$44 Billion of a $75 Billion BuybackNarrow moat

Chevron (CVX) — moat facet

Chevron has spent $44 billion of a $75 billion buyback and promises $10 to $20 billion a year, which is to say the buyback is whatever oil leaves over.

Chevron returns much of its cash through buybacks. In January 2023 its board authorised $75 billion of repurchases1, and by the end of June 2026 the company had bought back 281 million shares for $44.0 billion under that programme, including 16.2 million shares for $3.0 billion in the second quarter2. About $31 billion of the authorisation remains3.

Share repurchases ($M)1,75720201,383202111,255202214,939202315,229202412,0792025SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts, payments for repurchase of common stock
Small in the downturn, large after it.

The pace moves with the oil price. Cash buybacks were $14,939 million in 2023, $15,229 million in 2024 and $12,079 million in 20254, and Chevron expects $2.5 billion to $3.0 billion in the third quarter of 20265. At its November 2025 investor day it said it would buy back between $10 billion and $20 billion of shares a year through 2030, "assuming Brent crude averages between $60 and $80 per barrel"6.

That range is the revealing part. A buyback programme that varies by $10 billion a year with the oil price is not a fixed return of capital; it is the residual after capital spending and the dividend.

Buybacks at Chevron have a history of being bought at the top and stopped at the bottom. The company repurchased only $1,757 million in 2020 and $1,383 million in 20217, and $11,255 million in 20228, the best year for earnings in a decade.

The investor day framed the range as roughly 3 percent to 6 percent of shares outstanding a year9. At that pace the Hess issuance, about 15 percent10, would take between two and a half and five years to buy back.

The buyback's value depends on the price paid. Share count per dollar spent is the figure to follow; Chevron spent about $185 a share in the second quarter of 202611, and buying most heavily when the shares are dearest would turn the programme into a transfer to departing shareholders.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Q3 2026 guided at $2.5-3.0bn; $31bn of the authorisation left.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Share repurchases, latest quarter
$3.0bn for 16.2M shares (Q2 2026)

The residual payout; heavy buying at the top of the cycle would transfer value to sellers.

