Community & State: $94 Billion From Medicaid ProgramsThin moat

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) — moat facet

Medicaid brought UnitedHealthcare $94 billion in 2025 from fewer members than two years before, at rates the states set.

UnitedHealthcare's Medicaid business is large and runs on contracts with states. Community & State had revenue of $75,004 million in 2023, $80,570 million in 2024 and $94,390 million in 20251, and it operates in 32 states and the District of Columbia2.

Community and State revenue ($M)75,004202380,570202494,3902025UnitedHealth Group Form 10-K FY2025
Up 26% in two years on fewer members.

Membership moved the other way. Medicaid members were 7,845,000 at the end of 2023, 7,435,000 in 2024 and 7,380,000 in 20253, and 6,780,000 in June 20264. Revenue per member rose accordingly, from about $9,600 to about $12,800 a year between 2023 and 20255, as the people who stayed on Medicaid were, on average, those needing more care.

That is the nature of this business: the state sets the rate, decides who is eligible and renews the contract. UnitedHealthcare's edge is operational, the ability to run a Medicaid plan in many states at once and to win re-procurements.

The second quarter of 2026 showed the limits. Community & State revenue was $23,635 million6, and people served contracted by 380,000 in the quarter, primarily because of a planned state exit7.

The quarterly revenue shows the plateau. Community & State revenue was $23.6 billion in the second quarter of 2026 against $23.7 billion a year earlier8. After two years of growth driven by rising revenue per member, the business is now roughly flat as membership falls and one state contract ends.

The moat here is thin: a good operator in a market where the customer writes the price. Revenue per member is the number that decides it; if it keeps rising faster than medical costs, the state rates are adequate; if it lags, the business earns little on its $94 billion.

Moat trajectory: Narrowing

Membership 7.8m to 6.8m; one state exit in 2026.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Community & State revenue, latest quarter
$23,635M (Q2 2026)

The Medicaid book under state rates; a steady fall would mean exits and eligibility cuts are shrinking it faster than rates rise.

