⚠ Export Rules Written in WashingtonHigh threat

Lam Research (LRCX) — threat to the moat

American export rules have cut China from 43% to 26% of Lam's quarterly revenue in a year, and each new round has been announced without warning.

Lam's largest market is governed by another country's rules. The 10-K says American export controls "have limited the market for our products, adversely impacted our revenues, and increased our exposure to foreign competition"1.

Rounds of US export rules and their estimated cost to LamOct 2022est. $2.0-2.5bnfor 2023FY2023China revenuedown $948.8MOct 2025new curbs, est.$600M in 2026Apr 2026halt of certainHua Hong salesJun 2026further curbsTechNode 2022; Lam 10-K FY2023; Finsee; Simply Wall St via Yahoo Finance 2026
Four rounds in four years.

The rules have come in rounds. After the October 2022 restrictions Tim Archer, the chief executive, estimated that Lam "could lose as much as $2 billion to $2.5 billion in revenue for the calendar year 2023", as TechNode reported2. China revenue fell from $5,411.5 million in fiscal 2022 to $4,462.7 million in fiscal 20233, a decline of $948.8 million4, then rebounded to $6,294.0 million in fiscal 2024, 42% of revenue5.

New restrictions on shipments to certain Chinese customers followed in late 2025; on the October 2025 call Lam put the headwind at about $200 million for the December 2025 quarter and about $600 million for calendar 20266. In April 2026 Lam was required to halt certain sales to Hua Hong7, and further curbs came in June8. No 10-K or 10-Q gives a dollar figure for these.

The result is visible in the quarterly share: China fell from 43% of revenue in the September 2025 quarter to 26% in the June 2026 quarter910. The multinational customers in China grew while domestic ones declined11.

The reach of the rules extends beyond American soil. The 10-K describes rules that can make foreign-made wafers and chipsets produced with Lam's products subject to American licensing if Huawei or its affiliates are party to a transaction12, and says these rules have required Lam to apply for additional export licenses to supply certain products to customers in China13.

China's own measures add a second front. Its rare-earth export controls were "suspended in part until November 2026"14, and Lam relies on single-source suppliers for some components15. A dispute that escalates on both sides would hit Lam's revenue and its supply chain at once.

This threat has already done much of its damage, and Lam has grown through it. What would reopen it is a rule reaching the multinational fabs in China, or the rare-earth controls, "suspended in part until November 2026"16, returning. A China share below 20% of quarterly revenue would say the next round has landed.

The number that tests this threat
Reported
China share of revenue, latest quarter
26% (Q4 FY2026), from 43% in Q1 FY2026

The market Washington controls; below 20% would say the next round of rules has landed.

