⚠ Flash Went From 21% to 4%Moderate threat

Applied Materials (AMAT) — threat to the moat

Flash makers went from a fifth of Applied's machine sales to a twenty-fifth in three years, and DRAM makers could do the same.

If anyone doubts that a memory customer group can vanish, Applied's own flash numbers settle it. Flash memory makers took 21% of Semiconductor Systems revenue in fiscal 2020 and 20211, 15% in 2022, 6% in 2023 and 4% in 20242. They recovered to 7% in fiscal 20253, about $1.5 billion4.

Flash share of systems revenue (%)21%FY202021%FY202115%FY20226%FY20234%FY20247%FY2025Applied Materials Forms 10-K FY2022 and FY2025
A fifth of the business shrank to a twenty-fifth.

Flash makers stopped buying because they had too much capacity and prices fell. Nothing about Applied's tools changed; the customers simply did not need more wafers.

The same can happen to DRAM. The current strength rests on memory for AI processors, which commands high prices today. If those prices fall, DRAM makers will cut spending as the flash makers did.

The collapse also shows up in the backlog of those years. The systems backlog was $12,691 million at October 2022 and $11,127 million a year later5, before falling to $8,259 million at October 20246. Part of that decline was flash customers deferring tools they had ordered in the boom.

Flash has since come back, but only a little. Its share was 7% in fiscal 20257 and 6% in the first nine months of fiscal 20268. Five years after the collapse, it is still a third of what it was.

The flash share was 7% in the quarter to July 20269. A DRAM share that falls by half inside two years, as flash did from 2021 to 2023, would be the sign the second engine has stalled.

