⚠ Storms, Seasons and the Spring QuarterLow threat

Home Depot (HD) — threat to the moat

Home Depot earns most in the spring quarter and sells more after storms, and its roofing distributor is even more exposed to both.

Home Depot's sales follow the weather. The 10-K says its highest volume of sales occurs in the second fiscal quarter, as it moves into spring1, and that sustained periods without storms can lead, and in the past have led, to lower sales compared to prior periods2.

Comparable sales by quarter (%)1.0%Q2 FY20250.2%Q3 FY20250.4%Q4 FY20250.6%Q1 FY20261.7%Q2 FY2026Home Depot results releases, Q2 fiscal 2025 to Q2 fiscal 2026
Five quarters between 0.2% and 1.7%.

Fiscal 2025 showed both sides. Coverage of the results noted reduced storm-related demand earlier in the year3, and SRS's roofing business faced a year in which industry shingle shipments in the fourth quarter fell 28% from a year earlier4. Roofing was about 53% of Other segment sales in fiscal 20255.

The store network absorbs weather better than a single-category seller, because a wet spring hurts garden sales while a storm helps lumber and generators. But the acquired distributors are concentrated in exactly the categories storms drive.

The company's own numbers show how much the spring matters. Second-quarter net sales were $47,861 million in fiscal 2026 against $41.8 billion in the first quarter67, and the Other segment earned $247 million in the spring quarter against $16 million in the winter one89. A poor spring cannot be made up in the autumn.

The measure here is second-quarter comparable sales, the spring quarter: 1.0% in fiscal 2025 and 1.7% in fiscal 20261011. A negative spring quarter in a year without a housing shock would say weather, not the economy, is setting the pace.

