⚠ A Fee Pool That Comes and GoesLow threat

Wells Fargo (WFC) — threat to the moat

Wells Fargo's investment banking gains will be tested by the first quiet year for deals.

Advisory and underwriting fees depend on companies wanting to do deals. Wells Fargo's CIB investment banking revenue grew from $1,404 million in 2023 to $2,008 million in 20251, in years when deal markets recovered.

CIB revenue lines, 2025 ($M)2,522Lending2,507Treasury management2,008Investment bankingWells Fargo Form 10-K FY2025, CIB revenue by line of business
Investment banking is still the smallest banking line.

A lender that builds an investment bank takes on that cycle. The loans stay on the balance sheet when deals stop; the fees do not.

The bank's rankings are also narrow measures. A leveraged finance share of 7.2%2 is a share of loans to riskier borrowers, which is income the bank earns partly by taking credit risk.

Lending, the base of those relationships, is not growing. CIB lending revenue fell from $2,872 million in 2023 to $2,522 million in 20253.

Rankings can move with a few mandates. The bank's announced American M&A deal volume rank went from ninth to fourth4, and a quiet half-year could reverse much of that.

The growth rate is already slowing. CIB investment banking revenue rose about 29% in 2024, from $1,404 million to $1,814 million, and about 11% in 202556. A fee pool that recovers fast also stops recovering fast, and the bank's results will then depend on share alone. The swing is visible within a year too: company-wide investment banking fees rose 18% in a single quarter of 20267.

Total CIB Banking revenue, $2,013 million in the second quarter of 20268, is the broader measure. A quarter in which it fell by a fifth year on year would show how much of the recent gain was the market.

