⚠ Buybacks That Hess UndidModerate threat

Chevron (CVX) — threat to the moat

Chevron spent $12 billion on buybacks in 2025 and still ended the year with 225 million more shares, because it paid for Hess in stock.

Chevron bought back $12,079 million of its shares in 20251, and ended the year with more of them. Shares outstanding went from 1,755 million at the end of 2024 to 1,980 million at the end of 20252, about 13 percent more3, because Chevron issued 301.25 million shares to buy Hess4.

Shares outstanding (millions)1,755Dec 20241,980Dec 20251,962Jun 2026Chevron FY2025 and Q2 2026 earnings releases
Up 13% in a year of buybacks.

That is the arithmetic of paying for an acquisition in stock while buying stock back. The two cancel, and the owner of a Chevron share at the end of 2025 owned a smaller slice of a larger company.

It matters because Chevron's plan measures success per share. The investor day targets earnings per share and adjusted free cash flow growing more than 10 percent a year at $70 Brent5, and every share issued for a deal raises the bar.

Stockanalysis records the change directly: shares outstanding up 12.01 percent year on year6. Diluted shares averaged 1,817 million in 2024 and 1,856 million in 20257, the first rise in the average since 2022.

The count to follow is shares outstanding, 1,962 million at the end of June 20268. Getting back below the pre-Hess 1,755 million would take years at the planned pace; a count that stops falling in a weak year would mean the buyback has been cut to protect the dividend.