Source: Chevron Form 10-Q, Q2 2026 ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
Buybacks That Hess Undid
Chevron spent $12 billion on buybacks in 2025 and still ended the year with 225 million more shares, because it paid for Hess in stock.
References
  1. ReportedIn January 2023 its board authorised $75 billion of repurchases, and by the end of June 2026 the company had bought back 281 million shares for $44.0 billion under that programme, including 16.2 million shares for $3.0 billion in the second quarter.
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - liquidity and capital resources: debt, ratings, capital spending, dividends and share repurchases. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIn January 2023 its board authorised $75 billion of repurchases, and by the end of June 2026 the company had bought back 281 million shares for $44.0 billion under that programme, including 16.2 million shares for $3.0 billion in the second quarter.
    Chevron Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - share repurchases, the Middle East conflict, Venezuela, OPEC+ exposure and litigation. — Q2 2026 · publ. 6 August 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcAbout $31 billion of the authorisation remains.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Chevron's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Segment mix 2025: external sales upstream US 19,608, upstream international 33,844, downstream US 65,331, downstream international 65,545, All Other 104, total 184,432; upstream 19,608 + 33,844 = 53,452, 53,452 / 184,432 = 29.0%; downstream 65,331 + 65,545 = 130,876, 130,876 / 184,432 = 71.0%; upstream US 19,608 / 184,432 = 10.6%; upstream international 33,844 / 184,432 = 18.4%; downstream US 65,331 / 184,432 = 35.4%; downstream international 65,545 / 184,432 = 35.5%. Upstream share of external sales 2015 (4,117 + 15,587) / 129,925 = 15.2%. Intersegment: upstream US 25,910 / 45,518 = 56.9%. Segment earnings 2025: upstream 12,822, downstream 3,022, sum 15,844; downstream 3,022 / 15,844 = 19.1%; upstream 12,822 / 15,844 = 80.9%. Downstream assets 55,243 / 324,012 = 17.0%. Change 2024 to 2025: upstream 12,822 - 18,602 = -5,780; downstream 3,022 - 1,727 = +1,295; 1,295 / 5,780 = 22.4%; Brent 81 - 69 = 12, 5,780 / 12 = about 480 per $1. 2022 upstream 12,621 + 17,663 = 30,284; downstream 5,394 + 2,761 = 8,155. Margins 2025 on sales before eliminations: upstream US 5,815 / 45,518 = 12.8%; upstream international 7,007 / 42,861 = 16.3%; downstream US 1,375 / 72,485 = 1.9%; downstream international 1,647 / 69,925 = 2.4%. Earnings over year-end segment assets: upstream 12,822 / 256,975 = 5.0%; upstream US 5,815 / 84,559 = 6.9%; upstream international 7,007 / 168,200 = 4.2%; downstream 3,022 / 55,243 = 5.5%; downstream US 1,375 / 33,745 = 4.1%; downstream international 1,647 / 21,146 = 7.8%. US downstream 531 / 3,904 - 1 = -86.4%. CPChem 352 / 8,985 = 3.9%; 352 / 903 - 1 = -61.0%. TCO revenue 21,986 / 18,872 - 1 = 16.5%; TCO net income 2,496 / 5,779 - 1 = -56.8%. Hess net income 193 / 48,000 = 0.4%. ROCE 2015-2025: 2.5, -0.1, 5.0, 8.2, 2.0, -2.8, 9.4, 20.3, 11.9, 10.1, 6.6; sum 73.1 / 11 = 6.6% average; years at or above 8%: 2018, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 = 5 of 11. Production: Permian 1,000 / US 1,858 = 54%; 1,000 / 3,723 = 27%; Australia 472 / 3,723 = 12.7%; Q2 2026 4,070 / 3,396 - 1 = 19.8%; 4,070 / 3,120 - 1 = 30.4%. Guyana 30% x 1.7 million gross = 510 thousand. Gas: 0.91 x 6 = 5.46 per barrel of oil equivalent; 5.46 / 70.80 = 7.7%; 1.8 billion cubic feet / 6,000 = 300 thousand boe a day. Reserves: 3,723 x 365 = 1,359 million boe a year; 10,591 / 1,359 = 7.8 years. California refining 290 + 257 = 547 of 1,099 = 49.8%. Largest holders 8.56 + 7.50 + 7.00 + 6.70 = 29.76%. Balance sheet and returns: net debt 34,461 / 17,756 = 1.94, up 94%; dividends per share 6.84 / 4.28 - 1 = 59.8%; 6.84 / 6.63 = 1.03; returns 27.1 / 12.3 = 2.2 times; free cash flow 16.6 - 12.751 = 3.8 bn; buyback authorisation 75 - 44 = 31 bn; Q2 2026 buyback 3.0 bn / 16.2 million = $185 a share; shares 1,980 / 1,755 - 1 = 12.8%, 1,980 - 1,755 = 225 million; employees 43,039 / 45,600 - 1 = -5.6%; operating and SG&A 33,444 / 29,240 - 1 = 14.4%, 33,444 - 29,240 = 4,204; DD&A 