⚠ Private Banking Revenue Fell 13%Low threat

Goldman Sachs (GS) — threat to the moat

Goldman's private banking revenue fell 13% in the latest quarter as the margin on its Marcus deposits narrowed.

Private banking and lending was the one Asset & Wealth Management line that shrank in the second quarter of 2026. It fell 13% to $689 million, which the firm attributed to "lower net interest margin related to Marcus deposits"1.

Private banking and lending net revenues ($M)2,57620232,88120243,3472025Goldman Sachs Form 10-K FY2025, restated basis; Q2 2026 was 689, down 13%
Growing annually, falling in the latest quarter.

The line depends on interest rates and on what the firm pays savers. Consumer deposits were $208 billion at the end of 20252, and they now sit in this segment rather than in Platform Solutions. When rates fall, the spread on that money narrows.

The quarter had a partial offset. The firm said the lower margin was "partially offset by higher average Marcus and private bank deposit balances"3. Private banking and lending was $638 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $689 million in the second4, so the fall from $789 million a year earlier did not deepen through the half.

The line's first half was $1,327 million56. That would put a full year near $2.7 billion at the same pace7, below the $2.8 billion floor, unless deposit balances keep growing.

For 2025 as a whole the line grew, to $3,347 million from $2,881 million8. Whether the decline continues is the open question. Private banking and lending under $2.8 billion for 2026 would mean the spread business was shrinking faster than the lending grew.

