⚠ Services Fell 4% in a Record YearModerate threat

Dell Technologies (DELL) — threat to the moat

Dell's services revenue fell 4% in the year its revenue rose 19%, which is the wrong direction for the business's best margin.

In the best revenue year in Dell's history, its best-margin business went backwards. Services revenue fell from $24,147 million in fiscal 2025 to $23,133 million in fiscal 20261, a decline of about 4%2, while total revenue rose about 19%3. In the second quarter of fiscal 2027 services were $5,859 million, flat against $5,841 million a year earlier4, while products grew 72%5.

Services revenue by fiscal year ($M)24,072FY202424,147FY202523,133FY2026Dell Technologies Form 10-K FY2026
Flat, then down.

Dell does not break the decline down. One plausible reading is that AI buyers purchase less Dell support per dollar of hardware than the traditional customer base did; another is that support contracts are being priced more keenly to win hardware.

Whatever the cause, it weakens the argument that Dell's installed base produces growing annuity income. An annuity that shrinks while sales boom is not compounding.

Measured over five years the picture is worse. Services revenue was $24,313 million in fiscal 2021 on the basis then reported, which included VMware6, against $23,133 million in fiscal 20267. Some of the decline is VMware leaving; the rest is a support business that has not grown with the hardware.

Services growth will show it. Two more quarters of flat services revenue against product growth above 50% would mean the new AI customers are not buying the contracts that made the old base valuable.

References
  1. ReportedServices revenue fell from $24,147 million in fiscal 2025 to $23,133 million in fiscal 2026, a decline of about 4%, while total revenue rose about 19%.
    Dell Technologies Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 30 January 2026) - Item 7 MD&A and segment note: ISG and CSG revenue, operating income and drivers. — FY2026 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcServices revenue fell from $24,147 million in fiscal 2025 to $23,133 million in fiscal 2026, a decline of about 4%, while total revenue rose about 19%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Dell Technologies' reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years labelled by the year they end). Margins FY2026: gross margin 22,707 / 113,538 = 20.0% (FY2024 21,069 / 88,425 = 23.8%; FY2025 21,250 / 95,567 = 22.2%); operating margin 8,149 / 113,538 = 7.2%. Products gross margin 90,405 - 78,057 = 12,348, 12,348 / 90,405 = 13.7%; services gross margin 23,133 - 12,774 = 10,359, 10,359 / 23,133 = 44.8%; services share of revenue 23,133 / 113,538 = 20.4%; services share of gross margin 10,359 / 22,707 = 45.6%. Growth FY2026: revenue 113,538 / 95,567 - 1 = 18.8%; services 23,133 / 24,147 - 1 = -4.2%; ISG revenue 60,826 / 43,593 - 1 = 39.5%; ISG operating income 7,111 / 5,579 - 1 = 27.5%; United States 63,140 / 51,014 - 1 = 23.8%; foreign 50,398 / 44,553 - 1 = 13.1%. Revenue FY2024 to FY2026 113,538 / 88,425 - 1 = 28.4%; employees 97,000 / 120,000 - 1 = -19.2%; revenue