Replacing Pneumovax With CapvaxiveNarrow moat

Merck & Co. (MRK) — moat facet

Merck's pneumococcal sales doubled as Capvaxive and Vaxneuvance replaced Pneumovax, but in children the newer vaccine is already shrinking.

Merck is replacing a declining vaccine with two newer ones. Pneumovax 23, its long-standing pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine, sold $893 million in 2021 and $166 million in 202512, a fall of about 81%3.

Pneumococcal vaccine sales, 2025 ($M)825Vaxneuvance759Capvaxive166Pneumovax 23Merck Form 10-K FY2025, product sales note
The new pair outsell the old vaccine ninefold.

The successors are growing faster than the old product is falling. Vaxneuvance, a conjugate vaccine used mainly in children, went from $3 million in 2021 to $825 million in 202545. Capvaxive, an adult vaccine launched in 2024, sold $97 million that year and $759 million in 20256. Together the three sold about $1,750 million in 20257, about double Pneumovax alone in 2021.

This is what a vaccine moat looks like when it works: a maker with the plants and the clinical programme builds the next generation before the old one fades. It is also a market with a large incumbent, Pfizer, discussed on the Competitors page.

The quarter shows the split. In the second quarter of 2026 Capvaxive sold $184 million, up 42%, while Vaxneuvance fell 35% to $148 million8. The adult product is taking share; the paediatric one is losing it.

Capvaxive's growth is broadening beyond the United States. Merck attributes its 42% second-quarter increase primarily to launch uptake in several international markets, particularly in Asia Pacific and Europe, as well as in the United States9. An adult vaccine sold in many markets is less exposed to any one country's recommendations than a paediatric one.

Pneumococcal vaccines are a growing narrow franchise for Merck, not a dominant one. Capvaxive's growth, 42% in the second quarter of 202610, is the figure to follow; if it slows below 20% within two years, the adult market will have settled with Merck in a minority position.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Capvaxive up 42% in Q2 2026; the three products about $1.75bn in 2025.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Capvaxive sales, latest quarter
$184M, +42% (Q2 2026)

The adult vaccine's momentum; growth below 20% would mean the market settled with Merck in a minority position.