Source: Lam Research Q4 FY2026 results release ↗
References
  1. ReportedThe 10-K says American export controls "have limited the market for our products, adversely impacted our revenues, and increased our exposure to foreign competition".
    Lam Research Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 28 June 2026) - Item 1A risk factors: export controls, cyclicality, customers, suppliers and currencies. — FY2026 · publ. 7 August 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedAfter the October 2022 restrictions Tim Archer, the chief executive, estimated that Lam "could lose as much as $2 billion to $2.5 billion in revenue for the calendar year 2023", as TechNode reported.
    TechNode, Lam Research could lose $2 billion to $2.5 billion of 2023 revenue from the October 2022 US export restrictions, according to Tim Archer. — October 2022 · publ. 21 October 2022 · source ↗
  3. ReportedChina revenue fell from $5,411.5 million in fiscal 2022 to $4,462.7 million in fiscal 2023, a decline of $948.8 million, then rebounded to $6,294.0 million in fiscal 2024, 42% of revenue.
    Lam Research Form 10-K for fiscal 2023 - revenue by type and by region for fiscal 2021-2023. — FY2023 · publ. August 2023 · source ↗
  4. Moat Explorer calcChina revenue fell from $5,411.5 million in fiscal 2022 to $4,462.7 million in fiscal 2023, a decline of $948.8 million, then rebounded to $6,294.0 million in fiscal 2024, 42% of revenue.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Lam Research's reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years end in late June). Revenue growth: FY2019 9,653.6 / 11,077.0 - 1 = -12.9%; FY2020 10,044.7 / 9,653.6 - 1 = +4.1%; FY2021 14,626.2 / 10,044.7 - 1 = +45.6%; FY2022 17,227.0 / 14,626.2 - 1 = +17.8%; FY2023 17,428.5 / 17,227.0 - 1 = +1.2%; FY2024 14,905.4 / 17,428.5 - 1 = -14.5%; FY2025 18,435.6 / 14,905.4 - 1 = +23.7%; revenue FY2015-FY2026 23,232.7 / 5,259.3 = 4.4 times. Q4 FY2026 revenue 6,722.2 / 5,171.4 - 1 = +30.0%; Q4 systems 4,249.8 / 3,437.6 - 1 = +23.6%; Q4 customer support 2,472.4 / 1,733.8 - 1 = +42.6%; FY2025 quarterly systems 3,437.6 / 2,392.7 - 1 = +43.7%. Revenue by type: systems FY2023 10,695.9 / 11,322.3 - 1 = -5.5%; FY2024 8,921.6 / 10,695.9 - 1 = -16.6%; customer support FY2023 6,732.6 / 5,904.8 - 1 = +14.0%; FY2024 5,983.7 / 6,732.6 - 1 = -11.1%, a fall of 748.9; FY2021 growth systems +47.4%, support +42.2%; FY2022 systems +16.0%, support +21.5%; FY2025 systems +28.8%, support +16.1%; FY2026 systems +29.5%, support +20.2%; support less systems growth -5.2, +5.5, +19.5, +5.5, -12.7, -9.3 points (FY2021-FY2026). Multiples FY2019-FY2026: customer support 8,347.2 / 3,202.5 = 2.6 times (14.7% a year); systems 14,885.5 / 6,451.1 = 2.3 times (12.7% a year). Cumulative FY2019-FY2026 customer support 45,396.0 of 125,553.6 = 36%. Customer support share of revenue: 3,202.5 / 9,653.6 = 33.2% (FY2019); 3,419.6 / 10,044.7 = 34.0%; 4,861.3 / 14,626.2 = 33.2%; 5,904.8 / 17,227.0 = 34.3%; 6,732.6 / 17,428.5 = 38.6%; 5,983.7 / 14,905.4 = 40.1% (FY2024); 6,944.3 / 18,435.6 = 37.7%; 8,347.2 / 23,232.7 = 35.9% (FY2026). Systems share 65.7%, 61.4%, 59.9%, 62.3%, 64.1% (FY2022-FY2026). Quarterly FY2026 support share 1,776.6 / 5,324.2 = 33.4%; 1,987.3 / 5,344.8 = 37.2%; 2,110.9 / 5,841.5 = 36.1%; 2,472.4 / 6,722.2 = 36.8%. Research and development 2,375.9 / 23,232.7 = 10.2% (FY2026); 825.2 / 5,259.3 = 15.7% (FY2015); 1,033.7 / 8,013.6 = 12.9% (FY2017); 1,191.3 / 9,653.6 = 12.3% (FY2019); 1,493.4 / 14,626.2 = 10.2% (FY2021); 1,727.2 / 17,428.5 = 9.9% (FY2023); 1,902.4 / 14,905.4 = 12.8% (FY2024); 2,375.9 / 825.2 = 2.9 times. Gross margin 2,284.3 / 5,259.3 = 43.4% (FY2015); 3,603.4 / 8,013.6 = 45.0% (FY2017); 4,358.5 / 9,653.6 = 45.1% (FY2019); 6,805.3 / 14,626.2 = 46.5% (FY2021); 7,776.9 / 17,428.5 = 44.6% (FY2023); 7,052.8 / 14,905.4 = 47.3% (FY2024). Operating margin 788.0 / 5,259.3 = 15.0% (FY2015); 1,902.1 / 8,013.6 = 23.7%; 2,464.7 / 9,653.6 = 25.5%; 4,482.0 / 14,626.2 = 30.6%; 5,174.9 / 17,428.5 = 29.7%; 4,263.9 / 14,905.4 = 28.6% (FY2024). Segment gross margin 12,120.0 / 23,232.7 = 52.2%. Region FY2026: China 7,859.8 / 23,232.7 = 33.8%; Taiwan 5,222.9 / 23,232.7 = 22.5%; Korea 4,505.3 / 23,232.7 = 19.4%; Japan 2,171.1 / 23,232.7 = 9.3%; Taiwan 5,222.9 / 3,445.2 - 1 = +51.6%; Korea 2,874.0 / 4,037.5 - 1 = -28.8%. China share 1,040.0 / 5,885.9 = 17.7% (FY2016); 1,784.4 / 11,077.0 = 16.1% (FY2018); 3,083.9 / 10,044.7 = 30.7% (FY2020); 