Twenty-Nine Percent Outside China and AmericaWide moat

Philip Morris International (PM) — moat facet

PMI sells more than 29% of the cigarettes and heated sticks bought outside China and the United States, and all of its recent share gain came from IQOS.

PMI's scale in the international market is the base of everything else. Its share of cigarettes and heated tobacco units in the international market, excluding China and the United States, was 28.6% in 2023, 29.0% in 2024 and 29.2% in 20251. That market was about 2,587 billion units in 20252.

PMI total international share, all products (%)28.6202329.22025PMI Form 10-K FY2025; cigarettes plus heated tobacco; market excludes China and the US
The total rose because heated tobacco did.

Scale matters in tobacco for reasons that have little to do with manufacturing cost. It matters for distribution, because PMI's cigarettes are sold in approximately 170 markets3; for regulatory work, because every market has its own rules; and for the capacity to launch a product like IQOS, which needs a sales force able to convert smokers one at a time.

The share has been rising, and the mix of it is changing. The heated-unit component of that share went from 4.7% to 5.8% between 2023 and 20254, while PMI's cigarette share was flat at 25.4% and 25.3%5. All of the growth in PMI's total share came from heated tobacco.

The two markets outside the figure are closed for different reasons. China is a state monopoly; in the United States PMI does not sell cigarettes, and says it has no plans to6.

Scale also means people. PMI employed about 84,900 people at the end of 20257, against 83,100 a year earlier8 and 82,700 at the end of 20239, a headcount that grew by about 2,200 while revenue grew by $5.5 billion10.

This is scale that competitors cannot easily build. International share is the measure of it, 29.2% in 202511; a fall below 28.5% would mean heated tobacco is no longer adding what cigarettes lose.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Share up 0.6 points in two years, all from heated tobacco.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
International cigarette and heated-unit market share
29.2% (2025), from 28.6% in 2023

The scale behind distribution and launches; a fall below 28.5% would mean heated gains no longer offset cigarette losses.