References
  1. ReportedFlash memory makers took 21% of Semiconductor Systems revenue in fiscal 2020 and 2021, 15% in 2022, 6% in 2023 and 4% in 2024.
    Applied Materials Form 10-K for fiscal 2022 - segment results for FY2020-FY2022 including Display and Adjacent Markets, employees, China revenue, the Kokusai termination fee and backlog. — FY2022 · publ. December 2022 · source ↗
  2. ReportedFlash memory makers took 21% of Semiconductor Systems revenue in fiscal 2020 and 2021, 15% in 2022, 6% in 2023 and 4% in 2024.
    Applied Materials Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 26 October 2025) - Semiconductor Systems revenue by end market. — FY2025 · publ. 12 December 2025 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThey recovered to 7% in fiscal 2025, about $1.5 billion.
    Applied Materials Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 26 October 2025) - Item 1 business: history, products, employees and strategy. — FY2025 · publ. 12 December 2025 · source ↗
  4. Moat Explorer calcThey recovered to 7% in fiscal 2025, about $1.5 billion.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Applied Materials' reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Segment shares FY2025: Semiconductor Systems 20,798 / 28,368 = 73.3%; Applied Global Services 6,385 / 28,368 = 22.5%; Corporate and Other 1,185 / 28,368 = 4.2%. Segment operating margins FY2025: 7,379 / 20,798 = 35.5%; 1,792 / 6,385 = 28.1%; FY2024 6,981 / 19,911 = 35.1%, 1,812 / 6,225 = 29.1%; FY2023 6,879 / 19,698 = 34.9%, 1,529 / 5,732 = 26.7%. Q3 FY2026 margins: Semiconductor Systems 2,657 / 7,040 = 37.7%; Applied Global Services 536 / 1,781 = 30.1%; company operating margin 3,075 / 9,115 = 33.7%. Q1 FY2026 Semiconductor Systems 1,427 / 5,141 = 27.8%. Nine months FY2026 6,176 / 18,146 = 34.0% and 1,461 / 5,005 = 29.2%. Growth Q3 FY2026: Semiconductor Systems 7,040 / 5,564 - 1 = 26.5% year on year and 7,040 / 5,965 - 1 = 18.0% on the quarter; Applied Global Services 1,781 / 1,463 - 1 = 21.7%; revenue 9,115 / 7,910 - 1 = 15.2% on the quarter; United States revenue 1,367 / 683 - 1 = 100%; Europe 483 / 160 = 3.0 times. Nine months: 18,146 / 16,562 - 1 = 9.6%; 5,005 / 4,236 - 1 = 18.2%. Segment history, revenue: Semiconductor Systems 11,367 (FY2020), 16,286, 18,797, 19,698, 19,911, 20,798 (FY2025), compound growth (20,798 / 11,367)^(1/5) - 1 = 12.8% a year; Applied Global Services 4,155, 5,013, 5,543, 5,732, 6,225, 6,385, compound growth (6,385 / 4,155)^(1/5) - 1 = 9.0% a year, 6,385 / 5,732 - 1 = 11.4% over two years; Corporate and Other including Display 1,607 + 73 = 1,680 (FY2020), 1,634 + 130 = 1,764 (FY2021), 1,331 + 114 = 1,445 (FY2022), 868 + 219 = 1,087, 885 + 155 = 1,040, 1,185 (FY2025); 1,185 / 1,680 - 1 = -29%. Display operating margin 235 / 1,060 = 22% (FY2025) and 51 / 885 = 6% (FY2024). DRAM equipment 26% x 20,798 = about 5,400; flash 7% x 20,798 = about 1,460. Company margins: gross 13,808 / 28,368 = 48.7% (FY2025), 12,897 / 27,176 = 47.5% (FY2024), 12,384 / 26,517 = 46.7% (FY2023); operating 8,289 / 28,368 = 29.2%. R&D 3,570 / 28,368 = 12.6%; 3,570 / 1,451 = 2.5 times (FY2015-FY2025). Effective tax 2,273 / 9,271 = 24.5% (FY2025) and 975 / 8,152 = 12.0% (FY2024). Revenue FY2019 14,608 / 16,705 - 1 = -12.6%. Diluted shares 808 / 1,226 - 1 = -34%. Revenue outside the United States 25,305 / 28,368 = 89%. China share of revenue: 5,456 / 17,202 = 31.7% (FY2020); 7,535 / 23,063 = 32.7%; 7,254 / 25,785 = 28.1%; 7,247 / 26,517 = 27.3%; 10,117 / 27,176 = 37.2% (FY2024); 8,529 / 28,368 = 30.1% (FY2025). Taiwan 6,857 / 4,010 - 1 = 71%. Two largest customers 19% + 15% = 34% (FY2025) and 20% + 14% = 34% (nine months FY2026). Backlog: 15,002 / 19,011 - 1 = -21% (October 2022 to October 2025); Semiconductor Systems 7,105 / 12,691 - 1 = -44%; Applied Global Services 7,141 / 5,643 - 1 = +27%; shares of backlog 7,141 / 15,002 = 48% and 7,105 / 15,002 = 47%. Contract liabilities 3,271 / 2,566 - 1 = +27%; receivables 7,691 / 5,185 - 1 = +48%. Cash: net cash 7,241 + 1,332 - 100 - 6,455 = 2,018 (October 2025); 8,022 + 1,449 - 799 - 5,460 = 3,212 (October 2024); 7,037 + 2,196 - 1,299 - 5,245 = 2,689 (July 2026). Payout 1,384 / 6,998 = 19.8%; dividends plus buybacks 1,384 + 4,893 = 6,277, 6,277 / 7,958 = 79% of operating cash flow. ROE 6,998 / ((20,415 + 19,001) / 2) = 35.5% (FY2025), 40.6% (FY2024), 48.0% (FY2023). Trailing twelve months to July 2026: revenue 6,800 + 24,037 = 30,837; net income 1,897 + 7,370 = 9,267; operating cash flow 2,828 + 5,568 = 8,396; capital expenditure 785 + 1,988 = 2,773. Implied FY2026 revenue at the guidance midpoint 24,037 + 10,250 = 34,287, 