Australia: Forty Years of GorgonNarrow moat

Chevron (CVX) — moat facet

Gorgon has more than forty years of life left, which makes Australian LNG the longest-dated asset Chevron owns outside America.

Australia is Chevron's longest-lived asset outside the United States. The 10-K says plainly that Chevron "is the largest producer of LNG in Australia"1. It holds 47.3 percent of Gorgon, a three-train plant with capacity of 15.6 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas a year whose remaining economic life exceeds 40 years, and 64.1 percent of the Wheatstone project, two trains with 8.9 million tons a year and a remaining life of more than 14 years2. Wheatstone has shipped its 1,000th cargo3.

Australian LNG capacity (million tons a year)15.6Gorgon (47.3%)8.9Wheatstone (64.1%)Chevron Form 10-K FY2025; gross plant capacity
Gorgon has more than 40 years of economic life left.

The size shows in the accounts. Australia produced 472 thousand barrels of oil equivalent a day in 20254, about 13 percent of Chevron's total5, and it held $36,761 million of property, plant and equipment6, one of only three countries, with the United States and Guyana, above 10 percent of Chevron's property, plant and equipment.

What makes it a moat and not just a large field is the plant. An LNG train takes years and billions to build, and once it exists the gas behind it has only one buyer: the plant that liquefies it. Gorgon's Stage 3 reached a final investment decision in 20257, which extends the use of plant already paid for.

The business also shows the weakness of every long-lived asset held abroad: the host country and its currency keep a claim on it. Chevron's 2025 earnings included $469 million of adverse foreign currency effects8, which the company said were largely in Australia9.

The Australian plants also tie Chevron to one currency and one tax system for decades. Australia held $36,761 million of Chevron's property, plant and equipment at the end of 202510, and Chevron has agreed to swap its North West Shelf stake for more of Wheatstone11, concentrating its Australian position further in the plants it runs.

Gorgon is as close to a durable asset as a gas producer owns. The test is Australian production holding near 470 thousand barrels a day through the rest of the decade; a steady fall would mean the older Wheatstone fields are ageing faster than new gas is being connected.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

472 MBOED in 2025; Gorgon Stage 3 sanctioned; windfall-tax and currency risk remain.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Australia net production
472 MBOED (2025)

Two LNG plants with decades of life; a steady fall would mean ageing fields outpace new gas.

