Shareholders Now Fund It TooThin moat

Oracle (ORCL) — moat facet

Oracle spent $36 billion buying back its stock in one year and now sells $20 billion of it in one quarter to pay for datacenters.

For a decade Oracle shrank its share count. It spent $36,140 million on buybacks in fiscal 2019 alone1, and more than $10 billion a year in most years from 2016 to 20222. In fiscal 2026 it repurchased $95 million3, and it has about $6.3 billion of authorisation left4.

Share repurchases ($M)10,440FY201636,140FY201920,934FY20211,300FY202395FY2026SEC EDGAR companyfacts; Oracle Form 10-K FY2026
From $36 billion a year to almost nothing.

Now it sells shares instead. In the first quarter of fiscal 2027 Oracle fully used its at-the-market programme, issuing 141 million shares for net proceeds of $19.9 billion5. In February 2026 it sold 100,000,000 depositary shares of a 6.50% Series D mandatory convertible preferred stock6, raising $4,954 million net7.

The share count shows the reversal. Diluted shares were 2,823 million in fiscal 20248 and 3,000 million in the first quarter of fiscal 20279, about 6.3% more10. Common shares outstanding were 3,023,736,000 on 7 September 202611.

The preferred stock ranks ahead of the common. Oracle's annual report notes that its common stock ranks junior to the mandatory convertible preferred with respect to dividends and liquidation12.

The preferred stock is expensive capital. The Series D shares pay 6.50%13, and Oracle paid $103 million of preferred dividends in fiscal 2026, its first year with any14. That cost ranks ahead of the common dividend of $2.00 a share15, which Oracle has kept paying through the build.

A company issuing shares to build is not wrong to do it; it is a sign the cash from the old business is no longer enough. The number to watch is diluted shares: a count that keeps rising while earnings per share grows says the new business is worth the dilution, and a rising count with flat earnings per share says it is not.

Moat trajectory: Narrowing

141M shares sold in Q1 FY2027; diluted count 3,000M.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Diluted shares outstanding, latest quarter
3,000M (Q1 FY2027), from 2,909M a year earlier

The owners' share of the business; a rising count without faster EPS growth would mean the build is diluting them.