Source: PMI Form 10-K, FY2025 ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
State Monopolies That Sell Their Own
In Algeria, Egypt, China, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam PMI's competitor is a state-owned company, which can change the rules as well as the price.
References
  1. ReportedIts share of cigarettes and heated tobacco units in the international market, excluding China and the United States, was 28.6% in 2023, 29.0% in 2024 and 29.2% in 2025.
    Philip Morris International Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: markets, products, competitors, market shares, shipments and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThat market was about 2,587 billion units in 2025.
    Philip Morris International Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: markets, products, competitors, market shares, shipments and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIt matters for distribution, because PMI's cigarettes are sold in approximately 170 markets; for regulatory work, because every market has its own rules; and for the capacity to launch a product like IQOS, which needs a sales force able to convert smokers one at a time.
    Philip Morris International Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: markets, products, competitors, market shares, shipments and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe heated-unit component of that share went from 4.7% to 5.8% between 2023 and 2025, while PMI's cigarette share was flat at 25.4% and 25.3%.
    Philip Morris International Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: markets, products, competitors, market shares, shipments and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe heated-unit component of that share went from 4.7% to 5.8% between 2023 and 2025, while PMI's cigarette share was flat at 25.4% and 25.3%.
    Philip Morris International Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: markets, products, competitors, market shares, shipments and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedChina is a state monopoly; in the United States PMI does not sell cigarettes, and says it has no plans to.
    Philip Morris International release, 24 August 2026 - contract manufacturing of combustible cigarettes for Philip Morris USA. — August 2026 · publ. 24 August 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedPMI employed about 84,900 people at the end of 2025, against 83,100 a year earlier and 82,700 at the end of 2023, a headcount that grew by about 2,200 while revenue grew by $5.5 billion.
    Philip Morris International Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: markets, products, competitors, market shares, shipments and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedPMI employed about 84,900 people at the end of 2025, against 83,100 a year earlier and 82,700 at the end of 2023, a headcount that grew by about 2,200 while revenue grew by $5.5 billion.
    Philip Morris International Form 10-K for fiscal 2024 - total assets and stockholders' deficit for 2023, total debt at the end of 2023, the weighted-average financing cost, and the Vectura sale. — FY2024 · publ. February 2025 · source ↗
  9. ReportedPMI employed about 84,900 people at the end of 2025, against 83,100 a year earlier and 82,700 at the end of 2023, a headcount that grew by about 2,200 while revenue grew by $5.5 billion.
    Philip Morris International Form 10-K for fiscal 2023 - the six-segment view with Swedish Match and Wellness and Healthcare, and the $665 million Wellness and Healthcare goodwill impairment. — FY2023 · publ. February 2024 · source ↗
  10. Moat Explorer calcPMI employed about 84,900 people at the end of 2025, against 83,100 a year earlier and 82,700 at the end of 2023, a headcount that grew by about 2,200 while revenue grew by $5.5 billion.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Philip Morris International's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Excise and revenue 2025: 53,211 / 40,648 = 1.31 dollars of excise per dollar of net revenue; gross of excise 53,211 + 40,648 = 93,859, excise share 53,211 / 93,859 = 56.7%; excise growth 2023-2025 53,211 / 49,404 - 1 = 7.7% against net revenue growth 40,648 / 35,174 - 1 = 15.6%. Product mix 2025: smoke-free 16,854 / 40,648 = 41.5%; combustible 23,794 / 40,648 = 58.5%; smoke-free 2023 12,840 / 35,174 = 36.5%, 2024 14,660 / 37,878 = 38.7%; smoke-free growth 2023-2025 16,854 / 12,840 - 1 = 31.3%; smoke-free revenue 2016 733 to 2025 16,854 = 23 times. Segments 2025: International Smoke-Free 13,996 / 40,648 = 34.4%; International Combustibles 23,436 / 40,648 = 57.7%; U.S. 3,216 / 40,648 = 7.9%; recast gross profit shares 9,576 / 27,304 = 35.1%, 15,523 / 27,304 = 56.9%, 2,206 / 27,304 = 8.1%. Growth 2025: ISF 13,996 / 12,126 - 1 = 15.4%; IC 23,436 / 22,807 - 1 = 2.8%; U.S. 3,216 / 2,944 - 1 = 9.2%. Growth 2024: ISF 