References
  1. ReportedWells Fargo's CIB investment banking revenue grew from $1,404 million in 2023 to $2,008 million in 2025, in years when deal markets recovered.
    Wells Fargo 2025 Annual Report to Shareholders (financial statements, MD&A and segment note), part of the Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - segment revenue by line of business and selected metrics (branches, digital customers, client and advisory assets, card and mortgage volumes). — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedA leveraged finance share of 7.2% is a share of loans to riskier borrowers, which is income the bank earns partly by taking credit risk.
    Wells Fargo second-quarter 2026 earnings presentation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.3 - segment returns, deposit cost, market shares and the 2026 outlook - consolidated results, deposit cost, capital and the 2026 outlook. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedCIB lending revenue fell from $2,872 million in 2023 to $2,522 million in 2025.
    Wells Fargo 2025 Annual Report to Shareholders (financial statements, MD&A and segment note), part of the Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - segment revenue by line of business and selected metrics (branches, digital customers, client and advisory assets, card and mortgage volumes). — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe bank's announced American M&A deal volume rank went from ninth to fourth, and a quiet half-year could reverse much of that.
    Wells Fargo second-quarter 2026 earnings presentation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.3 - segment returns, deposit cost, market shares and the 2026 outlook - segment returns, average balances and business highlights. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedCIB investment banking revenue rose about 29% in 2024, from $1,404 million to $1,814 million, and about 11% in 2025.
    Wells Fargo 2025 Annual Report to Shareholders (financial statements, MD&A and segment note), part of the Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - segment revenue by line of business and selected metrics (branches, digital customers, client and advisory assets, card and mortgage volumes). — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. Moat Explorer calcCIB investment banking revenue rose about 29% in 2024, from $1,404 million to $1,814 million, and about 11% in 2025.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Wells Fargo's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Deposits: cost of total deposits = interest on interest-bearing deposits / (average interest-bearing + average noninterest-bearing deposits): 2020 2,804 / 1,376,011 = 0.20%; 2021 388 / 1,437,812 = 0.03%; 2022 2,349 / 1,424,269 = 0.16%; 2023 16,503 / 1,346,282 = 1.23%; 2024 24,282 / 1,345,915 = 1.80%; 2025 20,449 / (987,198 + 360,047 = 1,347,245) = 1.52%. Bank of America 2025: 34,513 / (1,469,705 + 514,477 = 1,984,182) = 1.74%. Gap to JPMorgan 1.80% - 1.52% = 0.28 points x 1,347,245 = about 3,772 (about $3.8 billion); gap to Bank of America 1.74% - 1.52% = 0.22 points. Noninterest-bearing share of average deposits: 2020 412,669 / 1,376,011 = 30.0%; 2021 499,644 / 1,437,812 = 34.8%; 2022 505,770 / 1,424,269 = 35.5%; 2023 399,737 / 1,346,282 = 29.7%; 2024 352,379 / 1,345,915 = 26.2%; 2025 360,047 / 1,347,245 = 26.7%. Average deposits 2023-2025 range 1,345,915 to 1,347,245 = 1,330 (about $1.3 billion). Period-end deposits 1,371,804 / 1,335,991 - 1 = 2.7% (Dec 2017 to Dec 2024); Dec 2025 to Jun 2026 1,501,405 - 1,426,207 = 75,198 (about $75 billion). Consumer Banking and Lending share of average deposits Q2 2026 828.4 / 1,465.6 = 57%. Held-to-maturity: Dec 2024 carrying 234,948 - fair value 193,779 = 41,169 unrealised loss; June 2026 loss 32,408 / common equity 165,000 = 19.6%. Balance sheet: total assets 2,282,201 / 1,951,757 - 1 = 16.9% above the 2017 cap level; 2,282,201 - 1,929,845 = 352,356 (about $352 billion); 2,282,201 / 