⚠ Exclusive Biosimilar ContractsLow threat

AbbVie (ABBV) — threat to the moat

Benefit managers moved Humira patients to biosimilars a whole plan at a time, and they will do the same to Skyrizi after 2033.

Humira's decline is being driven less by doctors than by pharmacy benefit managers. On the fourth-quarter 2025 call management said it anticipated Humira access would decrease further throughout 2026 as more plans move to exclusive biosimilar contracts1. A plan that lists only a biosimilar removes the original drug for every patient it covers.

Humira share of AbbVie revenue (%)58201937202137202227202316.020247.42025AbbVie Forms 10-K FY2021, FY2023; 2024-2025 calculated
From more than half of AbbVie to under a tenth.

AbbVie's rebating is itself the subject of litigation. A health plan lawsuit filed in January 2025 alleges that AbbVie's rebating practices are impairing biosimilar competition with Humira2.

The lesson carries forward. The same benefit managers who are removing Humira will decide Skyrizi's and Rinvoq's access after 2033, and they have shown they will switch a whole book of patients at once.

Europe went first. By 2018 Humira faced direct biosimilar competition in markets representing about 75% of AbbVie's international Humira business3, and the international decline began years before the American one. The American decline was slower at first because benefit managers kept Humira on formularies in exchange for rebates, then faster once they moved to exclusive biosimilar contracts.

The pace of the Humira decline in 2026 is the sign to watch: American Humira sales fell to $425 million in the second quarter4. A similar collapse in the first two years after Skyrizi's patents end would confirm the pattern.

References
  1. ReportedOn the fourth-quarter 2025 call management said it anticipated Humira access would decrease further throughout 2026 as more plans move to exclusive biosimilar contracts.
    The Motley Fool, AbbVie Q4 2025 earnings call transcript - 2026 revenue assumptions by product and management's comments on share and competitors. — Q4 2025 · publ. 4 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedA health plan lawsuit filed in January 2025 alleges that AbbVie's rebating practices are impairing biosimilar competition with Humira.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1A risk factors, patents and exclusivity, government pricing and legal proceedings. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedBy 2018 Humira faced direct biosimilar competition in markets representing about 75% of AbbVie's international Humira business, and the international decline began years before the American one.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2018 - Humira revenue for 2016-2018, the Pharmacyclics and Stemcentrx acquisitions, and selected data for 2014-2018. — FY2018 · publ. February 2019 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe pace of the Humira decline in 2026 is the sign to watch: American Humira sales fell to $425 million in the second quarter.
    AbbVie second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q2 2026 · publ. 31 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026