⚠ Lumpy QuartersLow threat

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) — threat to the moat

Palantir's quarterly signings swing by a billion dollars with a few large contracts, so one quarter says little.

Contract signings are lumpy, and Palantir's recent record shows it. Total contract value closed was $4,262 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, up 138%1, and $3.373 billion in the second quarter of 2026, up 49%2. A single large deal can move the quarter by hundreds of millions.

Contract value growth, year on year (%)+138%Q4 2025 total+49%Q2 2026 total+153%Q2 2026 US commercialPalantir Q4 2025 and Q2 2026 results releases
Growth rates swing with a handful of deals.

The lumpiness matters because investors read signings as a forecast. A quarter in which two large contracts slip into the next can look like a slowdown even if nothing has changed with customers, and at Palantir's valuation the share price reacts to such quarters.

It also matters because the figures count what customers might spend. Palantir's definitions say contract value and remaining deal value "presume the exercise of all contract options"3, and many contracts can be cancelled for convenience4.

The total remaining deal value moves more smoothly than quarterly signings. It was $13.1 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2026, up 83%5, a steadier rise than the swing between $4,262 million and $3.373 billion of quarterly contract value67. That backlog, not the quarter, is the better guide.

So the useful number is the trend over four quarters, not one. If trailing twelve-month signings stop growing, the forward pipeline has stalled; a single weak quarter proves little in a business built on large contracts.

References
  1. ReportedTotal contract value closed was $4,262 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, up 138%, and $3.373 billion in the second quarter of 2026, up 49%.
    Palantir fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue, US revenue lines, margins, stock-based compensation, cash flow and initial 2026 guidance - full-year 2025 results: revenue by line, margins, expenses, stock pay and cash flow. — FY2025 · publ. 2 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedTotal contract value closed was $4,262 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, up 138%, and $3.373 billion in the second quarter of 2026, up 49%.
    Palantir second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue, US commercial and government revenue, deal counts, TCV, US commercial RDV, cash and raised 2026 guidance - second-quarter results: revenue by line, margins, deal counts, contract value, cash and stock pay. — Q2 2026 · publ. 3 August 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedPalantir's definitions say contract value and remaining deal value "presume the exercise of all contract options", and many contracts can be cancelled for convenience.
    Palantir second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue, US commercial and government revenue, deal counts, TCV, US commercial RDV, cash and raised 2026 guidance - second-quarter results: revenue by line, margins, deal counts, contract value, cash and stock pay. — Q2 2026 · publ. 3 August 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedPalantir's definitions say contract value and remaining deal value "presume the exercise of all contract options", and many contracts can be cancelled for convenience.
    Palantir Technologies Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1A risk factors: contract terminations, government budgets, sales cycle, AI regulation and the founders' voting control. — FY2025 · publ. 17 February 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedIt was $13.1 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2026, up 83%, a steadier rise than the swing between $4,262 million and $3.373 billion of quarterly contract value.
    The Motley Fool, Palantir Q2 2026 earnings call transcript - international revenue, total remaining deal value, RPO growth, Maven and a large technology contract. — Q2 2026 · publ. 3 August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIt was $13.1 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2026, up 83%, a steadier rise than the swing between $4,262 million and $3.373 billion of quarterly contract value.
    Palantir fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue, US revenue lines, margins, stock-based compensation, cash flow and initial 2026 guidance - full-year 2025 results: revenue by line, margins, expenses, stock pay and cash flow. — FY2025 · publ. 2 February 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedIt was $13.1 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2026, up 83%, a steadier rise than the swing between $4,262 million and $3.373 billion of quarterly contract value.
    Palantir second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue, US commercial and government revenue, deal counts, TCV, US commercial RDV, cash and raised 2026 guidance - second-quarter results: revenue by line, margins, deal counts, contract value, cash and stock pay. — Q2 2026 · publ. 3 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026