References
  1. ReportedThe 10-K says its highest volume of sales occurs in the second fiscal quarter, as it moves into spring, and that sustained periods without storms can lead, and in the past have led, to lower sales compared to prior periods.
    The Home Depot Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (the 52 weeks ended 1 February 2026) - Item 1A risk factors and Item 7A market risk: housing, interest rates, commodities and shrink. — Fiscal 2025 · publ. 18 March 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe 10-K says its highest volume of sales occurs in the second fiscal quarter, as it moves into spring, and that sustained periods without storms can lead, and in the past have led, to lower sales compared to prior periods.
    The Home Depot Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (the 52 weeks ended 1 February 2026) - Item 1A risk factors and Item 7A market risk: housing, interest rates, commodities and shrink. — Fiscal 2025 · publ. 18 March 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedCoverage of the results noted reduced storm-related demand earlier in the year, and SRS's roofing business faced a year in which industry shingle shipments in the fourth quarter fell 28% from a year earlier.
    PYMNTS on Home Depot's fiscal 2025 results: the Pro business nears half of revenue. — Fiscal 2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedCoverage of the results noted reduced storm-related demand earlier in the year, and SRS's roofing business faced a year in which industry shingle shipments in the fourth quarter fell 28% from a year earlier.
    CNBC on Home Depot's fourth quarter of fiscal 2025: shingle shipments down 28%, repair rather than replace, tariffs, and no single foreign country above 10% of purchases. — Q4 fiscal 2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedRoofing was about 53% of Other segment sales in fiscal 2025.
    The Home Depot Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (the 52 weeks ended 1 February 2026) - Item 7 MD&A: segments, comparable sales, transactions, product lines, margins and ROIC. — Fiscal 2025 · publ. 18 March 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedSecond-quarter net sales were $47,861 million in fiscal 2026 against $41.8 billion in the first quarter, and the Other segment earned $247 million in the spring quarter against $16 million in the winter one.
    The Home Depot second-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - sales, comparable sales, transactions, ticket, earnings, reaffirmed guidance and the balance sheet. — Q2 fiscal 2026 · publ. 18 August 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedSecond-quarter net sales were $47,861 million in fiscal 2026 against $41.8 billion in the first quarter, and the Other segment earned $247 million in the spring quarter against $16 million in the winter one.
    The Home Depot first-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q1 fiscal 2026 · publ. 19 May 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedSecond-quarter net sales were $47,861 million in fiscal 2026 against $41.8 billion in the first quarter, and the Other segment earned $247 million in the spring quarter against $16 million in the winter one.
    The Home Depot Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2 August 2026 - segment results, product lines, online sales, IEEPA tariff refunds, the Mingledorff's acquisition and trailing ROIC of 24.8%. — Q2 fiscal 2026 · publ. 25 August 2026 · source ↗
  9. Moat Explorer calcSecond-quarter net sales were $47,861 million in fiscal 2026 against $41.8 billion in the first quarter, and the Other segment earned $247 million in the spring quarter against $16 million in the winter one.
    Moat Explorer calculation from The Home Depot's filings and market data ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years as Home Depot names them, fiscal 2025 = year to 1 February 2026). Segments: Primary net sales 151,966 / 152,669 - 1 = -0.5% (fiscal 2023 to 2025); Primary operating income 20,574 / 21,689 - 1 = -5.1%; Primary operating margin 21,689 / 152,669 = 14.2% (fiscal 2023), 21,313 / 153,108 = 13.9% (fiscal 2024), 20,574 / 151,966 = 13.5% (fiscal 2025); Other operating margin 213 / 6,406 = 3.3% (fiscal 2024), 316 / 12,717 = 2.5% (fiscal 2025); Other before intangible amortisation 316 + 398 = 714, 714 / 12,717 = 5.6%; Other share of net sales 12,717 / 164,683 = 7.7%; Other share of operating income 316 / 20,890 = 1.5%. Q2 fiscal 2026: Primary 42,806 / 42,157 - 1 = +1.5%, margin 6,592 / 42,806 = 15.4%; Other 5,055 / 3,120 - 1 = +62%, margin 247 / 5,055 = 4.9%; Q2 fiscal 2025 margins: Primary 6,354 / 42,157 = 15.1%, Other 201 / 3,120 = 6.4%; Q1 fiscal 2026 Primary 80,569 - 42,806 = 37,763 and 11,557 - 6,592 = 4,965, margin 