References
  1. ReportedIt fell 13% to $689 million, which the firm attributed to "lower net interest margin related to Marcus deposits".
    Goldman Sachs second-quarter 2026 earnings results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment and line revenues for the quarter and half, earnings, balance sheet, capital, VaR, assets under supervision and the dividend increase - Asset & Wealth Management revenues and assets under supervision. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedConsumer deposits were $208 billion at the end of 2025, and they now sit in this segment rather than in Platform Solutions.
    Goldman Sachs fourth-quarter 2025 earnings presentation and strategy update, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - strategy and firmwide targets, talent, capital management, funding and credit. — FY2025 · publ. 15 January 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe firm said the lower margin was "partially offset by higher average Marcus and private bank deposit balances".
    Goldman Sachs second-quarter 2026 earnings results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment and line revenues for the quarter and half, earnings, balance sheet, capital, VaR, assets under supervision and the dividend increase - Asset & Wealth Management revenues and assets under supervision. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedPrivate banking and lending was $638 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $689 million in the second, so the fall from $789 million a year earlier did not deepen through the half.
    Goldman Sachs second-quarter 2026 earnings results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment and line revenues for the quarter and half, earnings, balance sheet, capital, VaR, assets under supervision and the dividend increase - Asset & Wealth Management revenues and assets under supervision. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe line's first half was $1,327 million.
    Goldman Sachs second-quarter 2026 earnings results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment and line revenues for the quarter and half, earnings, balance sheet, capital, VaR, assets under supervision and the dividend increase - firm results: net revenues, earnings, EPS, returns and costs. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  6. Moat Explorer calcThe line's first half was $1,327 million.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Goldman Sachs' reported figures ($ millions unless stated; calendar years). Growth: net revenues 2025 58,283 / 53,512 - 1 = 8.9%, about 9%; 2022 47,365 / 59,339 - 1 = -20.2%; net earnings 2022 11,261 / 21,635 - 1 = -47.9%, nearly half; pre-tax earnings 21,852 / 10,739 = 2.03 times, about double; compensation 18,906 / 16,706 - 1 = 13.2%; total operating expenses 37,544 / 33,767 - 1 = 11.2%; preferred dividends 876 / 751 - 1 = 16.6%; CEO pay 47 / 39 - 1 = 20.5%; equities 16,535 / 11,549 - 1 = 43.2%; FICC 14,522 / 12,150 - 1 = 19.5%; FICC intermediation 10,271 / 9,318 - 1 = 10.2%; FICC financing 4,251 / 2,832 - 1 = 50.1%; Global Banking & Markets 41,453 / 29,994 - 1 = 38.2%; GBM pre-tax 17,574 / 11,000 - 1 = 59.8%; advisory 4,726 / 3,299 - 1 = 43.3%; underwriting (1,784 + 2,829) / (1,153 + 1,763) = 4,613 / 2,916 - 1 = 58.2%; investment banking fees 9,339 / 6,215 - 1 = 50.3%; 9,339 - 6,215 = 3,124, about $3.1 billion; Q2 2026 pace 3,395 x 4 = 13,580, 13,580 / 9,339 = 1.45; financing 11.45 / 6.03 = 1.90, close to double; intermediation best/worst 19.6 / 15.8 = 1.24; equity underwriting Q2 985 / 428 - 1 = 130%; H1 2026 equities 12,742 / 8,493 - 1 = 50%. Assets under supervision: 4,041 / 3,606 - 1 = 12.1% (six months); 3,606 / 3,137 - 1 = 15.0%; Q2 2026 