per employee 88,425 / 120,000 = 0.74 and 113,538 / 97,000 = 1.17. AI servers: 24,683 / 1,873 = 13.2 times; share of revenue 24,683 / 113,538 = 21.7% (FY2024 1,873 / 88,425 = 2.1%); share of ISG 24,683 / 60,826 = 40.6%; Q2 FY2027 share of ISG 16,401 / 31,782 = 51.6%; first half 16,132 + 16,401 = 32,533, 32,533 / 74,000 = 44.0%; second half needed 74,000 - 32,533 = 41,467, about 20,700 a quarter; FY2027 guidance share 74.0 / 192.0 = 38.5%; FY2027 guidance 74.0 / 24.683 = 3.0 times. Orders: Q4 FY2026 AI orders about 64 - 30 = 34 billion; Q2 FY2027 orders to revenue 60.9 / 16.4 = 3.7. ISG share of segment operating income: FY2024 4,286 / 7,998 = 53.6%; FY2026 7,111 / 9,944 = 71.5%. Q2 FY2027 CSG share 1,142 / (4,781 + 1,142) = 19.3%. ISG operating margin: FY2022 3,736 / 34,366 = 10.9%; FY2023 5,045 / 38,356 = 13.2%. CSG operating margin: FY2024 3,712 / 48,916 = 7.6%; Q1 FY2026 653 / 12,509 = 5.2%; Q2 FY2026 803 / 12,503 = 6.4%; Q4 FY2026 629 / 13,494 = 4.7%; Q1 FY2027 1,170 / 14,609 = 8.0%; Q2 FY2027 1,142 / 15,034 = 7.6%. CSG operating income FY2022 to FY2026 2,833 / 4,365 - 1 = -35.1%. Q2 FY2027 client: CSG revenue 15,034 / 12,503 - 1 = 20.2%; CSG operating income 1,142 / 803 - 1 = 42.2%. Traditional servers and networking first half FY2027 8,543 + 10,531 = 19,074. Servers and networking growth FY2025 27,136 / 17,624 - 1 = 54.0%, FY2026 44,195 / 27,136 - 1 = 62.9%; share of revenue 44,195 / 113,538 = 38.9%; Q2 FY2027 16,401 + 10,531 = 26,932, 26,932 / 46,971 = 57.3%. Line changes FY2022 to FY2026: servers and networking 44,195 / 17,901 - 1 = 146.9%; storage 16,631 / 16,465 - 1 = 1.0%; commercial 44,062 / 45,576 - 1 = -3.3%; consumer 6,922 / 15,888 - 1 = -56.4%. Storage 16,631 / 17,958 - 1 = -7.4%; storage share of revenue 16,631 / 113,538 = 14.6%; storage share of ISG 16,631 / 60,826 = 27.3%. Consumer share of revenue 15,888 / 101,197 = 15.7% (FY2022) and 6,922 / 113,538 = 6.1% (FY2026); consumer against FY2015 6,922 / 10,880 - 1 = -36.4%. Commercial share of revenue 44,062 / 113,538 = 38.8%. Servers and networking plus commercial 44,195 + 44,062 = 88,257, 88,257 / 113,538 = 77.7%. Corporate and other FY2022 101,197 - 17,901 - 16,465 - 45,576 - 15,888 = 5,367; corporate and other change 1,728 / 5,624 - 1 = -69.3%. Geography: United States share 43,986 / 88,425 = 49.7% (FY2024), 51,014 / 95,567 = 53.4% (FY2025), 63,140 / 113,538 = 55.6% (FY2026). Largest customer: 12% x 113,538 = 13,625; 13,625 / 60,826 = 22.4% of ISG; all other customers 113,538 - 13,625 = 99,913. Remaining performance obligations due within twelve months: 132 x 77% = 101.6 billion. Server share: Dell lead over Supermicro 16.5 - 7.6 = 8.9 points in Q1 2026 against 10 - 9.5 = 0.5 points in 2025; Supermicro plus HPE 7.6 + 3.0 = 10.6%. Inventories 21,290 / 10,437 = 2.04 times; payables 49,723 - 33,630 = 16,093; inventory increase 21,290 - 10,437 = 10,853; payables less inventories 49,723 - 21,290 = 28,433; payables less inventories and receivables 49,723 - 21,290 - 22,918 = 5,515. DFS-related debt 20,660 / 14,646 - 1 = 41.1%. Debt: FY2020 7,737 + 44,319 = 52,056; net core debt 13,983 - 11,569 = 2,414; net debt 31,503 - 