YouTube: The Rival for the Same HoursThin moat

Netflix (NFLX) — moat facet

YouTube takes more American television time than Netflix with a platform built on uploads rather than commissioned shows.

YouTube is the competitor that matters most, and it is not a streaming service in Netflix's sense at all. Nielsen measured it at 13.8% of American television watch time in May 2026, "the largest share of television among all distributors for a third consecutive month"1, against Netflix's 8.0%2. The two meet on the same screen in the living room.

Share of US TV time (%)9.0%Netflix Dec 20258.0%Netflix May 202613.8%YouTube May 2026Nielsen, via Netflix Q4 2025 letter and May 2026 Gauge
YouTube leads by almost six points.

The economics differ completely. Netflix paid $16,422 million of content amortization in 20253; YouTube is built on uploads rather than commissioned series, so its cost of content works differently. YouTube is also moving into Netflix's territory: Netflix's own letter notes it has been adding live professional sports and will be the global home of the Oscars from 20294.

The market has noticed. Analysts downgraded Netflix in September 2026 on YouTube taking share of viewing5, and the shares have fallen about 41% in a year6.

Netflix's answer is to borrow YouTube's formats: video podcasts, creators such as Danny Go! and more variety7. That narrows the difference between the services rather than widening it. Alphabet's own pages in this app set out YouTube's side of the contest.

Netflix's own letter treats YouTube as one of several rivals leaning into television, alongside Instagram, which is bringing Reels to TVs with a new app8. The pattern is that social and video platforms built on phones are moving onto the living-room screen, which is where Netflix earns its fee.

Netflix's own measure of its reach is still below that of the television medium it is taking share from. Linear television held over 40% of American TV screen time at the end of 20259, and Netflix's share was 9.0% at its December peak10. YouTube and Netflix are both drawing from that pool; the question is which draws faster.

Nielsen's gauge put the gap at 5.8 points in May 202611. If it keeps widening while Netflix raises prices, the platform built on uploads will be winning the hours that justify Netflix's fee.

Moat trajectory: Narrowing

YouTube led US TV time for a third month in May 2026.

The number that tests this moat
Moat Explorer calc
YouTube lead over Netflix in US TV time
5.8 points (13.8% vs 8.0%, May 2026)

The attention gap; a widening lead while Netflix raises prices would mean YouTube is winning the hours.

