Tremfya Takes Stelara's PlaceWide moat

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) — moat facet

By mid-2026 Tremfya sold nearly three times as much as Stelara, the drug it was built to replace.

Stelara was the product that paid for a decade of J&J's immunology business, and its successor is already bigger than it. Tremfya sold $2,046 million in the second quarter of 2026, up 72.5%, while Stelara sold $740 million, down 55.2%1. In the United States the change is starker: Tremfya $1,465 million, up 84.2%, and Stelara $336 million, down 68.8%2.

Stelara and Tremfya, second quarter ($M)1,653Stelara Q2 2025740Stelara Q2 20261,186Tremfya Q2 20252,046Tremfya Q2 2026J&J Q2 2026 financial schedules
The successor now sells nearly three times as much.

The handover is the replacement machine working in real time. Both drugs work on the interleukin-23 pathway, and J&J spent years building Tremfya's label so that it would be ready when Stelara's patents lapsed. The 2025 filing list shows Tremfya approvals or filings in ulcerative colitis, Crohn's disease, subcutaneous induction for both, pediatric psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis structural damage3. In the second quarter of 2026 the FDA approved the label expansion for inhibiting structural joint damage in psoriatic arthritis4. Each indication is a place a Stelara patient can be moved without leaving J&J.

The numbers for the full year show how much this covered. Tremfya rose from $3,147 million in 2023 to $5,155 million in 20255, and Stelara fell from $10,858 million to $6,078 million6. Tremfya's $2,008 million of growth replaced about 42% of Stelara's $4,780 million loss over those two years7. The rest came from oncology.

The replacement is not free of cost. Stelara's decline brought unfavourable product mix into cost of products sold in 20258, and total immunology still fell 11.8%9. A successor that is growing fast from a smaller base does not immediately earn what the old product earned.

The geography of the switch is telling. In the United States, where biosimilars arrived first, Tremfya grew 84.2% and Stelara fell 68.8% in the second quarter of 2026; internationally Tremfya grew 48.7% and Stelara fell 29.7%10. The handover is furthest along where the pressure is greatest, which suggests it will continue abroad as copies spread. Over the first half of 2026 Tremfya sold $3,654 million against Stelara's $1,396 million11.

The filing is plain about where the growth came from: Tremfya's 2025 increase was due to share gains and market growth12. Share gains in a market where Stelara was losing patients to copies are exactly what a successor strategy is meant to produce, and the Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis approvals of 202513 widened the market it could take share in.

Here the machine worked, and quickly. The test is whether total immunology returns to growth: it fell 3.7% in the second quarter of 202614, and a quarter of growth would mark the point at which Tremfya has fully absorbed the loss.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Tremfya grew 72.5% in the latest quarter while immunology's decline narrowed to 3.7%.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Tremfya sales, latest quarter
$2,046M, +72.5% (Stelara $740M, -55.2%)

The successor against the drug it replaces; total immunology returning to growth would complete the handover.

