✦ The 2027 SetupNarrow moat

Lam Research (LRCX) — the future bets

Lam guided 20% sequential growth for the September 2026 quarter and management calls the 2027 setup extraordinary.

Lam's most important bet is simply that its market keeps growing. On the June 2026 quarter call management said, "Looking into 2027, we see an extraordinary setup for WFE growth"1. It raised its 2026 wafer fab equipment outlook to the low $150 billion range2.

Quarterly revenue, actual and guided ($bn)5.84Q3 FY20266.72Q4 FY20268.10Q1 FY2027 guideLam Research Q3 and Q4 FY2026 results releases
A 20% step up guided.

The near-term guidance supports it. Lam guided revenue of $8.10 billion plus or minus $400 million for the September 2026 quarter3, which management said "represents more than 20% growth quarter-on-quarter"4, with a gross margin of 52.0% and an operating margin of 39.5% at the midpoint5.

The driver named on the call is artificial-intelligence infrastructure. Management's rule of thumb is that $100 billion of data-centre capital spending equates to roughly $8 billion of wafer fab equipment6.

Analysts already expect a great deal: fiscal 2027 revenue of $34.92 billion, up 50.3%7. That leaves little room for a delay.

The earnings guidance is steeper than the revenue guidance. Lam guided diluted earnings of $2.15 plus or minus $0.15 for the September 2026 quarter8, against $1.81 in June9. The operating margin guide of 39.5%10 is already close to management's mid-40s ambition11.

Analysts see the growth continuing beyond one year: the consensus for fiscal 2028 was revenue of $41.23 billion and earnings of $11.74 a share12. Both depend on a market Lam does not control, which is why its own guidance stops at one quarter.

The quarterly guide is the thing to read. A September quarter at or above $8.10 billion and a December guide higher again would confirm the setup; a guide below the prior quarter's revenue would mean the upswing peaked before the market expected.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Q1 FY2027 guided at $8.10bn, +20% q/q.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Revenue guidance, next quarter
$8.10bn +/- $0.4bn (Q1 FY2027)

The only forward number Lam gives; a guide below the prior quarter would mean the upswing has peaked.

Source: Lam Research Q4 FY2026 results release ↗
References
  1. ReportedOn the June 2026 quarter call management said, "Looking into 2027, we see an extraordinary setup for WFE growth".
    The Motley Fool via Yahoo Finance, Lam Research Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript - installed base, end-market mix of systems revenue, WFE outlook, served market, customer support, China and margin targets - wafer fab equipment outlook, served market, margins and growth targets. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIt raised its 2026 wafer fab equipment outlook to the low $150 billion range.
    The Motley Fool via Yahoo Finance, Lam Research Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript - installed base, end-market mix of systems revenue, WFE outlook, served market, customer support, China and margin targets - wafer fab equipment outlook, served market, margins and growth targets. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedLam guided revenue of $8.10 billion plus or minus $400 million for the September 2026 quarter, which management said "represents more than 20% growth quarter-on-quarter", with a gross margin of 52.0% and an operating margin of 39.5% at the midpoint.
    Lam Research fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue, margins, revenue by type and region, cash flow and September 2026 quarter guidance. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedLam guided revenue of $8.10 billion plus or minus $400 million for the September 2026 quarter, which management said "represents more than 20% growth quarter-on-quarter", with a gross margin of 52.0% and an operating margin of 39.5% at the midpoint.
    The Motley Fool via Yahoo Finance, Lam Research Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript - installed base, end-market mix of systems revenue, WFE outlook, served market, customer support, China and margin targets - wafer fab equipment outlook, served market, margins and growth targets. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedLam guided revenue of $8.10 billion plus or minus $400 million for the September 2026 quarter, which management said "represents more than 20% growth quarter-on-quarter", with a gross margin of 52.0% and an operating margin of 39.5% at the midpoint.
    Lam Research fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue, margins, revenue by type and region, cash flow and September 2026 quarter guidance. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedManagement's rule of thumb is that $100 billion of data-centre capital spending equates to roughly $8 billion of wafer fab equipment.
    The Motley Fool via Yahoo Finance, Lam Research Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript - installed base, end-market mix of systems revenue, WFE outlook, served market, customer support, China and margin targets - wafer fab equipment outlook, served market, margins and growth targets. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedAnalysts already expect a great deal: fiscal 2027 revenue of $34.92 billion, up 50.3%.
    Lam Research analyst forecast - fiscal 2027 revenue 34.92B (+50.31%) and EPS 9.51; fiscal 2028 revenue 41.23B and EPS 11.74. — September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedLam guided diluted earnings of $2.15 plus or minus $0.15 for the September 2026 quarter, against $1.81 in June.
    Lam Research fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue, margins, revenue by type and region, cash flow and September 2026 quarter guidance. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedLam guided diluted earnings of $2.15 plus or minus $0.15 for the September 2026 quarter, against $1.81 in June.
    Lam Research fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue, margins, revenue by type and region, cash flow and September 2026 quarter guidance. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedThe operating margin guide of 39.5% is already close to management's mid-40s ambition.
    Lam Research fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue, margins, revenue by type and region, cash flow and September 2026 quarter guidance. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedThe operating margin guide of 39.5% is already close to management's mid-40s ambition.
    The Motley Fool via Yahoo Finance, Lam Research Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript - installed base, end-market mix of systems revenue, WFE outlook, served market, customer support, China and margin targets - wafer fab equipment outlook, served market, margins and growth targets. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedAnalysts see the growth continuing beyond one year: the consensus for fiscal 2028 was revenue of $41.23 billion and earnings of $11.74 a share.
    Lam Research analyst forecast - fiscal 2027 revenue 34.92B (+50.31%) and EPS 9.51; fiscal 2028 revenue 41.23B and EPS 11.74. — September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026