5,137.9 / 14,626.2 = 35.1% (FY2021); 4,462.7 / 17,428.5 = 25.6% (FY2023). China revenue FY2022-FY2023 5,411.5 - 4,462.7 = 948.8 lower. Foundry plus memory 54 + 39 = 93%. Long-lived assets in the United States 2,003.4 / 3,353.8 = 60%. Customer concentration (percentages of total revenue): FY2026 16 + 15 + 12 + 12 = 55%; FY2025 17 + 15 = 32%; FY2024 17%; FY2023 22 + 16 = 38%; FY2022 21 + 12 + 12 + 11 = 56%; FY2021 25 + 12 + 10 = 47%; FY2020 24 + 14 + 10 + 10 = 58%; FY2019 15 + 14 + 14 + 14 = 57%; FY2018 25 + 14 + 14 + 13 + 12 = 78%. Accounts receivable June 2026 20 + 16 + 15 + 11 + 10 = 72%. Deferred revenue within a year 1,798.1 / 2,434.0 = 74%; deferred revenue against Q4 revenue 2,434.0 / 6,722.2 = 36%. Cash and capital: free cash flow 5,857.7 - 966.4 = 4,891.3 (FY2026); 6,173.3 - 759.2 = 5,414.1 (FY2025); 4,652.3 - 396.7 = 4,255.6 (FY2024). Shareholder returns 3,851.3 + 1,270.6 = 5,121.9, 5,121.9 / 4,891.3 = 104.7%; FY2025 (3,422.3 + 1,149.5) / 5,414.1 = 84.4%; FY2024 (2,842.8 + 1,018.9) / 4,255.6 = 90.7%. Dividends 1,270.6 / 7,265.4 = 17.5% of net income; 1,270.6 / 4,891.3 = 26% of free cash flow. Net cash 5,579.2 - 3,722.1 = 1,857.1 (FY2026); 6,390.7 - 4,469.4 = 1,921.3 (FY2025); 5,847.9 - 4,967.4 = 880.5 (FY2024). Treasury stock 31,597.9 / retained earnings 34,950.3 = 0.90. Per share: diluted shares 1,261.1 / 1,770.7 - 1 = -28.8% (FY2015 177.07M pre-split x 10); EPS 5.76 / 0.37 = 15.6 times; net income 7,265.4 / 655.6 = 11.1 times. Additional: Taiwan share 1,671.8 / 14,905.4 = 11.2% (FY2024), 3,477.9 / 17,428.5 = 20.0% (FY2023); Korea 2,205.3 / 3,832.8 - 1 = -42% (FY2019); research growth 2,096.4 / 1,902.4 - 1 = +10.2% (FY2025), 2,375.9 / 2,096.4 - 1 = +13.3% (FY2026); research staff 23,300 x 26% = more than 6,000; United States and Southeast Asia (1,528.9 + 1,245.9) / 23,232.7 = 12.0%; Southeast Asia 1,245.9 / 837.2 - 1 = +48.8%; systems FY2020 6,625.1 / 6,451.1 - 1 = +2.7%, support 3,419.6 / 3,202.5 - 1 = +6.8%; FY2022 to FY2025 support 6,944.3 / 5,904.8 - 1 = +17.6%, systems 11,491.3 / 11,322.3 - 1 = +1.5%; support March 2025 quarter 1,684.9 / 4,720.2 = 35.7%, 2,472.4 / 1,684.9 - 1 = +46.7%; support Q1 to Q4 FY2026 2,472.4 / 1,776.6 - 1 = +39.2%; deferred revenue 2,681 - 2,434 = 247 lower, 2,681 / 5,171.4 = 52% of the June 2025 quarter revenue; receivables 5,339.7 / 6,722.2 = 79%; return on equity 5,358.2 / ((8,539.5 + 9,861.6) / 2) = 58.2% (FY2025), 7,265.4 / ((9,861.6 + 12,470.9) / 2) = 65.1% (FY2026); market value 57.32 / 101.26 - 1 = -43% (calendar 2022); price target 373.13 / 307.16 - 1 = +21%; revenue 23,232.7 / 4,607.3 = 5.0 times (FY2014-FY2026); lab plan 3,000 / 5 = 600 a year. Further: Europe 698.7 / 23,232.7 = 3.0%; China 7,859.8 / 623.4 = 12.6 times (FY2014-FY2026); Korea 4,505.3 / 1,127.4 = 4.0 times; Taiwan 5,222.9 / 1,049.2 = 5.0 times; dividends declared per share 0.92 / 0.80 - 1 = +15%, 1.04 / 0.92 - 1 = +13%; diluted shares (1,261.1 / 1,319.9) ^ (1/2) - 1 = -2.3% a year; buybacks FY2015-FY2026 573.2 + 158.4 + 811.7 + 2,653.2 + 3,780.6 + 1,369.6 + 2,697.7 + 3,865.7 + 2,017.0 + 2,842.8 + 3,422.3 + 3,851.3 = 28,043.5; dividends paid 116.1 + 190.4 + 243.5 + 307.6 + 678.3 + 656.8 + 727.0 + 815.3 + 907.9 + 1,018.9 + 1,149.5 + 1,270.6 = 8,081.9; net income FY2015-FY2026 = 39,567.4; (28,043.5 + 8,081.9) / 39,567.4 = 91%; customer support fell only in FY2024 among FY2020-FY2026, systems fell in FY2023 and FY2024. Cash conversion: operating cash flow / net income 6,173.3 / 5,358.2 = 115% (FY2025); 5,857.7 / 7,265.4 = 81% (FY2026). Valuation: price 307.16 / 52-week high 438.50 - 1 = -30.0%; free cash flow yield 4,891.3 / 384,360 = 1.3%; P/E 384,360 / 7,265.4 = 52.9; P/S 384,360 / 23,232.7 = 16.5 - revenue mix, geography and customer concentration. — FY2015-FY2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Lam Research's Forms 10-K, quarterly results releases, XBRL filings and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  5. ReportedChina revenue fell from $5,411.5 million in fiscal 2022 to $4,462.7 million in fiscal 2023, a decline of $948.8 million, then rebounded to $6,294.0 million in fiscal 2024, 42% of revenue.
    Lam Research Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 28 June 2026) - Item 7 MD&A and revenue notes: revenue by type, region and end market, and margins. — FY2026 · publ. 7 August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedNew restrictions on shipments to certain Chinese customers followed in late 2025; on the October 2025 call Lam put the headwind at about $200 million for the December 2025 quarter and about $600 million for calendar 2026.
