⚠ The Debt Backlog FellModerate threat

Goldman Sachs (GS) — threat to the moat

Goldman's record debt quarter came with a warning that the debt pipeline behind it had shrunk.

The one forward indicator Goldman gives for banking pointed two ways in the second quarter of 2026. The firm said its investment banking backlog increased compared with both the end of March and the end of 2025, with advisory up, but that debt underwriting backlog decreased significantly12.

Debt underwriting net revenues ($M)1,76320232,52120242,82920251,032Q2 2026Goldman Sachs Form 10-K FY2025; Q2 2026 earnings release
A record quarter, a thinner pipeline.

That matters because debt underwriting has been the fastest part of the fee line. It rose from $1,763 million in 2023 to $2,829 million in 20253, and set a record of $1,032 million in the second quarter4.

Debt underwriting had already grown three quarters in a row by June: $589 million in the second quarter of 2025, $811 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $1,032 million in the second5. A shrinking backlog after a record quarter can mean the record pulled deals forward.

Equity underwriting moved the other way, up 84% from the first quarter to the second6. The banking fee line is not one business but three, and in June 2026 two were pointing up and one down.

Goldman gives no dollar figure for its backlog, so the direction is all a reader has. If debt underwriting revenue fell below $2.5 billion for 2026 as a whole, the backlog warning would have been the right one to heed.

References
  1. ReportedThe firm said its investment banking backlog increased compared with both the end of March and the end of 2025, with advisory up, but that debt underwriting backlog decreased significantly.
    Goldman Sachs Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - segment pre-tax earnings and ROE, capital ratios and requirements, investment banking backlog, and the Industry Ventures and Innovator acquisitions. — Q2 2026 · publ. 3 August 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe firm said its investment banking backlog increased compared with both the end of March and the end of 2025, with advisory up, but that debt underwriting backlog decreased significantly.
    Goldman Sachs second-quarter 2026 earnings results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment and line revenues for the quarter and half, earnings, balance sheet, capital, VaR, assets under supervision and the dividend increase - Global Banking & Markets revenue by line for the quarter and half. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIt rose from $1,763 million in 2023 to $2,829 million in 2025, and set a record of $1,032 million in the second quarter.
    Goldman Sachs Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - segment results on the basis restated in the fourth quarter of 2025: net revenues by line, pre-tax earnings, return on equity, average common equity, loans and assets by segment for 2023-2025 - Global Banking & Markets segment results. — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. 25 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIt rose from $1,763 million in 2023 to $2,829 million in 2025, and set a record of $1,032 million in the second quarter.
    Goldman Sachs second-quarter 2026 earnings results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment and line revenues for the quarter and half, earnings, balance sheet, capital, VaR, assets under supervision and the dividend increase - firm results: net revenues, earnings, EPS, returns and costs. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedDebt underwriting had already grown three quarters in a row by June: $589 million in the second quarter of 2025, $811 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $1,032 million in the second.
    Goldman Sachs second-quarter 2026 earnings results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment and line revenues for the quarter and half, earnings, balance sheet, capital, VaR, assets under supervision and the dividend increase - Global Banking & Markets revenue by line for the quarter and half. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedEquity underwriting moved the other way, up 84% from the first quarter to the second.
    Goldman Sachs second-quarter 2026 earnings results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment and line revenues for the quarter and half, earnings, balance sheet, capital, VaR, assets under supervision and the dividend increase - Global Banking & Markets revenue by line for the quarter and half. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026