⚠ A Dividend That Depends on the CycleLow threat

Lam Research (LRCX) — threat to the moat

Lam's dividend is small and was held through the 2024 downturn, but its own filing ties it to capital that is as cyclical as the business.

Lam's dividend is secure in a boom and less certain in a bust. The 10-K says the intent to continue paying quarterly dividends "is subject to capital availability" and to periodic board decisions1. For an equipment maker, capital availability rises and falls with orders.

Dividends paid ($M)116FY2015308FY2018727FY20211,019FY20241,271FY2026Lam Research XBRL filings (CF) and Form 10-K FY2026
Eleven times the cash paid in FY2015.

The payout has risen as a share of earnings. Dividends paid were 17.5% of net income in fiscal 20262, and the new $0.33 quarterly rate3 is about $1.32 a year on a share count near 1,251 million4.

In fiscal 2024, when revenue fell 14.5%, Lam still paid $1,018.9 million of dividends5, so it has held the dividend through one downturn.

Dividends paid grew from $116.1 million in fiscal 2015 to $727.0 million in fiscal 2021 and $1,270.6 million in fiscal 202667, dipping only once, in fiscal 20208. A record like that becomes a commitment the market expects to be kept, which is exactly what makes cutting it costly.

The one dip in cash paid came in fiscal 2020, when dividends paid fell from $678.3 million to $656.8 million9 even though the dividend declared per share rose from $0.44 to $0.46 on a split-adjusted basis10. Buybacks had shrunk the share count faster than the dividend rose.

The risk is less the dividend than the choice it forces. In a deep downturn Lam would have to choose between the dividend, buybacks and research. Research spending falling while the dividend is held would be the sign of the wrong choice.