    Finsee review of Lam Research's Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings call - export-control headwind of about $200 million in the December 2025 quarter and about $600 million in calendar 2026. — Q1 FY2026 · publ. October 2025 · source ↗
  7. ReportedIn April 2026 Lam was required to halt certain sales to Hua Hong, and further curbs came in June.
    Simply Wall St via Yahoo Finance, Lam Research required to halt certain sales to Hua Hong and a five-year co-development agreement with IBM including High-NA EUV. — April 2026 · publ. 30 April 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedIn April 2026 Lam was required to halt certain sales to Hua Hong, and further curbs came in June.
    Simply Wall St via Yahoo Finance, new US restrictions on chip equipment shipments to Chinese customers in early June 2026. — June 2026 · publ. 8 June 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedThe result is visible in the quarterly share: China fell from 43% of revenue in the September 2025 quarter to 26% in the June 2026 quarter.
    Lam Research first-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue by type and region, with prior-year quarterly comparatives, and deferred revenue. — Q1 FY2026 · publ. 22 October 2025 · source ↗
  10. ReportedThe result is visible in the quarterly share: China fell from 43% of revenue in the September 2025 quarter to 26% in the June 2026 quarter.
    Lam Research fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue, margins, revenue by type and region, cash flow and September 2026 quarter guidance. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedThe multinational customers in China grew while domestic ones declined.
    The Motley Fool via Yahoo Finance, Lam Research Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript - installed base, end-market mix of systems revenue, WFE outlook, served market, customer support, China and margin targets - end-market mix of systems revenue, NAND, and China and Taiwan. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedThe 10-K describes rules that can make foreign-made wafers and chipsets produced with Lam's products subject to American licensing if Huawei or its affiliates are party to a transaction, and says these rules have required Lam to apply for additional export licenses to supply certain products to customers in China.
    Lam Research Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 28 June 2026) - Item 1A risk factors: export controls, cyclicality, customers, suppliers and currencies. — FY2026 · publ. 7 August 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedThe 10-K describes rules that can make foreign-made wafers and chipsets produced with Lam's products subject to American licensing if Huawei or its affiliates are party to a transaction, and says these rules have required Lam to apply for additional export licenses to supply certain products to customers in China.
    Lam Research Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 28 June 2026) - Item 1A risk factors: export controls, cyclicality, customers, suppliers and currencies. — FY2026 · publ. 7 August 2026 · source ↗
  14. ReportedIts rare-earth export controls were "suspended in part until November 2026", and Lam relies on single-source suppliers for some components.
    Lam Research Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 28 June 2026) - Item 1A risk factors: export controls, cyclicality, customers, suppliers and currencies. — FY2026 · publ. 7 August 2026 · source ↗
  15. ReportedIts rare-earth export controls were "suspended in part until November 2026", and Lam relies on single-source suppliers for some components.
    Lam Research Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 28 June 2026) - Item 1A risk factors: export controls, cyclicality, customers, suppliers and currencies. — FY2026 · publ. 7 August 2026 · source ↗
  16. ReportedWhat would reopen it is a rule reaching the multinational fabs in China, or the rare-earth controls, "suspended in part until November 2026", returning.
    Lam Research Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 28 June 2026) - Item 1A risk factors: export controls, cyclicality, customers, suppliers and currencies. — FY2026 · publ. 7 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026