11,528 = 19,975 (January 2026) and 34,466 - 11,569 = 22,897 (July 2026); interest paid 1,354 / 8,149 = 16.6%. Goodwill and intangibles 19,547 + 4,533 = 24,080, 24,080 / 101,286 = 23.8%; other assets 101,286 - 24,080 = 77,206. Capital returns: buybacks first half FY2027 5.4 billion / 20 million shares = about $270 a share; dividends paid 1,459 / 5,936 = 24.6% of net income; annual dividend 0.37 x 4 = 1.48, 0.445 x 4 = 1.78, 0.525 x 4 = 2.10, 0.63 x 4 = 2.52, 2.52 / 1.48 - 1 = 70%; Q2 FY2027 buybacks and dividends 3,796 + 405 = 4,201. Guidance: FY2027 revenue 192.0 / 113.538 - 1 = 69%; non-AI revenue 192.0 - 74.0 = 118.0 against 113,538 - 24,683 = 88,855, 118.0 / 88.855 - 1 = 32.8%; implied second half 192.0 - 90.8 = 101.2 billion; implied fourth quarter 101.2 - 49.0 = 52.2 billion; implied second-half GAAP EPS 24.37 - 11.58 = 12.79; guidance raised 192 - 140 = 52 billion. Voting at 1 September 2026: Class A 276,744,341 / 635,812,750 = 43.5% of shares; votes 276.7 million x 10 = 2,767 million, Class B 43.6 million x 10 = 436 million, Class C 315.4 million; total 3,519 million; Class A 2,767 / 3,519 = 78.6%, Class B 436 / 3,519 = 12.4%, Class C 315 / 3,519 = 9.0%. Valuation: trailing revenue 113,538 - 53,154 + 90,813 = 151,197; trailing net income 5,936 - 2,129 + 7,571 = 11,378; P/E 357.89 / 11.378 = 31.5; P/S 357.89 / 151.2 = 2.37; year-end market value over the next fiscal year: 37.89 / 4.616 = 8.2, 54.95 / 3.250 = 16.9, 42.90 / 5.563 = 7.7, 28.80 / 2.442 = 11.8, 54.43 / 3.388 = 16.1, 82.18 / 4.592 = 17.9, 86.61 / 5.936 = 14.6. Q2 FY2027 cash from operations 2,225 / 4,133 = 54%. Further: ISG operating income 7,111 / 4,286 - 1 = 65.9%; Q2 FY2026 AI orders about 30 - 12.1 - 12.3 = 5.6 billion; operating income 8,149 / 2,622 = 3.1 times (FY2020 to FY2026); NVIDIA Data Center revenue against Dell ISG revenue 89.0 / 31.782 = 2.8 times; buybacks 2,080 + 2,588 + 6,014 = 10,682; ISG revenue 60,826 / 14,714 = 4.1 times (FY2015 to FY2026); IEIT, Lenovo and HPE 2025 server shares 4.1 + 4.0 + 3.1 = 11.2%; Commercial share of client revenue 45,576 / 61,464 = 74.2% (FY2022), 39,814 / 48,916 = 81.4% (FY2024); consumer share of revenue 9,102 / 88,425 = 10.3% (FY2024); Dell server growth against the market 244.1 / 80.4 = 3.0 times. Services share of Q2 FY2027 revenue 5,859 / 46,971 = 12.5%; commercial share of client revenue 44,062 / 50,984 = 86.4%; client revenue growth FY2026 50,984 / 48,393 - 1 = 5.4%; consumer Q1 FY2027 1,589 / 1,463 - 1 = 8.6%; CSG first half FY2027 2,312 / 29,643 = 7.8%; annual dividend cost 0.63 x 4 x 635.8 million = about 1,602; remaining performance obligations 132 / 38 = 3.5 times; EPS guidance 24.37 / 11.52 = 2.1 times; AI backlog against second-half AI revenue needed 95 / 41.5 = 2.3 times; commercial first half FY2027 13,020 + 13,192 = 26,212, 26,212 / 44,062 = 59.5%; storage share of ISG 16,261 / 33,885 = 48.0% (FY2024) and 4,850 / 31,782 = 15.3% (Q2 FY2027); consumer share of Q2 FY2027 revenue 1,842 / 46,971 = 3.9%; AI orders less AI revenue in Q2 FY2027 60.9 - 16.4 = 44.5 billion; consumer share of client revenue 10,880 / 39,634 = 27.5% (FY2015) and 6,922 / 50,984 = 