References
  1. ReportedThe 10-K says the intent to continue paying quarterly dividends "is subject to capital availability" and to periodic board decisions.
    Lam Research Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 28 June 2026) - Item 1A risk factors: export controls, cyclicality, customers, suppliers and currencies. — FY2026 · publ. 7 August 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcDividends paid were 17.5% of net income in fiscal 2026, and the new $0.33 quarterly rate is about $1.32 a year on a share count near 1,251 million.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Lam Research's reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years end in late June). Revenue growth: FY2019 9,653.6 / 11,077.0 - 1 = -12.9%; FY2020 10,044.7 / 9,653.6 - 1 = +4.1%; FY2021 14,626.2 / 10,044.7 - 1 = +45.6%; FY2022 17,227.0 / 14,626.2 - 1 = +17.8%; FY2023 17,428.5 / 17,227.0 - 1 = +1.2%; FY2024 14,905.4 / 17,428.5 - 1 = -14.5%; FY2025 18,435.6 / 14,905.4 - 1 = +23.7%; revenue FY2015-FY2026 23,232.7 / 5,259.3 = 4.4 times. Q4 FY2026 revenue 6,722.2 / 5,171.4 - 1 = +30.0%; Q4 systems 4,249.8 / 3,437.6 - 1 = +23.6%; Q4 customer support 2,472.4 / 1,733.8 - 1 = +42.6%; FY2025 quarterly systems 3,437.6 / 2,392.7 - 1 = +43.7%. Revenue by type: systems FY2023 10,695.9 / 11,322.3 - 1 = -5.5%; FY2024 8,921.6 / 10,695.9 - 1 = -16.6%; customer support FY2023 6,732.6 / 5,904.8 - 1 = +14.0%; FY2024 5,983.7 / 6,732.6 - 1 = -11.1%, a fall of 748.9; FY2021 growth systems +47.4%, support +42.2%; FY2022 systems +16.0%, support +21.5%; FY2025 systems +28.8%, support +16.1%; FY2026 systems +29.5%, support +20.2%; support less systems growth -5.2, +5.5, +19.5, +5.5, -12.7, -9.3 points (FY2021-FY2026). Multiples FY2019-FY2026: customer support 8,347.2 / 3,202.5 = 2.6 times (14.7% a year); systems 14,885.5 / 6,451.1 = 2.3 times (12.7% a year). Cumulative FY2019-FY2026 customer support 45,396.0 of 125,553.6 = 36%. Customer support share of revenue: 3,202.5 / 9,653.6 = 33.2% (FY2019); 3,419.6 / 10,044.7 = 34.0%; 4,861.3 / 14,626.2 = 33.2%; 5,904.8 / 17,227.0 = 34.3%; 6,732.6 / 17,428.5 = 38.6%; 5,983.7 / 14,905.4 = 40.1% (FY2024); 6,944.3 / 18,435.6 = 37.7%; 8,347.2 / 23,232.7 = 35.9% (FY2026). Systems share 65.7%, 61.4%, 59.9%, 62.3%, 64.1% (FY2022-FY2026). Quarterly FY2026 support share 1,776.6 / 5,324.2 = 33.4%; 1,987.3 / 5,344.8 = 37.2%; 2,110.9 / 5,841.5 = 36.1%; 2,472.4 / 6,722.2 = 36.8%. Research and development 2,375.9 / 23,232.7 = 10.2% (FY2026); 825.2 / 5,259.3 = 15.7% (FY2015); 1,033.7 / 8,013.6 = 12.9% (FY2017); 1,191.3 / 9,653.6 = 12.3% (FY2019); 1,493.4 / 14,626.2 = 10.2% (FY2021); 1,727.2 / 17,428.5 = 9.9% (FY2023); 1,902.4 / 14,905.4 = 12.8% (FY2024); 2,375.9 / 825.2 = 2.9 times. Gross margin 2,284.3 / 5,259.3 = 43.4% (FY2015); 3,603.4 / 8,013.6 = 45.0% (FY2017); 4,358.5 / 9,653.6 = 45.1% (FY2019); 6,805.3 / 14,626.2 = 46.5% (FY2021); 7,776.9 / 17,428.5 = 44.6% (FY2023); 7,052.8 / 14,905.4 = 47.3% (FY2024). Operating margin 788.0 / 5,259.3 = 15.0% (FY2015); 1,902.1 / 8,013.6 = 23.7%; 2,464.7 / 9,653.6 = 25.5%; 4,482.0 / 14,626.2 = 30.6%; 5,174.9 / 17,428.5 = 29.7%; 4,263.9 / 14,905.4 = 28.6% (FY2024). Segment gross margin 12,120.0 / 23,232.7 = 52.2%. Region FY2026: China 7,859.8 / 23,232.7 = 33.8%; Taiwan 5,222.9 / 23,232.7 = 22.5%; Korea 4,505.3 / 23,232.7 = 19.4%; Japan 2,171.1 / 23,232.7 = 9.3%; Taiwan 5,222.9 / 3,445.2 - 1 = +51.6%; Korea 2,874.0 / 4,037.5 - 1 = -28.8%. China share 1,040.0 / 5,885.9 = 17.7% (FY2016); 1,784.4 / 11,077.0 = 16.1% (FY2018); 3,083.9 / 10,044.7 = 30.7% (FY2020); 5,137.9 / 14,626.2 = 35.1% (FY2021); 4,462.7 / 17,428.5 = 25.6% (FY2023). China revenue FY2022-FY2023 5,411.5 - 4,462.7 = 948.8 lower. Foundry plus memory 54 + 39 = 