✦ The Future BetsNarrow moat

Amgen (AMGN) — the future bets

Amgen's bets range from a first-in-class autoimmune drug with a positive Phase 3 to an obesity drug whose headline data disappointed investors twice.

Amgen's next decade depends on replacing the denosumab and ENBREL sales it is losing, and its four largest bets are uneven. The best known, MariTide in obesity, produced weight loss of up to about 20% in its Phase 2 completers1 and up to 16% on the full analysis2; the shares fell 12% after the first headline3. It is now in nine listed Phase 3 studies with no disclosed readout date4.

The four betsMariTide (obesity)up to 16% weight loss, full Phase 2 analysisDazodalibep (Sjogren)Phase 3 met primary endpoint, n=621IMDELLTRA (lung cancer)$627M in 2025; +115% in Q2 2026Buybacksup to $3.0bn allowed in 2026Amgen releases 2025-2026; BioPharma Dive, June 2025
Four bets at four stages.

The most concrete new result is dazodalibep. In September 2026 its first Phase 3 study in Sjögren's disease met its primary endpoint5, in a disease for which there are currently no FDA-approved medicines6.

The fastest-growing bet is already on sale. IMDELLTRA, the second drug from Amgen's BiTE platform, sold $627 million in its first full year7 and grew 115% in the second quarter of 20268.

The fourth bet is financial. Amgen has not bought back shares since 2024 while it paid down Horizon's debt; its 2026 guidance allows repurchases of up to $3.0 billion9, and a return to buybacks would signal that the balance sheet is repaired.

Behind these sit the pipeline cuts of 2026, rocatinlimab returned and AMG 513 stopped1011, which make the remaining bets more important.

The spending follows the bets. Research and development expense rose 7% in the second quarter of 2026, driven by higher spend in later-stage clinical programmes, primarily those related to MariTide12, after $7,272 million in 202513. Capital expenditure is guided to about $2.6 billion for 202614, against $1,858 million in 202515.

The test for the whole branch is whether new products replace the denosumab decline. Prolia and XGEVA sold $6,498 million in 202516; if IMDELLTRA, dazodalibep and MariTide together are not on course to match that by the end of the decade, Amgen will have to buy its next growth again.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Dazodalibep Phase 3 positive; IMDELLTRA up 115%.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
IMDELLTRA sales, latest quarter
$288M, +115% (Q2 2026)

The one bet already on sale; a sharp slowdown would leave the replacement to unapproved drugs.