12,126 / 11,102 - 1 = 9.2%; IC 22,807 / 21,903 - 1 = 4.1%; U.S. 2,944 / 2,169 - 1 = 35.7%. IC gross profit 15,523 / 13,972 - 1 = 11.1% against IC revenue 23,436 / 21,903 - 1 = 7.0% (2023-2025). Recast reported gross margins 2023: ISF 7,021 / 11,102 = 63.2%, IC 13,972 / 21,903 = 63.8%; 2024: ISF 7,831 / 12,126 = 64.6%, IC 14,687 / 22,807 = 64.4%. Segment sum 2024 12,126 + 22,807 + 2,944 = 37,877 against 37,878 reported. IC shares of net revenues 21,903 / 35,174 = 62.3% (2023), 22,807 / 37,878 = 60.2% (2024). U.S. revenue 3,216 / 2,169 - 1 = 48.3% (2023-2025). Q2 2026 shares: ISF 3,877 / 11,192 = 34.6%, IC 6,459 / 11,192 = 57.7%, U.S. 856 / 11,192 = 7.6%. U.S. gross margin Q2 2026 555 / 856 = 64.8% against 611 / 862 = 70.9%. Swedish Match: 14,460 + 1,495 + 883 = 16,838 total cash paid; U.S. adjusted operating companies income 1,124 / 16,838 = 6.7% pre-tax; reported U.S. OCI 322 / 3,216 = 10.0% of U.S. revenue; adjusted 1,124 / 3,216 = 35.0%. Goodwill and other intangibles 17,264 + 10,884 = 28,148, 28,148 / 69,185 = 40.7% of total assets. Volumes: cigarettes 607,367 / 616,827 - 1 = -1.5% (2025), 607,367 / 612,949 - 1 = -0.9% (2023-2025); heated tobacco units 155,133 / 139,743 - 1 = 11.0% (2025), 139,743 / 125,263 - 1 = 11.6% (2024); HTUs 155,133 / (607,367 + 155,133) = 20.3% of cigarette plus HTU shipments. U.S. ZYN cans 793.7 / 384.8 = 2.06 times (2023-2025), 793.7 / 580.5 - 1 = 36.7% (2025); international nicotine pouches 879.6 - 793.7 = 85.9 million cans (2025), 644.0 - 580.5 = 63.5 (2024); snus 227.9 / 240.4 - 1 = -5.2% (2023-2025); e-vapor 3,330 / 1,651 = 2.0 times. U.S. segment: cigars 358 / 410 - 1 = -12.7%, 358 / 431 - 1 = -16.9% (2023-2025); wellness 238 / 333 - 1 = -28.5%. Cash and dividends: free cash flow 12,233 - 1,569 = 10,664 (2025), 12,217 - 1,444 = 10,773 (2024), 9,204 - 1,321 = 7,883 (2023); dividends paid / free cash flow 8,624 / 10,664 = 80.9% (2025), 8,197 / 10,773 = 76.1% (2024), 7,964 / 7,883 = 101.0% (2023). Payout of declared dividends per share over diluted EPS: 5.64 / 7.26 = 77.7% (2025), 5.30 / 4.52 = 117.3% (2024), 5.14 / 5.02 = 102.4% (2023); over adjusted EPS 5.64 / 7.54 = 74.8%. Annualised dividend 1.60 x 4 = 6.40; 6.40 / 5.64 = 1.13; dividend 5.64 / 1.54 = 3.7 times since 2008; yield 6.40 / 190.48 = 3.4%. R&D 756 / 40,648 = 1.9% of revenue; capex 1,569 / 40,648 = 3.9%. Customers: two customers 12% + 10% = 22% of 2025 net revenues; related-party revenue 4,582 / 40,648 = 11.3%; Megapolis 2,805 / 40,648 = 6.9%; Megapolis growth 2,805 / 2,393 - 1 = 17.2%. Japan 4.2 / 40.6 = 10.3% of net revenues. Canada: RBH carrying value 3,280 fair value at deconsolidation to 51 at 30 June 2026; impairments 2,316 + 511 = 2,827. Valuation: trailing twelve months to June 2026 revenue 40,648 + 21,338 - 19,441 = 42,545; net earnings 11,348 + 5,255 - 5,729 = 10,874; P/E 296.88 / 10.874 = 27.3; P/S 296.88 / 42.545 = 6.98; 2018 P/E 103.78 / 7.911 = 13.1; 2025 P/E 249.68 / 11.348 = 22.0; free cash flow yield 10,664 / 296,880 = 3.6%. Other PMI cigarette brands: 25.4 - 9.8 = 15.6% (2023), 25.3 - 10.7 = 14.6% (2025), a loss of 1.0 point against Marlboro's gain of 0.9. Excise Q2 2026 14,973 / 13,272 - 1 = 12.8% against net revenues 11,192 / 10,140 - 1 = 10.4%. U.S. smoke-free H1 1,584 - 1,311 = 273 decline. ISF H1 2026 gross margin 5,400 / 7,713 = 70.0%. Gross margin 2025 27,282 / 40,648 = 67.1%. ROIC average 2015-2025 (45.6 + 50.2 + 43.4 + 50.7 + 48.7 + 52.1 + 57.2 + 40.6 + 26.8 + 28.6 + 32.5) / 11 = 43.3%. Employees 84,900 - 82,700 = 2,200 (2023-2025); net revenues 40,648 - 35,174 = 5,474, about 5.5 billion. Snus 240.4 - 227.9 = 12.5 million cans. Europe smoke-free 8,127 / 16,854 = 48.2%, about half. Cigarette decline 2% to 3% of 607,367 = 12,147 to 18,221 million units. Operating cash flow over R&D 12,233 / 756 = 16.2 times. Blocked markets 440 / 2,587 = 17%, about a sixth. Market cap against peers 296.88 / 119.41 = 2.5 times British American Tobacco; 296.88 / 114.91 = 2.6 times Altria. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA 43,963 / 17,375 = 2.53. Interest 966 / 14,892 = 6.5% of operating income. Guidance midpoints: (8.35 + 8.50) / 2 = 8.43, reported (7.28 + 7.43) / 2 = 7.36, gap 8.43 - 7.36 = 1.07; earlier adjusted midpoints (8.38 + 8.53) / 2 = 8.46, (8.31 + 8.46) / 2 = 8.39, (8.26 + 8.41) / 2 = 8.34; 8.43 / 7.54 - 1 = 11.8% - growth rates, volumes, margins and excise. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in PMI's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, the recast segment schedules, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  11. ReportedInternational share is the measure of it, 29.2% in 2025; a fall below 28.5% would mean heated tobacco is no longer adding what cigarettes lose.
    Philip Morris International Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: markets, products, competitors, market shares, shipments and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 26, 2026