✦ The Future BetsNarrow moat

AbbVie (ABBV) — the future bets

Every one of AbbVie's big bets is an attempt to have Skyrizi's replacement ready before 2033, as Skyrizi was ready before Humira fell.

AbbVie's bets are all attempts to answer one question: what replaces Skyrizi and Rinvoq after 2033? The company has said it expects high single-digit compound annual revenue growth through 20291. The bets below are how it plans to keep growing after that.

Selected deals ($bn)10.9Apogee (2026)2.1Capstan (2025)0.9Gilgamesh (2025)0.65RemeGen upfront (2026)AbbVie Form 10-K FY2025; Q2 2026 10-Q
Buying the next replacement.

The largest is Apogee Therapeutics, agreed in 2026 for about $10.9 billion2, adding a next-generation immunology programme. The second is the current franchise itself: management's 2026 assumptions put Skyrizi and Rinvoq at about $31.6 billion34, already above its 2027 target5, so how far beyond it they grow sets the size of the eventual cliff.

The others are cheaper and earlier. An oncology programme licensed from RemeGen for $650 million upfront and up to $5.0 billion in milestones6; a psychiatric drug, bretisilocin, from the $906 million Gilgamesh acquisition7; and in-vivo cell therapy from the $2.1 billion Capstan deal8.

All of this is funded partly by debt. Net debt was about $64 billion at 30 June 20269.

The pipeline behind the named bets is broad. AbbVie reports about 90 compounds, devices or indications in development, about 60 of them in mid- and late-stage development10, and says development from discovery through launch typically takes 8 to 12 years11. By that clock, the drugs that must carry AbbVie after 2033 are already in the clinic or being bought now.

The bets are an attempt to buy a second Humira-to-Skyrizi transition in advance. The measure that will judge them is revenue from products launched after 2024 as a share of the total; if it approaches a fifth of revenue by 2030, AbbVie will have repeated the trick.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Apogee agreed; franchise ahead of plan; pipeline filled by purchase.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Net revenue growth, latest quarter
+10.2% (Q2 2026)

The company's growth while it buys its future; a fall toward zero before 2030 would mean the bets are not arriving in time.