Source: Johnson & Johnson Q2 2026 financial schedules ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
A 2031 Patent and a Five Percent Royalty
Tremfya is protected in the United States until 2031, so the replacement has about five years before it needs a replacement of its own.
References
  1. ReportedTremfya sold $2,046 million in the second quarter of 2026, up 72.5%, while Stelara sold $740 million, down 55.2%.
    Johnson & Johnson second-quarter 2026 supplementary sales data, statement of earnings and non-GAAP reconciliation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - Innovative Medicine and total sales by product, segment and region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 15 July 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIn the United States the change is starker: Tremfya $1,465 million, up 84.2%, and Stelara $336 million, down 68.8%.
    Johnson & Johnson second-quarter 2026 supplementary sales data, statement of earnings and non-GAAP reconciliation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - Innovative Medicine and total sales by product, segment and region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 15 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe 2025 filing list shows Tremfya approvals or filings in ulcerative colitis, Crohn's disease, subcutaneous induction for both, pediatric psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis structural damage.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A: Innovative Medicine segment, therapeutic-area and product sales analysis. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIn the second quarter of 2026 the FDA approved the label expansion for inhibiting structural joint damage in psoriatic arthritis.
    Johnson & Johnson second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q2 2026 · publ. 15 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedTremfya rose from $3,147 million in 2023 to $5,155 million in 2025, and Stelara fell from $10,858 million to $6,078 million.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A: Innovative Medicine segment, therapeutic-area and product sales analysis. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedTremfya rose from $3,147 million in 2023 to $5,155 million in 2025, and Stelara fell from $10,858 million to $6,078 million.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A: Innovative Medicine segment, therapeutic-area and product sales analysis. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  7. Moat Explorer calcTremfya's $2,008 million of growth replaced about 42% of Stelara's $4,780 million loss over those two years.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Johnson & Johnson's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Darzalex royalty: 2,400 / 14,351 = 16.7%. Stelara 2023-2025: 10,858 - 6,078 = 4,780 lost; Tremfya 5,155 - 3,147 = 2,008 gained, 2,008 / 4,780 = 42%. Growth 2023-2025: Darzalex 14,351 - 9,744 = 4,607; Carvykti 1,887 - 500 = 1,387; Erleada 3,574 - 2,387 = 1,187; Spravato 1,696 - 689 = 1,007; five products 4,607 + 2,008 + 1,387 + 1,187 + 1,007 = 10,196. Myeloma medicines Q2 2026: 4,207 + 657 + 260 + 174 = 5,298; 5,298 / 25,310 = 20.9%. Simponi and Opsumit 2025: 2,668 + 2,325 = 4,993. Abiomed: 3,700 / 1,751 = 2.1 times; 1,751 x 1.171^5 = 3,850 by 2030. Shockwave: 12,600 / 1,146 = 11.0 times. Caplyta: 361 x 4 = 1,444 a year; 14,500 / 1,444 = 10.0 times. Acquisitions: 15,146 + 17,541 = 32,687. Goodwill and intangibles: 48,772 + 50,403 = 99,175; 99,175 / 199,210 = 49.8%. Free cash flow 2025: 24,530 - 4,832 = 19,698. Cash uses 2025: 12,381 + 5,953 + 17,541 = 35,875. Capex 4,832 / 94,193 = 5.1%. Surgery: 10,137 / 10,037 - 1 = 1.0%. Electrophysiology: 5,634 / 33,792 = 16.7%. MedTech share of sales: 33,792 / 94,193 = 35.9%; Innovative Medicine 60,401 / 94,193 = 64.1%. Segment income 2025: 22,266 + 4,113 = 26,379; Innovative Medicine 22,266 / 26,379 = 84.4%; MedTech 4,113 / 26,379 = 15.6%. Gross margin 63,937 / 94,193 = 67.9%. MedTech rebates: 6,446 / 33,792 = 19.1%; 5,955 / 31,857 = 18.7%. Return on identifiable assets: Innovative Medicine 22,266 / 78,057 = 28.5%; MedTech 4,113 / 86,482 = 4.8%. Cost of products sold / segment sales 2025: Innovative Medicine 15,646 / 60,401 = 25.9%; MedTech 14,549 / 33,792 = 43.1%. Q2 2026 segment margins: Innovative Medicine 6,249 / 16,384 = 38.1%; MedTech 1,177 / 8,926 = 13.2%. Growth 2023-2025: sales 94,193 / 85,159 - 1 = 10.6%; operating cash flow 24,530 / 22,791 - 1 = 7.6%; dividends 12,381 / 11,770 - 1 = 5.2%. Dividends per share 5.14 / 2.95 - 1 = 74%. Payout 2025: 12,381 / 26,804 = 46%; 12,381 / 26,215 = 47%; 12,381 / 19,698 = 63%. Diluted shares 2,429.4 / 2,812.9 - 1 = -13.6%; Kenvue exchange 190.96 / 2,674.0 = 7.1%. Firefly and Sail initial payments: 1,000 + 785 = 1,785. Consumer sales 2015-2022: (14,953 / 13,507)^(1/7) - 1 = 1.5% a year. Wholesalers: 21.8 + 15.5 + 11.1 = 48.4 (2025); 20.5 + 15.6 + 12.3 = 48.4 (2024); 18.2 + 15.1 + 14.2 = 47.5 (2023); largest 21.8 - 18.2 = 3.6 points. Innovative Medicine rebates: 56,819 / 60,401 = 94.1% (2025); 47,523 / 54,759 = 86.8% (2023); 56,819 / 47,523 - 1 = 19.6%; net sales 60,401 / 54,759 - 1 = 10.3%. Top three products: 15.0 + 6.5 + 5.5 = 27.0% of revenue. United States share: 53,752 / 94,193 = 57.1% (2025); 14,533 / 25,310 = 57.4% (Q2 2026). MedTech excluding orthopaedics: (33,792 - 9,258) / (31,857 - 9,158) - 1 = 8.1%. Talc: 5,500 / 76,000 claims = about $72,000 per claim; 5.5 - 3.7 = 1.8 billion. Valuation: 348.19 / 24.242 = 14.4 times (end-2024 market value over 2024 adjusted net earnings); 652.05 / 348.19 - 1 = 87%; 270.57 / 11.04 = 24.5 