How it's calculated: YouTube share (13.8%) less Netflix share (8.0%) of US TV usage in Nielsen's May 2026 Media Distributor Gauge.
Source: Nielsen, May 2026 Gauge ↗
References
  1. Third-party estimateNielsen measured it at 13.8% of American television watch time in May 2026, "the largest share of television among all distributors for a third consecutive month", against Netflix's 8.0%.
    Nielsen, 'Streaming embarks on annual summer ascent in Nielsen's May 2026 Gauge reports' - Media Distributor Gauge: YouTube 13.8% of TV watch time, Netflix 8.0%, Prime Video a platform-best 4.5%; Netflix helped by the acquired series La Brea. — May 2026 · publ. 28 July 2026 · source ↗
  2. Third-party estimateNielsen measured it at 13.8% of American television watch time in May 2026, "the largest share of television among all distributors for a third consecutive month", against Netflix's 8.0%.
    Nielsen, 'Streaming embarks on annual summer ascent in Nielsen's May 2026 Gauge reports' - Media Distributor Gauge: YouTube 13.8% of TV watch time, Netflix 8.0%, Prime Video a platform-best 4.5%; Netflix helped by the acquired series La Brea. — May 2026 · publ. 28 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedNetflix paid $16,422 million of content amortization in 2025; YouTube is built on uploads rather than commissioned series, so its cost of content works differently.
    Netflix Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - content assets, amortization and content obligations notes. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedYouTube is also moving into Netflix's territory: Netflix's own letter notes it has been adding live professional sports and will be the global home of the Oscars from 2029.
    Netflix fourth-quarter 2025 shareholder letter, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - 325 million paid memberships, 2026 guidance, advertising revenue, named competitors, content licensing and the pause in buybacks. — Q4 2025 · publ. 20 January 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedAnalysts downgraded Netflix in September 2026 on YouTube taking share of viewing, and the shares have fallen about 41% in a year.
    Netflix (NFLX) market data - $71.15 a share at the close on 25 September 2026, market cap $296.24B, 52-week range $65.08-$124.86, 51 analysts with a $92.93 target; analyst downgrades on YouTube's share of viewing; Paramount's settlement with states on its $110B WBD deal. — September 2026 · publ. 25 September 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedAnalysts downgraded Netflix in September 2026 on YouTube taking share of viewing, and the shares have fallen about 41% in a year.
    Netflix (NFLX) statistics - trailing P/E 22.41, forward P/E 20.55, P/S 6.12, FCF yield 3.76%, 1-year change -40.91%, no dividend. — September 2026 · publ. 25 September 2026 · source ↗
  7. Reportedand more variety.
    Netflix second-quarter 2026 shareholder letter, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - quarterly results, regional revenue, 2026 guidance, view hours, live programming and advertising - programming, engagement, live events and product. — Q2 2026 · publ. 16 July 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedNetflix's own letter treats YouTube as one of several rivals leaning into television, alongside Instagram, which is bringing Reels to TVs with a new app.
    Netflix fourth-quarter 2025 shareholder letter, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - 325 million paid memberships, 2026 guidance, advertising revenue, named competitors, content licensing and the pause in buybacks. — Q4 2025 · publ. 20 January 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedLinear television held over 40% of American TV screen time at the end of 2025, and Netflix's share was 9.0% at its December peak.
    Netflix fourth-quarter 2025 shareholder letter, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - 325 million paid memberships, 2026 guidance, advertising revenue, named competitors, content licensing and the pause in buybacks. — Q4 2025 · publ. 20 January 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedLinear television held over 40% of American TV screen time at the end of 2025, and Netflix's share was 9.0% at its December peak.
    Netflix fourth-quarter 2025 shareholder letter, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - 325 million paid memberships, 2026 guidance, advertising revenue, named competitors, content licensing and the pause in buybacks. — Q4 2025 · publ. 20 January 2026 · source ↗
