⚠ Invega Shrinks Under the Part D RedesignModerate threat

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) — threat to the moat

J&J's largest psychiatry drug lost about a tenth of its sales to a change in Medicare's rules, not to a competitor.

The largest product in J&J's neuroscience business is shrinking because of a change in how Medicare pays for drugs. Invega's long-acting family sold $4,115 million in 2023, $4,222 million in 2024 and $3,810 million in 20251, and the filing names the impact of Medicare Part D redesign as the primary cause2.

Invega long-acting family sales ($M)4,11520234,22220243,8102025992Q2 20251,015Q2 2026J&J Form 10-K FY2025; Q2 2026 financial schedules
A payment rule, not a rival, took the 2025 decline.

The same redesign appears in the explanations for Erleada, Imbruvica, Opsumit, Uptravi and Stelara3. It is not a competitor taking share; it is a change in who pays what at the pharmacy counter, and it applies to every drug the program covers.

In the second quarter of 2026 Invega grew 2.3% to $1,015 million4, so the decline has at least paused. But a product that loses a tenth of its sales to a payment rule shows how much of any drug's revenue depends on rules J&J does not write.

The redesign moves money in both directions across the portfolio. Xarelto grew 11.0% in 2025, and the filing says that growth was primarily driven by the impact of Medicare Part D redesign and market growth, partially offset by continued share loss5. The same rule that took a tenth of Invega's sales added to Xarelto's. That is a reminder that J&J's reported growth in any year includes the net effect of policy changes it does not control, in both directions.

The first half of 2026 was better: the Invega family grew 8.4% to $2,053 million6. If that holds, the 2025 fall looks like a one-time reset to the new payment rules rather than the start of a slide, which is the distinction the closing measure is meant to capture.

Invega's growth over the next four quarters will tell. Returning to its 2024 level would mean the redesign was a one-off step down; another decline would mean it is a slope.

References
  1. ReportedInvega's long-acting family sold $4,115 million in 2023, $4,222 million in 2024 and $3,810 million in 2025, and the filing names the impact of Medicare Part D redesign as the primary cause.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A: Innovative Medicine segment, therapeutic-area and product sales analysis. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedInvega's long-acting family sold $4,115 million in 2023, $4,222 million in 2024 and $3,810 million in 2025, and the filing names the impact of Medicare Part D redesign as the primary cause.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A: Innovative Medicine segment, therapeutic-area and product sales analysis. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe same redesign appears in the explanations for Erleada, Imbruvica, Opsumit, Uptravi and Stelara.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A: Innovative Medicine segment, therapeutic-area and product sales analysis. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIn the second quarter of 2026 Invega grew 2.3% to $1,015 million, so the decline has at least paused.
    Johnson & Johnson second-quarter 2026 supplementary sales data, statement of earnings and non-GAAP reconciliation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - Innovative Medicine and total sales by product, segment and region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 15 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedXarelto grew 11.0% in 2025, and the filing says that growth was primarily driven by the impact of Medicare Part D redesign and market growth, partially offset by continued share loss.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A: Innovative Medicine segment, therapeutic-area and product sales analysis. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe first half of 2026 was better: the Invega family grew 8.4% to $2,053 million.
    Johnson & Johnson second-quarter 2026 supplementary sales data, statement of earnings and non-GAAP reconciliation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - Innovative Medicine and total sales by product, segment and region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 15 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026