13.1%; Other 9,057 - 5,055 = 4,002 and 263 - 247 = 16, margin 0.4%. Pro acquisitions 8,692 + 18,028 + 5,081 + about 1,100 = about 32,900 (HD Supply, SRS, GMS, Mingledorff's). Growth: net sales 164,683 - 159,514 = 5,169 in fiscal 2025 against about 6,300 contributed by acquisitions; fiscal 2025 over fiscal 2023 164,683 - 152,669 = 12,014, of which Other 12,717. Net sales fiscal 2017 to fiscal 2025 164,683 / 100,904 - 1 = +63%; stores 2,359 - 2,284 = 75, 75 / 2,284 = +3.3%. Traffic: transactions 1,601.5 / 1,500.8 - 1 = +6.7% (fiscal 2015 to 2025); 1,601.5 / 1,759.7 - 1 = -9.0% (fiscal 2021 to 2025); average ticket 90.56 / 58.77 - 1 = +54%. Net sales per store 164,683 / 2,359 is not meaningful because Other has no stores; Primary 151,966 / 2,359 = 64.4 per store. Margins: operating margin 21,689 / 152,669 = 14.2%, 21,526 / 159,514 = 13.5%, 20,890 / 164,683 = 12.7%; SG&A 30,702 / 28,748 - 1 = +6.8% against net sales +3.2%; Primary SG&A 28,885 / 27,822 - 1 = +3.8% against Primary net sales 151,966 / 153,108 - 1 = -0.7%; interest expense 2,412 / 1,943 - 1 = +24%; operating income / interest 20,890 / 2,412 = 8.7 times. Departments: Lighting 4,006 / 4,549 - 1 = -11.9%; Flooring 8,232 / 8,703 - 1 = -5.4%; Storage and Organization 5,054 / 4,881 - 1 = +3.5%; Appliances 13,987 / 164,683 = 8.5%. Classes fiscal 2025: 52,439 + 51,679 + 47,848 = 151,966 = Primary net sales. Net margin 14,156 / 164,683 = 8.6%; Lowe's 6.63 / 90.43 = 7.3%; Lowe's price to sales 106.20 / 90.43 = 1.17 against 1.73; Primary share 151,966 / 164,683 = 92.3%; cost of sales 164,683 - 54,865 = 109,818. Primary share Q2 fiscal 2026 42,806 / 47,861 = 89.4%; H1 net sales increase 89.6 - 85.1 = 4.5bn, GMS 2.8 / 4.5 = 62%; average ticket 89.31 / 90.36 - 1 = -1.2%; equity build 14,156 - 9,152 = 5,004; buyback authorization 11.66 / 292.52 = 4.0% of market value; depreciation and amortisation as a share of sales, Other 715 / 12,717 = 5.6%, Primary 3,344 / 151,966 = 2.2%. US share 152,170 / 164,683 = 92.4%. Mexico stores 2,359 - 2,035 - 182 = 142. Other share of net sales 6,406 / 159,514 = 4.0% (fiscal 2024), 5,055 / 47,861 = 10.6% (Q2 fiscal 2026). Sales per retail square foot 627.17 / 454.82 - 1 = +38% (fiscal 2019 to 2022), 599.92 / 627.17 - 1 = -4.3% (fiscal 2022 to 2024). Tariff refunds 685 / 47,861 = 1.4% of Q2 net sales; 685 / 16,115 = 4.3% of Q2 gross profit; refunds in inventory cost 730 - 685 = about 45. Receivables 5,597 / 4,903 - 1 = +14.2%. Capital: net debt 4,464 + 4,967 + 46,341 - 1,389 = 54,383 (1 February 2026); 316 + 4,582 + 48,485 - 1,659 = 51,724 (2 February 2025); 4,248 + 4,697 + 43,951 - 2,085 = 50,811 (2 August 2026); net debt / equity 54,383 / 12,813 = 4.2 times; goodwill and intangibles 22,344 + 10,329 = 32,673, 32,673 / 105,095 = 31.1% of total assets. Free cash flow 16,325 - 3,679 = 12,646 (fiscal 2025), 19,810 - 3,485 = 16,325 (fiscal 2024), 21,172 - 3,226 = 17,946 (fiscal 2023); dividends paid / free cash flow 9,152 / 12,646 = 72.4%; dividend per share / diluted EPS 9.20 / 14.23 = 64.7%; capex / net sales 3,679 / 164,683 = 2.2%. Average debt and equity 61,914 / 44,955 - 1 = +38%; SRS + GMS 18,028 + 5,081 = 23,109; interest expense 2,412 - 1,943 = 469; operating cash flow / dividends paid 16,325 / 9,152 = 1.8 times; free cash flow 12,646 / 17,946 - 1 = -30%; dividend per share 9.00 / 8.36 - 1 = +7.7%, 9.20 / 9.00 - 1 = +2.2%, 2.33 / 2.30 - 1 = +1.3%. Repurchases fiscal 2015-2023: 7,000 + 7,000 + 8,002 + 10,000 + 7,000 + 597 + 15,001 + 6,504 + 8,074 = 69,178; diluted shares 995 / 1,283 - 1 = -22%. H1 fiscal 2026 EPS 8.09 / 14.23 = 57%. Market: 292.52 / 14.26 = 20.5 times trailing earnings; 292.52 / 169.18 = 1.73 times sales; 292.52 / 433.37 - 1 = -32.5% from the end-2021 value; Lowe's 106.20 / 292.52 = 36%, 90.43 / 169.18 = 53% of revenue; dividend yield 9.32 / 293.20 = 3.2%; trailing diluted EPS 14.23 + 8.09 - (3.45 + 4.58) = 14.29; trailing net income 292.52 / 20.52 = about 14.26bn - segments, sales, traffic and margins. — Fiscal 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in The Home Depot's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  10. ReportedThe measure here is second-quarter comparable sales, the spring quarter: 1.0% in fiscal 2025 and 1.7% in fiscal 2026.
    The Home Depot second-quarter fiscal 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - comparable sales of 1.0%. — Q2 fiscal 2025 · publ. 19 August 2025 · source ↗
  11. ReportedThe measure here is second-quarter comparable sales, the spring quarter: 1.0% in fiscal 2025 and 1.7% in fiscal 2026.
    The Home Depot second-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - sales, comparable sales, transactions, ticket, earnings, reaffirmed guidance and the balance sheet. — Q2 fiscal 2026 · publ. 18 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 26, 2026