rise 4,041 - 3,650 = 391 = inflows 230 + appreciation 161; management and other fees 11,538 / 10,415 - 1 = 10.8%; historical principal investments 9.4 - 6.0 = 3.4 billion; alternatives target 750 - 459 = 291 billion, 291 / 4.5 = 64.7, about 65 a year; 291 x 0.58% = 1.69 billion, about 1.7 billion; Shell mandate 40 / 4,041 = 1.0%; AWM ROE 12.5 + 2.3 = 14.8, near 15%. Shares of revenue: GBM 15,520 / 20,338 = 76.3% (Q2 2026), 41,453 / 58,283 = 71.1% (2025), 29,994 / 46,254 = 64.8% (2023); AWM 16,679 / 58,283 = 28.6% (2025), 16,316 / 53,512 = 30.5% (2024), 14,202 / 46,254 = 30.7% (2023), 4,597 / 20,338 = 22.6% (Q2 2026); equities 7,416 / 15,520 = 47.8% of the segment in Q2 2026; advisory 4,726 / 58,283 = 8.1%; GBM pre-tax 17,574 / 21,852 = 80.4%; FICC plus equities 14,522 + 16,535 = 31,057; Q2 2026 financing 1,216 + 3,259 = 4,475; durable revenues 26.3 / 58.283 = 45.1% (2025), 12.2 / 36.546 = 33.4% (2019); GBM assets 1,582,670 / 1,809,320 = 87.5%; brokered and sweep deposits (47 + 34) / 501 = 16.2%; compensation 18,906 / 37,544 = 50.4% of operating expenses; preferred dividends 876 / 17,176 = 5.1% of net earnings; financing against alternatives fees 11.45 / 2.37 = 4.8, about five times. Margins: GBM pre-tax margin 17,574 / 41,453 = 42.4% (2025), 11,000 / 29,994 = 36.7% (2023); AWM 4,127 / 16,679 = 24.7% (2025), 4,865 / 16,316 = 29.8% (2024), 1,763 / 14,202 = 12.4% (2023). Balance sheet and capital: total assets 2,128 / 1,675.972 - 1 = 27.0% (end-2024 to June 2026); equity 121,996 to about 123,000, almost unchanged; deposits 558 / 433 - 1 = 28.9%, about 29%; loans to deposits 261 / 558 = 46.8%, about 47%; JPMorgan deposits 2,559,320 / 501,000 = 5.1 times; CET1 headroom 12.9 - 11.4 = 1.5 points, about 150 basis points; a repeat of the first-half fall 12.9 - (14.3 - 12.9) = 11.5%; basic shares 298.4 / 322.9 - 1 = -7.6%, about 8% fewer; TBVPS 335.49 / 316.02 - 1 = 6.2%; buyback price 935.45 / 984.57 - 1 = -5.0%; first-half ROE 21.7 - 1.7 = 20.0%; Platform Solutions pre-tax losses 783 + 1,047 + 1,989 + 2,175 + 1,075 = 7,069, about $7.1 billion. Valuation: trailing twelve months to June 2026 net revenues 58,283 - 29,645 + 37,565 = 66,203; net earnings 17,176 - 8,461 + 12,258 = 20,973; diluted EPS 51.32 - 25.07 + 38.51 = 64.76; P/E 283,220 / 20,973 = 13.5; P/S 283,220 / 66,203 = 4.28; year-end P/E 263.64 / 17.176 = 15.35 (2025), 179.75 / 14.276 = 12.59 (2024), 125.80 / 8.516 = 14.77 (2023), 128.08 / 21.635 = 5.92 (2021); 52-week high 935.45 / 1,153.99 - 1 = -18.9%, about 19% below; Morgan Stanley gap 308.32 - 283.22 = 25.1 billion; market value on basic shares 298.4 x 935.45 = 279.1 billion. Further: Platform Solutions provisions against revenue (old basis) 1,728 / 1,502 = 115% (2022), 1,135 / 2,378 = 47.7%, about 48% (2023), 1,540 / 2,427 = 63.5%, about 63% (2024); 2021 to 2022 revenue fall 59,339 - 47,365 = 11,974, about $12 billion; Q2 2026 equities less Q1 7,416 - 5,326 = 2,090; AWM revenue 2025 16,679 / 16,316 - 1 = 2.2%; liquidity products 1,065 / 4,041 = 26.4%, about a quarter; AUS year on year 4,041 / 3,293 - 1 = 22.7%, about 23%; alternatives 459 / 2,976 = 15.4% of long-term AUS; private banking and lending H1 2026 638 + 689 = 1,327, x 2 = 2,654, near $2.7 billion; VaR factors before diversification 82 + 65 + 19 + 30 = 196; GBM Q1 2026 12,738 / 17,227 = 73.9%, about 74%; transaction banking and private bank deposits (70 + 101) / 501 = 34.1%, about a third; GBM assets share 87.5%, nearly nine-tenths; EMEA 2025 14,155 / 12,250 - 1 = 15.6%, about 16%; unsecured long-term borrowings 285,500 / 242,634 - 1 = 17.7%, about 18%; JPMorgan deposits 2,559,320 / 2,406,032 - 1 = 6.4%; Goldman deposits 501 / 433 - 1 = 15.7%, about 16%; H1 2026 financing 2,278 + 5,867 = 8,145; Q2 2026 compensation 