✦ Latin America and the Alipay+ DealNarrow moat

Mastercard (MA) — the future bets

Latin America is Mastercard's fastest-growing region, and it is also where a free government rail took half the transactions in Brazil.

Latin America is where Mastercard's volume is growing fastest. Gross dollar volume there was $269 billion in the second quarter of 2026, up 13.9% in local currency1, against 8.5% in Europe and 5.5% in the United States2. Over the first half the region's volume was $521 billion3.

Gross dollar volume growth, Q2 2026 (local, %)Latin America13.9%Europe8.5%Asia Pacific, ME and Africa8.4%Canada8.1%United States5.5%Mastercard Q2 2026 results release
Latin America leads every region.

Part of the growth is cash giving way to cards, the secular opportunity Mastercard's strategy describes as cash displacement4. Part is new partnerships. On the second-quarter call management described an exclusive partnership with Alipay+ in Mexico, which it expects to drive incremental transaction volumes5.

The region also shows the other side of the argument. Brazil, its largest economy, is the home of Pix, which went from 1% to 52% of Brazilian transactions in under five years6. Fast card growth and fast growth of a public alternative can happen in the same region.

Currency is a further risk: growth in local currency can shrink in dollars.

The region is volatile in dollars. In the second quarter of 2026 Latin American gross dollar volume grew 24.4% in US dollar terms against 13.9% in local currency7, because regional currencies strengthened; in weaker years the conversion runs the other way. Mastercard's reported revenue captures the dollar figure. A bet on Latin America is therefore also a bet on its currencies, and the local-currency growth rate is the better measure of whether cards are actually replacing cash.

The bet is on the region's cash, not on its card habits. Latin American volume growth staying above 10% while Pix spreads would say cards and public rails are both taking share from cash; a fall toward the world average would say the public rail has started taking share from cards.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Regional volume grew 13.9% in Q2 2026, with a new Alipay+ partnership in Mexico.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Latin America gross dollar volume growth, latest quarter
+13.9% local currency ($269bn, Q2 2026)

The fastest region; a fall toward the world average would say public rails are taking share from cards.

Source: Mastercard Q2 2026 results release ↗
References
  1. ReportedGross dollar volume there was $269 billion in the second quarter of 2026, up 13.9% in local currency, against 8.5% in Europe and 5.5% in the United States.
    Mastercard second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - statements, cash flow, balance sheet and operating metrics by region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 30 July 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedGross dollar volume there was $269 billion in the second quarter of 2026, up 13.9% in local currency, against 8.5% in Europe and 5.5% in the United States.
    Mastercard second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - statements, cash flow, balance sheet and operating metrics by region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 30 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedOver the first half the region's volume was $521 billion.
    Mastercard second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - statements, cash flow, balance sheet and operating metrics by region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 30 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedPart of the growth is cash giving way to cards, the secular opportunity Mastercard's strategy describes as cash displacement.
    Mastercard Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: the network, competition, tokenization, account-based payments and human capital. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedOn the second-quarter call management described an exclusive partnership with Alipay+ in Mexico, which it expects to drive incremental transaction volumes.
    Yahoo Finance / GuruFocus, Mastercard Q2 2026 earnings call highlights (third-party summary of the call). — Q2 2026 · publ. 31 July 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedBrazil, its largest economy, is the home of Pix, which went from 1% to 52% of Brazilian transactions in under five years.
    StoneCo Form 20-F for FY2025, citing the Central Bank of Brazil: Pix's share of the number of transactions rose from 1% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 52% in the first half of 2025, and its share of volume to more than 26%. — FY2025 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedIn the second quarter of 2026 Latin American gross dollar volume grew 24.4% in US dollar terms against 13.9% in local currency, because regional currencies strengthened; in weaker years the conversion runs the other way.
    Mastercard second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - statements, cash flow, balance sheet and operating metrics by region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 30 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026