20,132 / 17,282 - 1 = 16.5%, +2,850; income tax 7,258 / 12,299 = 59.0%. Valuation: trailing sales 184,432 - 90,476 + 114,755 = 208,711; trailing net income 12,299 - 5,990 + 14,282 = 20,591; 403.40 / 20.591 = 19.6 times; 403.40 / 12.299 = 32.8 times; implied forward earnings 403.40 / 12.77 = 31.6 bn, 31.6 / 12.3 = 2.6 times; trailing EPS approximately 20,591 / 1,970 = 10.45. Swings: timing 2.9 + 1.4 = 4.3 bn; international downstream 1,013 + 2,457 = 3,470. Further: California inputs 261 + 253 = 514, 514 / 1,038 = 49.5%; GS Caltex 58 / 4,403 = 1.3%, 437 / 4,403 = 9.9%; equity affiliate income 3,000 / 5,131 - 1 = -41.5%; affiliate production 538 / 3,723 = 14.5%; Hess share of 2025 production increase 261 / 385 = 67.8%; enterprise value less market value 431.95 - 403.40 = 28.55 bn; capital employed 232,934 / 177,698 - 1 = 31.1%; total assets 324,012 - 256,938 = 67,074; Hess issuance 15% / 6% = 2.5 years, 15% / 3% = 5 years; external sales 2015 downstream US 48,420 + 4,426 = 52,846, downstream international 54,296 + 2,933 = 57,229; 2020 downstream US 32,589 - 2,150 = 30,439 - balance sheet, capital returns, costs and valuation. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Chevron's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, earnings releases, proxy statement and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  4. ReportedCash buybacks were $14,939 million in 2023, $15,229 million in 2024 and $12,079 million in 2025, and Chevron expects $2.5 billion to $3.0 billion in the third quarter of 2026.
    SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts for Chevron (CIK 93410) - operating cash flow, share repurchases and dividends paid, 2015-2025. — 2015-2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedCash buybacks were $14,939 million in 2023, $15,229 million in 2024 and $12,079 million in 2025, and Chevron expects $2.5 billion to $3.0 billion in the third quarter of 2026.
    Chevron Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - share repurchases, the Middle East conflict, Venezuela, OPEC+ exposure and litigation. — Q2 2026 · publ. 6 August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedAt its November 2025 investor day it said it would buy back between $10 billion and $20 billion of shares a year through 2030, "assuming Brent crude averages between $60 and $80 per barrel".
    Yahoo Finance (Investing.com), Chevron projects $10-20 billion of annual buybacks - the Investor Day plan to 2030. — November 2025 · publ. 12 November 2025 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe company repurchased only $1,757 million in 2020 and $1,383 million in 2021, and $11,255 million in 2022, the best year for earnings in a decade.
    SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts for Chevron (CIK 93410) - operating cash flow, share repurchases and dividends paid, 2015-2025. — 2015-2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe company repurchased only $1,757 million in 2020 and $1,383 million in 2021, and $11,255 million in 2022, the best year for earnings in a decade.
    SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts for Chevron (CIK 93410) - operating cash flow, share repurchases and dividends paid, 2015-2025. — 2015-2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedThe investor day framed the range as roughly 3 percent to 6 percent of shares outstanding a year.
    Yahoo Finance (Investing.com), Chevron projects $10-20 billion of annual buybacks - the Investor Day plan to 2030. — November 2025 · publ. 12 November 2025 · source ↗
  10. ReportedAt that pace the Hess issuance, about 15 percent, would take between two and a half and five years to buy back.