  11. Moat Explorer calcNielsen's gauge put the gap at 5.8 points in May 2026.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Netflix's reported financial statements, shareholder letters and market data ($ millions unless stated). Content amortization / revenue: 14,026.1 / 31,615.6 = 44.4% (2022); 14,197.4 / 33,723.3 = 42.1% (2023); 15,301.5 / 39,001.0 = 39.2% (2024); 16,422.2 / 45,183.0 = 36.3% (2025); Q2 2026 4,311.3 / 12,559.9 = 34.3%. Revenue growth 2022-2025: 45,183.0 / 31,615.6 - 1 = 43%; 2025 45,183.0 / 39,001.0 - 1 = 15.9%. Operating income 13,326.6 / 5,632.8 = 2.4 times. Gross margin (45,183.0 - 23,275.3) / 45,183.0 = 48.5% (2025); (33,723.3 - 19,715.4) / 33,723.3 = 41.5% (2023). Q3 2025 operating margin excluding the Brazil charge (3,248 + 619) / 11,510 = 33.6%. Additions to content assets Q2 2026 4,927.5 / 3,835.8 - 1 = 28%. Cash content spend = additions less change in content liabilities: 16,839.0 - 179.3 = 16,659.7 (2022), 12,554.7 + 585.6 = 13,140.3 (2023), 16,223.6 + 779.1 = 17,002.8 (2024), 17,096.6 + 610.8 = 17,707.5 (2025); ratio to amortization 16,659.7 / 14,026.1 = 1.19, 13,140.3 / 14,197.4 = 0.93, 17,002.8 / 15,301.5 = 1.11, 17,707.5 / 16,422.2 = 1.08. Licensed share of amortization 8,713.6 / 16,422.2 = 53%; licensed growth 8,713.6 / 7,689.0 - 1 = 13.3%; produced growth 7,708.6 / 7,612.5 - 1 = 1.3%. Produced share of content assets 20,639.8 / 32,778.4 = 63%; content assets / amortization 32,778.4 / 16,422.2 = 2.0 years. Tax incentives / produced amortization 1,000 / 7,708.6 = 13%; tax incentives / operating income 1,000 / 13,326.6 = 7.5%. Employees outside UCAN 16,000 - 10,900 = 5,100. Capex / revenue 688.2 / 45,183.0 = 1.5%; capex growth 688.2 / 439.5 - 1 = 57%. Free cash flow = operating cash flow less capex: 10,149.3 - 688.2 = 9,461.1 (2025); 7,361.4 - 439.5 = 6,921.8 (2024); 7,274.3 - 348.6 = 6,925.7 (2023); FCF / revenue 9,461.1 / 45,183.0 = 20.9%; FCF / net income 9,461.1 / 10,981.2 = 86%; capex / FCF 348.6 / 6,925.7 = 5.0%, 439.5 / 6,921.8 = 6.4%, 688.2 / 9,461.1 = 7.3%. Buybacks / FCF 9,127.2 / 9,461.1 = 96%; buybacks 2024 + 2025 6,263.7 + 9,127.2 = 15,390.9; diluted shares 4,261 / 4,349 - 1 = -2.0%; remaining authorization 27.1 / 296.24 = 9%. Year-end P/E = market value / net income: 213.10 / 5.408 = 39.4 (2023), 381.00 / 8.712 = 43.7 (2024), 397.29 / 10.981 = 36.2 (2025), trailing 296.24 / 13.650 = 21.7. Net debt / equity end 2025 (14,462.8 - 9,033.7 - 28.7) / 26,615.5 = 0.20; interest / operating income 776.5 / 13,326.6 = 5.8%; termination fee / 2025 net income 2,800 / 10,981.2 = 25%; ROE 10,981.2 / ((26,615.5 + 24,743.6) / 2) = 43%; net income growth 10,981.2 / 8,711.6 - 1 = 26%. Pre-tax income 2025 10,981.2 + 1,741.4 = 12,722.6, one point of tax rate = 127; six points = 763. UCAN ARM 17.20 / 15.86 - 1 = 8.4%; UCAN net additions 80,128 - 74,296 = 5,832 (2023), 89,625 - 80,128 = 9,497 (2024); paid memberships growth 301,626 / 260,276 - 1 = 16%; top plan price 37 / 32 - 1 = 15.6%. Obligations: due in 12 months / revenue 11,528.0 / 45,183.0 = 25.5%; obligations / debt 25.1 / 14.3 = 1.75; off balance sheet 18.4 / 24.0 = 76% (end 2025), 19.6 / 25.1 = 78% (June 2026). Advertising: 1.5 / 45.2 = 3.3% of 2025 revenue; 3.0 / 51.2 = 5.9% of the 2026 guidance midpoint (51.0 + 51.4) / 2 = 51.2. Nielsen gap 13.8 - 8.0 = 5.8 points. Regions: 2025 shares UCAN 19,957.2 / 45,183.0 = 44.2%, EMEA 14,514.6 / 45,183.0 = 32.1%, LATAM 5,357.5 / 45,183.0 = 11.9%, APAC 5,353.7 / 45,183.0 = 11.8%; Q2 2026 UCAN 5,432 / 12,560 = 43.2%. UCAN growth 14,873.8 / 14,084.6 - 1 = 5.6% (2023), 17,359.4 / 14,873.8 - 1 = 16.7% (2024), 19,957.2 / 17,359.4 - 1 = 15.0% (2025). EMEA memberships 101,133 / 76,729 - 1 = 31.8%; APAC memberships 57,541 / 38,023 - 1 = 51.3%; APAC revenue 5,353.7 / 3,570.2 - 1 = 50%. UCAN share of 2022 streaming revenue 14,084.6 / 31,469.9 = 44.8%. Memberships 2022-2024: UCAN 89,625 / 74,296 - 1 = 20.6%, LATAM 53,327 / 41,699 - 1 = 27.9%. ARM gap UCAN less APAC 15.86 - 8.50 = 7.36 (2022), 17.20 - 7.29 = 9.91 (2024). H1 2026 revenue 24,809.7 / 51,200 = 48.5% of the guidance midpoint. Diluted shares 4,343,863 / 4,494,966 - 1 = -3.4%. Average buyback price Q2 2026 4.7bn / 52.93M shares = about $89; 2025 9,127.2 / 86.54M shares = about $105; 71.15 / 105 - 1 = -32%. Analyst target 92.93 / 71.15 - 1 = 31%. US revenue 18.5 / 13.8 - 1 = 34%. Hedging swing 124 - (-91) = 215. Revenue 2023-2025 45,183.0 / 33,723.3 - 1 = 34%; employees 16,000 / 13,000 - 1 = 23%. Q2 net income 3,401 / 3,125 - 1 = 8.8%. DVD revenue = total revenue less streaming revenue: 33,723.3 - 33,640.5 = 82.8 (2023); 31,615.6 - 31,469.9 = 145.7 (2022) - regional revenue, memberships and viewing share. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Netflix's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, shareholder letters, Nielsen's May 2026 Gauge and market data; operands shown in the source line.
Sources
Generated September 26, 2026