Source: UnitedHealth Group Q2 2026 results release ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
Eligibility Is Decided by States
UnitedHealthcare's Medicaid membership fell 14% in two and a half years, because states decided who stays eligible.
References
  1. ReportedCommunity & State had revenue of $75,004 million in 2023, $80,570 million in 2024 and $94,390 million in 2025, and it operates in 32 states and the District of Columbia.
    UnitedHealth Group Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 MD&A: consolidated and segment results, medical care ratio, membership and operating metrics. — FY2025 · publ. 2 March 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedCommunity & State had revenue of $75,004 million in 2023, $80,570 million in 2024 and $94,390 million in 2025, and it operates in 32 states and the District of Columbia.
    UnitedHealth Group Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 MD&A: consolidated and segment results, medical care ratio, membership and operating metrics. — FY2025 · publ. 2 March 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedMedicaid members were 7,845,000 at the end of 2023, 7,435,000 in 2024 and 7,380,000 in 2025, and 6,780,000 in June 2026.
    UnitedHealth Group Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 MD&A: consolidated and segment results, medical care ratio, membership and operating metrics. — FY2025 · publ. 2 March 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedMedicaid members were 7,845,000 at the end of 2023, 7,435,000 in 2024 and 7,380,000 in 2025, and 6,780,000 in June 2026.
    UnitedHealth Group second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment results, operating metrics and people served. — Q2 2026 · publ. 16 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. Moat Explorer calcRevenue per member rose accordingly, from about $9,600 to about $12,800 a year between 2023 and 2025, as the people who stayed on Medicaid were, on average, those needing more care.
    Moat Explorer calculation from UnitedHealth Group's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). External revenue by segment = segment revenue less affiliated revenue (10-K segment notes): 2021 UnitedHealthcare 222,899; Optum Health 54,065 - 29,234 = 24,831; Optum Insight 12,199 - 7,867 = 4,332; Optum Rx 91,314 - 55,779 = 35,535; total 287,597. 2022: 249,741; 71,174 - 40,883 = 30,291; 14,581 - 9,288 = 5,293; 99,773 - 60,936 = 38,837; total 324,162. 2023: 281,360; 95,319 - 57,696 = 37,623; 18,932 - 10,896 = 8,036; 116,087 - 71,484 = 44,603; total 371,622. 2024: 298,208; 105,358 - 63,883 = 41,475; 18,757 - 11,881 = 6,876; 133,231 - 79,512 = 53,719; total 400,278. 2025: 344,903; 101,957 - 63,615 = 38,342; 19,417 - 12,948 = 6,469; 154,726 - 96,873 = 57,853; total 447,567. Q2 2026 (2026 basis): 86,017; 23,472 - 14,353 = 9,119; 5,402 - 3,556 = 1,846; 38,292 - 23,242 = 15,050; total 112,032; Optum external 9,119 + 1,846 + 15,050 = 26,015. Optum external revenue = Optum revenue less corporate eliminations: 155,565 - 90,867 = 64,698 (2021); 182,768 - 108,347 = 74,421 (2022); 226,635 - 136,373 = 90,262 (2023); 252,957 - 150,887 = 102,070 (2024); 270,620 - 167,956 = 102,664 (2025); 102,664 / 102,070 - 1 = 0.6%. Optum revenue from inside the group: 90,867 / 155,565 = 58.4%; 108,347 / 182,768 = 59.3%; 136,373 / 226,635 = 60.2%; 150,887 / 252,957 = 59.6%; 167,956 / 270,620 = 62.1%; Q2 2026 39,648 / 65,663 = 60.4%. Affiliated shares 2025: Optum Health 63,615 / 101,957 = 62%; Optum Insight 12,948 / 19,417 = 67%; Optum Rx 96,873 / 154,726 = 63%. Affiliated revenue as share of UnitedHealthcare revenue 167,956 / 344,903 = 49%. Segment shares of consolidated revenue 2025: UnitedHealthcare 344,903 / 447,567 = 77%; Optum Rx 57,853 / 447,567 = 12.9%; Optum Health 38,342 / 447,567 = 8.6%; Optum Insight 6,469 / 447,567 = 1.4%. Q2 2026 UnitedHealthcare 86,017 / 112,032 = 76.8%. Compound growth 2021-2025: UnitedHealthcare (344,903 / 222,899)^(1/4) - 1 = 11.5%; Optum Rx external (57,853 / 35,535)^(1/4) - 1 = 13.0%. Segment margins: UnitedHealthcare 11,975 / 222,899 = 5.4% (2021), 14,379 / 249,741 = 5.8% (2022); Optum Rx 4,135 / 91,314 = 4.5% (2021), 4,436 / 99,773 = 4.4% (2022); Optum Insight 3,398 / 12,199 = 27.9% (2021), 3,588 / 14,581 = 24.6% (2022); Optum Health H1 2026 2,331 / 47,581 = 4.9%. Optum earnings decline 16,703 - 9,539 = 7,164, 7,164 / 16,703 = 42.9%. Optum Health H1 2026 revenue 47,581 / 49,562 - 1 = -4.0%; earnings 2,331 / 1,840 - 1 = +26.7%; affiliated revenue Q2 14,353 / 15,845 - 1 = -9.4%. Optum Health 2025 recast margin -1,115 / 100,051 = -1.1%; 2024 6,902 / 103,516 = 6.7%. Medical care ratio 2015-2019 from EDGAR XBRL medical costs / premiums: 103,875 / 127,163 = 81.7%; 117,038 / 144,118 = 81.2%; 130,036 / 158,453 = 82.1%; 145,403 / 178,087 = 81.6%; 156,440 / 189,699 = 82.5%. Premiums 127,163 (2015) and 257,157 (2022). Operating earnings 11,021 (2015, XBRL). One point of medical care ratio on 2025 premiums: 352,229 x 1% = 3,522; 3,522 / 18,964 = 