Source: Oracle Q1 FY2027 results release ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
Three Billion Shares and Rising
Oracle's share count has risen about 6% since fiscal 2024, and a convertible preferred will add more.
References
  1. ReportedIt spent $36,140 million on buybacks in fiscal 2019 alone, and more than $10 billion a year in most years from 2016 to 2022.
    SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts for Oracle (CIK 1341439) - revenue, net income, R&D, capital expenditure and share repurchases for fiscal 2015-2026. — FY2015-FY2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIt spent $36,140 million on buybacks in fiscal 2019 alone, and more than $10 billion a year in most years from 2016 to 2022.
    SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts for Oracle (CIK 1341439) - revenue, net income, R&D, capital expenditure and share repurchases for fiscal 2015-2026. — FY2015-FY2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIn fiscal 2026 it repurchased $95 million, and it has about $6.3 billion of authorisation left.
    Oracle Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 31 May 2026) - financial statements and notes: income statement, cash flow, borrowings, leases, equity and commitments. — FY2026 · publ. 22 June 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIn fiscal 2026 it repurchased $95 million, and it has about $6.3 billion of authorisation left.
    Oracle Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 31 May 2026) - financial statements and notes: income statement, cash flow, borrowings, leases, equity and commitments. — FY2026 · publ. 22 June 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedIn the first quarter of fiscal 2027 Oracle fully used its at-the-market programme, issuing 141 million shares for net proceeds of $19.9 billion.
    Oracle Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 31 August 2026 - segments, leases not yet commenced, the ATM share programme, RPO timing and shares outstanding. — Q1 FY2027 · publ. 11 September 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIn February 2026 it sold 100,000,000 depositary shares of a 6.50% Series D mandatory convertible preferred stock, raising $4,954 million net.
    Oracle Form 8-K - 100,000,000 depositary shares of 6.50% Series D mandatory convertible preferred stock. — February 2026 · publ. 5 February 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedIn February 2026 it sold 100,000,000 depositary shares of a 6.50% Series D mandatory convertible preferred stock, raising $4,954 million net.
    Oracle Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 31 May 2026) - financial statements and notes: income statement, cash flow, borrowings, leases, equity and commitments. — FY2026 · publ. 22 June 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedDiluted shares were 2,823 million in fiscal 2024 and 3,000 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, about 6.3% more.
    Oracle Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 31 May 2026) - financial statements and notes: income statement, cash flow, borrowings, leases, equity and commitments. — FY2026 · publ. 22 June 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedDiluted shares were 2,823 million in fiscal 2024 and 3,000 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, about 6.3% more.
    Oracle first-quarter fiscal 2027 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, with supplemental tables - income statement, cash flow statement and balance sheet. — Q1 FY2027 · publ. 10 September 2026 · source ↗
  10. Moat Explorer calcDiluted shares were 2,823 million in fiscal 2024 and 3,000 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, about 6.3% more.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Oracle's reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years end 31 May). Revenue lines: software support 19,804 / 19,365 - 1 = 2.3% (FY2022-FY2026); support share 19,804 / 67,357 = 29.4%; support Q1 FY2027 4,895 / 4,955 - 1 = -1.2%; licences FY2026 4,737 / 5,201 - 1 = -8.9%; licences Q1 FY2027 655 / 766 - 1 = -14.5%; licences FY2017 to FY2026 4,737 / 6,523 - 1 = -27.4%; fourth-quarter licences 1,881 / 4,737 = 39.7%. Software (licence plus support) FY2022 5,878 + 19,365 = 25,243; FY2023 5,779 + 19,426 = 25,205; FY2026 24,541 / 24,724 - 1 = -0.7%; software share 24,541 / 67,357 = 36.4%. Cloud infrastructure FY2026 18,101 / 10,234 - 1 = 76.9%; FY2024 to FY2026 18,101 / 6,840 = 2.6 times; share 18,101 / 67,357 = 26.9%; Q1 FY2027 share 7,388 / 19,345 = 38.2%; annual run rate 7,388 x 4 = 29,552. Cloud applications FY2025 14,272 / 12,934 - 1 = 10.3%; FY2026 15,888 / 14,272 - 1 = 11.3%; share 15,888 / 67,357 = 23.6%; trailing twelve months 15,888 - 3,839 + 4,219 = 16,268. Applications ecosystem revenue 18,172 / 16,651 - 1 = 9.1%; 19,383 / 18,172 - 1 = 6.7%. Hardware segment margin 2,017 / 3,084 = 65.4% (FY2026); 1,709 / 4,152 = 41.2% (FY2017); 1,903 / 3,443 = 55.3% (FY2020); 1,932 / 3,274 = 59.0% (FY2023); 452 / 774 = 58.4% (Q1 FY2027); hardware revenue 3,084 / 4,152 - 1 = -25.7%; 3,084 / 5,205 - 1 = -40.7%; share 3,084 / 67,357 = 4.6%. Services margin 1,533 / 5,743 = 26.7% (FY2026); 993 / 5,233 = 19.0% (FY2025); 698 / 3,359 = 20.8% (FY2017); 450 / 3,106 = 14.5% (FY2020); 1,104 / 5,594 = 19.7% (FY2023); 445 / 1,414 = 31.5% (Q1 FY2027); services growth 5,743 / 5,233 - 1 = 9.7%; share 5,743 / 67,357 = 8.5%; revenue per services employee 5,743 / 34,000 = about $169,000. Cloud and software segment margin 20,801 / 30,452 = 68.3% (FY2017); 23,169 / 34,101 = 67.9% (FY2021); 26,126 / 41,086 = 63.6% (FY2023); 28,514 / 44,464 = 64.1% (FY2024); 30,930 / 49,230 = 62.8% (FY2025); 34,468 / 58,530 = 58.9% (FY2026); 7,691 / 12,907 = 