⚠ A 2031 Patent and a Five Percent RoyaltyModerate threat

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) — threat to the moat

Tremfya is protected in the United States until 2031, so the replacement has about five years before it needs a replacement of its own.

Tremfya replaced Stelara, and it will need replacing too. Janssen Biotech owns multiple patent families related to Tremfya, including a composition patent family projected to expire in the United States in 20311. It also pays third parties an aggregate royalty of approximately 5.0% of total Tremfya net sales2.

Tremfya worldwide sales ($M)3,14720233,67020245,15520253,654H1 2026Composition patent to 2031 in the US; J&J 10-K FY2025, Q2 2026 schedules
Growing fast toward its own expiry.

That gives the successor about five years of protected life from today. Tremfya was 5.5% of J&J's revenue in 20253, and in the first half of 2026 it sold $3,654 million, up 70.6%4. The faster it grows before 2031, the larger the gap it leaves.

The risk factors also note increasingly aggressive and frequent challenges to the company's patents by competitors seeking to launch biosimilar products5. A successful early challenge would bring the Stelara pattern forward.

J&J already has the next immunology product in the market. In the first quarter of 2026 the FDA approved Icotyde, described by J&J as the first-and-only targeted oral peptide for plaque psoriasis6, an oral treatment in a field dominated by injections. Other immunology, the line that includes new products, sold $104 million in the second quarter of 2026 against $8 million a year earlier7. A pill that works as well as an injection could become the successor to the successor, if it reaches scale before 2031.

The royalty is modest next to Darzalex's. Tremfya's aggregate third-party royalty of about 5.0%8 compares with Darzalex's 12% to 20%9, so each dollar of Tremfya growth keeps more for J&J than a dollar of Darzalex growth. That makes the immunology successor more valuable per dollar of sales than the larger oncology franchise.

The figure to keep an eye on is the share of immunology revenue from products protected beyond 2031. If Tremfya is still the whole immunology story in 2029, the Stelara problem has simply been postponed.

References
  1. ReportedJanssen Biotech owns multiple patent families related to Tremfya, including a composition patent family projected to expire in the United States in 2031.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 1 business: segments, competition, patents, the three largest products, royalties, collaboration partners and the regulatory table. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIt also pays third parties an aggregate royalty of approximately 5.0% of total Tremfya net sales.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 1 business: segments, competition, patents, the three largest products, royalties, collaboration partners and the regulatory table. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedTremfya was 5.5% of J&J's revenue in 2025, and in the first half of 2026 it sold $3,654 million, up 70.6%.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 1 business: segments, competition, patents, the three largest products, royalties, collaboration partners and the regulatory table. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedTremfya was 5.5% of J&J's revenue in 2025, and in the first half of 2026 it sold $3,654 million, up 70.6%.
    Johnson & Johnson second-quarter 2026 supplementary sales data, statement of earnings and non-GAAP reconciliation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - Innovative Medicine and total sales by product, segment and region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 15 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe risk factors also note increasingly aggressive and frequent challenges to the company's patents by competitors seeking to launch biosimilar products.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 1A risk factors, Note 19 legal proceedings (talc, Innovative Health, Auris, Tracleer) and the Inflation Reduction Act. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIn the first quarter of 2026 the FDA approved Icotyde, described by J&J as the first-and-only targeted oral peptide for plaque psoriasis, an oral treatment in a field dominated by injections.
    Johnson & Johnson first-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q1 2026 · publ. 14 April 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedOther immunology, the line that includes new products, sold $104 million in the second quarter of 2026 against $8 million a year earlier.
    Johnson & Johnson second-quarter 2026 supplementary sales data, statement of earnings and non-GAAP reconciliation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - Innovative Medicine and total sales by product, segment and region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 15 July 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedTremfya's aggregate third-party royalty of about 5.0% compares with Darzalex's 12% to 20%, so each dollar of Tremfya growth keeps more for J&J than a dollar of Darzalex growth.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 1 business: segments, competition, patents, the three largest products, royalties, collaboration partners and the regulatory table. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedTremfya's aggregate third-party royalty of about 5.0% compares with Darzalex's 12% to 20%, so each dollar of Tremfya growth keeps more for J&J than a dollar of Darzalex growth.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 1 business: segments, competition, patents, the three largest products, royalties, collaboration partners and the regulatory table. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026