Otezla: $13.4 Billion Paid, $1.2 Billion Written DownThin moat

Amgen (AMGN) — moat facet

Amgen paid $13.4 billion for Otezla in 2019, has sold about that much of it since, and has already written it down by $1.2 billion.

Otezla was Amgen's largest pure bet on buying a franchise. It paid $13,400 million in cash to Celgene in November 20191. From 2020 to 2025 the drug sold $13,311 million2, about the purchase price, and sales barely grew: $2,195 million in 2020 and $2,265 million in 202534.

Otezla sales ($M)2,19520202,24920212,28820222,18820232,12620242,2652025Amgen FY2020-FY2025 results releases; bought for $13,400M in 2019
Six flat years after a $13.4 billion purchase.

The accounts have already marked it down. Amgen took impairments of $800 million in the first half of 2025, when it estimated the asset's fair value at $4.0 billion against a carrying value of $4.8 billion, and $400 million more in the third quarter, $1.2 billion in total5. The trigger was policy: CMS selected Otezla for Medicare price setting beginning in 20276.

Otezla is a pill for psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis, and the 10-K lists a crowded field against it: Skyrizi and HUMIRA from AbbVie, Taltz from Lilly, Tremfya from Johnson & Johnson, Cosentyx from Novartis and SOTYKTU from Bristol Myers Squibb7. It competes with newer drugs on convenience rather than on potency.

The purchase has earned back its cost in revenue, not in profit. Six years of flat sales, a $1.2 billion write-down about 9% of the price8, and a government price to come are the record.

Otezla is mainly an American business: $431 million of its $491 million in the second quarter of 20269. That concentrates the damage from the 2027 Medicare price on the part of the drug that is still protected by patents.

Otezla's second-quarter 2026 sales fell 21% to $491 million, on 9% lower net selling price and 6% lower volume10. The drug is now shrinking before Medicare's price even applies; another year of falls near that rate would confirm that Amgen paid for a franchise at its peak.

Moat trajectory: Narrowing

Sales -21% in Q2 2026; Medicare price from 2027; European generics.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Otezla sales, latest quarter
$491M, -21% (Q2 2026)

Whether the $13.4bn purchase still grows; continued falls before the 2027 Medicare price would mean it peaked.