times; 11.04 / 10.79 - 1 = 2.3%; 277.91 / 270.57 - 1 = 2.7%. Innovative Medicine history: (60,401 / 31,430)^(1/10) - 1 = 6.8% a year; Pharmaceutical pre-tax margins 11,734 / 31,430 = 37.3% (2015), 12,827 / 33,464 = 38.3% (2016), 8,816 / 42,198 = 20.9% (2019); restated growth 52,563 / 51,680 - 1 = 1.7% (2022), 54,759 / 52,563 - 1 = 4.2% (2023), 56,964 / 54,759 - 1 = 4.0% (2024). Additional: 2015 mix 31,430 / 70,074 = 45%; dividend 5.36 / 11.04 = 49%; buybacks 4,253 / 5,953 = 71%; vision 5,468 / 33,792 = 16%; Innovative Medicine international 60,401 - 36,344 = 24,057 against 54,759 - 31,169 = 23,590 (2.0%); United States 36,344 / 31,169 - 1 = 16.6%; myeloma four-product growth 2023-2025 4,607 + 1,387 + (670 - 395) + (463 - 63) = 6,669 of oncology growth 25,380 - 17,661 = 7,719, 86%; Darzalex international 1,772 / 4,207 = 42%; equity gap 99,175 - 81,544 = 17,631; Abiomed 440 x 4 = 1,760; amortisation MedTech 0.5 / 1.3 = 38%; MedTech H1 2026 segment income 2,416 / 2,625 - 1 = -8.0%, SM&A 5,975 / 5,518 - 1 = 8.3%, R&D 1,492 / 1,324 - 1 = 12.7%, cost of products sold 7,438 / 6,964 - 1 = 6.8%, margins 2,416 / 17,562 = 13.8% and 2,625 / 16,561 = 15.9%; Innovative Medicine H1 2026 11,566 / 10,762 - 1 = 7.5%, 11,566 / 31,810 = 36.4%; dividends / operating cash flow 12,381 / 24,530 = 50%; receivables 17,178 - 14,842 = 2,336, inventories 14,191 - 12,444 = 1,747; Q2 2026 dividend 3,227 x 4 = 12,908, one cent x 4 x 2,408M shares = $96M; diluted shares 2,663.9 / 2,812.9 - 1 = -5.3%; MedTech United States 17,408 / 33,792 = 52%; international sales 94,193 - 53,752 = 40,441; oncology share of Innovative Medicine 25,380 / 60,401 = 42.0%; Darzalex sales increase 14,351 - 11,670 = 2,681, royalty increase 2,400 - 2,000 = 400, 400 / 2,681 = 15%; newer myeloma medicines Q2 2026 657 + 260 + 174 = 1,091, 1,091 / 4,207 = 26%; Shockwave international 67 / 335 = 20%; amortisation 2,492 x 2 = 4,984 a year, 4,984 / 26,215 = 19%; US long-lived assets 89,392 - 70,670 = 18,722; surgery international Q2 2026 1,559 / 2,653 = 59%; net interest 1,056 - 971 = 85; dividends per share 5.14 / 4.70 - 1 = 9.4%; MedTech rebates 6,446 / 5,955 - 1 = 8.2%; trailing sales 94,193 - 45,636 + 49,372 = 97,929; net earnings 26,804 - 16,536 + 10,769 = 21,037. MedTech history: (33,792 / 25,137)^(1/10) - 1 = 3.0% a year; Medical Devices 6,826 / 25,137 = 27.2% (2015), 5,392 / 26,592 = 20.3% (2017); restated 4,208 / 27,060 = 15.6% (2021), 4,447 / 27,427 = 16.2% (2022); growth 27,427 / 27,060 - 1 = 1.4% (2022), 30,400 / 27,427 - 1 = 10.8% (2023), 31,857 / 30,400 - 1 = 4.8% (2024) - product and franchise growth. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in J&J's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  8. ReportedStelara's decline brought unfavourable product mix into cost of products sold in 2025, and total immunology still fell 11.8%.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A: rebate accrual tables, research and development, cost of products sold, debt and liquidity. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedStelara's decline brought unfavourable product mix into cost of products sold in 2025, and total immunology still fell 11.8%.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A: rebate accrual tables, research and development, cost of products sold, debt and liquidity. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedIn the United States, where biosimilars arrived first, Tremfya grew 84.2% and Stelara fell 68.8% in the second quarter of 2026; internationally Tremfya grew 48.7% and Stelara fell 29.7%.
    Johnson & Johnson second-quarter 2026 supplementary sales data, statement of earnings and non-GAAP reconciliation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - Innovative Medicine and total sales by product, segment and region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 15 July 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedOver the first half of 2026 Tremfya sold $3,654 million against Stelara's $1,396 million.
    Johnson & Johnson second-quarter 2026 supplementary sales data, statement of earnings and non-GAAP reconciliation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - Innovative Medicine and total sales by product, segment and region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 15 July 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedThe filing is plain about where the growth came from: Tremfya's 2025 increase was due to share gains and market growth.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A: Innovative Medicine segment, therapeutic-area and product sales analysis. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedShare gains in a market where Stelara was losing patients to copies are exactly what a successor strategy is meant to produce, and the Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis approvals of 2025 widened the market it could take share in.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A: Innovative Medicine segment, therapeutic-area and product sales analysis. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  14. ReportedThe test is whether total immunology returns to growth: it fell 3.7% in the second quarter of 2026, and a quarter of growth would mark the point at which Tremfya has fully absorbed the loss.
    Johnson & Johnson second-quarter 2026 supplementary sales data, statement of earnings and non-GAAP reconciliation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - Innovative Medicine and total sales by product, segment and region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 15 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026