93%. Long-lived assets in the United States 2,003.4 / 3,353.8 = 60%. Customer concentration (percentages of total revenue): FY2026 16 + 15 + 12 + 12 = 55%; FY2025 17 + 15 = 32%; FY2024 17%; FY2023 22 + 16 = 38%; FY2022 21 + 12 + 12 + 11 = 56%; FY2021 25 + 12 + 10 = 47%; FY2020 24 + 14 + 10 + 10 = 58%; FY2019 15 + 14 + 14 + 14 = 57%; FY2018 25 + 14 + 14 + 13 + 12 = 78%. Accounts receivable June 2026 20 + 16 + 15 + 11 + 10 = 72%. Deferred revenue within a year 1,798.1 / 2,434.0 = 74%; deferred revenue against Q4 revenue 2,434.0 / 6,722.2 = 36%. Cash and capital: free cash flow 5,857.7 - 966.4 = 4,891.3 (FY2026); 6,173.3 - 759.2 = 5,414.1 (FY2025); 4,652.3 - 396.7 = 4,255.6 (FY2024). Shareholder returns 3,851.3 + 1,270.6 = 5,121.9, 5,121.9 / 4,891.3 = 104.7%; FY2025 (3,422.3 + 1,149.5) / 5,414.1 = 84.4%; FY2024 (2,842.8 + 1,018.9) / 4,255.6 = 90.7%. Dividends 1,270.6 / 7,265.4 = 17.5% of net income; 1,270.6 / 4,891.3 = 26% of free cash flow. Net cash 5,579.2 - 3,722.1 = 1,857.1 (FY2026); 6,390.7 - 4,469.4 = 1,921.3 (FY2025); 5,847.9 - 4,967.4 = 880.5 (FY2024). Treasury stock 31,597.9 / retained earnings 34,950.3 = 0.90. Per share: diluted shares 1,261.1 / 1,770.7 - 1 = -28.8% (FY2015 177.07M pre-split x 10); EPS 5.76 / 0.37 = 15.6 times; net income 7,265.4 / 655.6 = 11.1 times. Additional: Taiwan share 1,671.8 / 14,905.4 = 11.2% (FY2024), 3,477.9 / 17,428.5 = 20.0% (FY2023); Korea 2,205.3 / 3,832.8 - 1 = -42% (FY2019); research growth 2,096.4 / 1,902.4 - 1 = +10.2% (FY2025), 2,375.9 / 2,096.4 - 1 = +13.3% (FY2026); research staff 23,300 x 26% = more than 6,000; United States and Southeast Asia (1,528.9 + 1,245.9) / 23,232.7 = 12.0%; Southeast Asia 1,245.9 / 837.2 - 1 = +48.8%; systems FY2020 6,625.1 / 6,451.1 - 1 = +2.7%, support 3,419.6 / 3,202.5 - 1 = +6.8%; FY2022 to FY2025 support 6,944.3 / 5,904.8 - 1 = +17.6%, systems 11,491.3 / 11,322.3 - 1 = +1.5%; support March 2025 quarter 1,684.9 / 4,720.2 = 35.7%, 2,472.4 / 1,684.9 - 1 = +46.7%; support Q1 to Q4 FY2026 2,472.4 / 1,776.6 - 1 = +39.2%; deferred revenue 2,681 - 2,434 = 247 lower, 2,681 / 5,171.4 = 52% of the June 2025 quarter revenue; receivables 5,339.7 / 6,722.2 = 79%; return on equity 5,358.2 / ((8,539.5 + 9,861.6) / 2) = 58.2% (FY2025), 7,265.4 / ((9,861.6 + 12,470.9) / 2) = 65.1% (FY2026); market value 57.32 / 101.26 - 1 = -43% (calendar 2022); price target 373.13 / 307.16 - 1 = +21%; revenue 23,232.7 / 4,607.3 = 5.0 times (FY2014-FY2026); lab plan 3,000 / 5 = 600 a year. Further: Europe 698.7 / 23,232.7 = 3.0%; China 7,859.8 / 623.4 = 12.6 times (FY2014-FY2026); Korea 4,505.3 / 1,127.4 = 4.0 times; Taiwan 5,222.9 / 1,049.2 = 5.0 times; dividends declared per share 0.92 / 0.80 - 1 = +15%, 1.04 / 0.92 - 1 = +13%; diluted shares (1,261.1 / 1,319.9) ^ (1/2) - 1 = -2.3% a year; buybacks FY2015-FY2026 573.2 + 158.4 + 811.7 + 2,653.2 + 3,780.6 + 1,369.6 + 2,697.7 + 3,865.7 + 2,017.0 + 2,842.8 + 3,422.3 + 3,851.3 = 28,043.5; dividends paid 116.1 + 190.4 + 243.5 + 307.6 + 678.3 + 656.8 + 727.0 + 815.3 + 907.9 + 1,018.9 + 1,149.5 + 1,270.6 = 8,081.9; net income FY2015-FY2026 = 39,567.4; (28,043.5 + 8,081.9) / 39,567.4 = 91%; customer support fell only in FY2024 among FY2020-FY2026, systems fell in FY2023 and FY2024. Cash conversion: operating cash flow / net income 6,173.3 / 5,358.2 = 115% (FY2025); 5,857.7 / 7,265.4 = 81% (FY2026). Valuation: price 307.16 / 52-week high 438.50 - 1 = -30.0%; free cash flow yield 4,891.3 / 384,360 = 1.3%; P/E 384,360 / 7,265.4 = 52.9; P/S 384,360 / 23,232.7 = 16.5 - cash flow, shareholder returns, per-share figures and valuation. — FY2015-FY2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Lam Research's Forms 10-K, quarterly results releases, XBRL filings and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  3. ReportedDividends paid were 17.5% of net income in fiscal 2026, and the new $0.33 quarterly rate is about $1.32 a year on a share count near 1,251 million.