Source: AbbVie Q2 2026 results release ↗
✦ Future bets — beyond today's moat
✦ FUTURE BET 01
Apogee: $10.9 Billion for the Next Immunology Drug
AbbVie is paying $10.9 billion in cash for Apogee to have Skyrizi's successor ready before 2033.
✦ FUTURE BET 02
Skyrizi and Rinvoq Past $31 Billion
AbbVie expects Skyrizi and Rinvoq to beat their 2027 sales target a year early, which makes them more valuable and the 2033 cliff steeper.
✦ FUTURE BET 03
RemeGen and the Oncology Rebuild
AbbVie paid $650 million upfront for a Chinese-developed cancer antibody in one of the most crowded races in oncology.
✦ FUTURE BET 04
Psychiatry's Next Drugs: Bretisilocin
AbbVie paid $906 million for a psychedelic-derived depression drug to follow Vraylar, which gets a government price in 2027.
References
  1. ReportedThe company has said it expects high single-digit compound annual revenue growth through 2029.
    AbbVie fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - the Skyrizi and Rinvoq 2027 outlook of more than $31 billion. — FY2024 · publ. 31 January 2025 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe largest is Apogee Therapeutics, agreed in 2026 for about $10.9 billion, adding a next-generation immunology programme.
    AbbVie Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - product revenue, the balance sheet, cash flow and the Apogee agreement. — Q2 2026 · publ. 3 August 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe second is the current franchise itself: management's 2026 assumptions put Skyrizi and Rinvoq at about $31.6 billion, already above its 2027 target, so how far beyond it they grow sets the size of the eventual cliff.
    The Motley Fool, AbbVie Q4 2025 earnings call transcript - 2026 revenue assumptions by product and management's comments on share and competitors. — Q4 2025 · publ. 4 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. Moat Explorer calcThe second is the current franchise itself: management's 2026 assumptions put Skyrizi and Rinvoq at about $31.6 billion, already above its 2027 target, so how far beyond it they grow sets the size of the eventual cliff.
    Moat Explorer calculation from AbbVie's reported product revenue and financial statements ($ millions unless stated). Therapeutic areas 2025: immunology 17,562 + 8,304 + 4,540 = 30,406; neuroscience 3,621 + 3,769 + 1,271 + 1,036 + 482 + 381 + 207 = 10,767; oncology 2,869 + 2,792 + 690 + 271 + 33 = 6,655; aesthetics 2,602 + 993 + 1,265 = 4,860; eye care 493 + 410 + 197 + 1,009 = 2,109; other key products 1,317 + 1,512 + 907 = 3,736; all other 2,627; eye care and other products 2,109 + 3,736 + 2,627 = 8,472; total 61,160. 2024: immunology 11,718 + 5,971 + 8,993 = 26,682; neuroscience 8,999; oncology 6,555; aesthetics 5,176; eye care and other 2,242 + 3,648 + 3,032 = 8,922. 2023: 7,763 + 3,969 + 14,404 = 26,136; neuroscience 7,717; oncology 5,915; aesthetics 5,294; eye care and other 2,415 + 3,806 + 3,035 = 9,256. 2022: 5,165 + 2,522 + 21,237 = 28,924; neuroscience 6,528; oncology 6,577; aesthetics 5,333; eye care and other 2,701 + 3,854 + 4,137 = 10,692. Growth 2025: immunology 30,406 / 26,682 - 1 = 14.0%; neuroscience 10,767 / 8,999 - 1 = 19.6%. Immunology and neuroscience 30,406 + 10,767 = 41,173, 41,173 / 61,160 = 67.3%. Immunology share 30,406 / 61,160 = 49.7%. Skyrizi + Rinvoq: 5,165 + 2,522 = 7,687 (2022); 7,763 + 3,969 = 11,732 (2023); 11,718 + 5,971 = 17,689 (2024); 17,562 + 8,304 = 25,866 (2025); H1 2026 9,988 + 4,644 = 14,632; Q2 2026 5,505 + 2,525 = 8,030, 8,030 / 16,990 = 47.3%; 2026 plan 21.5 + 10.1 = 31.6 bn. Shares of revenue 7,687 / 58,054 = 13.2%; 11,732 / 54,318 = 21.6%; 17,689 / 56,334 = 31.4%; 25,866 / 61,160 = 42.3%. Humira: 4,540 / 21,237 - 1 = -78.6%; share 8,993 / 56,334 = 16.0% (2024), 4,540 / 61,160 = 7.4% (2025). Rebates: 65.1 / 61.16 = 1.06; 65.1 / 18.8 = 3.5 times (2019-2025) against net revenues 61,160 / 33,266 = 1.8 times; gross sales 61.2 + 65.1 = 126.3 bn, 126.3 / 61.2 = 2.1 times; managed