⚠ Imbruvica Shows the Other EndingModerate threat

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) — threat to the moat

Imbruvica lost more than a third of its United States sales in a year to competitors, without any patent expiring.

J&J's myeloma stack has a cautionary neighbour. Imbruvica, co-marketed with Pharmacyclics, an AbbVie company1, was once a leading blood-cancer drug, and its sales have fallen every year shown: $3,264 million in 2023, $3,038 million in 2024 and $2,823 million in 20252. The filing attributes the 2025 decline to competitive pressures and the impact of Medicare Part D redesign3.

Imbruvica worldwide sales ($M)3,26420233,03820242,8232025735Q2 2025599Q2 2026J&J Form 10-K FY2025; Q2 2026 financial schedules
Falling every year, and faster now.

The decline is accelerating. In the second quarter of 2026 Imbruvica sold $599 million, down 18.6%, and in the United States just $149 million, down 37.6%4. Imbruvica was also on the first list of drugs selected for Medicare price negotiation5.

The lesson for the myeloma stack is that a franchise defended by being first can be undone by better medicines in the same disease. Imbruvica lost its position without a patent expiry doing the damage.

Zytiga is the other lesson in the same segment. The prostate cancer drug fell 20.4% to $502 million in 2025 due to loss of exclusivity6, and J&J replaced it with Erleada, which grew 19.2% to $3,574 million7. That is the replacement machine working in prostate cancer. In blood cancer, Imbruvica had no J&J successor with the same mechanism; its patients moved to competitors.

The half-year figures confirm the direction. Imbruvica sold $1,259 million in the first half of 2026, down 12.9%, and $292 million in the United States, down 38.4%8. International sales were almost flat at $966 million9, which shows the damage concentrated where competitors and the payment redesign both reached first.

The early warning would come from Darzalex's growth as other companies' myeloma treatments arrive. A Darzalex quarter below 10% growth before 2029 would suggest the Imbruvica pattern is repeating.

References
  1. ReportedImbruvica, co-marketed with Pharmacyclics, an AbbVie company, was once a leading blood-cancer drug, and its sales have fallen every year shown: $3,264 million in 2023, $3,038 million in 2024 and $2,823 million in 2025.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 1 business: segments, competition, patents, the three largest products, royalties, collaboration partners and the regulatory table. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedImbruvica, co-marketed with Pharmacyclics, an AbbVie company, was once a leading blood-cancer drug, and its sales have fallen every year shown: $3,264 million in 2023, $3,038 million in 2024 and $2,823 million in 2025.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 1 business: segments, competition, patents, the three largest products, royalties, collaboration partners and the regulatory table. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe filing attributes the 2025 decline to competitive pressures and the impact of Medicare Part D redesign.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A: Innovative Medicine segment, therapeutic-area and product sales analysis. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIn the second quarter of 2026 Imbruvica sold $599 million, down 18.6%, and in the United States just $149 million, down 37.6%.
    Johnson & Johnson second-quarter 2026 supplementary sales data, statement of earnings and non-GAAP reconciliation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - Innovative Medicine and total sales by product, segment and region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 15 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedImbruvica was also on the first list of drugs selected for Medicare price negotiation.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 1A risk factors, Note 19 legal proceedings (talc, Innovative Health, Auris, Tracleer) and the Inflation Reduction Act. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe prostate cancer drug fell 20.4% to $502 million in 2025 due to loss of exclusivity, and J&J replaced it with Erleada, which grew 19.2% to $3,574 million.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A: Innovative Medicine segment, therapeutic-area and product sales analysis. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe prostate cancer drug fell 20.4% to $502 million in 2025 due to loss of exclusivity, and J&J replaced it with Erleada, which grew 19.2% to $3,574 million.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A: Innovative Medicine segment, therapeutic-area and product sales analysis. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedImbruvica sold $1,259 million in the first half of 2026, down 12.9%, and $292 million in the United States, down 38.4%.
    Johnson & Johnson second-quarter 2026 supplementary sales data, statement of earnings and non-GAAP reconciliation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - Innovative Medicine and total sales by product, segment and region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 15 July 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedInternational sales were almost flat at $966 million, which shows the damage concentrated where competitors and the payment redesign both reached first.
    Johnson & Johnson second-quarter 2026 supplementary sales data, statement of earnings and non-GAAP reconciliation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - Innovative Medicine and total sales by product, segment and region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 15 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026