✦ Iraq, Libya and More VenezuelaThin moat

Chevron (CVX) — the future bets

Chevron is taking options on Iraq, Libya and Venezuela, where the barrels are cheap and the host sets the terms.

Chevron is adding exposure where few Western companies go. In the second quarter of 2026 it "Signed heads of agreements with the Government of Iraq to advance potential participation in the West Qurna 2 and Nasiriyah oilfield developments"1. In the first quarter it "Entered Libya as a winning bidder in the Sirte Basin"2, expanded its Venezuelan heavy-oil interests, and took a final investment decision on Aseng gas in Equatorial Guinea3.

New entries, 2026Iraqheads of agreement, West Qurna 2 and NasiriyahLibyawinning bidder, Sirte BasinVenezuelaexpanded heavy-oil interests; 0 proved reservesEquatorial GuineaFID, Aseng gasOPEC+ share of outputabout 17 percent, H1 2026Chevron Q1 and Q2 2026 earnings releases and 10-Q
Options on cheap barrels in hard places.

These are options, not production. A heads of agreement is a step toward a contract, not the contract itself, and Libya and Iraq both sit inside OPEC. About 17 percent of Chevron's production in the first half of 2026 already came from OPEC+ member countries4.

The logic is that large, cheap reserves exist in these places and fewer competitors bid for them. The cost is that the terms are set by governments whose priorities change, as Venezuela shows: Chevron recognises no proved reserves there, and income only when cash is received56.

Chevron's chairman told investors that "We have been a part of Venezuela's past for more than a century"7. A century of presence has not produced recognised reserves.

In Venezuela Chevron expanded its heavy-oil interest in Petroindependencia and took on the Ayacucho 8 area at Petropiar in the first quarter of 20268. Each of these positions is an option on a government's future goodwill.

The share of production from OPEC+ countries is the figure that will measure these bets. A rise above 17 percent would mean Chevron has chosen more of its future in places where the host sets the terms.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Heads of agreement in Iraq; Libya bid won; Venezuela expanded.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Share of production in OPEC+ member countries
About 17% (H1 2026)

Exposure to hosts who set terms and supply; a rising share would mean more of the future is in their hands.

Source: Chevron Form 10-Q, Q2 2026 ↗
References
  1. ReportedIn the second quarter of 2026 it "Signed heads of agreements with the Government of Iraq to advance potential participation in the West Qurna 2 and Nasiriyah oilfield developments".
    Chevron second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - operations: production, refining, realisations, curtailments and business events. — Q2 2026 · publ. 31 July 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIn the first quarter it "Entered Libya as a winning bidder in the Sirte Basin", expanded its Venezuelan heavy-oil interests, and took a final investment decision on Aseng gas in Equatorial Guinea.
    Chevron first-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q1 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIn the first quarter it "Entered Libya as a winning bidder in the Sirte Basin", expanded its Venezuelan heavy-oil interests, and took a final investment decision on Aseng gas in Equatorial Guinea.
    Chevron first-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q1 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedAbout 17 percent of Chevron's production in the first half of 2026 already came from OPEC+ member countries.
    Chevron Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - share repurchases, the Middle East conflict, Venezuela, OPEC+ exposure and litigation. — Q2 2026 · publ. 6 August 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe cost is that the terms are set by governments whose priorities change, as Venezuela shows: Chevron recognises no proved reserves there, and income only when cash is received.
    Chevron Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - share repurchases, the Middle East conflict, Venezuela, OPEC+ exposure and litigation. — Q2 2026 · publ. 6 August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe cost is that the terms are set by governments whose priorities change, as Venezuela shows: Chevron recognises no proved reserves there, and income only when cash is received.
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Items 1 and 2: upstream operations, reserves, concessions and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedChevron's chairman told investors that "We have been a part of Venezuela's past for more than a century".
    Chevron fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — FY2025 · publ. 30 January 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedIn Venezuela Chevron expanded its heavy-oil interest in Petroindependencia and took on the Ayacucho 8 area at Petropiar in the first quarter of 2026.
    Chevron first-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q1 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026