18.6% of operating earnings. Q2 2026 favorable development 860 / 86,956 premiums = 1.0 point. Membership: commercial risk-based 8,845 - 7,655 = 1,190 thousand, 1,190 / 8,845 = 13.5%; Medicare Advantage 8,445 - 7,565 = 880 thousand, 880 / 8,445 = 10.4%; Medicaid 7,845 - 6,780 = 1,065 thousand, 1,065 / 7,845 = 13.6%; Part D stand-alone (3,315 - 2,710) / 3,315 = 18.3%. Community & State revenue per year-end Medicaid member 75,004 / 7.845 = 9,561 dollars (2023); 94,390 / 7.380 = 12,790 dollars (2025). Optum Rx quarterly scripts (414 - 387) / 414 = 6.5%. Optum Insight backlog: external 32.8 - 12.5 = 20.3 bn (2024), 31.1 - 12.9 = 18.2 bn (2025), change -10.3%; affiliated share 12.5 / 32.8 = 38%, 12.9 / 31.1 = 41%. Cyberattack provider loans 9,033 - 4,514 - 1,680 = 2,839 not yet repaid at end-2025. Market value against peers: 108.78 + 86.37 + 70.16 + 45.67 + 30.59 + 10.07 = 351.64 bn; 338.03 / 351.64 = 96%. CMS premium revenue 44% x 447,567 = 196,929 (about 197 bn); all other 447,567 - 196,929 = 250,638. Medicare & Retirement share of UnitedHealthcare revenue Q2 2026: 42,390 / 86,017 = 49.3%. Premiums share of revenue Q2 2026: 86,956 / 112,032 = 77.6%. Capital returns 2025: dividends 7,916 + buybacks 5,545 = 13,461; 13,461 / 12,056 = 112% of net earnings; free cash flow 19,697 - 3,622 = 16,075; 13,461 / 16,075 = 84%. Goodwill 44,453 (2015, XBRL) and 110,499 (2025); goodwill plus other intangibles 110,499 + 20,474 = 130,973; 130,973 / 309,581 = 42.3% of assets. Long-term debt 25,331 (2015, XBRL). Interest expense / operating earnings: 3,246 / 32,358 = 10.0% (2023); 4,002 / 18,964 = 21.1% (2025). Rate sensitivity net 345 - 273 = 72. Investment income (3,920 - 5,202) / 5,202 = -24.6%; 4,089 / 371,622 = 1.1% of 2023 revenue. Net interest-bearing debt: 6,069 + 72,320 - 28,121 = 50,268 (Dec 2025); 3,827 + 69,501 - 31,468 = 41,860 (Jun 2026). 2025 guidance: original adjusted EPS midpoint (29.50 + 30.00) / 2 = 29.75; April (26.00 + 26.50) / 2 = 26.25; actual 16.35 / 29.75 - 1 = -45%. 2026 adjusted EPS midpoint (19.50 + 20.00) / 2 = 19.75. Progress vs 2026 guidance: operating earnings 16,981 / 25,450 = 66.7%. Q2 2026 operating earnings 7,991 / 5,150 - 1 = +55%. Gross segment revenue 2025: 344,903 + 101,957 + 19,417 + 154,726 = 621,003; less Optum eliminations 5,480 and corporate eliminations 167,956 = 447,567. Medical costs 313,995 / 264,185 - 1 = 18.9%; medical costs payable 39,337 / 34,224 - 1 = 14.9%. Commercial risk-based members 8,165 - 7,725 = 440 thousand (Q1 2026), 7,725 - 7,655 = 70 thousand (Q2 2026). Medicaid 7,380 - 6,780 = 600 thousand (six months to June 2026); 7,845 - 7,380 = 465 thousand (2023-2025). Optum Rx Q4 2025 share of year 2,885 / 7,193 = 40%. Goodwill 110,499 - 106,734 = 3,765. Total debt 6,069 + 72,320 = 78,389. Dividend at 9.28 x 897.6 million shares = 8,330, 8,330 / 16,750 = 50%. Year-end P/E 2015-2020: 19.3, 21.7, 20.2, 20.0, 20.1, 21.6 (market value / net earnings). H1 2026 medical care ratio 148,847 / 174,517 = 85.3%. Part D stand-alone 2,740 - 2,710 = 30 thousand (Q2 2026). Rounded external revenue ($bn): Optum Rx 35.5, 38.8, 44.6, 53.7, 57.9 (2021-2025), 15.1 (Q2 2026); Optum Health 24.8, 30.3, 37.6, 41.5, 38.3, 9.1 (Q2 2026); Optum Insight 4.3, 5.3, 8.0, 6.9, 6.5, 1.8 (Q2 2026); Optum 64.7, 74.4, 90.3, 102.1, 102.7; net debt 50.3 and 41.9; total debt 78.4; UnitedHealthcare revenue 222.9, 249.7, 281.4, 298.2, 344.9. Optum 2026 guidance 13,450 / 9,539 - 1 = +41%. Corporate eliminations Q2 39,648 / 41,712 - 1 = -4.9%. Net interest-bearing debt / total equity 50,268 / 100,090 = 0.50. Valuation: 2026 net margin implied by guidance 16,750 / 439,000 = 3.8%; 2023 net margin 6.0% x 439.0 bn = 26.3 bn; 338.03 / 26.34 = 12.8 times - ratios, growth rates and membership changes. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in UnitedHealth Group's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, results releases, SEC EDGAR XBRL and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  6. ReportedCommunity & State revenue was $23,635 million, and people served contracted by 380,000 in the quarter, primarily because of a planned state exit.
    UnitedHealth Group second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment results, operating metrics and people served. — Q2 2026 · publ. 16 July 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedCommunity & State revenue was $23,635 million, and people served contracted by 380,000 in the quarter, primarily because of a planned state exit.
    UnitedHealth Group second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment results, operating metrics and people served. — Q2 2026 · publ. 16 July 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedCommunity & State revenue was $23.6 billion in the second quarter of 2026 against $23.7 billion a year earlier.
    UnitedHealth Group second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment results, operating metrics and people served. — Q2 2026 · publ. 16 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 26, 2026