⚠ Seventy Cents of Every American Card Dollar Goes to VisaModerate threat

Mastercard (MA) — threat to the moat

In the United States Visa carries more than twice as much card spending as Mastercard.

Mastercard is second in the country that sets the rules for both networks. In 2025 cards on the two networks carried $9.986 trillion of American purchase volume, of which Visa carried $7.028 trillion and Mastercard $2.958 trillion1; the Nilson Report puts Visa's share of the two at 70.38%2. Including American Express and Discover, Mastercard's share of the four networks was about 25.8%3.

US purchase volume on the two networks, 2025Visa $7.028tn — 70%Mastercard $2.958tn — 30%Nilson Report, 2025
Seventy-thirty in the home market.

The gap is not closing quickly. Visa's volume grew 6.8% and Mastercard's 6.3%4. In the second quarter of 2026 Mastercard's United States gross dollar volume grew 5.5%, against 8.5% in Europe and 13.9% in Latin America5.

Being smaller in the largest market costs money in two ways. Banks choosing a single network for a large portfolio tend to choose the larger one, so Mastercard must bid more to win. And when United States legislators consider forcing competition on credit routing, it is Mastercard that would have to fight for a share of transactions it currently carries by default.

The home market matters out of proportion to its share of revenue. The United States produced about 29% of Mastercard's net revenue in 20256, but it is where the rules for both networks are written, where the largest issuers sit, and where the most profitable credit portfolios are negotiated. United States gross dollar volume was $3,220 billion in 2025, up 6.0%7, against $7,413 billion elsewhere8. A network that is second at home has to win abroad to stay even, and it has: outside the United States its volume grew faster in both 2025 and the latest quarter9.

The number that would sharpen this threat is Mastercard's United States volume growth against Visa's. Two or three years in which the gap widens would say the larger network is winning the portfolios that matter.

