⚠ Revenue Was Lower in 2025 Than in 2022Moderate threat

Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) — threat to the moat

Thermo Fisher bought about $38.9 billion of businesses since 2021 and its 2025 revenue was still below 2022's.

For all the purchases, revenue has not grown since 2022. It was $44,915 million in 20221 and $44,556 million in 20252. In between it was $42,857 million and $42,879 million3.

Revenue ($M)44,915202242,857202342,879202444,5562025Thermo Fisher Forms 10-K FY2023 and FY2025
Four years to get back to where it was.

The acquisitions filled the hole left by pandemic sales rather than adding to a growing base. COVID testing alone fell from $3.11 billion in 2022 to $0.33 billion in 20234.

That is a defensible use of capital, but it means the $38.9 billion5 bought stability, not growth.

Adjusted earnings tell the same story. Adjusted earnings per share were $23.24 in 20226 and $22.87 in 20257, lower despite three years of buybacks and acquisitions. Only in 2026 are they guided above the 2022 level.

Profit followed revenue down. Operating income was $8,393 million in 20228 and $7,746 million in 20259; net income attributable to the company was $6,950 million in 202210 and $6,704 million in 202511. Core organic growth in 2023, the trough year, was 1%12. Three years of acquisitions, then, left the income statement smaller than it was at the end of the pandemic, not larger.

Adjusted earnings barely moved in between: $21.55 a share in 202313 and $21.86 in 202414. Two years of flat adjusted earnings, in a company spending billions on acquisitions and buybacks, is what bought stability looks like in the numbers investors watch most.

2026 should break the pattern: revenue is guided to $47.4 billion to $48.1 billion15. Anything below $46 billion would say even the acquisitions cannot outrun the base.

