✦ ZYN Beyond America: Sixty Markets, Small VolumesThin moat

Philip Morris International (PM) — the future bets

ZYN is sold in 60 countries, but about nine of every ten cans go to the United States.

ZYN is on sale in 60 markets1, but its volume is overwhelmingly American. PMI shipped 879.6 million cans of nicotine pouches in 20252, of which 793.7 million went to the United States3. The rest of the world took about 85.9 million cans, up from 63.5 million in 20244.

Nicotine pouch shipments, 2025 (million cans)United States 793.7 — 90%Rest of world 85.9 — 10%PMI Form 10-K FY2025; recast schedules; rest of world calculated
About nine cans in ten are American.

That is the opportunity. If nicotine pouches can win in other markets what they have won in the United States, where ZYN holds around two-thirds of value in a category that is a high-single-digit percentage of nicotine volume5, PMI has a second growth engine that does not depend on a device.

The early evidence is not encouraging. International oral volume fell 7.0% in the second quarter of 20266, weighed down by the older snus business in Scandinavia, where PMI shipped 227.9 million cans of snus in 2025 against 240.4 million in 20237.

The obstacles are regulatory as much as commercial. Nicotine pouches are unregulated, restricted or banned in different markets, and PMI's American authorisations do not travel.

This is a real option with a long way to run. International pouch shipments are the measure, about 85.9 million cans in 20258; doubling that within two years would make ZYN a global brand, and flat volumes would keep it an American one.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

International pouch volume rising from a low base; international oral -7% in Q2 2026.

The number that tests this moat
Moat Explorer calc
International nicotine pouch shipments
About 85.9M cans (2025), from 63.5M

Whether ZYN travels; doubling in two years would make it global, flat volumes would keep it American.

