OpenAI: Roughly Half the BacklogThin moat

Oracle (ORCL) — moat facet

OpenAI is reportedly half of Oracle's $664 billion backlog, a single customer whose ability to pay will decide much of Oracle's next decade.

The largest customer in Oracle's future is one it has never named in its filings. On 30 June 2025 Oracle disclosed in an 8-K that it had entered into cloud services agreements including one expected to contribute more than $30 billion in annual revenue starting in fiscal 20281. The Wall Street Journal later reported that OpenAI had agreed to buy computing power worth $300 billion from Oracle over five years, starting in 20272. CNBC reported that Oracle secured a commitment from OpenAI in excess of $300 billion3.

The reported OpenAI commitment8-K, 30 June 2025one contract over $30bn a year from FY2028Reported value$300bn over five yearsReported start2027S&P view, July 2026roughly half of RPORPO, August 2026$664bnOracle 8-K June 2025; DCD on WSJ; CNBC; Investing.com on S&P; Q1 FY2027 release
One customer, half the order book.

S&P Global's view, reported in July 2026, was that OpenAI accounts for roughly half of Oracle's remaining performance obligations4. On a backlog of $664 billion5, half would be over $300 billion, consistent with the reported contract.

The contract's timing explains why the revenue has not yet appeared. It starts in 2027, and Oracle expects to recognise only about 13% of its backlog in the next twelve months6.

The concentration is of a new kind for Oracle. Its annual report says some customers may be highly leveraged and that its returns depend on key customers meeting their contractual obligations7. A customer that has committed to pay more than it currently earns is a credit exposure as much as a sales relationship.

The reported terms have grown over time. DatacenterDynamics noted that OpenAI had announced in July 2025 that it was sourcing 4.5 gigawatts of capacity from Oracle at $30 billion a year starting in 20288. The later reported value of $300 billion implied, by the publication's calculation, a much larger annual figure9. The exact terms have not appeared in Oracle's filings.

The OpenAI contract is the largest single fact in Oracle's future. What would change the verdict is any disclosure of a reduced or restructured commitment; the first sign would be a fall in remaining performance obligations in a quarter with no large new bookings.

Moat trajectory: Narrowing

Contract starts in 2027; S&P puts it at roughly half of RPO.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Share of remaining performance obligations due within twelve months
About 13% (Aug 2026), from about 12% in May

How fast the backlog becomes revenue; a large customer's contract starting in 2027 should lift it, and a flat share would mean delays.

Source: Oracle Form 10-Q, Q1 FY2027 ↗
References
  1. ReportedOn 30 June 2025 Oracle disclosed in an 8-K that it had entered into cloud services agreements including one expected to contribute more than $30 billion in annual revenue starting in fiscal 2028.
    Oracle Form 8-K, Item 7.01 - cloud services agreements including one expected to contribute more than $30 billion in annual revenue starting in fiscal 2028. — June 2025 · publ. 30 June 2025 · source ↗
  2. Third-party estimateThe Wall Street Journal later reported that OpenAI had agreed to buy computing power worth $300 billion from Oracle over five years, starting in 2027.
    DatacenterDynamics, OpenAI signs $300bn cloud deal with Oracle (report), citing the Wall Street Journal. — September 2025 · publ. 11 September 2025 · source ↗
  3. ReportedCNBC reported that Oracle secured a commitment from OpenAI in excess of $300 billion.
    CNBC, Oracle confirms Meta cloud deal; fiscal 2030 targets of $225 billion revenue and $21 EPS; AI infrastructure margins and AI database targets. — October 2025 · publ. 16 October 2025 · source ↗
  4. Third-party estimateS&P Global's view, reported in July 2026, was that OpenAI accounts for roughly half of Oracle's remaining performance obligations.
    Investing.com via Yahoo Finance, S&P downgrades Oracle to BBB-; S&P expects a negative $42 billion fiscal 2027 free operating cash flow and views OpenAI as roughly half of RPO. — July 2026 · publ. 9 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedOn a backlog of $664 billion, half would be over $300 billion, consistent with the reported contract.
    Oracle first-quarter fiscal 2027 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, with supplemental tables - income statement, cash flow statement and balance sheet. — Q1 FY2027 · publ. 10 September 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIt starts in 2027, and Oracle expects to recognise only about 13% of its backlog in the next twelve months.
    Oracle Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 31 August 2026 - segments, leases not yet commenced, the ATM share programme, RPO timing and shares outstanding. — Q1 FY2027 · publ. 11 September 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedIts annual report says some customers may be highly leveraged and that its returns depend on key customers meeting their contractual obligations.
    Oracle Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 31 May 2026) - Item 1A risk factors: customer concentration and credit, multicloud, lease terms, credit ratings, export rules. — FY2026 · publ. 22 June 2026 · source ↗
  8. Third-party estimateDatacenterDynamics noted that OpenAI had announced in July 2025 that it was sourcing 4.5 gigawatts of capacity from Oracle at $30 billion a year starting in 2028.
    DatacenterDynamics, OpenAI signs $300bn cloud deal with Oracle (report), citing the Wall Street Journal. — September 2025 · publ. 11 September 2025 · source ↗
  9. Third-party estimateThe later reported value of $300 billion implied, by the publication's calculation, a much larger annual figure.
    DatacenterDynamics, OpenAI signs $300bn cloud deal with Oracle (report), citing the Wall Street Journal. — September 2025 · publ. 11 September 2025 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026