care 22,307 / 61,160 = 36.5%; Medicaid and Medicare 21,283 / 61,160 = 34.8%; payers 22,307 + 21,283 = 43,590, 43,590 / 61,160 = 71.3%. Geography: US 46,603 / 61,160 = 76.2%; international 14,557 / 61,160 = 23.8%. Gross margin 2025 (61,160 - 18,204) / 61,160 = 70.2%. Government-set price products, 2025 sales: 2,869 + 3,621 + 907 + 3,769 = 11,166, 11,166 / 61,160 = 18.3%. Goodwill and intangibles 35,640 + 52,641 = 88,281, 88,281 / 133,960 = 65.9%. Eye care share 2,109 / 61,160 = 3.4%; aesthetics share 4,860 / 61,160 = 7.9%. Net debt 30 June 2026: 62,481 + 8,341 - 6,569 = 64,253; net debt / operating cash flow 64,253 / 19,030 = 3.4 years. Free cash flow 2025: 19,030 - 1,214 = 17,816; dividends paid 11,657 / 17,816 = 65.4%; operating cash flow / dividends 19,030 / 11,657 = 1.6; dividends declared / net earnings 11,819 / 4,226 = 2.8; dividends per share 6.65 / 1.75 = 3.8 times (2014-2025). Free cash flow yield 17,816 / 468,500 = 3.8%; free cash flow per share 17,816 / 1,771 = 10.06. 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoints: (14.37 + 14.57) / 2 = 14.47; (13.96 + 14.16) / 2 = 14.06; (14.08 + 14.28) / 2 = 14.18; (13.91 + 14.11) / 2 = 14.01; (13.87 + 14.07) / 2 = 13.97. Ubrelvy and Qulipta Q2 2026 392 + 350 = 742; 2025 1,271 + 1,036 = 2,307. Skyrizi share 17,562 / 61,160 = 28.7%. Juvederm 993 / 1,428 - 1 = -30.5%. Aesthetics 4,860 / 5,176 - 1 = -6.1%. Gross margin 2023 (54,318 - 20,415) / 54,318 = 62.4%. Skyrizi + Rinvoq 2021 2,939 + 1,651 = 4,590; 2022 7,687 / 21,237 = 36% - therapeutic-area totals, growth and rebates. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in AbbVie's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, results releases, the Q4 2025 call and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  5. ReportedThe second is the current franchise itself: management's 2026 assumptions put Skyrizi and Rinvoq at about $31.6 billion, already above its 2027 target, so how far beyond it they grow sets the size of the eventual cliff.
    AbbVie fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - the Skyrizi and Rinvoq 2027 outlook of more than $31 billion. — FY2024 · publ. 31 January 2025 · source ↗
  6. ReportedAn oncology programme licensed from RemeGen for $650 million upfront and up to $5.0 billion in milestones; a psychiatric drug, bretisilocin, from the $906 million Gilgamesh acquisition; and in-vivo cell therapy from the $2.1 billion Capstan deal.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements and notes: earnings, cash flow, balance sheet, acquisitions and contingent consideration. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedAn oncology programme licensed from RemeGen for $650 million upfront and up to $5.0 billion in milestones; a psychiatric drug, bretisilocin, from the $906 million Gilgamesh acquisition; and in-vivo cell therapy from the $2.1 billion Capstan deal.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements and notes: earnings, cash flow, balance sheet, acquisitions and contingent consideration. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedAn oncology programme licensed from RemeGen for $650 million upfront and up to $5.0 billion in milestones; a psychiatric drug, bretisilocin, from the $906 million Gilgamesh acquisition; and in-vivo cell therapy from the $2.1 billion Capstan deal.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements and notes: earnings, cash flow, balance sheet, acquisitions and contingent consideration. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  9. Moat Explorer calcNet debt was about $64 billion at 30 June 2026.
