⚠ Buying Back at 45 Times Forward EarningsModerate threat

GE Vernova (GEV) — threat to the moat

GE Vernova is buying back stock at 45 times forward earnings with cash that is largely customer deposits.

GE Vernova's buybacks are being made at a demanding price. The shares traded at $957.63 on 25 September 20261, 45.68 times forward earnings2, and the company paid an average of $854 in the first half3.

Share price ($)327.79Dec 2024652.36Dec 2025957.63Sep 2026stockanalysis ratios history and quote page
The price almost tripled in 21 months.

The cash used comes mostly from customer deposits: the increase in contract liabilities exceeded operating cash flow in 20254. Spending prepayments on shares assumes the prepayments will keep arriving.

The capital return policy of at least a third of cash generation5 ties buybacks to a cash figure that is itself inflated by deposits.

The dividend is small by comparison. At $2.00 a year the shares yield 0.21%6, and 2025 dividends paid were $275 million against $3,316 million of buybacks7. Almost all of the cash returned goes into the share price rather than to shareholders' pockets.

What would show the risk is a buyback programme continuing into a year when free cash flow falls. If the company buys back stock in 2027 while deposits shrink, it will be paying with money owed to customers.

References
  1. ReportedThe shares traded at $957.63 on 25 September 2026, 45.68 times forward earnings, and the company paid an average of $854 in the first half.
    GE Vernova (GEV) market data - $957.63 at the close on 25 September 2026, market cap $255.05B, 52-week range $530.16-$1,195.94, dividend $2.00, 37 analysts with a $1,237.34 target. — September 2026 · publ. 25 September 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe shares traded at $957.63 on 25 September 2026, 45.68 times forward earnings, and the company paid an average of $854 in the first half.
    GE Vernova (GEV) statistics - trailing P/E 27.41, forward P/E 45.68, P/S 6.17, P/B 21.33, 266.33M shares, enterprise value $246.05B. — September 2026 · publ. 25 September 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe shares traded at $957.63 on 25 September 2026, 45.68 times forward earnings, and the company paid an average of $854 in the first half.
    GE Vernova second-quarter 2026 results release (Form 8-K exhibit) - orders, revenue, segment EBITDA, free cash flow, the gas turbine backlog and slot reservations, data-centre orders and raised 2026 guidance - second-quarter results, orders, backlog and gas turbine slots. — Q2 2026 · publ. 22 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe cash used comes mostly from customer deposits: the increase in contract liabilities exceeded operating cash flow in 2025.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements: income, balance sheet, cash flow, taxes and capital returns. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe capital return policy of at least a third of cash generation ties buybacks to a cash figure that is itself inflated by deposits.
    GE Vernova 2025 Investor Update press release - multi-year outlook raised, dividend doubled, buyback authorization raised to $10 billion, backlog target of about $200 billion by 2028 and Electrification backlog doubling. — December 2025 · publ. 9 December 2025 · source ↗
  6. ReportedAt $2.00 a year the shares yield 0.21%, and 2025 dividends paid were $275 million against $3,316 million of buybacks.
    GE Vernova (GEV) market data - $957.63 at the close on 25 September 2026, market cap $255.05B, 52-week range $530.16-$1,195.94, dividend $2.00, 37 analysts with a $1,237.34 target. — September 2026 · publ. 25 September 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedAt $2.00 a year the shares yield 0.21%, and 2025 dividends paid were $275 million against $3,316 million of buybacks.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements: income, balance sheet, cash flow, taxes and capital returns. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026