References
  1. ReportedChevron bought back $12,079 million of its shares in 2025, and ended the year with more of them.
    SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts for Chevron (CIK 93410) - operating cash flow, share repurchases and dividends paid, 2015-2025. — 2015-2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedShares outstanding went from 1,755 million at the end of 2024 to 1,980 million at the end of 2025, about 13 percent more, because Chevron issued 301.25 million shares to buy Hess.
    Chevron fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — FY2025 · publ. 30 January 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcShares outstanding went from 1,755 million at the end of 2024 to 1,980 million at the end of 2025, about 13 percent more, because Chevron issued 301.25 million shares to buy Hess.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Chevron's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Segment mix 2025: external sales upstream US 19,608, upstream international 33,844, downstream US 65,331, downstream international 65,545, All Other 104, total 184,432; upstream 19,608 + 33,844 = 53,452, 53,452 / 184,432 = 29.0%; downstream 65,331 + 65,545 = 130,876, 130,876 / 184,432 = 71.0%; upstream US 19,608 / 184,432 = 10.6%; upstream international 33,844 / 184,432 = 18.4%; downstream US 65,331 / 184,432 = 35.4%; downstream international 65,545 / 184,432 = 35.5%. Upstream share of external sales 2015 (4,117 + 15,587) / 129,925 = 15.2%. Intersegment: upstream US 25,910 / 45,518 = 56.9%. Segment earnings 2025: upstream 12,822, downstream 3,022, sum 15,844; downstream 3,022 / 15,844 = 19.1%; upstream 12,822 / 15,844 = 80.9%. Downstream assets 55,243 / 324,012 = 17.0%. Change 2024 to 2025: upstream 12,822 - 18,602 = -5,780; downstream 3,022 - 1,727 = +1,295; 1,295 / 5,780 = 22.4%; Brent 81 - 69 = 12, 5,780 / 12 = about 480 per $1. 2022 upstream 12,621 + 17,663 = 30,284; downstream 5,394 + 2,761 = 8,155. Margins 2025 on sales before eliminations: upstream US 5,815 / 45,518 = 12.8%; upstream international 7,007 / 42,861 = 16.3%; downstream US 1,375 / 72,485 = 1.9%; downstream international 1,647 / 69,925 = 2.4%. Earnings over year-end segment assets: upstream 12,822 / 256,975 = 5.0%; upstream US 5,815 / 84,559 = 6.9%; upstream international 7,007 / 168,200 = 4.2%; downstream 3,022 / 55,243 = 5.5%; downstream US 1,375 / 33,745 = 4.1%; downstream international 1,647 / 21,146 = 7.8%. US downstream 531 / 3,904 - 1 = -86.4%. CPChem 352 / 8,985 = 3.9%; 352 / 903 - 1 = -61.0%. TCO revenue 21,986 / 18,872 - 1 = 16.5%; TCO net income 2,496 / 5,779 - 1 = -56.8%. Hess net income 193 / 48,000 = 0.4%. ROCE 2015-2025: 2.5, -0.1, 5.0, 8.2, 2.0, -2.8, 9.4, 20.3, 11.9, 10.1, 6.6; sum 73.1 / 11 = 6.6% average; years at or above 8%: 2018, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 = 5 of 11. Production: Permian 1,000 / US 1,858 = 54%; 1,000 / 3,723 = 27%; Australia 472 / 3,723 = 12.7%; Q2 2026 4,070 / 3,396 - 1 = 19.8%; 4,070 / 3,120 - 1 = 30.4%. Guyana 30% x 1.7 million gross = 510 thousand. Gas: 0.91 x 6 = 5.46 per barrel of oil equivalent; 5.46 / 70.80 = 7.7%; 1.8 billion cubic feet / 6,000 = 300 thousand boe a day. Reserves: 3,723 x 365 = 1,359 million boe a year; 10,591 / 1,359 = 7.8 years. California refining 290 + 257 = 547 of 1,099 = 49.8%. Largest holders 8.56 + 7.50 + 7.00 + 6.70 = 29.76%. Balance sheet and returns: net debt 34,461 / 17,756 = 1.94, up 94%; dividends per share 6.84 / 4.28 - 1 = 59.8%; 6.84 / 6.63 = 1.03; returns 27.1 / 12.3 = 2.2 times; free cash flow 16.6 - 12.751 = 3.8 bn; buyback authorisation 75 - 44 = 31 bn; Q2 2026 buyback 3.0 bn / 16.2 million = $185 a share; shares 1,980 / 1,755 - 1 = 12.8%, 1,980 - 1,755 = 225 million; employees 43,039 / 45,600 - 1 = -5.6%; operating and SG&A 33,444 / 29,240 - 1 = 14.4%, 33,444 - 29,240 = 4,204; DD&A 20,132 / 17,282 - 1 = 16.5%, +2,850; income tax 7,258 / 12,299 = 59.0%. Valuation: trailing sales 184,432 - 90,476 + 114,755 = 208,711; trailing net income 12,299 - 5,990 + 14,282 = 20,591; 403.40 / 20.591 = 19.6 times; 403.40 / 12.299 = 32.8 times; implied forward earnings 403.40 / 12.77 = 31.6 bn, 31.6 / 12.3 = 2.6 times; trailing EPS approximately 20,591 / 1,970 = 10.45. Swings: timing 2.9 + 1.4 = 4.3 bn; international downstream 1,013 + 2,457 = 3,470. Further: California inputs 261 + 253 = 514, 514 / 1,038 = 49.5%; GS Caltex 58 / 4,403 = 1.3%, 437 / 4,403 = 9.9%; equity affiliate income 3,000 / 5,131 - 1 = -41.5%; affiliate production 538 / 3,723 = 14.5%; Hess share of 2025 production increase 261 / 385 = 67.8%; enterprise value less market value 431.95 - 403.40 = 28.55 bn; capital employed 232,934 / 177,698 - 1 = 31.1%; total assets 324,012 - 256,938 = 67,074; Hess issuance 15% / 6% = 2.5 years, 15% / 3% = 5 years; external sales 2015 downstream US 48,420 + 4,426 = 52,846, downstream international 54,296 + 2,933 = 57,229; 2020 downstream US 32,589 - 2,150 = 30,439 - balance sheet, capital returns, costs and valuation. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Chevron's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, earnings releases, proxy statement and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  4. ReportedShares outstanding went from 1,755 million at the end of 2024 to 1,980 million at the end of 2025, about 13 percent more, because Chevron issued 301.25 million shares to buy Hess.
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Note 29 and property tables: the Hess acquisition and property, plant and equipment. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe investor day targets earnings per share and adjusted free cash flow growing more than 10 percent a year at $70 Brent, and every share issued for a deal raises the bar.
    Yahoo Finance (Investing.com), Chevron projects $10-20 billion of annual buybacks - the Investor Day plan to 2030. — November 2025 · publ. 12 November 2025 · source ↗
  6. ReportedStockanalysis records the change directly: shares outstanding up 12.01 percent year on year.
    Chevron (CVX) statistics - $205.65 at the close on 24 September 2026, market cap $403.40 billion, trailing P/E 19.75, forward P/E 12.77, dividend yield 3.46%, 39 years of dividend growth. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedDiluted shares averaged 1,817 million in 2024 and 1,856 million in 2025, the first rise in the average since 2022.
    SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts for Chevron (CIK 93410) - operating cash flow, share repurchases and dividends paid, 2015-2025. — 2015-2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe count to follow is shares outstanding, 1,962 million at the end of June 2026.
    Chevron second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - financial results: earnings by segment, Brent, return on capital employed, cash flow and debt. — Q2 2026 · publ. 31 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026