⚠ Growth That Leans on PriceLow threat

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) — threat to the moat

Some of J&J's contact lens growth is price increases, which a daily-wear customer notices every time she reorders.

Part of J&J's contact lens growth came from charging more. The 2025 filing lists strategic price actions alongside market growth and new products as drivers of contact lens growth1. Contact lens sales rose 4.8% to $3,910 million2.

Vision growth by region, Q2 2026 (%)+3.6Lenses, US+8.1Lenses, international-6.0Surgical, US+10.9Surgical, internationalJ&J Q2 2026 financial schedules
The United States lagged in both halves.

Price increases in a consumer product work until they do not. A wearer paying out of pocket, or through a vision plan with a fixed allowance, notices a higher price at each resupply.

The United States numbers in the latest quarter are softer than the total. Contact lenses grew 3.6% at home against 8.1% internationally, and United States surgical vision products fell 6.0%3.

Currency flatters the international number a little. International vision grew 9.1% reported and 8.5% operationally in the second quarter of 20264, so most of the growth abroad is real. The softness is concentrated in the United States.

The 2025 figures show the price actions working so far. Contact lenses and other grew 4.8% to $3,910 million5, and in the second quarter of 2026 by 6.1% to $1,025 million6. A brand that can raise prices and still grow has a moat; the test is whether volume holds once the increases compound.

Vision is a small part of the whole. It was about 16% of MedTech sales in 202578, so pricing that disappoints here would cost J&J little; the test matters more as a sign of how much any consumer-facing J&J brand can still charge.

Watch United States contact lens growth. Falling below 3% would suggest the price actions are costing wearers, and the brand's hold is weaker than the reported growth implies.