6,104 / 4,685 - 1 = 30.3%; diluted shares 321.4 / 306.5 - 1 = 4.9%, about 5%; advisory 2025 4,726 / 3,534 - 1 = 33.7%, about 34%; underwriting 2025 (1,784 + 2,829) / (1,677 + 2,521) = 4,613 / 4,198 - 1 = 9.9%, about 10%; debt share of underwriting 2,829 / 4,613 = 61.3%, about three-fifths; wealth channel 1,041 / 862 - 1 = 20.8%, about 21%; CET1 ratio 101,657 / 790,640 = 12.86%; 101,657 / 800,640 = 12.70%, so 10 billion of RWAs costs about 16 basis points; GBM pre-tax Q2 2026 7,499 / 4,075 - 1 = 84.0%; market value 2025 263.64 / 179.75 - 1 = 46.7% - Asset & Wealth Management arithmetic: assets under supervision, fees, alternatives and segment shares. — FY2019-Q2 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Goldman Sachs' Forms 10-K and 10-Q, its earnings releases and presentations, JPMorgan's Form 10-K and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  7. Moat Explorer calcThat would put a full year near $2.7 billion at the same pace, below the $2.8 billion floor, unless deposit balances keep growing.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Goldman Sachs' reported figures ($ millions unless stated; calendar years). Growth: net revenues 2025 58,283 / 53,512 - 1 = 8.9%, about 9%; 2022 47,365 / 59,339 - 1 = -20.2%; net earnings 2022 11,261 / 21,635 - 1 = -47.9%, nearly half; pre-tax earnings 21,852 / 10,739 = 2.03 times, about double; compensation 18,906 / 16,706 - 1 = 13.2%; total operating expenses 37,544 / 33,767 - 1 = 11.2%; preferred dividends 876 / 751 - 1 = 16.6%; CEO pay 47 / 39 - 1 = 20.5%; equities 16,535 / 11,549 - 1 = 43.2%; FICC 14,522 / 12,150 - 1 = 19.5%; FICC intermediation 10,271 / 9,318 - 1 = 10.2%; FICC financing 4,251 / 2,832 - 1 = 50.1%; Global Banking & Markets 41,453 / 29,994 - 1 = 38.2%; GBM pre-tax 17,574 / 11,000 - 1 = 59.8%; advisory 4,726 / 3,299 - 1 = 43.3%; underwriting (1,784 + 2,829) / (1,153 + 1,763) = 4,613 / 2,916 - 1 = 58.2%; investment banking fees 9,339 / 6,215 - 1 = 50.3%; 9,339 - 6,215 = 3,124, about $3.1 billion; Q2 2026 pace 3,395 x 4 = 13,580, 13,580 / 9,339 = 1.45; financing 11.45 / 6.03 = 1.90, close to double; intermediation best/worst 19.6 / 15.8 = 1.24; equity underwriting Q2 985 / 428 - 1 = 130%; H1 2026 equities 12,742 / 8,493 - 1 = 50%. Assets under supervision: 4,041 / 3,606 - 1 = 12.1% (six months); 3,606 / 3,137 - 1 = 15.0%; Q2 2026 rise 4,041 - 3,650 = 391 = inflows 230 + appreciation 161; management and other fees 11,538 / 10,415 - 1 = 10.8%; historical principal investments 9.4 - 6.0 = 3.4 billion; alternatives target 750 - 459 = 291 billion, 291 / 4.5 = 64.7, about 65 a year; 291 x 0.58% = 1.69 billion, about 1.7 billion; Shell mandate 40 / 4,041 = 1.0%; AWM ROE 12.5 + 2.3 = 14.8, near 15%. Shares of revenue: GBM 15,520 / 20,338 = 76.3% (Q2 2026), 41,453 / 58,283 = 71.1% (2025), 29,994 / 46,254 = 64.8% (2023); AWM 16,679 / 58,283 = 28.6% (2025), 16,316 / 53,512 = 30.5% (2024), 14,202 / 46,254 = 30.7% (2023), 4,597 / 20,338 = 22.6% (Q2 2026); equities 7,416 / 15,520 = 47.8% of the segment in Q2 2026; advisory 4,726 / 58,283 = 8.1%; GBM pre-tax 17,574 / 21,852 = 80.4%; FICC plus equities 14,522 + 16,535 = 31,057; Q2 2026 financing 1,216 + 3,259 = 4,475; durable revenues 26.3 / 58.283 = 45.1% (2025), 12.2 / 36.546 = 33.4% (2019); GBM assets 1,582,670 / 1,809,320 = 87.5%; brokered and sweep deposits (47 + 34) / 501 = 16.2%; compensation 18,906 / 37,544 = 50.4% of operating expenses; preferred dividends 876 / 17,176 = 5.1% of net earnings; financing against alternatives fees 11.45 / 2.37 = 4.8, about five times. Margins: GBM pre-tax margin 17,574 / 41,453 = 42.4% (2025), 11,000 / 29,994 = 36.7% (2023); AWM 4,127 / 16,679 = 24.7% (2025), 4,865 / 16,316 = 29.8% (2024), 1,763 / 14,202 = 12.4% (2023). Balance