13.6% (FY2026) - revenue mix, concentration, geography and market share. — FY2015-FY2027 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Dell Technologies' Forms 10-K and 10-Q, results releases, IDC data and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  3. Moat Explorer calcServices revenue fell from $24,147 million in fiscal 2025 to $23,133 million in fiscal 2026, a decline of about 4%, while total revenue rose about 19%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Dell Technologies' reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years labelled by the year they end). Margins FY2026: gross margin 22,707 / 113,538 = 20.0% (FY2024 21,069 / 88,425 = 23.8%; FY2025 21,250 / 95,567 = 22.2%); operating margin 8,149 / 113,538 = 7.2%. Products gross margin 90,405 - 78,057 = 12,348, 12,348 / 90,405 = 13.7%; services gross margin 23,133 - 12,774 = 10,359, 10,359 / 23,133 = 44.8%; services share of revenue 23,133 / 113,538 = 20.4%; services share of gross margin 10,359 / 22,707 = 45.6%. Growth FY2026: revenue 113,538 / 95,567 - 1 = 18.8%; services 23,133 / 24,147 - 1 = -4.2%; ISG revenue 60,826 / 43,593 - 1 = 39.5%; ISG operating income 7,111 / 5,579 - 1 = 27.5%; United States 63,140 / 51,014 - 1 = 23.8%; foreign 50,398 / 44,553 - 1 = 13.1%. Revenue FY2024 to FY2026 113,538 / 88,425 - 1 = 28.4%; employees 97,000 / 120,000 - 1 = -19.2%; revenue per employee 88,425 / 120,000 = 0.74 and 113,538 / 97,000 = 1.17. AI servers: 24,683 / 1,873 = 13.2 times; share of revenue 24,683 / 113,538 = 21.7% (FY2024 1,873 / 88,425 = 2.1%); share of ISG 24,683 / 60,826 = 40.6%; Q2 FY2027 share of ISG 16,401 / 31,782 = 51.6%; first half 16,132 + 16,401 = 32,533, 32,533 / 74,000 = 44.0%; second half needed 74,000 - 32,533 = 41,467, about 20,700 a quarter; FY2027 guidance share 74.0 / 192.0 = 38.5%; FY2027 guidance 74.0 / 24.683 = 3.0 times. Orders: Q4 FY2026 AI orders about 64 - 30 = 34 billion; Q2 FY2027 orders to revenue 60.9 / 16.4 = 3.7. ISG share of segment operating income: FY2024 4,286 / 7,998 = 53.6%; FY2026 7,111 / 9,944 = 71.5%. Q2 FY2027 CSG share 1,142 / (4,781 + 1,142) = 19.3%. ISG operating margin: FY2022 3,736 / 34,366 = 10.9%; FY2023 5,045 / 38,356 = 13.2%. CSG operating margin: FY2024 3,712 / 48,916 = 7.6%; Q1 FY2026 653 / 12,509 = 5.2%; Q2 FY2026 803 / 12,503 = 6.4%; Q4 FY2026 629 / 13,494 = 4.7%; Q1 FY2027 1,170 / 14,609 = 8.0%; Q2 FY2027 1,142 / 15,034 = 7.6%. CSG operating income FY2022 to FY2026 2,833 / 4,365 - 1 = -35.1%. Q2 FY2027 client: CSG revenue 15,034 / 12,503 - 1 = 20.2%; CSG operating income 1,142 / 803 - 1 = 42.2%. Traditional servers and networking first half FY2027 8,543 + 10,531 = 19,074. Servers and networking growth FY2025 27,136 / 17,624 - 1 = 54.0%, FY2026 44,195 / 27,136 - 1 = 62.9%; share of revenue 44,195 / 113,538 = 38.9%; Q2 FY2027 16,401 + 10,531 = 26,932, 26,932 / 46,971 = 57.3%. Line changes FY2022 to FY2026: servers and networking 44,195 / 17,901 - 1 = 146.9%; storage 16,631 / 16,465 - 1 = 1.0%; commercial 44,062 / 45,576 - 1 = -3.3%; consumer 6,922 / 15,888 - 1 = -56.4%. Storage 16,631 / 17,958 - 1 = -7.4%; storage share of revenue 16,631 / 113,538 = 14.6%; storage