Source: Amgen Q2 2026 results release ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
Generic Apremilast Arrives in Europe
Otezla is a pill, so copies arrive fast, and they reached Europe in early 2026, two years before its American patents end.
References
  1. ReportedIt paid $13,400 million in cash to Celgene in November 2019.
    Amgen Form 10-K for fiscal 2020 - the Otezla acquisition from Celgene for $13.4 billion in cash. — FY2020 · publ. February 2021 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcFrom 2020 to 2025 the drug sold $13,311 million, about the purchase price, and sales barely grew: $2,195 million in 2020 and $2,265 million in 2025.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Amgen's reported product sales and financial statements ($ millions unless stated). Sales deductions: 2019 rebates 6,825 + chargebacks 7,090 + other 1,292 = 15,207; 2025 21,697 + 16,988 + 3,298 = 41,983; 41,983 / 35,148 = 1.19 times net product sales; implied gross product sales 35,148 + 41,983 = 77,131. Growth 2019-2025: deductions 41,983 / 15,207 = 2.76 times; net product sales 35,148 / 22,204 = 1.58 times (up 58%); rebates 21,697 / 6,825 = 3.18 times; chargebacks 16,988 / 7,090 = 2.4 times. Wholesalers 2025 gross: 26,253 + 20,986 + 12,562 = 59,801; 59,801 / 36,751 = 1.63 times total revenues; McKesson 26,253 / 36,751 = 71%. ENBREL: 2,226 / 5,433 - 1 = -59%; share of product sales 5,226 / 22,204 = 23.5% (2019), 2,226 / 35,148 = 6.3% (2025). ENBREL + Otezla 2025: 2,226 + 2,265 = 4,491; 4,491 / 36,751 = 12%. Otezla sales 2020-2025: 2,195 + 2,249 + 2,288 + 2,188 + 2,126 + 2,265 = 13,311; impairment 1,200 / 13,400 = 9%. Horizon products: 2023 448 + 272 + 65 + 164 = 949; 2024 1,851 + 1,185 + 379 + 758 = 4,173; 2025 1,903 + 1,340 + 655 + 719 = 4,617, 4,617 / 27,800 = 16.6%; Q2 2026 576 + 400 + 335 + 149 = 1,460, x4 = 5,840. TEPEZZA + KRYSTEXXA 2025 1,903 + 1,340 = 3,243; KRYSTEXXA 1,340 / 1,185 - 1 = 13.1%; TEPEZZA 1,903 / 1,851 - 1 = 2.8%; UPLIZNA 655 / 379 - 1 = 72.8%; H1 2026 262 + 335 = 597; ultra-rare 719 / 758 - 1 = -5.1%; UPLIZNA + ultra-rare 655 + 719 = 1,374. TAVNEOS H1 2026 119 + 150 = 269. Acquisitions: 13.4 + 3.9 + 27.8 = 45.1 bn; acquired products 2025 2,265 + 459 + 4,617 = 7,341, 7,341 / 36,751 = 20%. Interest 2,755 / 9,080 = 30%. Net debt 30 June 2026: 57.3 - 13.989 = 43.3 bn. Goodwill + intangibles 18,680 + 22,276 = 40,956, 40,956 / 90,586 = 45%. EPS gap 21.84 - 14.23 = 7.61. R&D 7,272 / 4,784 - 1 = 52%; 7,272 / 36,751 = 19.8%. Growth drivers 2025: Repatha 3,016 + EVENITY 2,100 + TEZSPIRE 1,478 + BLINCYTO 1,559 = 8,153 (2024: 2,222 + 1,563 + 972 + 1,216 = 5,973; 2023: 1,635 + 1,160 + 567 + 861 = 4,223; 2021: 1,117 + 530 + 0 + 472 = 2,119; 2019: 661 + 189 + 0 + 312 = 1,162); 8,153 / 5,973 - 1 = 36.5%, about 37%; 8,153 / 36,751 = 22%. Repatha 3,016 / 661 = 4.6 times, 3,016 / 2,222 - 1 = 36%; EVENITY 2,100 / 189 = 11 times; BLINCYTO 1,559 / 312 = 5.0 times. KYPROLIS 1,412 / 1,503 - 1 = -6%; KYPROLIS + Nplate 1,412 + 1,524 = 2,936, 2,936 / 6,660 = 44%; BLINCYTO + IMDELLTRA 1,559 + 627 = 2,186; Q2 2026 472 + 288 = 760. IMDELLTRA run rate 288 x 4 = 1,152, 1,152 / 6,498 = 18%. Biosimilars: 2025 AMJEVITA 597 + PAVBLU 700 + WEZLANA 273 + MVASI 771 + in other products 683 = 3,024; 3,024 / 35,148 = 8.6% of product sales; 3,024 / 36,751 = 8.2% of total revenues; PAVBLU 700 / 3,024 = 23%; AMJEVITA 597 / 761 - 1 = -22%; band 2022 1,831 / 2,177 - 1 = -16%; in other products 683 / 667 - 1 = 2%; WEZLANA and other biosimilars added (273 - 27) + (683 - 667) = 262; Q2 2026 155 + 287 + 61 + 153 + 199 = 855; Q2 2025 133 + 130 + 35 + 191 + 172 = 661; 855 / 661 - 1 = 29%; shares of total revenues 568 / 23,362 = 2.4% (2019), 2,177 / 25,979 = 8.4% (2021), 1,916 / 28,190 = 6.8% (2023). Bands 2025: general medicine and bone 3,016 + 2,100 + 4,414 + 2,084 = 11,614 (31.6%); inflammation and rare disease 2,226 + 2,265 + 1,478 + 1,903 + 1,340 + 655 + 459 + 719 = 11,045 (30.1%); oncology 1,559 + 627 + 1,175 + 1,412 + 363 + 1,524 = 6,660 (18.1%); biosimilars 3,024 (8.2%); established and other 1,389 + 435 + 353 + (1,311 - 683 = 628) + 1,603 = 4,408 (12.0%); total 36,751. 