Source: Merck Q2 2026 results release ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
Vaxneuvance Fell 35% in a Quarter
Vaxneuvance, Merck's paediatric pneumococcal vaccine, lost 35% of its quarterly sales in a year.
References
  1. ReportedPneumovax 23, its long-standing pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine, sold $893 million in 2021 and $166 million in 2025, a fall of about 81%.
    Merck & Co. Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - vaccines and China: Gardasil, the childhood and pneumococcal vaccines, and sales in China. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedPneumovax 23, its long-standing pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine, sold $893 million in 2021 and $166 million in 2025, a fall of about 81%.
    Merck & Co. Form 10-K for fiscal 2023 - product sales for 2021-2023, the Prometheus, Daiichi Sankyo and Imago charges, impairments, receivables concentration and the Zhifei distribution arrangement in China. — FY2023 · publ. February 2024 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcPneumovax 23, its long-standing pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine, sold $893 million in 2021 and $166 million in 2025, a fall of about 81%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Merck's reported sales, segment and financial statement figures ($ millions unless stated). Lines 2025: Keytruda 31,641 + Keytruda Qlex 40 = 31,681; other pharmaceutical 58,142 - 31,681 - 5,233 = 21,228; Animal Health 6,354; other revenue 515; total 31,681 + 5,233 + 21,228 + 6,354 + 515 = 65,011. 2024: 29,482; 57,400 - 29,482 - 8,583 = 19,335. 2023: 53,583 - 25,011 - 8,886 = 19,686. 2022: 52,005 - 20,937 - 6,897 = 24,171. 2021: 42,754 - 17,186 - 5,673 = 19,895. Everything else 2025: 65,011 - 31,681 = 33,330. Keytruda share of sales: 11,084 / 39,121 = 28.3% (2019, continuing basis); 17,186 / 48,704 = 35.3% (2021); 25,011 / 60,115 = 41.6% (2023); 31,681 / 65,011 = 48.7% (2025); Q2 2026 8,366 / 16,607 = 50.4%. Keytruda and Gardasil Q2 2026 (8,366 + 1,169) / 16,607 = 9,535 / 16,607 = 57.4%. Qlex 463 / 8,366 = 5.5%. Keytruda growth: 31,641 / 29,482 - 1 = 7.3% (2025); 29,482 / 25,011 - 1 = 17.9% (2024); 31,641 / 17,186 = 1.84, compound (1.84)^(1/4) - 1 = 16.5% a year; 31,641 / 11,084 = 2.85 (2019-2025). US share of Keytruda 18,829 / 31,641 = 59.5%. International Keytruda 12,812 / 11,610 - 1 = 10.4%; US Keytruda 18,829 / 17,872 - 1 = 5.4%. US Keytruda share of total sales 18,829 / 65,011 = 29.0%. Royalty: 2.5% x 31,681 = 792; 6.5% x 31,681 = 2,059. Gardasil US royalty 7% x 2,641 = 185. Winrevair royalty 22% x 1,443 = 317; 22% x 419 = 92; Winrevair Q2 2026 588 x 4 = 2,352, 22% x 2,352 = 517. Segment margins: Pharmaceutical 45,754 / 58,142 = 78.7% (2025); Q2 2026 11,612 / 14,760 = 78.7% (recast basis). Animal Health 2,131 / 6,354 = 33.5% (2025); 1,938 / 5,877 = 33.0% (2024); 1,737 / 5,625 = 30.9% (2023); 1,963 / 5,550 = 35.4% (2022); 1,950 / 5,568 = 35.0% (2021); Q2 2026 636 / 1,775 = 35.8%. Unallocated research 14,987 / 58,142 = 25.8%; Animal Health research 448 / 6,354 = 7.1%. Animal Health segment profit 2,131 / 45,754 = 4.7% of Pharmaceutical. Gardasil: international 2,592 / 6,158 - 1 = -57.9%; US 2,641 / 2,083 - 1 = 26.8%; share 5,233 / 65,011 = 8.0%; share of sales 2021 5,673 / 48,704 = 11.6%, 2022 6,897 / 59,283 = 11.6%, 2023 8,886 / 60,115 = 14.8%, 2024 8,583 / 64,168 = 13.4%; Q2 2026 1,169 x 4 = 4,676. Vaccines H1 2026 2,314 + 2,361 = 4,675; H1 2025 2,607 + 2,370 = 4,977; 4,675 / 4,977 - 1 = -6.1%. Childhood vaccines growth 2,368 / 2,241 - 1 = 5.7%; 2,485 / 2,368 - 1 = 4.9%; 2,451 / 2,485 - 1 = -1.4%. Pneumococcal: Pneumovax 166 / 893 - 1 = -81%; 825 + 759 + 166 = 1,750; 1,750 / 893 = 2.0; (825 + 759) / 166 = 9.5; Capvaxive + Vaxneuvance 759 + 825 = 1,584; 1,584 / 6,494 = 24.4% of Prevnar. Animal Health: livestock 3,896 / 6,354 = 61.3%; livestock growth 3,300 / 3,295 - 1 = 0.2%, 3,337 / 3,300 - 1 = 1.1%, 3,462 / 3,337 - 1 = 3.7%, 3,896 / 3,462 - 1 = 12.5%; companion 2,458 / 2,415 - 1 = 1.8%, 2,458 / 2,273 - 1 = 8.1%; companion excluding Bravecto 2,458 - 1,100 = 1,358; rest of Animal Health 6,354 - 1,100 = 5,254; Bravecto 359 / 335 - 1 = 7%. Segment 6,354 / 5,877 - 1 = 8.1%; 5,625 / 5,568 - 1 = 1.0%; Q2 2026 1,775 / 1,646 - 1 = 7.8%; compound (6,354 / 5,568)^(1/4) - 1 = 3.4% a year; share 6,354 / 65,011 = 9.8%; 6,354 / 31,681 = 0.20 of Keytruda; 6,354 / 9,467 = 67% of Zoetis; Zoetis 9,467 / 9,256 - 1 = 2.3%. Competitors: Keytruda 31,641 / Opdivo 10,049 = 3.1. Geography: US 36,510 / 65,011 = 56.2%; China 1,939 / 6,802 - 1 = -71%; China share 4,378 / 48,704 = 9.0% (2021), 6,802 / 60,115 = 11.3% (2023), 5,494 / 64,168 = 8.6% (2024), 1,939 / 65,011 = 3.0% (2025); other regions 65,011 - 36,510 - 14,580 - 2,711 - 1,939 = 9,271. Wholesaler receivables 22% + 21% + 13% = 56% (2025); 21 + 21 + 13 = 55 (2024); 21 + 20 + 14 = 55 (2023). Januvia and Janumet: 3,324 + 1,964 = 5,288 (2021); 2,189 + 1,177 = 3,366 (2023); 1,334 + 935 = 2,269 (2024); 1,604 + 940 = 2,544 (2025). Newer products Q2 2026: 588 + 271 + 204 + 184 = 1,247; 1,247 / 8,366 = 14.9%. Bridion 1,841 / 4 = 460 a quarter. Other pharmaceutical Q2 2026 14,760 - 8,366 - 1,169 = 5,225; Q2 2025 14,050 - 7,956 - 1,126 = 4,968; 5,225 / 4,968 - 1 = 5.2%; 2025 share 21,228 / 65,011 = 32.7%. Research: 30,531 / 60,115 = 50.8% of sales (2023). Charges 2026 9.0 + 5.7 = 14.7 bn; per share 3.62 + 2.31 = 5.93. Ohtuvayre 204 x 4 = 816; 12,100 / 816 = 14.8. Tax guidance midpoints (23.5 + 24.5) / 2 = 24.0; (35.0 + 36.0) / 2 = 35.5. Balance sheet: net debt end-2025 2,589 + 46,750 - 14,565 = 34,774; end-2024 2,649 + 34,462 - 13,242 - 447 = 23,422; end-2023 1,372 + 33,683 - 6,841 - 252 = 27,962; 30 June 2026 2,825 + 51,081 - 6,849 - 292 = 46,765, cash and short-term investments 6,849 + 292 = 7,141; net debt to equity 34,774 / 52,606 = 0.66; 46,765 / 41,933 = 1.1. Net income 2023-2025 365 + 17,117 + 18,254 = 35,736. Valuation: year-end 2025 market value 261.26 bn / net income 18.254 bn = 14.3; free cash flow 2025 16,472 - 4,112 = 12,360; 12,360 / 365,090 = 3.4%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: sales 65,011 - 31,335 + 32,893 = 66,569; net income 18,254 - 9,506 - 5,575 = 3,173. EPS guidance midpoints (5.00 + 5.15) / 2 = 5.075; (5.04 + 5.16) / 2 = 5.10; (2.66 + 2.76) / 2 = 2.71. Protection from 2026: 2043 - 2026 = 17 years; 2028 - 2026 = 2 years. Year-end P/E = market value / net income: 147.55 / 4.442 = 33.2 (2015); 162.31 / 3.920 = 41.4 (2016); 153.30 / 2.394 = 64.0 (2017); 198.69 / 6.220 = 31.9 (2018); 231.56 / 9.843 = 23.5 (2019); 206.96 / 7.067 = 29.3 (2020); 193.59 / 13.049 = 14.8 (2021); 281.30 / 14.519 = 19.4 (2022); 276.26 / 0.365 = 757 (2023); 251.65 / 17.117 = 14.7 (2024); 261.26 / 18.254 = 14.3 (2025); 365.09 / 3.173 = 115.1 (TTM). Return on average equity 2025: 18,254 / ((52,606 + 46,313) / 2) = 18,254 / 49,460 = 36.9%. Gross profit 2025 65,011 - 16,382 = 48,629; 48,629 / 65,011 = 74.8%; royalty 792 / 16,382 = 4.8% of cost of sales. Keytruda increase 2021-2025 31,681 - 17,186 = 14,495; sales increase 65,011 - 48,704 = 16,307. US sales 36,510 / 28,480 - 1 = 28%. Pharmaceutical margin 2021 30,977 / 42,754 = 72.5%. Livestock less companion 3,295 - 2,273 = 1,022 (2021); 3,896 - 2,458 = 1,438 (2025). Prevnar 6,494 / Vaxneuvance 825 = 7.9. Animal Health 2025 6,354 against Keytruda franchise Q2 2026 8,366 - product and segment totals, growth and royalties. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Merck's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, results releases, the Bristol Myers Squibb, Pfizer and Zoetis 10-Ks and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  4. ReportedVaxneuvance, a conjugate vaccine used mainly in children, went from $3 million in 2021 to $825 million in 2025.
    Merck & Co. Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - vaccines and China: Gardasil, the childhood and pneumococcal vaccines, and sales in China. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedVaxneuvance, a conjugate vaccine used mainly in children, went from $3 million in 2021 to $825 million in 2025.
    Merck & Co. Form 10-K for fiscal 2023 - product sales for 2021-2023, the Prometheus, Daiichi Sankyo and Imago charges, impairments, receivables concentration and the Zhifei distribution arrangement in China. — FY2023 · publ. February 2024 · source ↗
  6. ReportedCapvaxive, an adult vaccine launched in 2024, sold $97 million that year and $759 million in 2025.
    Merck & Co. Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - vaccines and China: Gardasil, the childhood and pneumococcal vaccines, and sales in China. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  7. Moat Explorer calcTogether the three sold about $1,750 million in 2025, about double Pneumovax alone in 2021.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Merck's reported sales, segment and financial statement figures ($ millions unless stated). Lines 2025: Keytruda 31,641 + Keytruda Qlex 40 = 31,681; other pharmaceutical 58,142 - 31,681 - 5,233 = 21,228; Animal Health 6,354; other revenue 515; total 31,681 + 5,233 + 21,228 + 6,354 + 515 = 65,011. 2024: 29,482; 57,400 - 29,482 - 8,583 = 19,335. 2023: 53,583 - 25,011 - 8,886 = 19,686. 2022: 52,005 - 20,937 - 6,897 = 24,171. 