✦ Back to Buybacks: Up to $3 Billion in 2026Narrow moat

Amgen (AMGN) — the future bets

Amgen stopped buying back shares to pay for Horizon, and its 2026 guidance allows up to $3 billion of buybacks again.

For most of its history Amgen returned cash by buying its own shares. It spent $17,794 million on repurchases in 2018 alone and $7,702 million in 20191, and its share count fell from 629.6 million at the end of 2018 to 538.8 million at the end of 202523, about 14%4.

Share repurchases ($M)17,79420187,70220196,360202202023200202402025up to 3,0002026 capAmgen Forms 10-K FY2019, FY2023 and FY2025; 2026 cap per Q2 2026 release
From $17.8 billion to nothing, and maybe back.

Horizon stopped that. Amgen made no repurchases in 2023, $200 million in 2024 and none in 20255, using its cash to repay debt instead: $5,000 million of repayments in 20256. It kept raising the dividend, to $9.66 a share declared in 20257 and $2.52 a quarter in 2026, a 6% increase8.

The 2026 guidance allows share repurchases not to exceed $3.0 billion9, and the remaining authorisation is about $6.8 billion10. None had been made by the end of the second quarter11. The cash is there: free cash flow was $4,966 million in the first half of 202612, and cash stood at $13,989 million on 30 June13.

The bet is that the balance sheet is repaired enough to return to the old pattern. Debt was still $57.3 billion in June 202614, and a $4.0 billion bond issue in February15 shows that repayment is partly refinancing.

The event to watch is the first repurchase. If Amgen buys shares in the second half of 2026 while net debt keeps falling, the Horizon purchase will have been absorbed; if it borrows to buy them, it will be returning to the habits that left its equity at $8,658 million against $90,586 million of assets16.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Buybacks allowed again; cash $14.0bn in June 2026.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Free cash flow, first half
$4,966M (H1 2026); $2,891M in H1 2025

Capacity to resume buybacks without borrowing; a fall would push repurchases back.