2019 bands 5,457; 5,404; 2,895; 568; 9,038; total 23,362. General medicine 11,614 / 5,457 = 2.1 times, 11,614 / 10,384 - 1 = 11.8%; inflammation 2020 7,191, 2024 10,870 / 7,535 - 1 = 44%, 2025 11,045 / 10,870 - 1 = 1.6%, non-ENBREL-Otezla 11,045 - 4,491 = 6,554; oncology 6,660 / 2,895 = 2.3 times, 6,660 / 5,685 - 1 = 17.2%; established 4,408 / 9,038 = 0.49. Q2 bands 2026 vs 2025: general medicine 953 + 714 + 759 + 352 = 2,778 vs 696 + 518 + 1,122 + 532 = 2,868, down 3%; Repatha + EVENITY 1,667 vs 1,214; denosumab 1,111 vs 1,654, down 33%; inflammation 3,167 vs 604 + 618 + 342 + 505 + 349 + 176 + 110 + 183 = 2,887, up 9.7%; oncology 1,953 vs 384 + 134 + 305 + 378 + 90 + 369 = 1,660, up 17.7%; established and other 632 + (351 - 199) + 517 = 1,301 vs 359 + 82 + 92 + (334 - 172) + 408 = 1,103, up 18%. Denosumab 2025 4,414 + 2,084 = 6,498, 6,498 / 36,751 = 17.7%; Q1 2026 727 + 411 = 1,138; H1 2026 1,486 + 763 = 2,249 vs 2,221 + 1,098 = 3,319. Neulasta 435 / 4,534 - 1 = -90%. Geography: US 25,656 / 35,148 = 73%; rest of world 9,492 / 35,148 = 27.0%; Q2 2026 2,547 / 9,537 = 26.7%; AMJEVITA 129 / 155 = 83.2%; Aranesp 258 / 352 = 73.3%; ENBREL 6 / 580 = 1.0%. Novartis-facing 2025 3,016 + 2,265 + 2,226 + 1,524 + 1,478 = 10,509, 10,509 / 36,751 = 29%. Other revenues 1,603 / 36,751 = 4.4%. Receivables 9,570 / 6,782 - 1 = 41%. Guidance midpoints: (37.0 + 38.4) / 2 = 37.7; (37.1 + 38.5) / 2 = 37.8; (38.2 + 39.4) / 2 = 38.8; non-GAAP EPS (22.30 + 23.50) / 2 = 22.90. IRS: 3.6 + 5.1 + 2.0 = 10.7 bn before interest; offsets 0.9 + 2.2 = 3.1 bn; 10.7 / 7.711 = 1.4 times 2025 net income; 10.7 / 224.15 = 4.8% of market value. Trailing free cash flow 8,100 - 2,891 + 4,966 = 10,175; 10,175 / 224,150 = 4.5%. Shares 538.8 / 629.6 - 1 = -14%. Gross margin (total revenues - cost of sales) / total revenues: (28,190 - 8,451) / 28,190 = 70.0% (2023); (33,424 - 12,858) / 33,424 = 61.5% (2024); (36,751 - 12,037) / 36,751 = 67.2% (2025). Pre-tax income 2025 7,711 + 1,265 = 8,976. Total revenues 36,751 / 21,662 = 1.70 times 2015. Market value 224.15 / 176.25 - 1 = 27% in 2026; added 224.15 - 176.25 = 47.9 bn against 176.25 - 122.45 = 53.8 bn in 2015-2025. Trailing net income 7,711 - 3,162 + 4,194 = 8,743; trailing revenue 36,751 - 17,328 + 18,672 = 38,095 - product and band totals, growth and sales deductions. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Amgen's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  3. ReportedFrom 2020 to 2025 the drug sold $13,311 million, about the purchase price, and sales barely grew: $2,195 million in 2020 and $2,265 million in 2025.
    Amgen fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales for 2019-2020. — FY2020 · publ. February 2021 · source ↗
  4. ReportedFrom 2020 to 2025 the drug sold $13,311 million, about the purchase price, and sales barely grew: $2,195 million in 2020 and $2,265 million in 2025.
    Amgen fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales for 2024-2025, non-GAAP EPS and 2026 guidance. — FY2025 · publ. 3 February 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedAmgen took impairments of $800 million in the first half of 2025, when it estimated the asset's fair value at $4.0 billion against a carrying value of $4.8 billion, and $400 million more in the third quarter, $1.2 billion in total.