    PR Newswire, Lam Research announces a 27% increase in its quarterly dividend, from $0.26 to $0.33 per share. — August 2026 · publ. 27 August 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedDividends paid were 17.5% of net income in fiscal 2026, and the new $0.33 quarterly rate is about $1.32 a year on a share count near 1,251 million.
    Lam Research definitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) - 1,251,424,362 shares outstanding on 4 September 2026 and holders above 5%. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedIn fiscal 2024, when revenue fell 14.5%, Lam still paid $1,018.9 million of dividends, so it has held the dividend through one downturn.
    Lam Research Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 28 June 2026) - financial statements and notes: income, cash flow, balance sheet, deferred revenue, debt and customer concentration. — FY2026 · publ. 7 August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedDividends paid grew from $116.1 million in fiscal 2015 to $727.0 million in fiscal 2021 and $1,270.6 million in fiscal 2026, dipping only once, in fiscal 2020.
    SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts for Lam Research (CIK 707549) - revenue, gross profit, operating income, research and development, net income, diluted EPS and shares, buybacks and dividends for fiscal 2015-2026; per-share figures before fiscal 2023 are pre-split. — FY2015-FY2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedDividends paid grew from $116.1 million in fiscal 2015 to $727.0 million in fiscal 2021 and $1,270.6 million in fiscal 2026, dipping only once, in fiscal 2020.
    Lam Research Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 28 June 2026) - Item 1 business: products, strategy, competitors, customers and employees. — FY2026 · publ. 7 August 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedDividends paid grew from $116.1 million in fiscal 2015 to $727.0 million in fiscal 2021 and $1,270.6 million in fiscal 2026, dipping only once, in fiscal 2020.
    SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts for Lam Research (CIK 707549) - revenue, gross profit, operating income, research and development, net income, diluted EPS and shares, buybacks and dividends for fiscal 2015-2026; per-share figures before fiscal 2023 are pre-split. — FY2015-FY2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedThe one dip in cash paid came in fiscal 2020, when dividends paid fell from $678.3 million to $656.8 million even though the dividend declared per share rose from $0.44 to $0.46 on a split-adjusted basis.
    SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts for Lam Research (CIK 707549) - revenue, gross profit, operating income, research and development, net income, diluted EPS and shares, buybacks and dividends for fiscal 2015-2026; per-share figures before fiscal 2023 are pre-split. — FY2015-FY2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedThe one dip in cash paid came in fiscal 2020, when dividends paid fell from $678.3 million to $656.8 million even though the dividend declared per share rose from $0.44 to $0.46 on a split-adjusted basis.
    SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts for Lam Research (CIK 707549) - revenue, gross profit, operating income, research and development, net income, diluted EPS and shares, buybacks and dividends for fiscal 2015-2026; per-share figures before fiscal 2023 are pre-split. — FY2015-FY2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026