⚠ A League Table Is a Share, Not a RevenueModerate threat

Goldman Sachs (GS) — threat to the moat

Goldman's 23-year lead in advisory decides who gets the deals, not how many deals there are.

Leading the advisory league for 23 years1 did not stop advisory revenue from falling when deals dried up. It was $3,299 million in 2023, the year the restated series starts, against $4,726 million in 20252. The ranking held; the fee pool moved.

Advisory: rank vs revenueRevenue share rank, 2003-2025#1 every yearAdvisory revenue 2023$3,299MAdvisory revenue 2025$4,726MQ2 2026$1,378MGoldman Sachs Q4 2025 presentation; Form 10-K FY2025; Q2 2026 release
The rank held while revenue swung.

That is the limit of a share moat. It decides who gets the deals, not how many deals there are. And the firm's own forward-looking statement lists the triggers it cannot control, including "the continuation or worsening of the conflict in the Middle East"3.

The second quarter showed advisory revenue falling 8% from the first quarter while the ranking held first in announced and completed M&A for the half45. Quarter to quarter, the fee pool moves more than the rank.

Advisory revenue in the first half of 2026 was $2,872 million, 46% above a year earlier6. The rank did not change between the two halves; the market did.

The firm reported its investment banking backlog at the highest in four years at the end of 20257, which supports the near term. A down year will settle it. Advisory revenue under $3.5 billion with Goldman still first would show how much of the line belongs to the market rather than the franchise.

References
  1. ReportedLeading the advisory league for 23 years did not stop advisory revenue from falling when deals dried up.
    Goldman Sachs fourth-quarter 2025 earnings presentation and strategy update, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - league tables, wallet share and client rankings. — FY2025 · publ. 15 January 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIt was $3,299 million in 2023, the year the restated series starts, against $4,726 million in 2025.
    Goldman Sachs Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - segment results on the basis restated in the fourth quarter of 2025: net revenues by line, pre-tax earnings, return on equity, average common equity, loans and assets by segment for 2023-2025 - Global Banking & Markets segment results. — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. 25 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedAnd the firm's own forward-looking statement lists the triggers it cannot control, including "the continuation or worsening of the conflict in the Middle East".
    Goldman Sachs second-quarter 2026 earnings results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment and line revenues for the quarter and half, earnings, balance sheet, capital, VaR, assets under supervision and the dividend increase - firm results: net revenues, earnings, EPS, returns and costs. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe second quarter showed advisory revenue falling 8% from the first quarter while the ranking held first in announced and completed M&A for the half.
    Goldman Sachs second-quarter 2026 earnings results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment and line revenues for the quarter and half, earnings, balance sheet, capital, VaR, assets under supervision and the dividend increase - Global Banking & Markets revenue by line for the quarter and half. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe second quarter showed advisory revenue falling 8% from the first quarter while the ranking held first in announced and completed M&A for the half.
    Goldman Sachs second-quarter 2026 earnings presentation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - ROE, ROTE, efficiency ratio, Dealogic rankings, AUS by channel, alternatives fundraising and wealth figures. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedAdvisory revenue in the first half of 2026 was $2,872 million, 46% above a year earlier.
    Goldman Sachs second-quarter 2026 earnings results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment and line revenues for the quarter and half, earnings, balance sheet, capital, VaR, assets under supervision and the dividend increase - Global Banking & Markets revenue by line for the quarter and half. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe firm reported its investment banking backlog at the highest in four years at the end of 2025, which supports the near term.
    Goldman Sachs fourth-quarter 2025 earnings presentation and strategy update, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - Global Banking & Markets: league tables, wallet share, clients, financing and intermediation. — FY2025 · publ. 15 January 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026