How it's calculated: Total nicotine pouch shipments less U.S. shipments, from PMI's FY2025 Form 10-K and recast schedules.
Source: Moat Explorer calculation from PMI filings ↗
References
  1. ReportedZYN is on sale in 60 markets, but its volume is overwhelmingly American.
    Philip Morris International second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - volumes, shares, ZYN and 2026 guidance - shipment volumes, market shares, IQOS, ZYN and Japan. — Q2 2026 · publ. 22 July 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedPMI shipped 879.6 million cans of nicotine pouches in 2025, of which 793.7 million went to the United States.
    Philip Morris International Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: markets, products, competitors, market shares, shipments and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedPMI shipped 879.6 million cans of nicotine pouches in 2025, of which 793.7 million went to the United States.
    Philip Morris International Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - 2025 and 2024 results recast into the new segments International Smoke-Free, International Combustibles and U.S. — FY2025 · publ. 13 March 2026 · source ↗
  4. Moat Explorer calcThe rest of the world took about 85.9 million cans, up from 63.5 million in 2024.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Philip Morris International's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Excise and revenue 2025: 53,211 / 40,648 = 1.31 dollars of excise per dollar of net revenue; gross of excise 53,211 + 40,648 = 93,859, excise share 53,211 / 93,859 = 56.7%; excise growth 2023-2025 53,211 / 49,404 - 1 = 7.7% against net revenue growth 40,648 / 35,174 - 1 = 15.6%. Product mix 2025: smoke-free 16,854 / 40,648 = 41.5%; combustible 23,794 / 40,648 = 58.5%; smoke-free 2023 12,840 / 35,174 = 36.5%, 2024 14,660 / 37,878 = 38.7%; smoke-free growth 2023-2025 16,854 / 12,840 - 1 = 31.3%; smoke-free revenue 2016 733 to 2025 16,854 = 23 times. Segments 2025: International Smoke-Free 13,996 / 40,648 = 34.4%; International Combustibles 23,436 / 40,648 = 57.7%; U.S. 3,216 / 40,648 = 7.9%; recast gross profit shares 9,576 / 27,304 = 35.1%, 15,523 / 27,304 = 56.9%, 2,206 / 27,304 = 8.1%. Growth 2025: ISF 13,996 / 12,126 - 1 = 15.4%; IC 23,436 / 22,807 - 1 = 2.8%; U.S. 3,216 / 2,944 - 1 = 9.2%. Growth 2024: ISF 12,126 / 11,102 - 1 = 9.2%; IC 22,807 / 21,903 - 1 = 4.1%; U.S. 2,944 / 2,169 - 1 = 35.7%. IC gross profit 15,523 / 13,972 - 1 = 11.1% against IC revenue 23,436 / 21,903 - 1 = 7.0% (2023-2025). Recast reported gross margins 2023: ISF 7,021 / 11,102 = 63.2%, IC 13,972 / 21,903 = 63.8%; 2024: ISF 7,831 / 12,126 = 64.6%, IC 14,687 / 22,807 = 64.4%. Segment sum 2024 12,126 + 22,807 + 2,944 = 37,877 against 37,878 reported. IC shares of net revenues 21,903 / 35,174 = 62.3% (2023), 22,807 / 37,878 = 60.2% (2024). U.S. revenue 3,216 / 2,169 - 1 = 48.3% (2023-2025). Q2 2026 shares: ISF 3,877 / 11,192 = 34.6%, IC 6,459 / 11,192 = 57.7%, U.S. 856 / 11,192 = 7.6%. U.S. gross margin Q2 2026 555 / 856 = 64.8% against 611 / 862 = 70.9%. Swedish Match: 14,460 + 1,495 + 883 = 16,838 total cash paid; U.S. adjusted operating companies income 1,124 / 16,838 = 6.7% pre-tax; reported U.S. OCI 322 / 3,216 = 10.0% of U.S. revenue; adjusted 1,124 / 3,216 = 35.0%. Goodwill and other intangibles 17,264 + 10,884 = 28,148, 28,148 / 69,185 = 40.7% of total assets. Volumes: cigarettes 607,367 / 616,827 - 1 = -1.5% (2025), 607,367 / 612,949 - 1 = -0.9% (2023-2025); heated tobacco units 155,133 / 139,743 - 1 = 11.0% (2025), 139,743 / 125,263 - 1 = 11.6% (2024); HTUs 155,133 / (607,367 + 155,133) = 20.3% of cigarette plus HTU shipments. U.S. ZYN cans 793.7 / 384.8 = 2.06 times (2023-2025), 793.7 / 580.5 - 1 = 36.7% (2025); international nicotine pouches 879.6 - 793.7 = 85.9 million cans (2025), 644.0 - 580.5 = 63.5 (2024); snus 227.9 / 240.4 - 1 = -5.2% (2023-2025); e-vapor 3,330 / 1,651 = 2.0 times. U.S. segment: cigars 358 / 410 - 1 = -12.7%, 358 / 431 - 1 = -16.9% (2023-2025); wellness 238 / 333 - 1 = -28.5%. Cash and dividends: free cash flow 12,233 - 1,569 = 10,664 (2025), 12,217 - 1,444 = 10,773 (2024), 9,204 - 1,321 = 7,883 (2023); dividends paid / free cash flow 8,624 / 10,664 = 80.9% (2025), 8,197 / 10,773 = 76.1% (2024), 7,964 / 7,883 = 101.0% (2023). Payout of declared dividends per share over diluted EPS: 5.64 / 7.26 = 77.7% (2025), 5.30 / 4.52 = 117.3% (2024), 5.14 / 5.02 = 102.4% (2023); over adjusted EPS 5.64 / 7.54 = 74.8%. Annualised dividend 1.60 x 4 = 6.40; 6.40 / 5.64 = 1.13; dividend 5.64 / 1.54 = 3.7 times since 2008; yield 6.40 / 190.48 = 3.4%. R&D 756 / 40,648 = 1.9% of revenue; capex 1,569 / 40,648 = 3.9%. Customers: two customers 12% + 10% = 22% of 2025 net revenues; related-party revenue 4,582 / 40,648 = 11.3%; Megapolis 2,805 / 40,648 = 6.9%; Megapolis growth 2,805 / 2,393 - 1 = 17.2%. Japan 4.2 / 40.6 = 10.3% of net revenues. Canada: RBH carrying value 3,280 fair value at deconsolidation to 51 at 30 June 2026; impairments 2,316 + 511 = 2,827. Valuation: trailing twelve months to June 2026 revenue 40,648 + 21,338 - 19,441 = 42,545; net earnings 11,348 + 5,255 - 5,729 = 10,874; P/E 296.88 / 10.874 = 27.3; P/S 296.88 / 42.545 = 6.98; 2018 P/E 103.78 / 7.911 = 13.1; 2025 P/E 249.68 / 11.348 = 22.0; free cash flow yield 10,664 / 296,880 = 3.6%. Other PMI cigarette brands: 25.4 - 9.8 = 15.6% (2023), 25.3 - 10.7 = 14.6% (2025), a loss of 1.0 point against Marlboro's gain of 0.9. Excise Q2 2026 14,973 / 13,272 - 1 = 12.8% against net revenues 11,192 / 10,140 - 1 = 10.4%. U.S. smoke-free H1 1,584 - 1,311 = 273 decline. ISF H1 2026 gross margin 5,400 / 7,713 = 70.0%. Gross margin 2025 27,282 / 40,648 = 67.1%. ROIC average 2015-2025 (45.6 + 50.2 + 43.4 + 50.7 + 48.7 + 52.1 + 57.2 + 40.6 + 26.8 + 28.6 + 32.5) / 11 = 43.3%. Employees 84,900 - 82,700 = 2,200 (2023-2025); net revenues 40,648 - 35,174 = 5,474, about 5.5 billion. Snus 240.4 - 227.9 = 12.5 million cans. Europe smoke-free 8,127 / 16,854 = 48.2%, about half. Cigarette decline 2% to 3% of 607,367 = 12,147 to 18,221 million units. Operating cash flow over R&D 12,233 / 756 = 16.2 times. Blocked markets 440 / 2,587 = 17%, about a sixth. Market cap against peers 296.88 / 119.41 = 2.5 times British American Tobacco; 296.88 / 114.91 = 2.6 times Altria. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA 43,963 / 17,375 = 2.53. Interest 966 / 14,892 = 6.5% of operating income. Guidance midpoints: (8.35 + 8.50) / 2 = 8.43, reported (7.28 + 7.43) / 2 = 7.36, gap 8.43 - 7.36 = 1.07; earlier adjusted midpoints (8.38 + 8.53) / 2 = 8.46, (8.31 + 8.46) / 2 = 8.39, (8.26 + 8.41) / 2 = 8.34; 8.43 / 7.54 - 1 = 11.8% - growth rates, volumes, margins and excise. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in PMI's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, the recast segment schedules, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  5. ReportedIf nicotine pouches can win in other markets what they have won in the United States, where ZYN holds around two-thirds of value in a category that is a high-single-digit percentage of nicotine volume, PMI has a second growth engine that does not depend on a device.