sheet and capital: total assets 2,128 / 1,675.972 - 1 = 27.0% (end-2024 to June 2026); equity 121,996 to about 123,000, almost unchanged; deposits 558 / 433 - 1 = 28.9%, about 29%; loans to deposits 261 / 558 = 46.8%, about 47%; JPMorgan deposits 2,559,320 / 501,000 = 5.1 times; CET1 headroom 12.9 - 11.4 = 1.5 points, about 150 basis points; a repeat of the first-half fall 12.9 - (14.3 - 12.9) = 11.5%; basic shares 298.4 / 322.9 - 1 = -7.6%, about 8% fewer; TBVPS 335.49 / 316.02 - 1 = 6.2%; buyback price 935.45 / 984.57 - 1 = -5.0%; first-half ROE 21.7 - 1.7 = 20.0%; Platform Solutions pre-tax losses 783 + 1,047 + 1,989 + 2,175 + 1,075 = 7,069, about $7.1 billion. Valuation: trailing twelve months to June 2026 net revenues 58,283 - 29,645 + 37,565 = 66,203; net earnings 17,176 - 8,461 + 12,258 = 20,973; diluted EPS 51.32 - 25.07 + 38.51 = 64.76; P/E 283,220 / 20,973 = 13.5; P/S 283,220 / 66,203 = 4.28; year-end P/E 263.64 / 17.176 = 15.35 (2025), 179.75 / 14.276 = 12.59 (2024), 125.80 / 8.516 = 14.77 (2023), 128.08 / 21.635 = 5.92 (2021); 52-week high 935.45 / 1,153.99 - 1 = -18.9%, about 19% below; Morgan Stanley gap 308.32 - 283.22 = 25.1 billion; market value on basic shares 298.4 x 935.45 = 279.1 billion. Further: Platform Solutions provisions against revenue (old basis) 1,728 / 1,502 = 115% (2022), 1,135 / 2,378 = 47.7%, about 48% (2023), 1,540 / 2,427 = 63.5%, about 63% (2024); 2021 to 2022 revenue fall 59,339 - 47,365 = 11,974, about $12 billion; Q2 2026 equities less Q1 7,416 - 5,326 = 2,090; AWM revenue 2025 16,679 / 16,316 - 1 = 2.2%; liquidity products 1,065 / 4,041 = 26.4%, about a quarter; AUS year on year 4,041 / 3,293 - 1 = 22.7%, about 23%; alternatives 459 / 2,976 = 15.4% of long-term AUS; private banking and lending H1 2026 638 + 689 = 1,327, x 2 = 2,654, near $2.7 billion; VaR factors before diversification 82 + 65 + 19 + 30 = 196; GBM Q1 2026 12,738 / 17,227 = 73.9%, about 74%; transaction banking and private bank deposits (70 + 101) / 501 = 34.1%, about a third; GBM assets share 87.5%, nearly nine-tenths; EMEA 2025 14,155 / 12,250 - 1 = 15.6%, about 16%; unsecured long-term borrowings 285,500 / 242,634 - 1 = 17.7%, about 18%; JPMorgan deposits 2,559,320 / 2,406,032 - 1 = 6.4%; Goldman deposits 501 / 433 - 1 = 15.7%, about 16%; H1 2026 financing 2,278 + 5,867 = 8,145; Q2 2026 compensation 6,104 / 4,685 - 1 = 30.3%; diluted shares 321.4 / 306.5 - 1 = 4.9%, about 5%; advisory 2025 4,726 / 3,534 - 1 = 33.7%, about 34%; underwriting 2025 (1,784 + 2,829) / (1,677 + 2,521) = 4,613 / 4,198 - 1 = 9.9%, about 10%; debt share of underwriting 2,829 / 4,613 = 61.3%, about three-fifths; wealth channel 1,041 / 862 - 1 = 20.8%, about 21%; CET1 ratio 101,657 / 790,640 = 12.86%; 101,657 / 800,640 = 12.70%, so 10 billion of RWAs costs about 16 basis points; GBM pre-tax Q2 2026 7,499 / 4,075 - 1 = 84.0%; market value 2025 263.64 / 179.75 - 1 = 46.7% - Asset & Wealth Management arithmetic: assets under supervision, fees, alternatives and segment shares. — FY2019-Q2 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Goldman Sachs' Forms 10-K and 10-Q, its earnings releases and presentations, JPMorgan's Form 10-K and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  8. ReportedFor 2025 as a whole the line grew, to $3,347 million from $2,881 million.
    Goldman Sachs Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - segment results on the basis restated in the fourth quarter of 2025: net revenues by line, pre-tax earnings, return on equity, average common equity, loans and assets by segment for 2023-2025 - Global Banking & Markets segment results. — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. 25 February 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026