✦ The Future BetsNarrow moat

Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) — the future bets

Thermo Fisher's bets for the next few years are mostly things it has bought, attached to a channel it already owns.

Thermo Fisher's plan for 2026 is more of the same, faster. In July it raised revenue guidance to $47.4 billion to $48.1 billion, 6% to 8% reported growth, and adjusted earnings per share to $24.93 to $25.331. Organic growth is expected to be about 4%, with acquisitions adding $1.6 billion of revenue2.

Revenue ($bn)42.9202444.6202547.42026 guide low48.12026 guide highThermo Fisher Form 10-K FY2025 and Q2 2026 earnings call
The first real growth since 2022.

Four bets sit behind that. Proteomics, bought through Olink in 2024 and two software companies in 2026. Filtration and separation, bought from Solventum in 2025. Artificial intelligence, through a collaboration with OpenAI announced in the fourth quarter of 2025. And a new operating team, with a president and chief financial officer appointed in March 2026.

Three of the four were bought. That is consistent with how the company grows, and with the risk that it pays full prices for the future.

None changes the moat on its own. Each adds a consumable franchise, a service or a tool to a customer base Thermo Fisher already reaches through its channel.

The raised guidance has several moving parts. Management expects adjusted operating margin to expand by about 80 basis points, currency to add about $200 million of revenue, net interest of approximately $660 million and an adjusted tax rate of 11.5%3. In January the plan had been revenue of $46.3 billion to $47.2 billion4; the July range starts above the old top, mostly because of Clario and a stronger second quarter.

The cash plan funds the bets with room to spare. Free cash flow is guided at $6.9 billion to $7.4 billion for 2026, after net capital expenditure of $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion, with about $4 billion of buybacks and approximately $700 million of dividends5. Diluted shares are expected at 370 million to 373 million6, against 378 million in 20257.

The bets are narrow and widening. The test is the 2026 guidance: revenue of at least $47.4 billion, with organic growth near 4%, would show the bought businesses adding to a base that is growing again.

Moat trajectory: Widening

2026 revenue guidance raised to $47.4-48.1bn; organic about 4%.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
2026 revenue guidance
$47.4bn to $48.1bn (raised July 2026)

The plan the bets must deliver; a cut in October would mean the base or the purchases are falling short.

Source: Thermo Fisher Q2 2026 earnings call ↗
✦ Future bets — beyond today's moat
✦ FUTURE BET 01
Proteomics: Olink and Two Software Companies
Thermo Fisher has bought Olink and two software companies to be inside protein measurement if it becomes routine, and the growth so far is the…
✦ FUTURE BET 02
Filtration and Separation: The Solventum Business
Thermo Fisher paid about five times revenue for Solventum's filtration business, a consumable that locks into its customers' drug manufacturing.
✦ FUTURE BET 03
AI: The OpenAI Collaboration
Thermo Fisher has a collaboration with OpenAI and a research budget of about 3% of revenue, which is a start rather than a strategy.
✦ FUTURE BET 04
A New President and a New CFO
Thermo Fisher has named an internal president and finance chief, the start of a succession for a company whose edge is operating discipline.
References
  1. ReportedIn July it raised revenue guidance to $47.4 billion to $48.1 billion, 6% to 8% reported growth, and adjusted earnings per share to $24.93 to $25.33.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool) - organic growth by segment and market, China, the raised 2026 guidance, leverage, adjusted ROIC and the microbiology sale. Figures from the transcript body, not the summary block - 2026 guidance, capital deployment, leverage and adjusted ROIC. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedOrganic growth is expected to be about 4%, with acquisitions adding $1.6 billion of revenue.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool) - organic growth by segment and market, China, the raised 2026 guidance, leverage, adjusted ROIC and the microbiology sale. Figures from the transcript body, not the summary block - organic growth by segment, end market and region, and the microbiology sale. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedManagement expects adjusted operating margin to expand by about 80 basis points, currency to add about $200 million of revenue, net interest of approximately $660 million and an adjusted tax rate of 11.5%.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool) - organic growth by segment and market, China, the raised 2026 guidance, leverage, adjusted ROIC and the microbiology sale. Figures from the transcript body, not the summary block - organic growth by segment, end market and region, and the microbiology sale. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIn January the plan had been revenue of $46.3 billion to $47.2 billion; the July range starts above the old top, mostly because of Clario and a stronger second quarter.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool) - initial 2026 guidance, tariffs, academic and government demand, Clario's 2025 revenue and the new CFO. — Q4 2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedFree cash flow is guided at $6.9 billion to $7.4 billion for 2026, after net capital expenditure of $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion, with about $4 billion of buybacks and approximately $700 million of dividends.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool) - organic growth by segment and market, China, the raised 2026 guidance, leverage, adjusted ROIC and the microbiology sale. Figures from the transcript body, not the summary block - 2026 guidance, capital deployment, leverage and adjusted ROIC. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedDiluted shares are expected at 370 million to 373 million, against 378 million in 2025.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool) - organic growth by segment and market, China, the raised 2026 guidance, leverage, adjusted ROIC and the microbiology sale. Figures from the transcript body, not the summary block - organic growth by segment, end market and region, and the microbiology sale. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedDiluted shares are expected at 370 million to 373 million, against 378 million in 2025.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements: income, cash flow, repurchases, debt and equity. — FY2025 · publ. 26 February 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026