Source: Chevron Form 10-K, FY2025 ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
Windfall Taxes and the Australian Dollar
Australia's gas lasts decades, which gives Canberra decades in which to change the tax.
References
  1. ReportedThe 10-K says plainly that Chevron "is the largest producer of LNG in Australia".
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Items 1 and 2: upstream operations, reserves, concessions and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIt holds 47.3 percent of Gorgon, a three-train plant with capacity of 15.6 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas a year whose remaining economic life exceeds 40 years, and 64.1 percent of the Wheatstone project, two trains with 8.9 million tons a year and a remaining life of more than 14 years.
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Items 1 and 2: upstream operations, reserves, concessions and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedWheatstone has shipped its 1,000th cargo.
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Items 1 and 2: upstream operations, reserves, concessions and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedAustralia produced 472 thousand barrels of oil equivalent a day in 2025, about 13 percent of Chevron's total, and it held $36,761 million of property, plant and equipment, one of only three countries, with the United States and Guyana, above 10 percent of Chevron's property, plant and equipment.
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Note 29 and property tables: the Hess acquisition and property, plant and equipment. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  5. Moat Explorer calcAustralia produced 472 thousand barrels of oil equivalent a day in 2025, about 13 percent of Chevron's total, and it held $36,761 million of property, plant and equipment, one of only three countries, with the United States and Guyana, above 10 percent of Chevron's property, plant and equipment.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Chevron's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Segment mix 2025: external sales upstream US 19,608, upstream international 33,844, downstream US 65,331, downstream international 65,545, All Other 104, total 184,432; upstream 19,608 + 33,844 = 53,452, 53,452 / 184,432 = 29.0%; downstream 65,331 + 65,545 = 130,876, 130,876 / 184,432 = 71.0%; upstream US 19,608 / 184,432 = 10.6%; upstream international 33,844 / 184,432 = 18.4%; downstream US 65,331 / 184,432 = 35.4%; downstream international 65,545 / 184,432 = 35.5%. Upstream share of external sales 2015 (4,117 + 15,587) / 129,925 = 15.2%. Intersegment: upstream US 25,910 / 45,518 = 56.9%. Segment earnings 2025: upstream 12,822, downstream 3,022, sum 15,844; downstream 3,022 / 15,844 = 19.1%; upstream 12,822 / 15,844 = 80.9%. Downstream assets 55,243 / 324,012 = 17.0%. Change 2024 to 2025: upstream 12,822 - 18,602 = -5,780; downstream 3,022 - 1,727 = +1,295; 1,295 / 5,780 = 22.4%; Brent 81 - 69 = 12, 5,780 / 12 = about 480 per $1. 2022 upstream 12,621 + 17,663 = 30,284; downstream 5,394 + 2,761 = 8,155. Margins 2025 on sales before eliminations: upstream US 5,815 / 45,518 = 12.8%; upstream international 7,007 / 42,861 = 16.3%; downstream US 1,375 / 72,485 = 1.9%; downstream international 1,647 / 69,925 = 2.4%. Earnings over year-end segment assets: upstream 12,822 / 256,975 = 5.0%; upstream US 5,815 / 84,559 = 6.9%; upstream international 7,007 / 168,200 = 4.2%; downstream 3,022 / 55,243 = 5.5%; downstream US 1,375 / 33,745 = 4.1%; downstream international 1,647 / 21,146 = 7.8%. US downstream 531 / 3,904 - 1 = -86.4%. CPChem 352 / 8,985 = 3.9%; 352 / 903 - 1 = -61.0%. TCO revenue 21,986 / 18,872 - 1 = 16.5%; TCO net income 2,496 / 5,779 - 1 = -56.8%. Hess net income 193 / 48,000 = 0.4%. ROCE 2015-2025: 2.5, -0.1, 5.0, 8.2, 2.0, -2.8, 9.4, 20.3, 11.9, 10.1, 6.6; sum 73.1 / 11 = 6.6% average; years at or above 8%: 2018, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 = 5 of 11. Production: Permian 1,000 / US 1,858 = 54%; 1,000 / 3,723 = 27%; Australia 472 / 3,723 = 12.7%; Q2 2026 4,070 / 3,396 - 1 = 19.8%; 4,070 / 3,120 - 1 = 30.4%. Guyana 30% x 1.7 million gross = 510 thousand. Gas: 0.91 x 6 = 5.46 per barrel of oil equivalent; 5.46 / 70.80 = 7.7%; 1.8 billion cubic feet / 6,000 = 300 thousand boe a day. Reserves: 3,723 x 365 = 1,359 million boe a year; 10,591 / 1,359 = 7.8 years. California refining 290 + 257 = 547 of 1,099 = 49.8%. Largest holders 8.56 + 7.50 + 7.00 + 6.70 = 29.76%. Balance sheet and returns: net debt 34,461 / 17,756 = 1.94, up 94%; dividends per share 6.84 / 4.28 - 1 = 59.8%; 6.84 / 6.63 = 1.03; returns 27.1 / 12.3 = 2.2 times; free cash flow 16.6 - 12.751 = 3.8 bn; buyback authorisation 75 - 44 = 31 bn; Q2 2026 buyback 3.0 bn / 16.2 million = $185 a share; shares 1,980 / 1,755 - 1 = 12.8%, 1,980 - 1,755 = 225 million; employees 43,039 / 45,600 - 1 = -5.6%; operating and SG&A 33,444 / 29,240 - 1 = 14.4%, 33,444 - 29,240 = 4,204; DD&A 20,132 / 17,282 - 1 = 16.5%, +2,850; income tax 7,258 / 12,299 = 59.0%. Valuation: trailing sales 184,432 - 90,476 + 114,755 = 208,711; trailing net income 12,299 - 5,990 + 14,282 = 20,591; 403.40 / 20.591 = 19.6 times; 403.40 / 12.299 = 32.8 times; implied forward earnings 403.40 / 12.77 = 31.6 bn, 31.6 / 12.3 = 2.6 times; trailing EPS approximately 20,591 / 1,970 = 10.45. Swings: timing 2.9 + 1.4 = 4.3 bn; international downstream 1,013 + 2,457 = 3,470. Further: California inputs 261 + 253 = 514, 514 / 1,038 = 49.5%; GS Caltex 58 / 4,403 = 1.3%, 437 / 4,403 = 9.9%; equity affiliate income 3,000 / 5,131 - 1 = -41.5%; affiliate production 538 / 3,723 = 14.5%; Hess share of 2025 production increase 261 / 385 = 67.8%; enterprise value less market value 431.95 - 403.40 = 28.55 bn; capital employed 232,934 / 177,698 - 1 = 31.1%; total assets 324,012 - 256,938 = 67,074; Hess issuance 15% / 6% = 2.5 years, 15% / 3% = 5 years; external sales 2015 downstream US 48,420 + 4,426 = 52,846, downstream international 54,296 + 2,933 = 57,229; 2020 downstream US 32,589 - 2,150 = 30,439 - sales mix, production and ownership. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Chevron's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, earnings releases, proxy statement and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  6. ReportedAustralia produced 472 thousand barrels of oil equivalent a day in 2025, about 13 percent of Chevron's total, and it held $36,761 million of property, plant and equipment, one of only three countries, with the United States and Guyana, above 10 percent of Chevron's property, plant and equipment.
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Note 29 and property tables: the Hess acquisition and property, plant and equipment. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedGorgon's Stage 3 reached a final investment decision in 2025, which extends the use of plant already paid for.
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Items 1 and 2: upstream operations, reserves, concessions and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedChevron's 2025 earnings included $469 million of adverse foreign currency effects, which the company said were largely in Australia.
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Items 1 and 2: upstream operations, reserves, concessions and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedChevron's 2025 earnings included $469 million of adverse foreign currency effects, which the company said were largely in Australia.
    Chevron fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — FY2025 · publ. 30 January 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedAustralia held $36,761 million of Chevron's property, plant and equipment at the end of 2025, and Chevron has agreed to swap its North West Shelf stake for more of Wheatstone, concentrating its Australian position further in the plants it runs.
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - liquidity and capital resources: debt, ratings, capital spending, dividends and share repurchases. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedAustralia held $36,761 million of Chevron's property, plant and equipment at the end of 2025, and Chevron has agreed to swap its North West Shelf stake for more of Wheatstone, concentrating its Australian position further in the plants it runs.
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - liquidity and capital resources: debt, ratings, capital spending, dividends and share repurchases. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026