiant 2032, Mounjaro/Zepbound 2036, Jaypirca 2037, Retevmo 2038, Inluriyo 2039; HHS selected Trulicity and Verzenio in January 2026 for government-set prices effective 2028; six products above $3 billion were 82% of revenue; three wholesalers each 16%-24% of revenue — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe line has held up better than the trend suggested in 2026: first-half revenue was $2,138 million against $2,187 million, and the June quarter's $1,219 million was up 12%.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-Q, quarter ended 30 June 2026 - revenue $22,974M (+48%): Mounjaro $9,943M (U.S. $4,791M, outside $5,152M), Zepbound $4,928M, Jardiance $1,232M, Trulicity $1,219M, Verzenio $1,474M; oncology $2,570M, immunology $1,417M, neuroscience $429M; volume +60% and price -13% (U.S. +37%/-3%, outside +113%/-36%); gross margin 85.8% (84.3%); R&D $3,819M; MS&A $3,430M; acquired IPR&D $2,776M; special charges $703M; tax rate 23.3% (16.5%); net income $7,095M; diluted EPS $7.94; H1 capital expenditure $5,259M and operating cash flow $16,023M — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  8. Moat Explorer calcThe line has held up better than the trend suggested in 2026: first-half revenue was $2,138 million against $2,187 million, and the June quarter's $1,219 million was up 12%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Lilly's Forms 10-K FY2021-FY2025 and the Q2 2026 10-Q: tirzepatide (Mounjaro + Zepbound) $36,507M in 2025, $14,871M in Q2 2026 ($8,580M), trailing twelve months $49,466M; trailing revenue $79,666M; margins and shares as stated — 2021 to Q2 2026 · publ. 2026-09-23 · source ↗
  9. ReportedTrulicity's U.S. compound patent and biologics data protection are estimated to end in 2027, and its major European patent in 2029.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-K, FY2025 - revenue $65,179M (Mounjaro $22,965M, Zepbound $13,542M, Verzenio $5,723M); gross margin 83.0% (81.3%); R&D $13,337M; marketing, selling and administrative $11,094M; acquired IPR&D $2,910M; net income $20,640M; price -6% and volume +50% (U.S. price -10%, volume +53%); rebates, discounts and returns deducted $62,135M; capital expenditure $7,841M; operating cash flow $16,813M ($8,818M, $4,240M); U.S. compound patents: Cyramza 2026, Trulicity 2027, Jardiance 2029, Verzenio 2031, Olumiant 2032, Mounjaro/Zepbound 2036, Jaypirca 2037, Retevmo 2038, Inluriyo 2039; HHS selected Trulicity and Verzenio in January 2026 for government-set prices effective 2028; six products above $3 billion were 82% of revenue; three wholesalers each 16%-24% of revenue — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026