Source: Amgen Q2 2026 results release ↗
✦ Future bets — beyond today's moat
✦ FUTURE BET 01
MariTide: Twenty Percent, Then Sixteen
MariTide produced up to 20% weight loss in completers and up to 16% on the full count, and Amgen's shares fell after both.
✦ FUTURE BET 02
Dazodalibep and Sjögren's Disease
Dazodalibep met its Phase 3 endpoint in a common autoimmune disease with no approved medicine, the kind of market Amgen's older drugs no longer have.
✦ FUTURE BET 03
IMDELLTRA: The Second BiTE
IMDELLTRA grew 115% in the second quarter of 2026 and shows that BLINCYTO's platform can produce a second successful drug.
✦ FUTURE BET 04
Back to Buybacks: Up to $3 Billion in 2026
Amgen stopped buying back shares to pay for Horizon, and its 2026 guidance allows up to $3 billion of buybacks again.
References
  1. ReportedThe best known, MariTide in obesity, produced weight loss of up to about 20% in its Phase 2 completers and up to 16% on the full analysis; the shares fell 12% after the first headline.
    Amgen Form 10-K for fiscal 2024 - the MariTide Phase 2 results, the Horizon inventory step-up and 2024 financial statements. — FY2024 · publ. February 2025 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe best known, MariTide in obesity, produced weight loss of up to about 20% in its Phase 2 completers and up to 16% on the full analysis; the shares fell 12% after the first headline.
    BioPharma Dive on the full MariTide Phase 2 data at the American Diabetes Association meeting - average weight loss of up to 16% and a 4% share fall. — June 2025 · publ. 23 June 2025 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe best known, MariTide in obesity, produced weight loss of up to about 20% in its Phase 2 completers and up to 16% on the full analysis; the shares fell 12% after the first headline.
    Yahoo Finance / Investing.com - Amgen shares dropped 12% after the MariTide study results. — November 2024 · publ. 26 November 2024 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIt is now in nine listed Phase 3 studies with no disclosed readout date.
    Amgen second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales performance: inflammation, rare disease and established products, and sales by region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedIn September 2026 its first Phase 3 study in Sjögren's disease met its primary endpoint, in a disease for which there are currently no FDA-approved medicines.
    Amgen press release - positive topline Phase 3 results for dazodalibep in moderate-to-severe systemic Sjogren's disease. — September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIn September 2026 its first Phase 3 study in Sjögren's disease met its primary endpoint, in a disease for which there are currently no FDA-approved medicines.
    Amgen press release - positive topline Phase 3 results for dazodalibep in moderate-to-severe systemic Sjogren's disease. — September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedIMDELLTRA, the second drug from Amgen's BiTE platform, sold $627 million in its first full year and grew 115% in the second quarter of 2026.
    Amgen fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales for 2024-2025, non-GAAP EPS and 2026 guidance. — FY2025 · publ. 3 February 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedIMDELLTRA, the second drug from Amgen's BiTE platform, sold $627 million in its first full year and grew 115% in the second quarter of 2026.
    Amgen second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales performance: oncology. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedAmgen has not bought back shares since 2024 while it paid down Horizon's debt; its 2026 guidance allows repurchases of up to $3.0 billion, and a return to buybacks would signal that the balance sheet is repaired.
    Amgen second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - financial results, margins, cash flow and 2026 guidance. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedBehind these sit the pipeline cuts of 2026, rocatinlimab returned and AMG 513 stopped, which make the remaining bets more important.
