⚠ Organic Growth: 2% in 2025, 4% PromisedHigh threat

Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) — threat to the moat

Thermo Fisher grew 2% organically in 2025 and is buying most of its growth, while its shares are priced for a company that grows on its own.

Thermo Fisher's own businesses are growing slowly. Organic revenue growth was 2% in 20251, and quarterly organic growth was 2% in the second quarter of 20252 and 3% in the fourth3. Revenue was $44,915 million in 2022 and $44,556 million in 202545.

Organic revenue growth by quarter (%)2%Q2 253%Q3 253%Q4 251%Q1 265%Q2 26Thermo Fisher results releases Q2 2025-Q2 2026
One good quarter after four slow ones.

The pickup in 2026 is partly real. Organic growth was 1% in the first quarter6 and 5% in the second7. But reported growth of 10% in the second quarter came from 5% organic, 5% acquisitions and 1% currency8.

The guidance depends on the same mix. Management expects organic growth of about 4% and $1.6 billion of revenue from acquisitions in 20269.

The problem with slow organic growth is the price the company then pays for growth elsewhere. At 36.32 times trailing earnings10 the shares assume a growing business, and a company growing 2% on its own has to keep buying to justify it.

The 2025 figures show how little of the growth was organic. Reported revenue grew 4%, of which acquisitions contributed 1%, currency 1% and organic growth 2%11. The 10-K adds that revenues to customers in the diagnostics and healthcare market "were flat"12. For 2026 the company says organic growth will be about 4%, "at the upper end" of the 3% to 4% range it gave in January13.

The first quarter of 2026 was the weakest. Revenue grew 6% to $11.01 billion, but organic growth was 1%14, so the year's organic pace depends on the second half repeating the second quarter. Adjusted earnings per share were $5.44 in the first quarter15 and $6.03 in the second16.

The danger fades if organic growth holds at 4% or better for the rest of 2026. Organic growth back at 2% in the third quarter would mean the second quarter was a rebound, not a recovery.

The number that tests this threat
Reported
Organic revenue growth, latest quarter
5% (Q2 2026), with acquisitions adding another 5%

The underlying growth rate; a return to 2% would mean the recovery was a rebound.

Source: Thermo Fisher Q2 2026 results release ↗
References
  1. ReportedOrganic revenue growth was 2% in 2025, and quarterly organic growth was 2% in the second quarter of 2025 and 3% in the fourth.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements: income, cash flow, repurchases, debt and equity. — FY2025 · publ. 26 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedOrganic revenue growth was 2% in 2025, and quarterly organic growth was 2% in the second quarter of 2025 and 3% in the fourth.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific second-quarter 2025 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q2 2025 · publ. 23 July 2025 · source ↗
  3. ReportedOrganic revenue growth was 2% in 2025, and quarterly organic growth was 2% in the second quarter of 2025 and 3% in the fourth.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - adjusted EPS, free cash flow, capital deployment, the Accelerator offering and the OpenAI collaboration. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedRevenue was $44,915 million in 2022 and $44,556 million in 2025.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific Form 10-K for fiscal 2023 - segment revenue and income for 2021-2023, COVID-19 testing revenue, remaining performance obligations, the geographic table without a China line, and the Binding Site and CorEvitas acquisitions. — FY2023 · publ. February 2024 · source ↗
  5. ReportedRevenue was $44,915 million in 2022 and $44,556 million in 2025.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements: income, cash flow, repurchases, debt and equity. — FY2025 · publ. 26 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedOrganic growth was 1% in the first quarter and 5% in the second.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific first-quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q1 2026 · publ. 23 April 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedOrganic growth was 1% in the first quarter and 5% in the second.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific second-quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue, organic growth, segment income and margins, free cash flow and the balance sheet. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedBut reported growth of 10% in the second quarter came from 5% organic, 5% acquisitions and 1% currency.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific second-quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue, organic growth, segment income and margins, free cash flow and the balance sheet. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedManagement expects organic growth of about 4% and $1.6 billion of revenue from acquisitions in 2026.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool) - organic growth by segment and market, China, the raised 2026 guidance, leverage, adjusted ROIC and the microbiology sale. Figures from the transcript body, not the summary block - 2026 guidance, capital deployment, leverage and adjusted ROIC. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedAt 36.32 times trailing earnings the shares assume a growing business, and a company growing 2% on its own has to keep buying to justify it.
    Thermo Fisher (TMO) statistics - trailing P/E 36.32, forward P/E 25.69, P/S 5.39, 369.75 million shares, institutions 92.99%, 52-week change +44.23%. — September 2026 · publ. 25 September 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedReported revenue grew 4%, of which acquisitions contributed 1%, currency 1% and organic growth 2%.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - acquisitions notes: purchase prices, goodwill and intangible assets. — FY2025 · publ. 26 February 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedThe 10-K adds that revenues to customers in the diagnostics and healthcare market "were flat".
    Thermo Fisher Scientific Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - revenue by business. — FY2025 · publ. 26 February 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedFor 2026 the company says organic growth will be about 4%, "at the upper end" of the 3% to 4% range it gave in January.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool) - organic growth by segment and market, China, the raised 2026 guidance, leverage, adjusted ROIC and the microbiology sale. Figures from the transcript body, not the summary block - 2026 guidance, capital deployment, leverage and adjusted ROIC. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  14. ReportedRevenue grew 6% to $11.01 billion, but organic growth was 1%, so the year's organic pace depends on the second half repeating the second quarter.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific first-quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q1 2026 · publ. 23 April 2026 · source ↗
  15. ReportedAdjusted earnings per share were $5.44 in the first quarter and $6.03 in the second.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific first-quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q1 2026 · publ. 23 April 2026 · source ↗
  16. ReportedAdjusted earnings per share were $5.44 in the first quarter and $6.03 in the second.
    Thermo Fisher Scientific second-quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue, organic growth, segment income and margins, free cash flow and the balance sheet. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026