59.6% (Q1 FY2026); 9,358 / 17,157 = 54.5% (Q1 FY2027); segment expenses 16,850 / 8,783 - 1 = 91.8%; segment revenue 58,530 / 44,464 - 1 = 31.6%; Q1 segment revenue 17,157 / 12,907 - 1 = 32.9%. Revenue growth 67,357 / 57,399 - 1 = 17.3%; FY2022 to FY2026 67,357 / 42,440 - 1 = 58.7%; Cerner share of FY2023 revenue 5,900 / 49,954 = 11.8%. Research and development 10,272 / 5,524 = 1.9 times; 10,272 / 67,357 = 15.3%. Sales and marketing 8,274 / 52,961 = 15.6% (FY2024); 8,651 / 57,399 = 15.1% (FY2025); 8,331 / 67,357 = 12.4% (FY2026); 8,331 / 8,651 - 1 = -3.7%; revenue per dollar of selling 52,961 / 8,274 = 6.4 and 67,357 / 8,331 = 8.1. Operating margin 15,353 / 52,961 = 29.0%; 17,678 / 57,399 = 30.8%; 20,606 / 67,357 = 30.6%; before amortisation (15,353 + 3,010) / 52,961 = 34.7%, (17,678 + 2,307) / 57,399 = 34.8%, (20,606 + 1,671) / 67,357 = 33.1%; amortisation 1,671 / 67,357 = 2.5%; non-GAAP less GAAP operating income 28.9 - 20.6 = 8.3 bn. Headcount 162,000 - 141,000 = 21,000, 21,000 / 162,000 = 13%. Headcount against the fiscal 2023 peak 164,000 - 141,000 = 23,000. Hardware FY2015 to FY2026 3,084 / 5,205 - 1 = -40.7%. Amortisation Q1 420 - 202 = 218. Stock compensation plus restructuring FY2026 4,811 + 1,838 = 6,649. Americas 44,478 / 36,339 - 1 = 22.4%; Americas share 23,679 / 42,440 = 55.8% (FY2022), 33,122 / 52,961 = 62.5% (FY2024), 44,478 / 67,357 = 66.0% (FY2026), 13,711 / 19,345 = 70.9% (Q1 FY2027); Asia Pacific 7,582 / 6,750 - 1 = 12.3%; EMEA plus Asia Pacific Q1 FY2027 3,726 + 1,908 = 5,634. US long-lived assets 102,717 / 45,439 = 2.3 times. Free cash flow FY2025 20,821 - 21,215 = -394; FY2024 18,673 - 6,866 = 11,807. Capital expenditure share of revenue 6,866 / 52,961 = 13%; 21,215 / 57,399 = 37%; 55,663 / 67,357 = 83%; 28,499 / 19,345 = 147%. Property added 127,845 - 99,957 = 27,888. Q1 FY2027 operating cash flow excluding prepayments 23,103 - 11,363 = 11,740; prepayments share 11,363 / 23,103 = 49%; free cash flow excluding prepayments -5,396 - 11,363 = -16,759. Borrowings 130,105 / 87,202 - 1 = 49%; net debt May 2025 92,568 - 10,786 - 417 = 81,365; May 2026 129,541 - 31,289 - 605 = 97,647; August 2026 7,625 + 117,712 - 36,369 - 708 = 88,260. Interest 1,428 / 923 - 1 = 55%; interest over operating income 1,428 / 6,728 = 21%. Leases not yet commenced over borrowings 288 / 125.3 = 2.3 times; over total assets 288 / 303.3 = 95%. Depreciation 3,156 / 1,351 = 2.3 times. Diluted shares 3,000 / 2,823 - 1 = 6.3%, 3,000 - 2,823 = 177 million; Ellison 1,158.2 / 3,023.7 = 38.3%; pledged 346 / 1,158 = 30%. Remaining performance obligations: 664 / 138 = 4.8 times; 664 / 455 - 1 = 46%; next twelve months 12% x 638 = 77 bn and 13% x 664 = 86 bn; beyond 36 months 100% - 13% - 37% = 50%; quarterly increases 455 - 138 = 317, 523 - 455 = 68, 553 - 523 = 30, 638 - 553 = 85, 664 - 638 = 26. Targets: 225 / 67.357 = 3.3 times; 225 - 24.5 = about 200 bn; 144 / 18 = 8 times; 20 / 2.4 = 8.3 times; Q1 FY2027 revenue 19,345 / 90,000 = 21.5% of guidance. Other: total assets 303,259 - 261,759 = 41,500 in one quarter; revenue FY2026 against FY2023 67,357 / 49,954 - 1 = 34.8%; cloud infrastructure Q1 FY2027 over Q4 FY2026 7,388 - 5,787 = 1,601; quarterly steps 4,079 - 3,347 = 732, 4,888 - 4,079 = 809, 5,787 - 4,888 = 899; cloud applications share 3,839 / 14,926 = 25.7% (Q1 FY2026) and 4,219 / 19,345 = 21.8% (Q1 FY2027); dividends over support 5,787 / 19,804 = 29.2%; interest, research and dividends 4,599 + 10,272 + 5,787 = 20,658; support FY2015 to FY2026 19,804 - 18,847 = 957; US revenue share 39,835 / 67,357 = 59.1%. Trailing twelve months to August 2026: revenue 67,357 - 14,926 + 19,345 = 71,776; net income 17,087 - 2,927 + 4,760 = 18,920; diluted EPS 5.83 - 1.01 + 1.56 = 6.38; P/E 421,930 / 18,920 = 22.3; P/S 421,930 / 71,776 = 5.88 - cash flow, capital spending, debt, leases, shares and backlog. — FY2015-Q1 FY2027 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Oracle's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  11. ReportedCommon shares outstanding were 3,023,736,000 on 7 September 2026.
    Oracle Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 31 August 2026 - segments, leases not yet commenced, the ATM share programme, RPO timing and shares outstanding. — Q1 FY2027 · publ. 11 September 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedOracle's annual report notes that its common stock ranks junior to the mandatory convertible preferred with respect to dividends and liquidation.
    Oracle Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 31 May 2026) - Item 1A risk factors: customer concentration and credit, multicloud, lease terms, credit ratings, export rules. — FY2026 · publ. 22 June 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedThe Series D shares pay 6.50%, and Oracle paid $103 million of preferred dividends in fiscal 2026, its first year with any.
    Oracle Form 8-K - 100,000,000 depositary shares of 6.50% Series D mandatory convertible preferred stock. — February 2026 · publ. 5 February 2026 · source ↗
  14. ReportedThe Series D shares pay 6.50%, and Oracle paid $103 million of preferred dividends in fiscal 2026, its first year with any.
    Oracle Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 31 May 2026) - financial statements and notes: income statement, cash flow, borrowings, leases, equity and commitments. — FY2026 · publ. 22 June 2026 · source ↗
  15. ReportedThat cost ranks ahead of the common dividend of $2.00 a share, which Oracle has kept paying through the build.
    Oracle Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 31 May 2026) - financial statements and notes: income statement, cash flow, borrowings, leases, equity and commitments. — FY2026 · publ. 22 June 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026