34,287 / 28,368 - 1 = 20.9%; fourth-quarter midpoint 10,250 / 6,800 - 1 = 50.7%; implied non-GAAP EPS 8.73 + 4.02 = 12.75. Market: 376,360 / 9,267 = 40.6 times trailing earnings; 376,360 / 30,837 = 12.2 times sales; price 474.25 / 723.00 - 1 = -34.4%; Lam Research 384.36 - 376.36 = 8.00 bn more market value. ASML 662.45 / 376.36 = 1.8 times; KLA 246.05 / 376.36 = 0.65. Calendar year-end 2025 P/E 203,780 / 6,998 = 29.1; fiscal year-end P/E 40.91 / 11.83 = 3.5 times the FY2022 low. Other: services growth FY2025 6,385 / 6,225 - 1 = 2.6%; company revenue 28,368 / 27,176 - 1 = 4.4%; dividends 1,384 / 7,958 = 17.4% of operating cash flow; two largest customers FY2024 12% + 11% = 23%; Korea 1,521 / 1,160 - 1 = 31%; Semiconductor Systems 20,798 / 11,367 = 1.83 times (FY2020-FY2025); Display 1,060 / 1,607 - 1 = -34%; net income 6,998 / 1,377 = 5.1 times and EPS 8.66 / 1.12 = 7.7 times (FY2015-FY2025); revenue 28,368 / 9,659 = 2.9 times; balance sheet build July 2026 6,564 + 7,691 + 5,606 = 19,861; Display revenue excluded from Corporate and Other FY2025 1,185 - 1,060 = 125. Revenue FY2024 27,176 / 26,517 - 1 = 2.5%; R&D Q4 917 / 858 - 1 = 6.9%; revenue 30,837 / 25,785 - 1 = 19.6% (FY2022 to trailing July 2026); strategic investment gains 755 + 949 = 1,704; China less Taiwan nine months 6,688 - 5,902 = 786; forward earnings implied 40.91 / 26.95 = 1.52 times trailing; Q4 guide 10,250 / 9,115 - 1 = 12.5% above Q3. Memory share of systems revenue: DRAM plus flash 19% + 21% = 40% (FY2021), 17% + 6% = 23% (FY2023), 26% + 7% = 33% (FY2025). Market value 376,360 / 182,232 = 2.07 times the FY2025 year-end value; trailing net income 9,267 / 6,998 - 1 = 32%. Operating income 8,289 / 1,693 = 4.9 times (FY2015-FY2025). P/E gap to Lam 57.7 - 40.9 = 16.8. Q3 FY2026 returns 860 / 3,037 = 28% of operating cash flow. China plus Taiwan nine months (6,688 + 5,902) / 24,037 = 52%. Systems revenue Q1 to Q3 FY2026 7,040 / 5,141 - 1 = 37%. Systems share of segment operating income FY2025 7,379 / (7,379 + 1,792) = 7,379 / 9,171 = 80%. Systems R&D 3,042 / 20,798 = 14.6%. Third quarter share of nine-month systems profit 2,657 / 6,176 = 43%. Services FY2024 6,225 / 5,732 - 1 = 8.6%. Services share of backlog 4,335 / 11,758 = 37% (October 2021). Research per diluted share 1,451 / 1,226 = 1.18 (FY2015) and 3,570 / 808 = 4.42 (FY2025). Net cash plus long-term investments 2,689 + 5,268 = 7,957. Dividends per share 1.78 / 1.22 - 1 = 46%. ROE 35.5% / 10% = 3.5 times - segment shares, margins and growth - segment revenue shares and growth. — FY2015-FY2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Applied Materials' Forms 10-K and 10-Q, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  5. ReportedThe systems backlog was $12,691 million at October 2022 and $11,127 million a year later, before falling to $8,259 million at October 2024.
    Applied Materials Form 10-K for fiscal 2024 - four-segment results including Display for FY2022-FY2024, customer concentration naming Samsung and TSMC, backlog at October 2024. — FY2024 · publ. December 2024 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe systems backlog was $12,691 million at October 2022 and $11,127 million a year later, before falling to $8,259 million at October 2024.
    Applied Materials Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 26 October 2025) - backlog by segment. — FY2025 · publ. 12 December 2025 · source ↗
  7. ReportedIts share was 7% in fiscal 2025 and 6% in the first nine months of fiscal 2026.
    Applied Materials Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 26 October 2025) - Item 1 business: history, products, employees and strategy. — FY2025 · publ. 12 December 2025 · source ↗
  8. ReportedIts share was 7% in fiscal 2025 and 6% in the first nine months of fiscal 2026.
    Applied Materials Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 26 July 2026 - FY2026 segment basis (200mm moved to Semiconductor Systems), nine-month results, customer concentration, geography, the BIS settlement and the balance sheet - nine-month results, customer concentration, geography, capital returns and legal matters. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 20 August 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedThe flash share was 7% in the quarter to July 2026.
    Applied Materials third-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - record revenue, segment results, revenue by geography, employees and fourth-quarter guidance - segment results and end-market mix. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 13 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026