    Moat Explorer calculation from AbbVie's reported product revenue and financial statements ($ millions unless stated). Therapeutic areas 2025: immunology 17,562 + 8,304 + 4,540 = 30,406; neuroscience 3,621 + 3,769 + 1,271 + 1,036 + 482 + 381 + 207 = 10,767; oncology 2,869 + 2,792 + 690 + 271 + 33 = 6,655; aesthetics 2,602 + 993 + 1,265 = 4,860; eye care 493 + 410 + 197 + 1,009 = 2,109; other key products 1,317 + 1,512 + 907 = 3,736; all other 2,627; eye care and other products 2,109 + 3,736 + 2,627 = 8,472; total 61,160. 2024: immunology 11,718 + 5,971 + 8,993 = 26,682; neuroscience 8,999; oncology 6,555; aesthetics 5,176; eye care and other 2,242 + 3,648 + 3,032 = 8,922. 2023: 7,763 + 3,969 + 14,404 = 26,136; neuroscience 7,717; oncology 5,915; aesthetics 5,294; eye care and other 2,415 + 3,806 + 3,035 = 9,256. 2022: 5,165 + 2,522 + 21,237 = 28,924; neuroscience 6,528; oncology 6,577; aesthetics 5,333; eye care and other 2,701 + 3,854 + 4,137 = 10,692. Growth 2025: immunology 30,406 / 26,682 - 1 = 14.0%; neuroscience 10,767 / 8,999 - 1 = 19.6%. Immunology and neuroscience 30,406 + 10,767 = 41,173, 41,173 / 61,160 = 67.3%. Immunology share 30,406 / 61,160 = 49.7%. Skyrizi + Rinvoq: 5,165 + 2,522 = 7,687 (2022); 7,763 + 3,969 = 11,732 (2023); 11,718 + 5,971 = 17,689 (2024); 17,562 + 8,304 = 25,866 (2025); H1 2026 9,988 + 4,644 = 14,632; Q2 2026 5,505 + 2,525 = 8,030, 8,030 / 16,990 = 47.3%; 2026 plan 21.5 + 10.1 = 31.6 bn. Shares of revenue 7,687 / 58,054 = 13.2%; 11,732 / 54,318 = 21.6%; 17,689 / 56,334 = 31.4%; 25,866 / 61,160 = 42.3%. Humira: 4,540 / 21,237 - 1 = -78.6%; share 8,993 / 56,334 = 16.0% (2024), 4,540 / 61,160 = 7.4% (2025). Rebates: 65.1 / 61.16 = 1.06; 65.1 / 18.8 = 3.5 times (2019-2025) against net revenues 61,160 / 33,266 = 1.8 times; gross sales 61.2 + 65.1 = 126.3 bn, 126.3 / 61.2 = 2.1 times; managed care 22,307 / 61,160 = 36.5%; Medicaid and Medicare 21,283 / 61,160 = 34.8%; payers 22,307 + 21,283 = 43,590, 43,590 / 61,160 = 71.3%. Geography: US 46,603 / 61,160 = 76.2%; international 14,557 / 61,160 = 23.8%. Gross margin 2025 (61,160 - 18,204) / 61,160 = 70.2%. Government-set price products, 2025 sales: 2,869 + 3,621 + 907 + 3,769 = 11,166, 11,166 / 61,160 = 18.3%. Goodwill and intangibles 35,640 + 52,641 = 88,281, 88,281 / 133,960 = 65.9%. Eye care share 2,109 / 61,160 = 3.4%; aesthetics share 4,860 / 61,160 = 7.9%. Net debt 30 June 2026: 62,481 + 8,341 - 6,569 = 64,253; net debt / operating cash flow 64,253 / 19,030 = 3.4 years. Free cash flow 2025: 19,030 - 1,214 = 17,816; dividends paid 11,657 / 17,816 = 65.4%; operating cash flow / dividends 19,030 / 11,657 = 1.6; dividends declared / net earnings 11,819 / 4,226 = 2.8; dividends per share 6.65 / 1.75 = 3.8 times (2014-2025). Free cash flow yield 17,816 / 468,500 = 3.8%; free cash flow per share 17,816 / 1,771 = 10.06. 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoints: (14.37 + 14.57) / 2 = 14.47; (13.96 + 14.16) / 2 = 14.06; (14.08 + 14.28) / 2 = 14.18; (13.91 + 14.11) / 2 = 14.01; (13.87 + 14.07) / 2 = 13.97. Ubrelvy and Qulipta Q2 2026 392 + 350 = 742; 2025 1,271 + 1,036 = 2,307. Skyrizi share 17,562 / 61,160 = 28.7%. Juvederm 993 / 1,428 - 1 = -30.5%. Aesthetics 4,860 / 5,176 - 1 = -6.1%. Gross margin 2023 (54,318 - 20,415) / 54,318 = 62.4%. Skyrizi + Rinvoq 2021 2,939 + 1,651 = 4,590; 2022 7,687 / 21,237 = 36% - balance sheet, cash flow, dividends and valuation. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in AbbVie's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, results releases, the Q4 2025 call and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  10. ReportedAbbVie reports about 90 compounds, devices or indications in development, about 60 of them in mid- and late-stage development, and says development from discovery through launch typically takes 8 to 12 years.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: products, customers, competition and research. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedAbbVie reports about 90 compounds, devices or indications in development, about 60 of them in mid- and late-stage development, and says development from discovery through launch typically takes 8 to 12 years.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: products, customers, competition and research. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026