A Thirteen-Week Backlog, Not DisclosedThin moat

Analog Devices (ADI) — moat facet

ADI defines backlog as orders due within thirteen weeks and publishes no figure, so the concentration of its future orders cannot be checked.

Revenue concentration is one question; how concentrated and how firm the future orders are is another, and ADI answers it only in words. The 10-K defines the term: "We define backlog to mean firm orders from a customer or distributor with a requested delivery date within thirteen weeks."1 It lists backlog among the factors it uses "to assess future customer demand"2, but it does not publish a figure, and there is no remaining-performance-obligation disclosure of the kind larger contracts would produce.

Analog Devices days sales outstanding (days)54FY202446FY2025Analog Devices Form 10-K FY2025, liquidity
Customers paid eight days faster in fiscal 2025.

A thirteen-week horizon says a great deal about the business. ADI sells parts, not multi-year contracts. Customers order a quarter ahead, and the company warns that backlog "may be" affected by "the tendency of customers to rely on shorter lead times available from suppliers, including us, in periods of depressed demand"3. When supply is plentiful, customers order late; when it is tight, they order early and often too much.

That is why the company guides only one quarter ahead. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 it expects revenue of "$4.3 billion, +/- $100 million"4, and it gives no full-year figure.

What can be measured is collection. Days sales outstanding were 46 in fiscal 2025 and 54 in 20245. Receivables then rose from $1,436.1 million to $2,389.6 million in the first nine months of fiscal 20266, which is argued on Receivables Up Two-Thirds.

The lack of a backlog number means concentration in future orders cannot be checked. If ADI begins disclosing long-term supply agreements or customer prepayments, as some chipmakers do in shortages, that would be the sign that a few large buyers are locking in supply, and the flat customer list of the past would no longer describe the future.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Backlog defined but not disclosed; guidance one quarter ahead.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Days sales outstanding, full year
46 days (FY2025), from 54 in FY2024

How fast customers pay; above 55 would mean the channel is being financed by ADI.

Source: Analog Devices Form 10-K, FY2025 ↗
References
  1. ReportedThe 10-K defines the term: "We define backlog to mean firm orders from a customer or distributor with a requested delivery date within thirteen weeks." It lists backlog among the factors it uses "to assess future customer demand", but it does not publish a figure, and there is no remaining-performance-obligation disclosure of the kind larger contracts would produce.
    Analog Devices Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 1 November 2025) - revenue by end market, sales channel and geography, and significant distributors. — FY2025 · publ. 25 November 2025 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe 10-K defines the term: "We define backlog to mean firm orders from a customer or distributor with a requested delivery date within thirteen weeks." It lists backlog among the factors it uses "to assess future customer demand", but it does not publish a figure, and there is no remaining-performance-obligation disclosure of the kind larger contracts would produce.
    Analog Devices Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 1 November 2025) - revenue by end market, sales channel and geography, and significant distributors. — FY2025 · publ. 25 November 2025 · source ↗
  3. ReportedCustomers order a quarter ahead, and the company warns that backlog "may be" affected by "the tendency of customers to rely on shorter lead times available from suppliers, including us, in periods of depressed demand".
    Analog Devices Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 1 November 2025) - Item 1A risk factors: foundries, Taiwan, distributors, trade, state-backed competitors and variable consideration. — FY2025 · publ. 25 November 2025 · source ↗
  4. ReportedFor the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 it expects revenue of "$4.3 billion, +/- $100 million", and it gives no full-year figure.
    Analog Devices third-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue by end market, margins, EPS, cash flow, balance sheet and fourth-quarter guidance - highlights, income statement, adjusted measures and fourth-quarter guidance. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 19 August 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedDays sales outstanding were 46 in fiscal 2025 and 54 in 2024.
    Analog Devices Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 1 November 2025) - financial statements, MD&A and notes: income, margins, cash flow, capital returns and debt. — FY2025 · publ. 25 November 2025 · source ↗
  6. ReportedReceivables then rose from $1,436.1 million to $2,389.6 million in the first nine months of fiscal 2026, which is argued on Receivables Up Two-Thirds.
    Analog Devices third-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue by end market, margins, EPS, cash flow, balance sheet and fourth-quarter guidance - cash flow, capital returns and balance sheet. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 19 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 29, 2026