References
  1. ReportedIt was $44,915 million in 2022 and $44,556 million in 2025.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific Form 10-K for fiscal 2023 - segment revenue and income for 2021-2023, COVID-19 testing revenue, remaining performance obligations, the geographic table without a China line, and the Binding Site and CorEvitas acquisitions. — FY2023 · publ. February 2024 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIt was $44,915 million in 2022 and $44,556 million in 2025.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements: income, cash flow, repurchases, debt and equity. — FY2025 · publ. 26 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIn between it was $42,857 million and $42,879 million.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements: income, cash flow, repurchases, debt and equity. — FY2025 · publ. 26 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedCOVID testing alone fell from $3.11 billion in 2022 to $0.33 billion in 2023.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific Form 10-K for fiscal 2023 - segment revenue and income for 2021-2023, COVID-19 testing revenue, remaining performance obligations, the geographic table without a China line, and the Binding Site and CorEvitas acquisitions. — FY2023 · publ. February 2024 · source ↗
  5. Moat Explorer calcThat is a defensible use of capital, but it means the $38.9 billion bought stability, not growth.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Thermo Fisher's reported financial statements, results releases, earnings calls and market data ($ millions unless stated). Revenue by type: consumables + services share (18,664 + 18,592) / 44,556 = 83.6% (2025); (12,576 + 5,490) / 24,358 = 74.2% (2018); (13,109 + 6,046) / 25,542 = 75.0% (2019); (18,527 + 6,912) / 32,218 = 79.0% (2020); (22,608 + 8,850) / 39,211 = 80.2% (2021); (20,624 + 16,367) / 44,915 = 82.4% (2022); (17,597 + 17,614) / 42,857 = 82.2% (2023); (17,587 + 17,845) / 42,879 = 82.6% (2024); H1 2026 (9,794 + 9,899) / 22,999 = 85.6%. Instruments 7,301 / 7,924 - 1 = -7.9% (2022-2025), a fall of 623. Consumables 18,664 / 17,587 - 1 = 6.1%. Services 18,592 / 17,845 - 1 = 4.2%. Gross margin by type 2025: products (25,965 - 13,405) / 25,965 = 48.4%; services (18,592 - 12,913) / 18,592 = 30.5%; total (44,556 - 13,405 - 12,913) / 44,556 = 40.9%. Businesses: BioProduction 2,652 / 2,923 - 1 = -9.3% (2024), 3,200 / 2,652 - 1 = 20.7% (2025), Q2 2026 941 / 745 - 1 = 26.3%. Biosciences 4,169 / 4,238 - 1 = -1.6%. Transplant 492 / 393 - 1 = 25.2%, Q2 134 / 124 - 1 = 8.1%. ImmunoDiagnostics 912 / 802 - 1 = 13.7%, Q2 248 / 234 - 1 = 6.0%. Clinical diagnostics 1,115 / 1,104 - 1 = 1.0%. Microbiology 645 / 618 - 1 = 4.4% (about 2.2% a year); sale price 1,075 / 645 = 1.7 times; microbiology / Specialty Diagnostics 645 / 4,676 = 13.8%. Research and safety channel 7,440 / 6,841 - 1 = 8.8%, Q2 2,036 / 1,883 - 1 = 8.1%, 7,440 - 6,841 = 599. Healthcare channel 1,788 / 1,712 - 1 = 4.4%, 1,788 / 1,764 - 1 = 1.4% (2025), Q2 442 / 407 - 1 = 8.6%. Laboratory products 2,407 / 2,613 - 1 = -7.9%. Channels (7,440 + 1,788) / 44,556 = 9,228 / 44,556 = 20.7%. Revenue growth: 44,556 / 42,879 - 1 = 3.9% (2025), increase 44,556 - 42,879 = 1,677; 44,556 / 42,857 - 1 = 4.0% (2023-2025); 44,556 / 16,965 = 2.6 times (2015-2025). Research channel share of the increase 422 / 1,677 = 25%. Eliminations / revenue 633 / 16,965 = 3.7% (2015), 2,033 / 44,556 = 4.6% (2025). Life Sciences Solutions sold to other segments 1,593 / 10,374 = 15.4%; external revenue 8,781 / 8,160 - 1 = 7.6%. Pharma services 7,142 / 6,685 - 1 = 6.8%; clinical research 7,915 / 7,836 - 1 = 1.0%; Q2 2026 clinical research 2,396 / 1,955 - 1 = 22.6%. Clinical research + pharma services 7,915 + 7,142 = 15,057, / 44,556 = 33.8% (2025); (7,836 + 6,685) / 42,879 = 33.9% (2024); (7,691 + 6,806) / 42,857 = 33.8% (2023); Q2 2026 2,396 + 1,893 = 4,289, / 11,994 = 35.8%; Q2 2025 1,955 + 1,794 = 3,749. Patheon + PPD + Clario 7,358 + 16,036 + 9,098 = 32,492. Clario price / 2025 revenue 9,098 / 1,500 = 6.1 times; 9,098 / 1,250 = 7.3 times; goodwill 5,934 / 9,098 = 65%. Filtration 3,870 / 750 = 5.2 times. LPBS capital expenditure 1,005 / 1,525 = 65.9%. Revenue per employee 32,218 / 80,000 = about $403,000 (2020); 44,556 / 125,000 = about $356,000 (2025); 356 / 403 - 1 = -12%. Remaining performance obligations 24.61 / 28.30 - 1 = -13.0% (2021-2024); 29.70 / 46.336 = 64% of trailing revenue. 2019 backlog 4,577 / 7,768 = 59%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: revenue 44,556 - 21,219 + 22,999 = 46,336; net income 6,704 - 3,124 + 3,387 = 6,967. COVID: Life Sciences Solutions segment income 3,420 / 7,817 - 1 = -56%; testing 0.33 / 7.26 = 4.5% remaining. Tax rate 547 / 7,308 = 7.5% (2025); 657 / 7,037 = 9.3% (2024); 284 / 6,298 = 4.5% (2023). R&D 1,397 / 44,556 = 3.1%. Adjusted less GAAP EPS 22.87 - 17.74 = 5.13. Acquisitions booked since 2021: PPD 16,036 + PeproTech 1,864 + European viral vector 830 + Mesa Biotech 472 + The Binding Site 2,699 + CorEvitas 910 + Olink 3,146 + filtration and separation 3,870 + Clario 9,098 = 38,925. Goodwill and intangibles / total assets (54,832 + 18,606) / 113,174 = 73,438 / 113,174 = 65% (June 2026); (49,362 + 15,838) / 110,343 = 59% (end 2025). Genetic sciences 2,870 / 2,787 - 1 = 3.0%. Analytical Instruments 7,554 / 63,400 = 11.9% of the MarketsandMarkets estimate; revenue 7,463 / 7,263 - 1 = 2.8% (2024), 7,554 / 7,463 - 1 = 1.2% (2025), Q2 1,847 / 1,728 - 1 = 6.9%. Market value against Danaher 249.58 / 157.81 - 1 = 58%. China share of revenue 2,060 / 20,918 = 9.8% (2017), 2,752 / 25,542 = 10.8% (2019), 3,444 / 39,211 = 8.8% (2021), 3,793 / 44,915 = 8.4% (2022). Year-end P/E = market value / net income: 56.61 / 1.975 = 28.7 (2015), 55.74 / 2.022 = 27.6 (2016), 76.14 / 2.225 = 34.2 (2017), 90.09 / 2.938 = 30.7 (2018), 130.27 / 3.696 = 35.2 (2019), 184.61 / 6.375 = 29.0 (2020), 262.92 / 7.725 = 34.0 (2021), 215.98 / 6.950 = 31.1 (2022), 205.08 / 5.995 = 34.2 (2023), 198.99 / 6.335 = 31.4 (2024), 217.70 / 6.704 = 32.5 (2025), trailing 249.58 / 6.967 = 35.8. Segment margins = segment income / segment revenue: Life Sciences Solutions 1,414 / 4,774 = 29.6% (2015), 2,446 / 6,856 = 35.7% (2019), 7,817 / 15,631 = 50.0% (2021), 3,420 / 9,977 = 34.3% (2023), 3,503 / 9,631 = 36.4% (2024); Analytical Instruments 613 / 3,208 = 19.1% (2015), 1,027 / 4,821 = 21.3% (2017), 1,273 / 5,522 = 23.1% (2019), 808 / 5,124 = 15.8% (2020), 1,908 / 7,263 = 26.3% (2023); Specialty Diagnostics 873 / 3,244 = 26.9% (2015), 1,024 / 4,763 = 21.5% (2022); LPBS 922 / 6,372 = 14.5% (2015), 1,271 / 12,245 = 10.4% (2020), 1,844 / 14,862 = 12.4% (2021), 2,872 / 22,511 = 12.8% (2022), 3,358 / 23,041 = 14.6% (2023), 3,090 / 23,157 = 13.3% (2024). Segment shares 2025: Life Sciences Solutions income 3,768 / 10,109 = 37.3%, revenue 10,374 / 46,589 = 22.3%; LPBS external revenue 23,818 / 44,556 = 53.5%. Combined segment margin 10,109 / (44,556 + 2,033) = 10,109 / 46,589 = 21.7%. Segment growth: Life Sciences Solutions 10,374 / 9,631 - 1 = 7.7% (2025), Q2 2026 2,815 / 2,499 - 1 = 12.6%; Specialty Diagnostics 4,676 / 4,512 - 1 = 3.6% (2025), Q2 1,205 / 1,134 - 1 = 6.3%; LPBS 23,984 / 23,157 - 1 = 3.6% (2025), Q2 6,693 / 5,995 - 1 = 11.6%. Ten-year compound growth 2015-2025: Life Sciences