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Note 29 and property tables: the Hess acquisition and property, plant and equipment. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  11. Moat Explorer calcShare count per dollar spent is the figure to follow; Chevron spent about $185 a share in the second quarter of 2026, and buying most heavily when the shares are dearest would turn the programme into a transfer to departing shareholders.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Chevron's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Segment mix 2025: external sales upstream US 19,608, upstream international 33,844, downstream US 65,331, downstream international 65,545, All Other 104, total 184,432; upstream 19,608 + 33,844 = 53,452, 53,452 / 184,432 = 29.0%; downstream 65,331 + 65,545 = 130,876, 130,876 / 184,432 = 71.0%; upstream US 19,608 / 184,432 = 10.6%; upstream international 33,844 / 184,432 = 18.4%; downstream US 65,331 / 184,432 = 35.4%; downstream international 65,545 / 184,432 = 35.5%. Upstream share of external sales 2015 (4,117 + 15,587) / 129,925 = 15.2%. Intersegment: upstream US 25,910 / 45,518 = 56.9%. Segment earnings 2025: upstream 12,822, downstream 3,022, sum 15,844; downstream 3,022 / 15,844 = 19.1%; upstream 12,822 / 15,844 = 80.9%. Downstream assets 55,243 / 324,012 = 17.0%. Change 2024 to 2025: upstream 12,822 - 18,602 = -5,780; downstream 3,022 - 1,727 = +1,295; 1,295 / 5,780 = 22.4%; Brent 81 - 69 = 12, 5,780 / 12 = about 480 per $1. 2022 upstream 12,621 + 17,663 = 30,284; downstream 5,394 + 2,761 = 8,155. Margins 2025 on sales before eliminations: upstream US 5,815 / 45,518 = 12.8%; upstream international 7,007 / 42,861 = 16.3%; downstream US 1,375 / 72,485 = 1.9%; downstream international 1,647 / 69,925 = 2.4%. Earnings over year-end segment assets: upstream 12,822 / 256,975 = 5.0%; upstream US 5,815 / 84,559 = 6.9%; upstream international 7,007 / 168,200 = 4.2%; downstream 3,022 / 55,243 = 5.5%; downstream US 1,375 / 33,745 = 4.1%; downstream international 1,647 / 21,146 = 7.8%. US downstream 531 / 3,904 - 1 = -86.4%. CPChem 352 / 8,985 = 3.9%; 352 / 903 - 1 = -61.0%. TCO revenue 21,986 / 18,872 - 1 = 16.5%; TCO net income 2,496 / 5,779 - 1 = -56.8%. Hess net income 193 / 48,000 = 0.4%. ROCE 2015-2025: 2.5, -0.1, 5.0, 8.2, 2.0, -2.8, 9.4, 20.3, 11.9, 10.1, 6.6; sum 73.1 / 11 = 6.6% average; years at or above 8%: 2018, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 = 5 of 11. Production: Permian 1,000 / US 1,858 = 54%; 1,000 / 3,723 = 27%; Australia 472 / 3,723 = 12.7%; Q2 2026 4,070 / 3,396 - 1 = 19.8%; 4,070 / 3,120 - 1 = 30.4%. Guyana 30% x 1.7 million gross = 510 thousand. Gas: 0.91 x 6 = 5.46 per barrel of oil equivalent; 5.46 / 70.80 = 7.7%; 1.8 billion cubic feet / 6,000 = 300 thousand boe a day. Reserves: 3,723 x 365 = 1,359 million boe a year; 10,591 / 1,359 = 7.8 years. California refining 290 + 257 = 547 of 1,099 = 49.8%. Largest holders 8.56 + 7.50 + 7.00 + 6.70 = 29.76%. Balance sheet and returns: net debt 34,461 / 17,756 = 1.94, up 94%; dividends per share 6.84 / 4.28 - 1 = 59.8%; 6.84 / 6.63 = 1.03; returns 27.1 / 12.3 = 2.2 times; free cash flow 16.6 - 12.751 = 3.8 bn; buyback authorisation 75 - 44 = 31 bn; Q2 2026 buyback 3.0 bn / 16.2 million = $185 a share; shares 1,980 / 1,755 - 1 = 12.8%, 1,980 - 1,755 = 225 million; employees 43,039 / 45,600 - 1 = -5.6%; operating and SG&A 33,444 / 29,240 - 1 = 14.4%, 33,444 - 29,240 = 4,204; DD&A 20,132 / 17,282 - 1 = 16.5%, +2,850; income tax 7,258 / 12,299 = 59.0%. Valuation: trailing sales 184,432 - 90,476 + 114,755 = 208,711; trailing net income 12,299 - 5,990 + 14,282 = 20,591; 403.40 / 20.591 = 19.6 times; 403.40 / 12.299 = 32.8 times; implied forward earnings 403.40 / 12.77 = 31.6 bn, 31.6 / 12.3 = 2.6 times; trailing EPS approximately 20,591 / 1,970 = 10.45. Swings: timing 2.9 + 1.4 = 4.3 bn; international downstream 1,013 + 2,457 = 3,470. Further: California inputs 261 + 253 = 514, 514 / 1,038 = 49.5%; GS Caltex 58 / 4,403 = 1.3%, 437 / 4,403 = 9.9%; equity affiliate income 3,000 / 5,131 - 1 = -41.5%; affiliate production 538 / 3,723 = 14.5%; Hess share of 2025 production increase 261 / 385 = 67.8%; enterprise value less market value 431.95 - 403.40 = 28.55 bn; capital employed 232,934 / 177,698 - 1 = 31.1%; total assets 324,012 - 256,938 = 67,074; Hess issuance 15% / 6% = 2.5 years, 15% / 3% = 5 years; external sales 2015 downstream US 48,420 + 4,426 = 52,846, downstream international 54,296 + 2,933 = 57,229; 2020 downstream US 32,589 - 2,150 = 30,439 - balance sheet, capital returns, costs and valuation. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Chevron's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, earnings releases, proxy statement and market data; operands shown in the source line.
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026