⚠ Switching Is Hard Until the Contract EndsLow threat
CrowdStrike (CRWD) — threat to the moat
CrowdStrike's switching cost is real, but every one-to-three-year contract ends with a renewal a rival can bid for.
The reinstallation barrier is strongest in the middle of a contract and weakest at the end. CrowdStrike's subscriptions typically run one to three years1, so a large part of the base comes up for renewal every year, and each renewal is a moment when a rival can offer to fund the migration.
The company's own risk factors describe what happens when it bends to keep customers. The customer commitment packages "have resulted, and are expected to continue to result, in increased contraction, due to elongated subscription terms, and decreased upsell dollar values"2.
The distribution of CrowdStrike's cloud through AWS, Google and, from fiscal 2027, Microsoft marketplaces3 also makes buying easier, for rivals as well as for CrowdStrike.
The figure that captures renewals is gross retention, last published at 97%4. The first exact figure below 95% would mean renewal dates have become exits.
- ReportedCrowdStrike's subscriptions typically run one to three years, so a large part of the base comes up for renewal every year, and each renewal is a moment when a rival can offer to fund the migration.CrowdStrike Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 31 January 2026) - financial statements and notes: contract terms, deferred revenue, remaining performance obligations, backlog, concentration, revisions and commission amortisation. — FY2026 · publ. 5 March 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedThe customer commitment packages "have resulted, and are expected to continue to result, in increased contraction, due to elongated subscription terms, and decreased upsell dollar values".CrowdStrike Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 31 January 2026) - Item 1A risk factors and Item 3 legal proceedings: competition, the July 19 incident, customer commitment packages, insurance and litigation. — FY2026 · publ. 5 March 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedThe distribution of CrowdStrike's cloud through AWS, Google and, from fiscal 2027, Microsoft marketplaces also makes buying easier, for rivals as well as for CrowdStrike.CrowdStrike Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 31 January 2026) - Item 1 business: the Falcon platform, modules, markets, customers, channels, managed service providers, public sector, employees and the Onum and Pangea acquisitions. — FY2026 · publ. 5 March 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedThe figure that captures renewals is gross retention, last published at 97%.CrowdStrike fourth-quarter and fiscal 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - 97% gross retention, module adoption and Falcon Flex deal value. — Q4 FY2025 · publ. 4 March 2025 · source ↗