Source: Amgen Q2 2026 results release ↗
References
  1. ReportedIt spent $17,794 million on repurchases in 2018 alone and $7,702 million in 2019, and its share count fell from 629.6 million at the end of 2018 to 538.8 million at the end of 2025, about 14%.
    Amgen Form 10-K for fiscal 2019 - selected financial data for 2015-2019, product sales for 2017-2019 and the 2017 Tax Act charge. — FY2019 · publ. February 2020 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIt spent $17,794 million on repurchases in 2018 alone and $7,702 million in 2019, and its share count fell from 629.6 million at the end of 2018 to 538.8 million at the end of 2025, about 14%.
    Amgen Form 10-K for fiscal 2021 - sales deductions of 41%, 44% and 47% of gross product sales for 2019-2021, and the 2018-2021 share count. — FY2021 · publ. February 2022 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIt spent $17,794 million on repurchases in 2018 alone and $7,702 million in 2019, and its share count fell from 629.6 million at the end of 2018 to 538.8 million at the end of 2025, about 14%.
    Amgen Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements and notes: earnings, cash flow, debt, intangibles and impairments. — FY2025 · publ. 13 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. Moat Explorer calcIt spent $17,794 million on repurchases in 2018 alone and $7,702 million in 2019, and its share count fell from 629.6 million at the end of 2018 to 538.8 million at the end of 2025, about 14%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Amgen's reported product sales and financial statements ($ millions unless stated). Sales deductions: 2019 rebates 6,825 + chargebacks 7,090 + other 1,292 = 15,207; 2025 21,697 + 16,988 + 3,298 = 41,983; 41,983 / 35,148 = 1.19 times net product sales; implied gross product sales 35,148 + 41,983 = 77,131. Growth 2019-2025: deductions 41,983 / 15,207 = 2.76 times; net product sales 35,148 / 22,204 = 1.58 times (up 58%); rebates 21,697 / 6,825 = 3.18 times; chargebacks 16,988 / 7,090 = 2.4 times. Wholesalers 2025 gross: 26,253 + 20,986 + 12,562 = 59,801; 59,801 / 36,751 = 1.63 times total revenues; McKesson 26,253 / 36,751 = 71%. ENBREL: 2,226 / 5,433 - 1 = -59%; share of product sales 5,226 / 22,204 = 23.5% (2019), 2,226 / 35,148 = 6.3% (2025). ENBREL + Otezla 2025: 2,226 + 2,265 = 4,491; 4,491 / 36,751 = 12%. Otezla sales 2020-2025: 2,195 + 2,249 + 2,288 + 2,188 + 2,126 + 2,265 = 13,311; impairment 1,200 / 13,400 = 9%. Horizon products: 2023 448 + 272 + 65 + 164 = 949; 2024 1,851 + 1,185 + 379 + 758 = 4,173; 2025 1,903 + 1,340 + 655 + 719 = 4,617, 4,617 / 27,800 = 16.6%; Q2 2026 576 + 400 + 335 + 149 = 1,460, x4 = 5,840. TEPEZZA + KRYSTEXXA 2025 1,903 + 1,340 = 3,243; KRYSTEXXA 1,340 / 1,185 - 1 = 13.1%; TEPEZZA 1,903 / 1,851 - 1 = 2.8%; UPLIZNA 655 / 379 - 1 = 72.8%; H1 2026 262 + 335 = 597; ultra-rare 719 / 758 - 1 = -5.1%; UPLIZNA + ultra-rare 655 + 719 = 1,374. TAVNEOS H1 2026 119 + 150 = 269. Acquisitions: 13.4 + 3.9 + 27.8 = 45.1 bn; acquired products 2025 2,265 + 459 + 4,617 = 7,341, 7,341 / 36,751 = 20%. Interest 2,755 / 9,080 = 30%. Net debt 30 June 2026: 57.3 - 13.989 = 43.3 bn. Goodwill + intangibles 18,680 + 22,276 = 40,956, 40,956 / 90,586 = 45%. EPS gap 21.84 - 14.23 = 7.61. R&D 7,272 / 4,784 - 1 = 52%; 7,272 / 36,751 = 19.8%. Growth drivers 2025: Repatha 3,016 + EVENITY 2,100 + TEZSPIRE 1,478 + BLINCYTO 1,559 = 8,153 (2024: 2,222 + 1,563 + 972 + 1,216 = 5,973; 2023: 1,635 + 1,160 + 567 + 861 = 4,223; 2021: 1,117 + 530 + 0 + 472 = 2,119; 2019: 661 + 189 + 0 + 312 = 1,162); 8,153 / 5,973 - 1 = 36.5%, about 37%; 8,153 / 36,751 = 22%. Repatha 3,016 / 661 = 4.6 times, 3,016 / 2,222 - 1 = 36%; EVENITY 2,100 / 189 = 11 times; BLINCYTO 1,559 / 312 = 5.0 times. KYPROLIS 1,412 / 1,503 - 1 = -6%; KYPROLIS + Nplate 1,412 + 1,524 = 2,936, 2,936 / 6,660 = 44%; BLINCYTO + IMDELLTRA 1,559 + 627 = 2,186; Q2 2026 472 + 288 = 760. IMDELLTRA run rate 288 x 4 = 1,152, 1,152 / 6,498 = 18%. Biosimilars: 2025 AMJEVITA 597 + PAVBLU 700 + WEZLANA 273 + MVASI 771 + in other products 683 = 3,024; 3,024 / 35,148 = 8.6% of product sales; 3,024 / 36,751 = 8.2% of total revenues; PAVBLU 700 / 3,024 = 23%; AMJEVITA 597 / 761 - 1 = -22%; band 2022 1,831 / 2,177 - 1 = -16%; in other products 683 / 667 - 1 = 2%; WEZLANA and other biosimilars added (273 - 27) + (683 - 667) = 262; Q2 2026 155 + 287 + 61 + 153 + 199 = 855; Q2 2025 133 + 130 + 35 + 191 + 172 = 661; 855 / 661 - 1 = 29%; shares of total revenues 568 / 23,362 = 2.4% (2019), 2,177 / 25,979 = 8.4% (2021), 1,916 / 28,190 = 6.8% (2023). Bands 2025: general medicine and bone 3,016 + 2,100 + 4,414 + 2,084 = 11,614 (31.6%); inflammation and rare disease 2,226 + 2,265 + 1,478 + 1,903 + 1,340 + 655 + 459 + 719 = 11,045 (30.1%); oncology 1,559 + 627 + 1,175 + 1,412 + 363 + 1,524 = 6,660 (18.1%); biosimilars 3,024 (8.2%); established and other 1,389 + 435 + 353 + (1,311 - 683 = 628) + 1,603 = 4,408 (12.0%); total 36,751. 