    Amgen Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements and notes: earnings, cash flow, debt, intangibles and impairments. — FY2025 · publ. 13 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe trigger was policy: CMS selected Otezla for Medicare price setting beginning in 2027.
    Amgen Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1A risk factors, government pricing and legal proceedings including the IRS dispute. — FY2025 · publ. 13 February 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedOtezla is a pill for psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis, and the 10-K lists a crowded field against it: Skyrizi and HUMIRA from AbbVie, Taltz from Lilly, Tremfya from Johnson & Johnson, Cosentyx from Novartis and SOTYKTU from Bristol Myers Squibb.
    Amgen Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 patents, biosimilars and competitors. — FY2025 · publ. 13 February 2026 · source ↗
  8. Moat Explorer calcSix years of flat sales, a $1.2 billion write-down about 9% of the price, and a government price to come are the record.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Amgen's reported product sales and financial statements ($ millions unless stated). Sales deductions: 2019 rebates 6,825 + chargebacks 7,090 + other 1,292 = 15,207; 2025 21,697 + 16,988 + 3,298 = 41,983; 41,983 / 35,148 = 1.19 times net product sales; implied gross product sales 35,148 + 41,983 = 77,131. Growth 2019-2025: deductions 41,983 / 15,207 = 2.76 times; net product sales 35,148 / 22,204 = 1.58 times (up 58%); rebates 21,697 / 6,825 = 3.18 times; chargebacks 16,988 / 7,090 = 2.4 times. Wholesalers 2025 gross: 26,253 + 20,986 + 12,562 = 59,801; 59,801 / 36,751 = 1.63 times total revenues; McKesson 26,253 / 36,751 = 71%. ENBREL: 2,226 / 5,433 - 1 = -59%; share of product sales 5,226 / 22,204 = 23.5% (2019), 2,226 / 35,148 = 6.3% (2025). ENBREL + Otezla 2025: 2,226 + 2,265 = 4,491; 4,491 / 36,751 = 12%. Otezla sales 2020-2025: 2,195 + 2,249 + 2,288 + 2,188 + 2,126 + 2,265 = 13,311; impairment 1,200 / 13,400 = 9%. Horizon products: 2023 448 + 272 + 65 + 164 = 949; 2024 1,851 + 1,185 + 379 + 758 = 4,173; 2025 1,903 + 1,340 + 655 + 719 = 4,617, 4,617 / 27,800 = 16.6%; Q2 2026 576 + 400 + 335 + 149 = 1,460, x4 = 5,840. TEPEZZA + KRYSTEXXA 2025 1,903 + 1,340 = 3,243; KRYSTEXXA 1,340 / 1,185 - 1 = 13.1%; TEPEZZA 1,903 / 1,851 - 1 = 2.8%; UPLIZNA 655 / 379 - 1 = 72.8%; H1 2026 262 + 335 = 597; ultra-rare 719 / 758 - 1 = -5.1%; UPLIZNA + ultra-rare 655 + 719 = 1,374. TAVNEOS H1 2026 119 + 150 = 269. Acquisitions: 13.4 + 3.9 + 27.8 = 45.1 bn; acquired products 2025 2,265 + 459 + 4,617 = 7,341, 7,341 / 36,751 = 20%. Interest 2,755 / 9,080 = 30%. Net debt 30 June 2026: 57.3 - 13.989 = 43.3 bn. Goodwill + intangibles 18,680 + 22,276 = 40,956, 40,956 / 90,586 = 45%. EPS gap 21.84 - 14.23 = 7.61. R&D 7,272 / 4,784 - 1 = 52%; 7,272 / 36,751 = 19.8%. Growth drivers 2025: Repatha 3,016 + EVENITY 2,100 + TEZSPIRE 1,478 + BLINCYTO 1,559 = 8,153 (2024: 2,222 + 1,563 + 972 + 1,216 = 5,973; 2023: 1,635 + 1,160 + 567 + 861 = 4,223; 2021: 1,117 + 530 + 0 + 472 = 2,119; 2019: 661 + 189 + 0 + 312 = 1,162); 8,153 / 5,973 - 1 = 36.5%, about 37%; 8,153 / 36,751 = 22%. Repatha 3,016 / 661 = 4.6 times, 3,016 / 2,222 - 1 = 36%; EVENITY 2,100 / 189 = 11 times; BLINCYTO 1,559 / 312 = 5.0 times. KYPROLIS 1,412 / 1,503 - 1 = -6%; KYPROLIS + Nplate 1,412 + 1,524 = 2,936, 2,936 / 6,660 = 44%; BLINCYTO + IMDELLTRA 1,559 + 627 = 2,186; Q2 2026 472 + 288 = 760. IMDELLTRA run rate 288 x 4 = 1,152, 1,152 / 6,498 = 18%. Biosimilars: 2025 AMJEVITA 597 + PAVBLU 700 + WEZLANA 273 + MVASI 771 + in other products 683 = 3,024; 3,024 / 35,148 = 8.6% of product sales; 3,024 / 36,751 = 8.2% of total revenues; PAVBLU 700 / 3,024 = 23%; AMJEVITA 597 / 761 - 1 = -22%; band 2022 1,831 / 2,177 - 1 = -16%; in other products 683 / 