2021: 42,754 - 17,186 - 5,673 = 19,895. Everything else 2025: 65,011 - 31,681 = 33,330. Keytruda share of sales: 11,084 / 39,121 = 28.3% (2019, continuing basis); 17,186 / 48,704 = 35.3% (2021); 25,011 / 60,115 = 41.6% (2023); 31,681 / 65,011 = 48.7% (2025); Q2 2026 8,366 / 16,607 = 50.4%. Keytruda and Gardasil Q2 2026 (8,366 + 1,169) / 16,607 = 9,535 / 16,607 = 57.4%. Qlex 463 / 8,366 = 5.5%. Keytruda growth: 31,641 / 29,482 - 1 = 7.3% (2025); 29,482 / 25,011 - 1 = 17.9% (2024); 31,641 / 17,186 = 1.84, compound (1.84)^(1/4) - 1 = 16.5% a year; 31,641 / 11,084 = 2.85 (2019-2025). US share of Keytruda 18,829 / 31,641 = 59.5%. International Keytruda 12,812 / 11,610 - 1 = 10.4%; US Keytruda 18,829 / 17,872 - 1 = 5.4%. US Keytruda share of total sales 18,829 / 65,011 = 29.0%. Royalty: 2.5% x 31,681 = 792; 6.5% x 31,681 = 2,059. Gardasil US royalty 7% x 2,641 = 185. Winrevair royalty 22% x 1,443 = 317; 22% x 419 = 92; Winrevair Q2 2026 588 x 4 = 2,352, 22% x 2,352 = 517. Segment margins: Pharmaceutical 45,754 / 58,142 = 78.7% (2025); Q2 2026 11,612 / 14,760 = 78.7% (recast basis). Animal Health 2,131 / 6,354 = 33.5% (2025); 1,938 / 5,877 = 33.0% (2024); 1,737 / 5,625 = 30.9% (2023); 1,963 / 5,550 = 35.4% (2022); 1,950 / 5,568 = 35.0% (2021); Q2 2026 636 / 1,775 = 35.8%. Unallocated research 14,987 / 58,142 = 25.8%; Animal Health research 448 / 6,354 = 7.1%. Animal Health segment profit 2,131 / 45,754 = 4.7% of Pharmaceutical. Gardasil: international 2,592 / 6,158 - 1 = -57.9%; US 2,641 / 2,083 - 1 = 26.8%; share 5,233 / 65,011 = 8.0%; share of sales 2021 5,673 / 48,704 = 11.6%, 2022 6,897 / 59,283 = 11.6%, 2023 8,886 / 60,115 = 14.8%, 2024 8,583 / 64,168 = 13.4%; Q2 2026 1,169 x 4 = 4,676. Vaccines H1 2026 2,314 + 2,361 = 4,675; H1 2025 2,607 + 2,370 = 4,977; 4,675 / 4,977 - 1 = -6.1%. Childhood vaccines growth 2,368 / 2,241 - 1 = 5.7%; 2,485 / 2,368 - 1 = 4.9%; 2,451 / 2,485 - 1 = -1.4%. Pneumococcal: Pneumovax 166 / 893 - 1 = -81%; 825 + 759 + 166 = 1,750; 1,750 / 893 = 2.0; (825 + 759) / 166 = 9.5; Capvaxive + Vaxneuvance 759 + 825 = 1,584; 1,584 / 6,494 = 24.4% of Prevnar. Animal Health: livestock 3,896 / 6,354 = 61.3%; livestock growth 3,300 / 3,295 - 1 = 0.2%, 3,337 / 3,300 - 1 = 1.1%, 3,462 / 3,337 - 1 = 3.7%, 3,896 / 3,462 - 1 = 12.5%; companion 2,458 / 2,415 - 1 = 1.8%, 2,458 / 2,273 - 1 = 8.1%; companion excluding Bravecto 2,458 - 1,100 = 1,358; rest of Animal Health 6,354 - 1,100 = 5,254; Bravecto 359 / 335 - 1 = 7%. Segment 6,354 / 5,877 - 1 = 8.1%; 5,625 / 5,568 - 1 = 1.0%; Q2 2026 1,775 / 1,646 - 1 = 7.8%; compound (6,354 / 5,568)^(1/4) - 1 = 3.4% a year; share 6,354 / 65,011 = 9.8%; 6,354 / 31,681 = 0.20 of Keytruda; 6,354 / 9,467 = 67% of Zoetis; Zoetis 9,467 / 9,256 - 1 = 2.3%. Competitors: Keytruda 31,641 / Opdivo 10,049 = 3.1. Geography: US 36,510 / 65,011 = 56.2%; China 1,939 / 6,802 - 1 = -71%; China share 4,378 / 48,704 = 9.0% (2021), 6,802 / 60,115 = 11.3% (2023), 5,494 / 64,168 = 8.6% (2024), 1,939 / 65,011 = 3.0% (2025); other regions 65,011 - 36,510 - 14,580 - 2,711 - 1,939 = 9,271. Wholesaler receivables 22% + 21% + 13% = 56% (2025); 21 + 21 + 13 = 55 (2024); 21 + 20 + 14 = 55 (2023). Januvia and Janumet: 3,324 + 1,964 = 5,288 (2021); 2,189 + 1,177 = 3,366 (2023); 1,334 + 935 = 2,269 (2024); 1,604 + 940 = 2,544 (2025). Newer products Q2 2026: 588 + 271 + 204 + 184 = 1,247; 1,247 / 8,366 = 14.9%. Bridion 1,841 / 4 = 460 a quarter. Other pharmaceutical Q2 2026 14,760 - 8,366 - 1,169 = 5,225; Q2 2025 14,050 - 7,956 - 1,126 = 4,968; 5,225 / 4,968 - 1 = 5.2%; 2025 share 21,228 / 65,011 = 32.7%. Research: 30,531 / 60,115 = 50.8% of sales (2023). Charges 2026 9.0 + 5.7 = 14.7 bn; per share 