References
  1. Third-party estimateIn 2025 cards on the two networks carried $9.986 trillion of American purchase volume, of which Visa carried $7.028 trillion and Mastercard $2.958 trillion; the Nilson Report puts Visa's share of the two at 70.38%.
    The Nilson Report, Mastercard and Visa Cards in the US - 2025: purchase volume $7.028 trillion on Visa and $2.958 trillion on Mastercard. — 2025 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  2. Third-party estimateIn 2025 cards on the two networks carried $9.986 trillion of American purchase volume, of which Visa carried $7.028 trillion and Mastercard $2.958 trillion; the Nilson Report puts Visa's share of the two at 70.38%.
    The Nilson Report, Mastercard and Visa Cards in the US - 2025: purchase volume $7.028 trillion on Visa and $2.958 trillion on Mastercard. — 2025 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcIncluding American Express and Discover, Mastercard's share of the four networks was about 25.8%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Mastercard's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Gross payment network assessments 2025: 11,029 + 12,021 + 15,930 + 1,018 = 39,998; rebates 20,522 / 39,998 = 51.3%; 2024: 10,245 + 10,181 + 13,602 + 936 = 34,964, 17,629 / 34,964 = 50.4%; 2023: 15,182 / (15,824 + 15,182) = 49.0%; 2022: 8,794 + 6,597 + 10,646 + 766 = 26,803, 12,445 / 26,803 = 46.4%; 2021: 10,476 / (11,943 + 10,476) = 46.7%. Q2 2026: 5,997 / (5,451 + 5,997) = 52.4%; gross assessments growth (5,451 + 5,997) / (4,945 + 5,997 / 1.22) - 1 = about 16%. Old basis: 3,980 / 13,647 = 29.2% (2015); 8,315 / 23,616 = 35.2% (2020). Rebates 20,522 / 3,980 = 5.2 times; net revenue 32,791 / 9,667 = 3.4 times. Rebates against gross revenue 2025: 20,522 / (32,791 + 20,522 = 53,313) = 38.5%; Visa 15,751 / (40,000 + 15,751 = 55,751) = 28.3%; difference 20,522 - 15,751 = 4,771. US share: 2,958 / (2,958 + 7,028) = 29.6%; four networks 2,958 / 11,463 = 25.8%; Amex and Discover 11,463 - 9,986 = 1,477, 1,477 / 11,463 = 12.9%. Outside the US 100% - 29% = 71%. Cross-border assessments 12,021 / 3,498 = 3.4 times; cross-border volume fees 3,512 / 5,606 - 1 = -37.4%; 12,021 x 0.37 = 4,448. Services share of net revenue: 5,404 / 15,301 = 35.3% (2020); 6,941 / 18,884 = 36.8%; 7,879 / 22,237 = 35.4%; 9,274 / 25,098 = 37.0%; 10,832 / 28,167 = 38.5%; 13,315 / 32,791 = 40.6% (2025); 3,826 / 9,277 = 41.2% (Q2 2026); payment network 19,476 / 32,791 = 59.4%. Growth: payment network 11,943 / 9,897 - 1 = 21%, 14,358 / 11,943 - 1 = 20%, 15,824 / 14,358 - 1 = 10%, 17,335 / 15,824 - 1 = 10%, 19,476 / 17,335 - 1 = 12%; 19,476 / 9,897 = 2.0 times; services 7,879 / 6,941 - 1 = 14% (2022), 13,315 / 5,404 = 2.5 times; growth gap Q2 2026 20% - 10% = 10 points; acquisitions 3 / 23 = 13%. Operating margin: 5,078 / 9,667 = 52.5% (2015); 6,622 / 12,497 = 53.0% (2017); 7,282 / 14,950 = 48.7% (2018); 9,664 / 16,883 = 57.2% (2019); 8,081 / 15,301 = 52.8% (2020); 12,264 / 22,237 = 55.2% (2022). Headcount 39,800 / 13,400 = 3.0 times; net revenue 32,791 / 12,497 = 2.6 times (2017-2025). Capital spending 489 + 726 = 1,215; 1,215 / 32,791 = 3.7%; free cash flow 17,648 - 1,215 = 16,433; returned 11,727 + 2,756 = 14,483, 14,483 / 16,433 = 88%. Net debt 30 June 2026: 2,459 + 22,184 - 11,291 = 13,352. Diluted shares 906 / 1,137 - 1 = -20.3%; EPS 16.52 / 3.35 = 4.9 times, (16.52 / 3.35)^(1/10) - 1 = 17.3% a year; net income 14,968 / 3,808 = 3.9 times; net revenue (32,791 / 9,667)^(1/10) - 1 = 13.0% a year. Year-end P/E (market value over net income): 109.31 / 3.808 = 28.7 (2015); 160.24 / 3.915 = 40.9 (2017); 301.24 / 8.118 = 37.1 (2019); 353.05 / 8.687 = 40.6 (2021); 334.33 / 9.930 = 33.7 (2022); 483.30 / 12.874 = 37.5 (2024); 512.65 / 14.968 = 34.2 (2025); earnings yield 1 / 31.13 = 3.2%. Litigation provision against net income: 504 / 14,968 = 3.4%; 539 / 11,195 = 4.8%; 680 / 12,874 = 5.3%. Tax: pre-tax income 2025 14,968 + 3,610 = 18,578; (19.4% - 15.6%) x 18,578 = about 706. Amortised incentives 2,098 / 19,476 = 10.8%. Five-customer net revenue 6.9 bn. BVNK 1,500 / 11,727 = 13% of 2025 buybacks; acquisitions since 2020 809 + 861 + 325 + 2,700 + 1,500 = 6,195, 1,500 / 6,195 = 24%. Recorded Future 2,700 / 14,968 = 18%. Commercial gross dollar volume 1,405 / 10,632 = 13.2%. Property, equipment and right-of-use assets 1,168 + 1,135 = 2,303 - revenue mix, margins, geography and competitors. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Mastercard's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, results releases, the Visa 10-K and the Nilson Report; operands shown in the source line.
  4. Third-party estimateVisa's volume grew 6.8% and Mastercard's 6.3%.
    The Nilson Report, Mastercard and Visa Cards in the US - 2025: purchase volume $7.028 trillion on Visa and $2.958 trillion on Mastercard. — 2025 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedIn the second quarter of 2026 Mastercard's United States gross dollar volume grew 5.5%, against 8.5% in Europe and 13.9% in Latin America.
    Mastercard second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - statements, cash flow, balance sheet and operating metrics by region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 30 July 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe United States produced about 29% of Mastercard's net revenue in 2025, but it is where the rules for both networks are written, where the largest issuers sit, and where the most profitable credit portfolios are negotiated.
    Mastercard Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 MD&A: net revenue by category, key metrics, rebates, geography and the five largest customers. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedUnited States gross dollar volume was $3,220 billion in 2025, up 6.0%, against $7,413 billion elsewhere.
    Mastercard fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - statements, cash flow and operating metrics. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedUnited States gross dollar volume was $3,220 billion in 2025, up 6.0%, against $7,413 billion elsewhere.
    Mastercard fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - statements, cash flow and operating metrics. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedA network that is second at home has to win abroad to stay even, and it has: outside the United States its volume grew faster in both 2025 and the latest quarter.
    Mastercard second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - statements, cash flow, balance sheet and operating metrics by region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 30 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026