667 - 1 = 2%; WEZLANA and other biosimilars added (273 - 27) + (683 - 667) = 262; Q2 2026 155 + 287 + 61 + 153 + 199 = 855; Q2 2025 133 + 130 + 35 + 191 + 172 = 661; 855 / 661 - 1 = 29%; shares of total revenues 568 / 23,362 = 2.4% (2019), 2,177 / 25,979 = 8.4% (2021), 1,916 / 28,190 = 6.8% (2023). Bands 2025: general medicine and bone 3,016 + 2,100 + 4,414 + 2,084 = 11,614 (31.6%); inflammation and rare disease 2,226 + 2,265 + 1,478 + 1,903 + 1,340 + 655 + 459 + 719 = 11,045 (30.1%); oncology 1,559 + 627 + 1,175 + 1,412 + 363 + 1,524 = 6,660 (18.1%); biosimilars 3,024 (8.2%); established and other 1,389 + 435 + 353 + (1,311 - 683 = 628) + 1,603 = 4,408 (12.0%); total 36,751. 2019 bands 5,457; 5,404; 2,895; 568; 9,038; total 23,362. General medicine 11,614 / 5,457 = 2.1 times, 11,614 / 10,384 - 1 = 11.8%; inflammation 2020 7,191, 2024 10,870 / 7,535 - 1 = 44%, 2025 11,045 / 10,870 - 1 = 1.6%, non-ENBREL-Otezla 11,045 - 4,491 = 6,554; oncology 6,660 / 2,895 = 2.3 times, 6,660 / 5,685 - 1 = 17.2%; established 4,408 / 9,038 = 0.49. Q2 bands 2026 vs 2025: general medicine 953 + 714 + 759 + 352 = 2,778 vs 696 + 518 + 1,122 + 532 = 2,868, down 3%; Repatha + EVENITY 1,667 vs 1,214; denosumab 1,111 vs 1,654, down 33%; inflammation 3,167 vs 604 + 618 + 342 + 505 + 349 + 176 + 110 + 183 = 2,887, up 9.7%; oncology 1,953 vs 384 + 134 + 305 + 378 + 90 + 369 = 1,660, up 17.7%; established and other 632 + (351 - 199) + 517 = 1,301 vs 359 + 82 + 92 + (334 - 172) + 408 = 1,103, up 18%. Denosumab 2025 4,414 + 2,084 = 6,498, 6,498 / 36,751 = 17.7%; Q1 2026 727 + 411 = 1,138; H1 2026 1,486 + 763 = 2,249 vs 2,221 + 1,098 = 3,319. Neulasta 435 / 4,534 - 1 = -90%. Geography: US 25,656 / 35,148 = 73%; rest of world 9,492 / 35,148 = 27.0%; Q2 2026 2,547 / 9,537 = 26.7%; AMJEVITA 129 / 155 = 83.2%; Aranesp 258 / 352 = 73.3%; ENBREL 6 / 580 = 1.0%. Novartis-facing 2025 3,016 + 2,265 + 2,226 + 1,524 + 1,478 = 10,509, 10,509 / 36,751 = 29%. Other revenues 1,603 / 36,751 = 4.4%. Receivables 9,570 / 6,782 - 1 = 41%. Guidance midpoints: (37.0 + 38.4) / 2 = 37.7; (37.1 + 38.5) / 2 = 37.8; (38.2 + 39.4) / 2 = 38.8; non-GAAP EPS (22.30 + 23.50) / 2 = 22.90. IRS: 3.6 + 5.1 + 2.0 = 10.7 bn before interest; offsets 0.9 + 2.2 = 3.1 bn; 10.7 / 7.711 = 1.4 times 2025 net income; 10.7 / 224.15 = 4.8% of market value. Trailing free cash flow 8,100 - 2,891 + 4,966 = 10,175; 10,175 / 224,150 = 4.5%. Shares 538.8 / 629.6 - 1 = -14%. Gross margin (total revenues - cost of sales) / total revenues: (28,190 - 8,451) / 28,190 = 70.0% (2023); (33,424 - 12,858) / 33,424 = 61.5% (2024); (36,751 - 12,037) / 36,751 = 67.2% (2025). Pre-tax income 2025 7,711 + 1,265 = 8,976. Total revenues 36,751 / 21,662 = 1.70 times 2015. Market value 224.15 / 176.25 - 1 = 27% in 2026; added 224.15 - 176.25 = 47.9 bn against 176.25 - 122.45 = 53.8 bn in 2015-2025. Trailing net income 7,711 - 3,162 + 4,194 = 8,743; trailing revenue 36,751 - 17,328 + 18,672 = 38,095 - product and band totals, growth and sales deductions. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Amgen's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  9. ReportedOtezla is mainly an American business: $431 million of its $491 million in the second quarter of 2026.
    Amgen second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales performance: inflammation, rare disease and established products, and sales by region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedOtezla's second-quarter 2026 sales fell 21% to $491 million, on 9% lower net selling price and 6% lower volume.
    Amgen second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales performance: inflammation, rare disease and established products, and sales by region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026