References
  1. ReportedThe 2025 filing lists strategic price actions alongside market growth and new products as drivers of contact lens growth.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A: MedTech segment and franchise sales analysis. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedContact lens sales rose 4.8% to $3,910 million.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A: MedTech segment and franchise sales analysis. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedContact lenses grew 3.6% at home against 8.1% internationally, and United States surgical vision products fell 6.0%.
    Johnson & Johnson second-quarter 2026 supplementary sales data, statement of earnings and non-GAAP reconciliation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - MedTech segment and franchise sales by region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 15 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedInternational vision grew 9.1% reported and 8.5% operationally in the second quarter of 2026, so most of the growth abroad is real.
    Johnson & Johnson second-quarter 2026 supplementary sales data, statement of earnings and non-GAAP reconciliation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - MedTech segment and franchise sales by region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 15 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedContact lenses and other grew 4.8% to $3,910 million, and in the second quarter of 2026 by 6.1% to $1,025 million.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A: MedTech segment and franchise sales analysis. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedContact lenses and other grew 4.8% to $3,910 million, and in the second quarter of 2026 by 6.1% to $1,025 million.
    Johnson & Johnson second-quarter 2026 supplementary sales data, statement of earnings and non-GAAP reconciliation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - MedTech segment and franchise sales by region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 15 July 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedIt was about 16% of MedTech sales in 2025, so pricing that disappoints here would cost J&J little; the test matters more as a sign of how much any consumer-facing J&J brand can still charge.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A: MedTech segment and franchise sales analysis. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  8. Moat Explorer calcIt was about 16% of MedTech sales in 2025, so pricing that disappoints here would cost J&J little; the test matters more as a sign of how much any consumer-facing J&J brand can still charge.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Johnson & Johnson's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Darzalex royalty: 2,400 / 14,351 = 16.7%. Stelara 2023-2025: 10,858 - 6,078 = 4,780 lost; Tremfya 5,155 - 3,147 = 2,008 gained, 2,008 / 4,780 = 42%. Growth 2023-2025: Darzalex 14,351 - 9,744 = 4,607; Carvykti 1,887 - 500 = 1,387; Erleada 3,574 - 2,387 = 1,187; Spravato 1,696 - 689 = 1,007; five products 4,607 + 2,008 + 1,387 + 1,187 + 1,007 = 10,196. Myeloma medicines Q2 2026: 4,207 + 657 + 260 + 174 = 5,298; 5,298 / 25,310 = 20.9%. Simponi and Opsumit 2025: 2,668 + 2,325 = 4,993. Abiomed: 3,700 / 1,751 = 2.1 times; 1,751 x 1.171^5 = 3,850 by 2030. Shockwave: 12,600 / 1,146 = 11.0 times. Caplyta: 361 x 4 = 1,444 a year; 14,500 / 1,444 = 10.0 times. Acquisitions: 15,146 + 17,541 = 32,687. Goodwill and intangibles: 48,772 + 50,403 = 99,175; 99,175 / 199,210 = 49.8%. Free cash flow 2025: 24,530 - 4,832 = 19,698. Cash uses 2025: 12,381 + 5,953 + 17,541 = 35,875. Capex 4,832 / 94,193 = 5.1%. Surgery: 10,137 / 10,037 - 1 = 1.0%. Electrophysiology: 5,634 / 33,792 = 16.7%. MedTech share of sales: 33,792 / 94,193 = 35.9%; Innovative Medicine 60,401 / 94,193 = 64.1%. Segment income 2025: 22,266 + 4,113 = 26,379; Innovative Medicine 22,266 / 26,379 = 84.4%; MedTech 4,113 / 26,379 = 15.6%. Gross margin 63,937 / 94,193 = 67.9%. MedTech rebates: 6,446 / 33,792 = 19.1%; 5,955 / 31,857 = 18.7%. Return on identifiable assets: Innovative Medicine 22,266 / 78,057 = 28.5%; MedTech 4,113 / 86,482 = 4.8%. Cost of products sold / segment sales 2025: Innovative Medicine 15,646 / 60,401 = 25.9%; MedTech 14,549 / 33,792 = 43.1%. Q2 2026 segment margins: Innovative Medicine 6,249 / 16,384 = 38.1%; MedTech 1,177 / 8,926 = 13.2%. Growth 2023-2025: sales 94,193 / 85,159 - 1 = 10.6%; operating cash flow 24,530 / 22,791 - 1 = 7.6%; dividends 12,381 / 11,770 - 1 = 5.2%. Dividends per share 5.14 / 2.95 - 1 = 74%. Payout 2025: 12,381 / 26,804 = 46%; 12,381 / 26,215 = 47%; 12,381 / 19,698 = 63%. Diluted shares 2,429.4 / 2,812.9 - 1 = -13.6%; Kenvue exchange 190.96 / 2,674.0 = 7.1%. Firefly and Sail initial payments: 1,000 + 785 = 1,785. Consumer sales 2015-2022: (14,953 / 13,507)^(1/7) - 1 = 1.5% a year. Wholesalers: 21.8 + 15.5 + 11.1 = 48.4 (2025); 20.5 + 15.6 + 12.3 = 48.4 (2024); 18.2 + 15.1 + 14.2 = 47.5 (2023); largest 21.8 - 18.2 = 3.6 points. Innovative Medicine rebates: 56,819 / 60,401 = 94.1% (2025); 47,523 / 54,759 = 86.8% (2023); 56,819 / 47,523 - 1 = 19.6%; net sales 60,401 / 54,759 - 1 = 10.3%. Top three products: 15.0 + 6.5 + 5.5 = 27.0% of revenue. United States share: 53,752 / 94,193 = 57.1% (2025); 14,533 / 25,310 = 57.4% (Q2 2026). MedTech excluding orthopaedics: (33,792 - 9,258) / (31,857 - 9,158) - 1 = 8.1%. Talc: 5,500 / 76,000 claims = about $72,000 per claim; 5.5 - 3.7 = 1.8 billion. Valuation: 348.19 / 24.242 = 14.4 times (end-2024 market value over 2024 adjusted net earnings); 652.05 / 348.19 - 1 = 87%; 270.57 / 11.04 = 24.5 times; 11.04 / 10.79 - 1 = 2.3%; 277.91 / 270.57 - 1 = 2.7%. Innovative Medicine history: (60,401 / 31,430)^(1/10) - 1 = 6.8% a year; Pharmaceutical pre-tax margins 11,734 / 31,430 = 37.3% (2015), 12,827 / 33,464 = 38.3% (2016), 8,816 / 42,198 = 20.9% (2019); restated growth 52,563 / 51,680 - 1 = 1.7% (2022), 54,759 / 52,563 - 1 = 4.2% (2023), 56,964 / 54,759 - 1 = 4.0% (2024). Additional: 2015 mix 31,430 / 70,074 = 45%; dividend 5.36 / 11.04 = 49%; buybacks 4,253 / 5,953 = 71%; vision 5,468 / 33,792 = 16%; Innovative Medicine international 60,401 - 36,344 = 24,057 against 54,759 - 31,169 = 23,590 (2.0%); United States 36,344 / 31,169 - 1 = 16.6%; myeloma four-product growth 2023-2025 4,607 + 1,387 + (670 - 395) + (463 - 63) = 6,669 of oncology growth 25,380 - 17,661 = 7,719, 86%; Darzalex international 1,772 / 4,207 = 42%; equity gap 99,175 - 81,544 = 17,631; Abiomed 440 x 4 = 1,760; amortisation MedTech 0.5 / 1.3 = 38%; MedTech H1 2026 segment income 2,416 / 2,625 - 1 = -8.0%, SM&A 5,975 / 5,518 - 1 = 8.3%, R&D 1,492 / 1,324 - 1 = 12.7%, cost of products sold 7,438 / 6,964 - 1 = 6.8%, margins 2,416 / 17,562 = 13.8% and 2,625 / 16,561 = 15.9%; Innovative Medicine H1 2026 11,566 / 10,762 - 1 = 7.5%, 11,566 / 31,810 = 36.4%; dividends / operating cash flow 12,381 / 24,530 = 50%; receivables 17,178 - 14,842 = 2,336, inventories 14,191 - 12,444 = 1,747; Q2 2026 dividend 3,227 x 4 = 12,908, one cent x 4 x 2,408M shares = $96M; diluted shares 2,663.9 / 2,812.9 - 1 = -5.3%; MedTech United States 17,408 / 33,792 = 52%; international sales 94,193 - 53,752 = 40,441; oncology share of Innovative Medicine 25,380 / 60,401 = 42.0%; Darzalex sales increase 14,351 - 11,670 = 2,681, royalty increase 2,400 - 2,000 = 400, 400 / 2,681 = 15%; newer myeloma medicines Q2 2026 657 + 260 + 174 = 1,091, 1,091 / 4,207 = 26%; Shockwave international 67 / 335 = 20%; amortisation 2,492 x 2 = 4,984 a year, 4,984 / 26,215 = 19%; US long-lived assets 89,392 - 70,670 = 18,722; surgery international Q2 2026 1,559 / 2,653 = 59%; net interest 1,056 - 971 = 85; dividends per share 5.14 / 4.70 - 1 = 9.4%; MedTech rebates 6,446 / 5,955 - 1 = 8.2%; trailing sales 94,193 - 45,636 + 49,372 = 97,929; net earnings 26,804 - 16,536 + 10,769 = 21,037. MedTech history: (33,792 / 25,137)^(1/10) - 1 = 3.0% a year; Medical Devices 6,826 / 25,137 = 27.2% (2015), 5,392 / 26,592 = 20.3% (2017); restated 4,208 / 27,060 = 15.6% (2021), 4,447 / 27,427 = 16.2% (2022); growth 27,427 / 27,060 - 1 = 1.4% (2022), 30,400 / 27,427 - 1 = 10.8% (2023), 31,857 / 30,400 - 1 = 4.8% (2024) - segment margins, rebates, concentration and geography. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in J&J's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026