3.62 + 2.31 = 5.93. Ohtuvayre 204 x 4 = 816; 12,100 / 816 = 14.8. Tax guidance midpoints (23.5 + 24.5) / 2 = 24.0; (35.0 + 36.0) / 2 = 35.5. Balance sheet: net debt end-2025 2,589 + 46,750 - 14,565 = 34,774; end-2024 2,649 + 34,462 - 13,242 - 447 = 23,422; end-2023 1,372 + 33,683 - 6,841 - 252 = 27,962; 30 June 2026 2,825 + 51,081 - 6,849 - 292 = 46,765, cash and short-term investments 6,849 + 292 = 7,141; net debt to equity 34,774 / 52,606 = 0.66; 46,765 / 41,933 = 1.1. Net income 2023-2025 365 + 17,117 + 18,254 = 35,736. Valuation: year-end 2025 market value 261.26 bn / net income 18.254 bn = 14.3; free cash flow 2025 16,472 - 4,112 = 12,360; 12,360 / 365,090 = 3.4%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: sales 65,011 - 31,335 + 32,893 = 66,569; net income 18,254 - 9,506 - 5,575 = 3,173. EPS guidance midpoints (5.00 + 5.15) / 2 = 5.075; (5.04 + 5.16) / 2 = 5.10; (2.66 + 2.76) / 2 = 2.71. Protection from 2026: 2043 - 2026 = 17 years; 2028 - 2026 = 2 years. Year-end P/E = market value / net income: 147.55 / 4.442 = 33.2 (2015); 162.31 / 3.920 = 41.4 (2016); 153.30 / 2.394 = 64.0 (2017); 198.69 / 6.220 = 31.9 (2018); 231.56 / 9.843 = 23.5 (2019); 206.96 / 7.067 = 29.3 (2020); 193.59 / 13.049 = 14.8 (2021); 281.30 / 14.519 = 19.4 (2022); 276.26 / 0.365 = 757 (2023); 251.65 / 17.117 = 14.7 (2024); 261.26 / 18.254 = 14.3 (2025); 365.09 / 3.173 = 115.1 (TTM). Return on average equity 2025: 18,254 / ((52,606 + 46,313) / 2) = 18,254 / 49,460 = 36.9%. Gross profit 2025 65,011 - 16,382 = 48,629; 48,629 / 65,011 = 74.8%; royalty 792 / 16,382 = 4.8% of cost of sales. Keytruda increase 2021-2025 31,681 - 17,186 = 14,495; sales increase 65,011 - 48,704 = 16,307. US sales 36,510 / 28,480 - 1 = 28%. Pharmaceutical margin 2021 30,977 / 42,754 = 72.5%. Livestock less companion 3,295 - 2,273 = 1,022 (2021); 3,896 - 2,458 = 1,438 (2025). Prevnar 6,494 / Vaxneuvance 825 = 7.9. Animal Health 2025 6,354 against Keytruda franchise Q2 2026 8,366 - product and segment totals, growth and royalties. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Merck's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, results releases, the Bristol Myers Squibb, Pfizer and Zoetis 10-Ks and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  8. ReportedIn the second quarter of 2026 Capvaxive sold $184 million, up 42%, while Vaxneuvance fell 35% to $148 million.
    Merck second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - vaccine and Animal Health sales. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedMerck attributes its 42% second-quarter increase primarily to launch uptake in several international markets, particularly in Asia Pacific and Europe, as well as in the United States.
    Merck second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - sales by product and pipeline highlights. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedCapvaxive's growth, 42% in the second quarter of 2026, is the figure to follow; if it slows below 20% within two years, the adult market will have settled with Merck in a minority position.
    Merck second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - vaccine and Animal Health sales. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026