Solutions (10,374 / 4,774)^(1/10) - 1 = 8.1%; Specialty Diagnostics (4,676 / 3,244)^(1/10) - 1 = 3.7%; LPBS (23,984 / 6,372)^(1/10) - 1 = 14.2%. Additional: return on equity 6,704 / ((53,407 + 49,584) / 2) = 13.0% (2025). Instruments share 6,292 / 24,358 = 25.8% (2018), 3,305 / 22,999 = 14.4% (H1 2026). Life Sciences Solutions segment income Q2 1,041 / 919 - 1 = 13.3%. Services share 2,297 / 16,965 = 13.5% (2015), 18,592 / 44,556 = 41.7% (2025). Service gross margin (17,614 - 12,589) / 17,614 = 28.5% (2023), (17,845 - 12,654) / 17,845 = 29.1% (2024); product (25,034 - 12,523) / 25,034 = 50.0% (2024). LPBS growth 23,984 - 23,157 = 827 = 457 + 422 - 118 (laboratory products) + 79 (clinical research) - 13 (eliminations). Eliminations 3,010 / 39,211 = 7.7% (2021). Europe 11,826 / 10,741 - 1 = 10.1%; North America 23,033 / 22,764 - 1 = 1.2% (2023-2025). Headcount 125,000 / 122,000 - 1 = 2.5%. Electron microscopy 2,957 / 2,564 - 1 = 15.3%. Net debt end 2025 39,380 - 9,852 - 253 = 29,275. Goodwill added 54,832 - 45,853 = 8,979 (end 2024 to June 2026). Specialty Diagnostics best annual margin 910 / 3,339 = 27.3% (2016). Intersegment shares 2025: 201 / 7,554 = 2.7%, 72 / 4,676 = 1.5%, 167 / 23,984 = 0.7%. COVID response less testing 2021: 9.23 - 7.26 = 1.97 billion. Buyback gain 675.00 / 482.66 - 1 = 40%. Olink goodwill 2,301 / 3,146 = 73%. Life Sciences acquisitions 1,342 + 1,864 + 3,146 + 3,870 = 10,222; segment revenue 10,374 - 4,774 = 5,600. Instrumentation market (92.53 / 63.4)^(1/6) - 1 = 6.5%. Healthcare channel 1,788 / 4,676 = 38%. LPBS segment income Q2 936 / 825 - 1 = 13.5%. Interest cover 7,746 / 1,419 = 5.5 times. EPS 17.74 / 4.92 = 3.6 times. One-point price cut 7,440 x 1% = 74, / 3,350 = 2.2%. Laboratory products 2,407 - 2,525 = -118. Clinical diagnostics Q2 290 / 276 - 1 = 5.1%. Revenue 44,556 - 32,218 = 12,338 (2020-2025). Healthcare channel 1,764 / 1,712 - 1 = 3.0% (2024). Tax at 11.5% instead of 7.5%: 7,308 x 4% = 292. Microbiology Q2 166 / 159 - 1 = 4.4%. Pharma services 6,685 / 6,806 - 1 = -1.8% (2024). Clinical diagnostics 1,115 / 4,676 = 23.8%. Revenue per employee 20,918 / 70,000 = about $299,000 (2017); 25,542 / 75,000 = about $341,000 (2019). Research and safety channel 7,019 / 6,841 - 1 = 2.6% (2024), 7,440 / 7,019 - 1 = 6.0% (2025). Backlog 7,768 / 5,087 - 1 = 52.7% (2019). Restructuring 362 / 7,746 = 4.7%. Laboratory products Q2 608 / 601 - 1 = 1.2%. Services 18,592 / 17,614 - 1 = 5.6%, cost of services 12,913 / 12,589 - 1 = 2.6% (2023-2025). Life Sciences Solutions internal share (9,977 - 8,545) / 9,977 = 14.4% (2023). Biosciences 4,169 / 10,374 = 40.2%. COVID share 6.63 / 32.218 = 20.6% (2020), 9.23 / 39.211 = 23.5% (2021). R&D 1,397 / 1,337 - 1 = 4.5%. Segment income / total assets 10,109 / 110,343 = 9.2%. ImmunoDiagnostics 912 - 802 = 110; clinical diagnostics 1,115 - 1,104 = 11. Restructuring 459 / 6,859 = 6.7% (2023). Microbiology 645 / 44,556 = 1.4%. Laboratory products 2,613 / 23,041 = 11.3% (2023), 2,407 / 23,984 = 10.0% (2025). Clario 0.45 x 371.5 = about 167, / 9,098 = 1.8%. LPBS capex / segment income 1,005 / 3,350 = 30%; Life Sciences Solutions 152 / 3,768 = 4.0%. Equity / assets 52,686 / 113,174 = 46.6%. Clinical research 7,915 / 44,556 = 17.8%. Eliminations Q2 565 / 501 - 1 = 12.8%. Instruments 7,301 / 6,292 - 1 = 16.0%. Revenue per employee 18,274 / 55,000 = about $332,000 (2016). Healthcare channel 1,788 / 44,556 = 4.0%. China 2,797 / 32,218 = 8.7% (2020). RPO 29.70 - 27.92 = 1.78 billion - acquisitions, capital and valuation. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Thermo Fisher's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, results releases, earnings calls, MarketsandMarkets and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  6. ReportedAdjusted earnings per share were $23.24 in 2022 and $22.87 in 2025, lower despite three years of buybacks and acquisitions.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - core organic growth, adjusted EPS and free cash flow for 2022-2023. — FY2023 · publ. 31 January 2024 · source ↗