2019 bands 5,457; 5,404; 2,895; 568; 9,038; total 23,362. General medicine 11,614 / 5,457 = 2.1 times, 11,614 / 10,384 - 1 = 11.8%; inflammation 2020 7,191, 2024 10,870 / 7,535 - 1 = 44%, 2025 11,045 / 10,870 - 1 = 1.6%, non-ENBREL-Otezla 11,045 - 4,491 = 6,554; oncology 6,660 / 2,895 = 2.3 times, 6,660 / 5,685 - 1 = 17.2%; established 4,408 / 9,038 = 0.49. Q2 bands 2026 vs 2025: general medicine 953 + 714 + 759 + 352 = 2,778 vs 696 + 518 + 1,122 + 532 = 2,868, down 3%; Repatha + EVENITY 1,667 vs 1,214; denosumab 1,111 vs 1,654, down 33%; inflammation 3,167 vs 604 + 618 + 342 + 505 + 349 + 176 + 110 + 183 = 2,887, up 9.7%; oncology 1,953 vs 384 + 134 + 305 + 378 + 90 + 369 = 1,660, up 17.7%; established and other 632 + (351 - 199) + 517 = 1,301 vs 359 + 82 + 92 + (334 - 172) + 408 = 1,103, up 18%. Denosumab 2025 4,414 + 2,084 = 6,498, 6,498 / 36,751 = 17.7%; Q1 2026 727 + 411 = 1,138; H1 2026 1,486 + 763 = 2,249 vs 2,221 + 1,098 = 3,319. Neulasta 435 / 4,534 - 1 = -90%. Geography: US 25,656 / 35,148 = 73%; rest of world 9,492 / 35,148 = 27.0%; Q2 2026 2,547 / 9,537 = 26.7%; AMJEVITA 129 / 155 = 83.2%; Aranesp 258 / 352 = 73.3%; ENBREL 6 / 580 = 1.0%. Novartis-facing 2025 3,016 + 2,265 + 2,226 + 1,524 + 1,478 = 10,509, 10,509 / 36,751 = 29%. Other revenues 1,603 / 36,751 = 4.4%. Receivables 9,570 / 6,782 - 1 = 41%. Guidance midpoints: (37.0 + 38.4) / 2 = 37.7; (37.1 + 38.5) / 2 = 37.8; (38.2 + 39.4) / 2 = 38.8; non-GAAP EPS (22.30 + 23.50) / 2 = 22.90. IRS: 3.6 + 5.1 + 2.0 = 10.7 bn before interest; offsets 0.9 + 2.2 = 3.1 bn; 10.7 / 7.711 = 1.4 times 2025 net income; 10.7 / 224.15 = 4.8% of market value. Trailing free cash flow 8,100 - 2,891 + 4,966 = 10,175; 10,175 / 224,150 = 4.5%. Shares 538.8 / 629.6 - 1 = -14%. Gross margin (total revenues - cost of sales) / total revenues: (28,190 - 8,451) / 28,190 = 70.0% (2023); (33,424 - 12,858) / 33,424 = 61.5% (2024); (36,751 - 12,037) / 36,751 = 67.2% (2025). Pre-tax income 2025 7,711 + 1,265 = 8,976. Total revenues 36,751 / 21,662 = 1.70 times 2015. Market value 224.15 / 176.25 - 1 = 27% in 2026; added 224.15 - 176.25 = 47.9 bn against 176.25 - 122.45 = 53.8 bn in 2015-2025. Trailing net income 7,711 - 3,162 + 4,194 = 8,743; trailing revenue 36,751 - 17,328 + 18,672 = 38,095 - balance sheet, cash flow, tax dispute and valuation. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Amgen's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  5. ReportedAmgen made no repurchases in 2023, $200 million in 2024 and none in 2025, using its cash to repay debt instead: $5,000 million of repayments in 2025.
    Amgen Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements and notes: earnings, cash flow, debt, intangibles and impairments. — FY2025 · publ. 13 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedAmgen made no repurchases in 2023, $200 million in 2024 and none in 2025, using its cash to repay debt instead: $5,000 million of repayments in 2025.
    Amgen Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements and notes: earnings, cash flow, debt, intangibles and impairments. — FY2025 · publ. 13 February 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedIt kept raising the dividend, to $9.66 a share declared in 2025 and $2.52 a quarter in 2026, a 6% increase.
    Amgen Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements and notes: earnings, cash flow, debt, intangibles and impairments. — FY2025 · publ. 13 February 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedIt kept raising the dividend, to $9.66 a share declared in 2025 and $2.52 a quarter in 2026, a 6% increase.
    Amgen second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - financial results, margins, cash flow and 2026 guidance. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedThe 2026 guidance allows share repurchases not to exceed $3.0 billion, and the remaining authorisation is about $6.8 billion.
    Amgen second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - financial results, margins, cash flow and 2026 guidance. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedThe 2026 guidance allows share repurchases not to exceed $3.0 billion, and the remaining authorisation is about $6.8 billion.
    Amgen Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements and notes: earnings, cash flow, debt, intangibles and impairments. — FY2025 · publ. 13 February 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedNone had been made by the end of the second quarter.
    Amgen second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales performance: inflammation, rare disease and established products, and sales by region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedThe cash is there: free cash flow was $4,966 million in the first half of 2026, and cash stood at $13,989 million on 30 June.
    Amgen second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - financial results, margins, cash flow and 2026 guidance. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedThe cash is there: free cash flow was $4,966 million in the first half of 2026, and cash stood at $13,989 million on 30 June.
    Amgen Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - product sales, the TAVNEOS proceeding, the IRS dispute, the BeOne stake and the balance sheet. — Q2 2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
  14. ReportedDebt was still $57.3 billion in June 2026, and a $4.0 billion bond issue in February shows that repayment is partly refinancing.
    Amgen second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales performance: inflammation, rare disease and established products, and sales by region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  15. ReportedDebt was still $57.3 billion in June 2026, and a $4.0 billion bond issue in February shows that repayment is partly refinancing.
    Amgen Form 8-K, Item 1.01 - issue of $4.0 billion of senior notes in February 2026. — February 2026 · publ. 19 February 2026 · source ↗
  16. ReportedIf Amgen buys shares in the second half of 2026 while net debt keeps falling, the Horizon purchase will have been absorbed; if it borrows to buy them, it will be returning to the habits that left its equity at $8,658 million against $90,586 million of assets.
    Amgen Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements and notes: earnings, cash flow, debt, intangibles and impairments. — FY2025 · publ. 13 February 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026