    Amgen Form 8-K, Item 1.02 - termination of the rocatinlimab collaboration with Kyowa Kirin. — January 2026 · publ. 30 January 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedBehind these sit the pipeline cuts of 2026, rocatinlimab returned and AMG 513 stopped, which make the remaining bets more important.
    Amgen second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - pipeline and clinical updates. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedResearch and development expense rose 7% in the second quarter of 2026, driven by higher spend in later-stage clinical programmes, primarily those related to MariTide, after $7,272 million in 2025.
    Amgen second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - pipeline and clinical updates. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedResearch and development expense rose 7% in the second quarter of 2026, driven by higher spend in later-stage clinical programmes, primarily those related to MariTide, after $7,272 million in 2025.
    Amgen Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements and notes: earnings, cash flow, debt, intangibles and impairments. — FY2025 · publ. 13 February 2026 · source ↗
  14. ReportedCapital expenditure is guided to about $2.6 billion for 2026, against $1,858 million in 2025.
    Amgen second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales performance: inflammation, rare disease and established products, and sales by region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  15. ReportedCapital expenditure is guided to about $2.6 billion for 2026, against $1,858 million in 2025.
    Amgen Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements and notes: earnings, cash flow, debt, intangibles and impairments. — FY2025 · publ. 13 February 2026 · source ↗
  16. Moat Explorer calcProlia and XGEVA sold $6,498 million in 2025; if IMDELLTRA, dazodalibep and MariTide together are not on course to match that by the end of the decade, Amgen will have to buy its next growth again.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Amgen's reported product sales and financial statements ($ millions unless stated). Sales deductions: 2019 rebates 6,825 + chargebacks 7,090 + other 1,292 = 15,207; 2025 21,697 + 16,988 + 3,298 = 41,983; 41,983 / 35,148 = 1.19 times net product sales; implied gross product sales 35,148 + 41,983 = 77,131. Growth 2019-2025: deductions 41,983 / 15,207 = 2.76 times; net product sales 35,148 / 22,204 = 1.58 times (up 58%); rebates 21,697 / 6,825 = 3.18 times; chargebacks 16,988 / 7,090 = 2.4 times. Wholesalers 2025 gross: 26,253 + 20,986 + 12,562 = 59,801; 59,801 / 36,751 = 1.63 times total revenues; McKesson 26,253 / 36,751 = 71%. ENBREL: 2,226 / 5,433 - 1 = -59%; share of product sales 5,226 / 22,204 = 23.5% (2019), 2,226 / 35,148 = 6.3% (2025). ENBREL + Otezla 2025: 2,226 + 2,265 = 4,491; 4,491 / 36,751 = 12%. Otezla sales 2020-2025: 2,195 + 2,249 + 2,288 + 2,188 + 2,126 + 2,265 = 13,311; impairment 1,200 / 13,400 = 9%. Horizon products: 2023 448 + 272 + 65 + 164 = 949; 2024 1,851 + 1,185 + 379 + 758 = 4,173; 2025 1,903 + 1,340 + 655 + 719 = 4,617, 4,617 / 27,800 = 16.6%; Q2 2026 576 + 400 + 335 + 149 = 1,460, x4 = 5,840. TEPEZZA + KRYSTEXXA 2025 1,903 + 1,340 = 3,243; KRYSTEXXA 1,340 / 1,185 - 1 = 13.1%; TEPEZZA 1,903 / 1,851 - 1 = 2.8%; UPLIZNA 655 / 379 - 1 = 72.8%; H1 2026 262 + 335 = 597; ultra-rare 719 / 758 - 1 = -5.1%; UPLIZNA + ultra-rare 655 + 719 = 1,374. TAVNEOS H1 2026 119 + 150 = 269. Acquisitions: 13.4 + 3.9 + 27.8 = 45.1 bn; acquired products 2025 2,265 + 459 + 4,617 = 7,341, 7,341 / 36,751 = 20%. Interest 2,755 / 9,080 = 30%. Net debt 30 June 2026: 57.3 - 13.989 = 43.3 bn. Goodwill + intangibles 18,680 + 22,276 = 40,956, 40,956 / 90,586 = 45%. EPS gap 21.84 - 14.23 = 7.61. R&D 7,272 / 4,784 - 1 = 52%; 7,272 / 36,751 = 19.8%. Growth drivers 2025: Repatha 3,016 + EVENITY 2,100 + TEZSPIRE 1,478 + BLINCYTO 1,559 = 8,153 (2024: 2,222 + 1,563 + 972 + 1,216 = 5,973; 2023: 1,635 + 1,160 + 567 + 861 = 4,223; 2021: 1,117 + 530 + 0 + 472 = 2,119; 2019: 661 + 189 + 0 + 312 = 1,162); 8,153 / 5,973 - 1 = 36.5%, about 37%; 8,153 / 36,751 = 22%. Repatha 3,016 / 661 = 4.6 times, 3,016 / 2,222 - 1 = 36%; EVENITY 2,100 / 189 = 11 times; BLINCYTO 1,559 / 312 = 5.0 times. KYPROLIS 1,412 / 1,503 - 1 = -6%; KYPROLIS + Nplate 1,412 + 1,524 = 2,936, 2,936 / 6,660 = 44%; BLINCYTO + IMDELLTRA 1,559 + 627 = 2,186; Q2 2026 472 + 288 = 760. IMDELLTRA run rate 288 x 4 = 1,152, 1,152 / 6,498 = 18%. Biosimilars: 2025 AMJEVITA 597 + PAVBLU 700 + WEZLANA 273 + MVASI 771 + in other products 683 = 3,024; 3,024 / 35,148 = 8.6% of product sales; 3,024 / 36,751 = 8.2% of total revenues; PAVBLU 700 / 3,024 = 23%; AMJEVITA 597 / 761 - 1 = -22%; band 2022 1,831 / 2,177 - 1 = -16%; in other products 683 / 667 - 1 = 2%; WEZLANA and other biosimilars added (273 - 27) + (683 - 667) = 262; Q2 2026 155 + 287 + 61 + 153 + 199 = 855; Q2 2025 133 + 130 + 35 + 191 + 172 = 661; 855 / 661 - 1 = 29%; shares of total revenues 568 / 23,362 = 2.4% (2019), 2,177 / 25,979 = 8.4% (2021), 1,916 / 28,190 = 6.8% (2023). Bands 2025: general medicine and bone 3,016 + 2,100 + 4,414 + 2,084 = 11,614 (31.6%); inflammation and rare disease 2,226 + 2,265 + 1,478 + 1,903 + 1,340 + 655 + 459 + 719 = 11,045 (30.1%); oncology 1,559 + 627 + 1,175 + 1,412 + 363 + 1,524 = 6,660 (18.1%); biosimilars 3,024 (8.2%); established and other 1,389 + 435 + 353 + (1,311 - 683 = 628) + 1,603 = 4,408 (12.0%); total 36,751. 2019 bands 5,457; 5,404; 2,895; 568; 9,038; total 23,362. General medicine 11,614 / 5,457 = 2.1 times, 11,614 / 10,384 - 1 = 11.8%; inflammation 2020 7,191, 2024 10,870 / 7,535 - 1 = 44%, 2025 11,045 / 10,870 - 1 = 1.6%, non-ENBREL-Otezla 11,045 - 4,491 = 6,554; oncology 6,660 / 2,895 = 2.3 times, 6,660 / 5,685 - 1 = 17.2%; established 4,408 / 9,038 = 0.49. Q2 bands 2026 vs 2025: general medicine 953 + 714 + 759 + 352 = 2,778 vs 696 + 518 + 1,122 + 532 = 2,868, down 3%; Repatha + EVENITY 1,667 vs 1,214; denosumab 1,111 vs 1,654, down 33%; inflammation 3,167 vs 604 + 618 + 342 + 505 + 349 + 176 + 110 + 183 = 2,887, up 9.7%; oncology 1,953 vs 384 + 134 + 305 + 378 + 90 + 369 = 1,660, up 17.7%; established and other 632 + (351 - 199) + 517 = 1,301 vs 359 + 82 + 92 + (334 - 172) + 408 = 1,103, up 18%. Denosumab 2025 4,414 + 2,084 = 6,498, 6,498 / 36,751 = 17.7%; Q1 2026 727 + 411 = 1,138; H1 2026 1,486 + 763 = 2,249 vs 2,221 + 1,098 = 3,319. Neulasta 435 / 4,534 - 1 = -90%. Geography: US 25,656 / 35,148 = 73%; rest of world 9,492 / 35,148 = 27.0%; Q2 2026 2,547 / 9,537 = 26.7%; AMJEVITA 129 / 155 = 83.2%; Aranesp 258 / 352 = 73.3%; ENBREL 6 / 580 = 1.0%. Novartis-facing 2025 3,016 + 2,265 + 2,226 + 1,524 + 1,478 = 10,509, 10,509 / 36,751 = 29%. Other revenues 1,603 / 36,751 = 4.4%. Receivables 9,570 / 6,782 - 1 = 41%. Guidance midpoints: (37.0 + 38.4) / 2 = 37.7; (37.1 + 38.5) / 2 = 37.8; (38.2 + 39.4) / 2 = 38.8; non-GAAP EPS (22.30 + 23.50) / 2 = 22.90. IRS: 3.6 + 5.1 + 2.0 = 10.7 bn before interest; offsets 0.9 + 2.2 = 3.1 bn; 10.7 / 7.711 = 1.4 times 2025 net income; 10.7 / 224.15 = 4.8% of market value. Trailing free cash flow 8,100 - 2,891 + 4,966 = 10,175; 10,175 / 224,150 = 4.5%. Shares 538.8 / 629.6 - 1 = -14%. Gross margin (total revenues - cost of sales) / total revenues: (28,190 - 8,451) / 28,190 = 70.0% (2023); (33,424 - 12,858) / 33,424 = 61.5% (2024); (36,751 - 12,037) / 36,751 = 67.2% (2025). Pre-tax income 2025 7,711 + 1,265 = 8,976. Total revenues 36,751 / 21,662 = 1.70 times 2015. Market value 224.15 / 176.25 - 1 = 27% in 2026; added 224.15 - 176.25 = 47.9 bn against 176.25 - 122.45 = 53.8 bn in 2015-2025. Trailing net income 7,711 - 3,162 + 4,194 = 8,743; trailing revenue 36,751 - 17,328 + 18,672 = 38,095 - revenue bands, biosimilars and denosumab. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Amgen's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026