  7. ReportedAdjusted earnings per share were $23.24 in 2022 and $22.87 in 2025, lower despite three years of buybacks and acquisitions.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - adjusted EPS, free cash flow, capital deployment, the Accelerator offering and the OpenAI collaboration. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedOperating income was $8,393 million in 2022 and $7,746 million in 2025; net income attributable to the company was $6,950 million in 2022 and $6,704 million in 2025.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific Form 10-K for fiscal 2023 - segment revenue and income for 2021-2023, COVID-19 testing revenue, remaining performance obligations, the geographic table without a China line, and the Binding Site and CorEvitas acquisitions. — FY2023 · publ. February 2024 · source ↗
  9. ReportedOperating income was $8,393 million in 2022 and $7,746 million in 2025; net income attributable to the company was $6,950 million in 2022 and $6,704 million in 2025.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements: income, cash flow, repurchases, debt and equity. — FY2025 · publ. 26 February 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedOperating income was $8,393 million in 2022 and $7,746 million in 2025; net income attributable to the company was $6,950 million in 2022 and $6,704 million in 2025.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific Form 10-K for fiscal 2022 - segment revenue and income for 2020-2022, revenue by type and by geography including China, and COVID-19 testing revenue. — FY2022 · publ. February 2023 · source ↗
  11. ReportedOperating income was $8,393 million in 2022 and $7,746 million in 2025; net income attributable to the company was $6,950 million in 2022 and $6,704 million in 2025.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements: income, cash flow, repurchases, debt and equity. — FY2025 · publ. 26 February 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedCore organic growth in 2023, the trough year, was 1%.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - core organic growth, adjusted EPS and free cash flow for 2022-2023. — FY2023 · publ. 31 January 2024 · source ↗
  13. ReportedAdjusted earnings barely moved in between: $21.55 a share in 2023 and $21.86 in 2024.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - core organic growth, adjusted EPS and free cash flow for 2022-2023. — FY2023 · publ. 31 January 2024 · source ↗
  14. ReportedAdjusted earnings barely moved in between: $21.55 a share in 2023 and $21.86 in 2024.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - adjusted EPS, free cash flow, capital deployment, the Accelerator offering and the OpenAI collaboration. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  15. Reported2026 should break the pattern: revenue is guided to $47.4 billion to $48.1 billion.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool) - organic growth by segment and market, China, the raised 2026 guidance, leverage, adjusted ROIC and the microbiology sale. Figures from the transcript body, not the summary block - 2026 guidance, capital deployment, leverage and adjusted ROIC. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026