share of ISG 16,631 / 60,826 = 27.3%. Consumer share of revenue 15,888 / 101,197 = 15.7% (FY2022) and 6,922 / 113,538 = 6.1% (FY2026); consumer against FY2015 6,922 / 10,880 - 1 = -36.4%. Commercial share of revenue 44,062 / 113,538 = 38.8%. Servers and networking plus commercial 44,195 + 44,062 = 88,257, 88,257 / 113,538 = 77.7%. Corporate and other FY2022 101,197 - 17,901 - 16,465 - 45,576 - 15,888 = 5,367; corporate and other change 1,728 / 5,624 - 1 = -69.3%. Geography: United States share 43,986 / 88,425 = 49.7% (FY2024), 51,014 / 95,567 = 53.4% (FY2025), 63,140 / 113,538 = 55.6% (FY2026). Largest customer: 12% x 113,538 = 13,625; 13,625 / 60,826 = 22.4% of ISG; all other customers 113,538 - 13,625 = 99,913. Remaining performance obligations due within twelve months: 132 x 77% = 101.6 billion. Server share: Dell lead over Supermicro 16.5 - 7.6 = 8.9 points in Q1 2026 against 10 - 9.5 = 0.5 points in 2025; Supermicro plus HPE 7.6 + 3.0 = 10.6%. Inventories 21,290 / 10,437 = 2.04 times; payables 49,723 - 33,630 = 16,093; inventory increase 21,290 - 10,437 = 10,853; payables less inventories 49,723 - 21,290 = 28,433; payables less inventories and receivables 49,723 - 21,290 - 22,918 = 5,515. DFS-related debt 20,660 / 14,646 - 1 = 41.1%. Debt: FY2020 7,737 + 44,319 = 52,056; net core debt 13,983 - 11,569 = 2,414; net debt 31,503 - 11,528 = 19,975 (January 2026) and 34,466 - 11,569 = 22,897 (July 2026); interest paid 1,354 / 8,149 = 16.6%. Goodwill and intangibles 19,547 + 4,533 = 24,080, 24,080 / 101,286 = 23.8%; other assets 101,286 - 24,080 = 77,206. Capital returns: buybacks first half FY2027 5.4 billion / 20 million shares = about $270 a share; dividends paid 1,459 / 5,936 = 24.6% of net income; annual dividend 0.37 x 4 = 1.48, 0.445 x 4 = 1.78, 0.525 x 4 = 2.10, 0.63 x 4 = 2.52, 2.52 / 1.48 - 1 = 70%; Q2 FY2027 buybacks and dividends 3,796 + 405 = 4,201. Guidance: FY2027 revenue 192.0 / 113.538 - 1 = 69%; non-AI revenue 192.0 - 74.0 = 118.0 against 113,538 - 24,683 = 88,855, 118.0 / 88.855 - 1 = 32.8%; implied second half 192.0 - 90.8 = 101.2 billion; implied fourth quarter 101.2 - 49.0 = 52.2 billion; implied second-half GAAP EPS 24.37 - 11.58 = 12.79; guidance raised 192 - 140 = 52 billion. Voting at 1 September 2026: Class A 276,744,341 / 635,812,750 = 43.5% of shares; votes 276.7 million x 10 = 2,767 million, Class B 43.6 million x 10 = 436 million, Class C 315.4 million; total 3,519 million; Class A 2,767 / 3,519 = 78.6%, Class B 436 / 3,519 = 12.4%, Class C 315 / 3,519 = 9.0%. Valuation: trailing revenue 113,538 - 53,154 + 90,813 = 151,197; trailing net income 5,936 - 2,129 + 7,571 = 11,378; P/E 357.89 / 11.378 = 31.5; P/S 357.89 / 151.2 = 2.37; year-end market value over the next fiscal year: 37.89 / 4.616 = 8.2, 54.95 / 3.250 = 16.9, 42.90 / 5.563 = 7.7, 28.80 / 2.442 = 11.8, 54.43 / 3.388 = 16.1, 82.18 / 4.592 = 17.9, 86.61 / 5.936 = 14.6. Q2 FY2027 cash from operations 2,225 / 4,133 = 54%. Further: ISG operating income 7,111 / 4,286 - 1 = 65.9%; Q2 FY2026 AI orders about 30 - 12.1 - 12.3 = 5.6 billion; operating income 8,149 / 2,622 = 3.1 times (FY2020 to FY2026); NVIDIA