    Philip Morris International fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - smoke-free share of revenue and gross profit, 2026 guidance and 2026-2028 targets. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedInternational oral volume fell 7.0% in the second quarter of 2026, weighed down by the older snus business in Scandinavia, where PMI shipped 227.9 million cans of snus in 2025 against 240.4 million in 2023.
    Philip Morris International second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - volumes, shares, ZYN and 2026 guidance - shipment volumes, market shares, IQOS, ZYN and Japan. — Q2 2026 · publ. 22 July 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedInternational oral volume fell 7.0% in the second quarter of 2026, weighed down by the older snus business in Scandinavia, where PMI shipped 227.9 million cans of snus in 2025 against 240.4 million in 2023.
    Philip Morris International Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: markets, products, competitors, market shares, shipments and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  8. Moat Explorer calcInternational pouch shipments are the measure, about 85.9 million cans in 2025; doubling that within two years would make ZYN a global brand, and flat volumes would keep it an American one.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Philip Morris International's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Excise and revenue 2025: 53,211 / 40,648 = 1.31 dollars of excise per dollar of net revenue; gross of excise 53,211 + 40,648 = 93,859, excise share 53,211 / 93,859 = 56.7%; excise growth 2023-2025 53,211 / 49,404 - 1 = 7.7% against net revenue growth 40,648 / 35,174 - 1 = 15.6%. Product mix 2025: smoke-free 16,854 / 40,648 = 41.5%; combustible 23,794 / 40,648 = 58.5%; smoke-free 2023 12,840 / 35,174 = 36.5%, 2024 14,660 / 37,878 = 38.7%; smoke-free growth 2023-2025 16,854 / 12,840 - 1 = 31.3%; smoke-free revenue 2016 733 to 2025 16,854 = 23 times. Segments 2025: International Smoke-Free 13,996 / 40,648 = 34.4%; International Combustibles 23,436 / 40,648 = 57.7%; U.S. 3,216 / 40,648 = 7.9%; recast gross profit shares 9,576 / 27,304 = 35.1%, 15,523 / 27,304 = 56.9%, 2,206 / 27,304 = 8.1%. Growth 2025: ISF 13,996 / 12,126 - 1 = 15.4%; IC 23,436 / 22,807 - 1 = 2.8%; U.S. 3,216 / 2,944 - 1 = 9.2%. Growth 2024: ISF 12,126 / 11,102 - 1 = 9.2%; IC 22,807 / 21,903 - 1 = 4.1%; U.S. 2,944 / 2,169 - 1 = 35.7%. IC gross profit 15,523 / 13,972 - 1 = 11.1% against IC revenue 23,436 / 21,903 - 1 = 7.0% (2023-2025). Recast reported gross margins 2023: ISF 7,021 / 11,102 = 63.2%, IC 13,972 / 21,903 = 63.8%; 2024: ISF 7,831 / 12,126 = 64.6%, IC 14,687 / 22,807 = 64.4%. Segment sum 2024 12,126 + 22,807 + 2,944 = 37,877 against 37,878 reported. IC shares of net revenues 21,903 / 35,174 = 62.3% (2023), 22,807 / 37,878 = 60.2% (2024). U.S. revenue 3,216 / 2,169 - 1 = 48.3% (2023-2025). Q2 2026 shares: ISF 3,877 / 11,192 = 34.6%, IC 6,459 / 11,192 = 57.7%, U.S. 856 / 11,192 = 7.6%. U.S. gross margin Q2 2026 555 / 856 = 64.8% against 611 / 862 = 70.9%. Swedish Match: 14,460 + 1,495 + 883 = 16,838 total cash paid; U.S. adjusted operating companies income 1,124 / 16,838 = 6.7% pre-tax; reported U.S. OCI 322 / 3,216 = 10.0% of U.S. revenue; adjusted 1,124 / 3,216 = 35.0%. Goodwill and other intangibles 17,264 + 10,884 = 28,148, 28,148 / 69,185 = 40.7% of total assets. Volumes: cigarettes 607,367 / 616,827 - 1 = -1.5% (2025), 607,367 / 612,949 - 1 = -0.9% (2023-2025); heated tobacco units 155,133 / 139,743 - 1 = 11.0% (2025), 139,743 / 125,263 - 1 = 11.6% (2024); HTUs 155,133 / (607,367 + 155,133) = 20.3% of cigarette plus HTU shipments. U.S. ZYN cans 793.7 / 384.8 = 2.06 times (2023-2025), 793.7 / 580.5 - 1 = 36.7% (2025); international nicotine pouches 879.6 - 793.7 = 85.9 million cans (2025), 644.0 - 580.5 = 63.5 (2024); snus 227.9 / 240.4 - 1 = -5.2% (2023-2025); e-vapor 3,330 / 1,651 = 2.0 times. U.S. segment: cigars 358 / 410 - 1 = -12.7%, 358 / 431 - 1 = -16.9% (2023-2025); wellness 238 / 333 - 1 = -28.5%. Cash and dividends: free cash flow 12,233 - 1,569 = 10,664 (2025), 12,217 - 1,444 = 10,773 (2024), 9,204 - 1,321 = 7,883 (2023); dividends paid / free cash flow 8,624 / 10,664 = 80.9% (2025), 8,197 / 10,773 = 76.1% (2024), 7,964 / 7,883 = 101.0% (2023). Payout of declared dividends per share over diluted EPS: 5.64 / 7.26 = 77.7% (2025), 5.30 / 4.52 = 117.3% (2024), 5.14 / 5.02 = 102.4% (2023); over adjusted EPS 5.64 / 7.54 = 74.8%. Annualised dividend 1.60 x 4 = 6.40; 6.40 / 5.64 = 1.13; dividend 5.64 / 1.54 = 3.7 times since 2008; yield 6.40 / 190.48 = 3.4%. R&D 756 / 40,648 = 1.9% of revenue; capex 1,569 / 40,648 = 3.9%. Customers: two customers 12% + 10% = 22% of 2025 net revenues; related-party revenue 4,582 / 40,648 = 11.3%; Megapolis 2,805 / 40,648 = 6.9%; Megapolis growth 2,805 / 2,393 - 1 = 17.2%. Japan 4.2 / 40.6 = 10.3% of net revenues. Canada: RBH carrying value 3,280 fair value at deconsolidation to 51 at 30 June 2026; impairments 2,316 + 511 = 2,827. Valuation: trailing twelve months to June 2026 revenue 40,648 + 21,338 - 19,441 = 42,545; net earnings 11,348 + 5,255 - 5,729 = 10,874; P/E 296.88 / 10.874 = 27.3; P/S 296.88 / 42.545 = 6.98; 2018 P/E 103.78 / 7.911 = 13.1; 2025 P/E 249.68 / 11.348 = 22.0; free cash flow yield 10,664 / 296,880 = 3.6%. Other PMI cigarette brands: 25.4 - 9.8 = 15.6% (2023), 25.3 - 10.7 = 14.6% (2025), a loss of 1.0 point against Marlboro's gain of 0.9. Excise Q2 2026 14,973 / 13,272 - 1 = 12.8% against net revenues 11,192 / 10,140 - 1 = 10.4%. U.S. smoke-free H1 1,584 - 1,311 = 273 decline. ISF H1 2026 gross margin 5,400 / 7,713 = 70.0%. Gross margin 2025 27,282 / 40,648 = 67.1%. ROIC average 2015-2025 (45.6 + 50.2 + 43.4 + 50.7 + 48.7 + 52.1 + 57.2 + 40.6 + 26.8 + 28.6 + 32.5) / 11 = 43.3%. Employees 84,900 - 82,700 = 2,200 (2023-2025); net revenues 40,648 - 35,174 = 5,474, about 5.5 billion. Snus 240.4 - 227.9 = 12.5 million cans. Europe smoke-free 8,127 / 16,854 = 48.2%, about half. Cigarette decline 2% to 3% of 607,367 = 12,147 to 18,221 million units. Operating cash flow over R&D 12,233 / 756 = 16.2 times. Blocked markets 440 / 2,587 = 17%, about a sixth. Market cap against peers 296.88 / 119.41 = 2.5 times British American Tobacco; 296.88 / 114.91 = 2.6 times Altria. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA 43,963 / 17,375 = 2.53. Interest 966 / 14,892 = 6.5% of operating income. Guidance midpoints: (8.35 + 8.50) / 2 = 8.43, reported (7.28 + 7.43) / 2 = 7.36, gap 8.43 - 7.36 = 1.07; earlier adjusted midpoints (8.38 + 8.53) / 2 = 8.46, (8.31 + 8.46) / 2 = 8.39, (8.26 + 8.41) / 2 = 8.34; 8.43 / 7.54 - 1 = 11.8% - growth rates, volumes, margins and excise. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in PMI's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, the recast segment schedules, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
Sources
Generated September 26, 2026