1,929,845 - 1 = 18.3% (about 18%). CIB total assets 862,472 / 597,278 - 1 = 44%. Average loans Q2 2026 1,026.5 - 916.7 = 109.8; CIB 359.4 - 285.9 = 73.5; 73.5 / 109.8 = 67% (about two-thirds). CIB share of average loans 359.4 / 1,026.5 = 35.0% (Q2 2026); 285.9 / 916.7 = 31.2% (Q2 2025). Trading-related assets 401.5 / 283.7 - 1 = 41.5%; Markets loans 111.2 / 79.0 - 1 = 40.8%; CIB average loans 359.4 / 285.9 - 1 = 25.7%. Tangible common equity / total assets: Dec 2024 135.6 / 1,929.8 = 7.0%; June 2026 139.7 / 2,282.2 = 6.1%. Branches 4,079 - 5,032 = -953; 4,079 / 5,032 - 1 = -19%. Mobile active customers 33.7 / 29.9 - 1 = 13%. Headcount 197,466 / 212,804 - 1 = -7%. Personnel expense 36,281 / noninterest expense 54,842 = 66% (about two-thirds). Efficiency gap to JPMorgan (66% - 52%) x 83,699 = about 11,718 (about $11.7 billion). JPMorgan deposits 2,559,320 / 1,426,207 - 1 = 79%; market value 911.91 / 250.90 = 3.6 times. Capital: CET1 headroom 10.3% - 8.5% = 1.8 points. Returned 2025 (17.7 billion buybacks + 6.5 billion dividends - 1.053 billion preferred dividends) / 20.285 billion net income to common = 114%. Average diluted shares 3,242.3 / 5,108.3 - 1 = -36.5% (2016 to 2025). EPS 6.26 / 4.12 - 1 = 52%. Revenue 83,699 / 86,057 - 1 = -2.7% (2015 to 2025). Trailing twelve months to June 2026: revenue 21,436 + 21,292 + 21,446 + 22,622 = 86,796; net income 5,589 + 5,361 + 5,253 + 6,407 = 22,610; EPS 1.66 + 1.62 + 1.60 + 2.00 = 6.88. First half 2026: net income 5,253 + 6,407 = 11,660; net interest income 12,096 + 12,317 = 24,413; noninterest expense 14,330 + 13,661 = 27,991, about 50.3% of the ~55,700 guidance. Market value 250.90 / 298.75 - 1 = -16% (end 2017 to Sept 2026). Segments (2025): revenue 37,362 + 11,978 + 19,232 + 16,328 = 84,900; plus Corporate 747, less Reconciling Items 1,948 = 83,699. Shares of segment revenue: Consumer Banking and Lending 37,362 / 84,900 = 44%; Commercial Banking 11,978 / 84,900 = 14%; CIB 19,232 / 84,900 = 23%; Wealth and Investment Management 16,328 / 84,900 = 19%. Shares of company net income 21,338: Consumer Banking and Lending 7,865 = 37%; CIB 7,283 = 34%; Commercial Banking 4,184 = 20%; Wealth and Investment Management 2,119 = 10%. CIB share of segment net income 7,283 / (7,865 + 4,184 + 7,283 + 2,119 = 21,451) = 34%; of total revenue 19,232 / 83,699 = 23%. Wealth net income / revenue 2,119 / 16,328 = 13%. Commercial Banking net income 4,184 / 5,104 - 1 = -18%. CIB Banking 2,522 + 2,507 + 2,008 = 7,037. Investment banking 2,008 / 1,404 - 1 = 43%. Credit card revenue 6,375 / 5,809 - 1 = 10%; Auto 1,016 / 1,464 - 1 = -31%. Advisory assets 1,127 / 891 - 1 = 26%. Consumer Banking and Lending share of Q2 2026 revenue 10,288 / 22,622 = 45%. Consumer Banking and Lending provision 3,362 / total provision 3,658 = 92%. Markets loans 111.2 - 79.0 = 32.2; 32.2 / 73.5 = 44% of the CIB loan increase. Investment banking share of CIB revenue 1,404 / 19,191 = 7% (2023); 2,008 / 19,232 = 10% (2025). Debit plus credit card purchase volume 530.5 + 186.0 = 716.5 billion. More deposits: noninterest-bearing deposits 505,770 - 360,047 = 145,723 (about $146 billion, 2022 to 2025); average deposits 1,424,269 - 1,347,245 = 77,024 (about $77 billion). Interest on interest-bearing deposits 24,282 - 20,449 = 3,833 (about $3.8 billion). Bank of America 2024 all-in deposit cost 38,442 / 1,924,106 = 2.00%. JPMorgan average deposits 2,506,565 / 1,347,245 = 1.9 times. Average loans to average deposits Q2 2026 1,026.5 / 1,465.6 = 70%. Bank of America deposits 2,018,729 / 1,426,207 - 1 = 42%. Held-to-maturity share of total assets 198,573 / 2,282,201 = 8.7% (June 2026); 208,023 / 2,148,631 = 9.7% (Dec 2025). More balance sheet and valuation: branches closed 5,032 - 4,777 = 255 (2021); 4,598 - 4,311 = 287 (2023); 4,177 - 4,090 = 87 (2025); 4,090 - 4,079 = 11 (H1 2026); 4,311 - 4,079 = 232 (end 2023 to June 2026). Second half 2025 assets 2,148,631 - 1,981,269 = 167,362 (about $167 billion). Market value 233.86 / 298.75 - 1 = -22% (end 2017 to end 2024); Bank of America 394.32 / 250.90 - 1 = 57%; market value over trailing net income 250.90 / 22.61 = 11.1 times. Risk-weighted assets 137.7 / 0.103 = about 1,337 billion (about $1.34 trillion). Total equity 182,323 / 2,282,201 = 8.0%. 