Data Center revenue against Dell ISG revenue 89.0 / 31.782 = 2.8 times; buybacks 2,080 + 2,588 + 6,014 = 10,682; ISG revenue 60,826 / 14,714 = 4.1 times (FY2015 to FY2026); IEIT, Lenovo and HPE 2025 server shares 4.1 + 4.0 + 3.1 = 11.2%; Commercial share of client revenue 45,576 / 61,464 = 74.2% (FY2022), 39,814 / 48,916 = 81.4% (FY2024); consumer share of revenue 9,102 / 88,425 = 10.3% (FY2024); Dell server growth against the market 244.1 / 80.4 = 3.0 times. Services share of Q2 FY2027 revenue 5,859 / 46,971 = 12.5%; commercial share of client revenue 44,062 / 50,984 = 86.4%; client revenue growth FY2026 50,984 / 48,393 - 1 = 5.4%; consumer Q1 FY2027 1,589 / 1,463 - 1 = 8.6%; CSG first half FY2027 2,312 / 29,643 = 7.8%; annual dividend cost 0.63 x 4 x 635.8 million = about 1,602; remaining performance obligations 132 / 38 = 3.5 times; EPS guidance 24.37 / 11.52 = 2.1 times; AI backlog against second-half AI revenue needed 95 / 41.5 = 2.3 times; commercial first half FY2027 13,020 + 13,192 = 26,212, 26,212 / 44,062 = 59.5%; storage share of ISG 16,261 / 33,885 = 48.0% (FY2024) and 4,850 / 31,782 = 15.3% (Q2 FY2027); consumer share of Q2 FY2027 revenue 1,842 / 46,971 = 3.9%; AI orders less AI revenue in Q2 FY2027 60.9 - 16.4 = 44.5 billion; consumer share of client revenue 10,880 / 39,634 = 27.5% (FY2015) and 6,922 / 50,984 = 13.6% (FY2026) - revenue mix, concentration, geography and market share. — FY2015-FY2027 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Dell Technologies' Forms 10-K and 10-Q, results releases, IDC data and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  4. ReportedIn the second quarter of fiscal 2027 services were $5,859 million, flat against $5,841 million a year earlier, while products grew 72%.
    Dell Technologies second-quarter fiscal 2027 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment results, AI orders and backlog, and full-year guidance - consolidated income statement. — Q2 FY2027 · publ. 1 September 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedIn the second quarter of fiscal 2027 services were $5,859 million, flat against $5,841 million a year earlier, while products grew 72%.
    Dell Technologies second-quarter fiscal 2027 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment results, AI orders and backlog, and full-year guidance - consolidated income statement. — Q2 FY2027 · publ. 1 September 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedServices revenue was $24,313 million in fiscal 2021 on the basis then reported, which included VMware, against $23,133 million in fiscal 2026.
    Dell Technologies Form 10-K for fiscal 2021 - net revenue of $94,224 million including VMware. — FY2021 · publ. March 2021 · source ↗
  7. ReportedServices revenue was $24,313 million in fiscal 2021 on the basis then reported, which included VMware, against $23,133 million in fiscal 2026.
    Dell Technologies Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 30 January 2026) - Item 7 MD&A and segment note: ISG and CSG revenue, operating income and drivers. — FY2026 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 26, 2026