2016 penalties 100 + 35 + 50 = 185 million. Commercial Banking net interest income 7,902 / 11,978 = 66%. Consumer Banking and Lending deposit surplus 779,994 - 322,052 = 457,942 (about $458 billion) - segment shares, margins and growth. — Length additions: held-to-maturity Dec 2025 208,023 - 175,797 = 32,226; carrying value 208,023 - 198,573 = 9,450 (about $9.5 billion in six months). Interest on interest-bearing deposits 16,503 / 2,349 = 7.0 (about seven times). Consumer Banking and Lending net interest income 29,183 / 37,362 = 78%. Average deposits per branch 1,437,812 / 4,777 = 301 (2021); 1,347,245 / 4,090 = 329 (2025). Deposits Dec 2024 to Jun 2026 1,501,405 - 1,371,804 = 129,601 (about $130 billion). TLAC cushion 23.22 - 21.50 = 1.72 points; 22.81 - 21.50 = 1.31 points. CIB assets 862,472 / 2,282,201 = 38%; CIB period-end assets 787,751 / 597,278 - 1 = 32%. CIB investment banking 1,814 / 1,404 - 1 = 29%; 2,008 / 1,814 - 1 = 11%; Q2 2026 628 / 5,425 = 12%. CIB revenue per dollar of expense 19,232 / 9,436 = 2.04; Consumer Banking and Lending 37,362 / 23,515 = 1.59. CRE 5,083 / 19,232 = 26%. Q2 2026 expense 13,661 / 13,379 - 1 = 2.1%; revenue 22,622 / 20,822 - 1 = 8.6%. Headcount 205 - 197 = 8 thousand. Average assets per employee 1,933.4 / 212,804 = $9.1 million (Q2 2025); 2,227.9 / 197,466 = $11.3 million (Q2 2026), +24%. Personnel expense per employee 36,281 / 205,000 = 0.177 ($177,000). Efficiency gap to Bank of America (66% - 61.65%) x 83,699 = 3,641 (about $3.6 billion). Risk-weighted assets about 1,340 billion x 1% = about $13 billion per point; 9.80% - 8.50% = 1.30 points x 1,340 = about $17 billion. Stockholders equity 180,190 / 206,936 - 1 = -12.9%. Charge-offs 876 x 4 = 3,504 (about $3.5 billion); 14,129 / 139,700 = 10.1%. JPMorgan cost of total deposits 2024 2.08% against Wells Fargo 1.80%. ROTCE H1 2026 16.1% - 14.4% = 1.7 points. Target 17.5% x 139.7 = 24.4 billion; 24.4 / 20.285 = 1.20. Net income 6,407 x 4 = 25,628 (about $25.6 billion). H1 2026 expense 27,991 / 55,700 = 50.3%; net interest income 24,413 / 50,000 = 48.8%. Credit card revenue 6,375 / 5,908 - 1 = 7.9%; Auto 1,016 / 1,464 - 1 = -30.6%. Home Lending 3,364 / 37,362 = 9.0%; originations 26.3 / 986.2 = 2.7%. Buybacks 22.7 billion / 79.80 = 284 million shares; 284 / 3,085.6 = 9.2%. Tangible book 1 / 1.79 = 0.56. Dividend 0.50 x 4 x 3.02 billion = 6.04 (about $6.0 billion). Accounts 16 million / 32.8 million = 49%. Remediation 236 / 160,700 = 0.15%. Advisory assets 1,127 / 2,509 = 45%. Investment banking fees 3,027 / 83,699 = 3.6%. Advisory fees 10,498 / 36,215 = 29%. Branches 4,090 - 4,079 = 11. Buyback runway 22.7 / 17.7 = 1.3 years (about fifteen months); 22.7 / (7 x 2) = 1.6 years. Deposits 1,347,245 / 1,376,011 - 1 = -2.1%. Q2 2026 consumer bank share 10,288 / 22,622 = 45%. Card fees 4,589 / mortgage banking 1,152 = 4.0. 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Wells Fargo's annual reports, Forms 10-Q, earnings releases and presentations, JPMorgan's and Bank of America's Forms 10-K and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  7. ReportedThe swing is visible within a year too: company-wide investment banking fees rose 18% in a single quarter of 2026.
    Wells Fargo second-quarter 2026 earnings presentation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.3 - segment returns, deposit cost, market shares and the 2026 outlook - consolidated results, deposit cost, capital and the 2026 outlook. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedTotal CIB Banking revenue, $2,013 million in the second quarter of 2026, is the broader measure.
    Wells Fargo second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment results and business descriptions. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026